[GTO]

A big shout-out to Parrys for preparing these beautiful charts & graphs!

[GTO]

Movers & Shakers

The industry is still bleeding as net sales are at their lowest point since October 2011. For most manufacturers, inventory levels are at an all-time high. Worse still, dealer pipelines are already stuffed. Factory yards are full, the dealer yards fuller and refusing to entertain new supplies from manufacturers. The situation has reached such a stage that several brands have announced a temporary break from production.

It’s noteworthy to mention that utility vehicles (MUVs & SUVs which deliver FAT profit margins) are at their closest point ever of the B2 hatchback segment. UVs are also outselling sedans consistently in the Indian car market. We expect this trend to continue with the imminent launch of compact SUVs such as the Renault Duster & Ford EcoSport.

Here are 3 threads throwing more light on the current scenario:

Kolaveri

Production Halt

D1 Sedans

• The Alto nearly nudges the 22K mark and is back as the No.1 selling car in India by a huge margin. The waiting periods for the Swift & Dzire are nearly wiped out in many parts of the country; while their March – May 2012 numbers were stupendously good, they appear to be unsustainable. Still, it has been a stellar run in June 2012 for the Swift & Dzire. The petrol-only WagonR moves 10,000 copies, quite an accomplishment in the current market conditions. The Ertiga hits a speed breaker and its performance in the coming months will determine whether it’s a "blockbuster" or just a “good performer”. It’s also important to mention that the Ertiga has had zero effect on other MUVs. On the flip side, the 800, A-Star, Eeco (severely hit by petrol prices), Estilo, Grand Vitara, Kizashi and SX4 make up the back of the Maruti grid. That's a long list of poor performers from India's No. 1 car maker.

• A lot of Hyundai’s at the 6,000 – 7,000 mark! The Verna seems to hold its chin high even in adverse market conditions with a stunning 6K run, while the i20 is Mr. Consistency, showing that perhaps a spread-out portfolio of variants (covering many price points & engine options) is the sensible way forward. The i10, once Hyundai’s star performer, is badly hit by the lack of a diesel engine. Santro is clearly being pushed over by the newer Eon. The petrol-only strategy isn’t doing anything for the Sonata (unlike the Superb which sells well with that 1.8 TSI motor)...this is the 4th month in a row that the luxury sedan has been outsold by the more expensive Santa Fe. Time for the Accent to RIP? It’s about time, I say.

• On the strength of UVs alone, Mahindra extends its lead over Tata, noticeably widening the gap in total sales. The Bolero & XUV have an exceptional month, the Scorpio a good one, but the Xylo remains a mediocre performer. Taxi companies aren’t buying, as seen in the Logan’s fall.

• With the current state of fuel prices and the economy, first-time buyers are sticking to motorcycles. The Nano records its lowest figures of 2012. The Indica, Vista & Sumo brought some customers home, although the Indigo & Manza are losing out big-time to newer sedans. Somehow, Tata isn’t able to cash in on its diesel engines & high comfort levels. Sad to see the Aria record such a pathetic month. A great product destroyed by flawed strategy.

• Toyota’s Innova – much like the Bolero – appears to be unfazed by rough times and continues to please the market with its ability to work. Likewise, the Fortuner which is the only Rs. 20 lakh vehicle consistently selling over 1,000 units each month. The Etios sedan has a reasonable month, but the Liva took a royal beating from more contemporary hatchbacks.

• Chevrolet & Ford, both, carve out a bigger slice of the pie as compared to May 2012. The Beat is GM’s star performer, while the face-lifted Cruze is having a good time too. The Figo continues its momentum around the 5K level and there appears to be a little more market interest in the ol’ Fiesta. Except for these cars however, Chevrolet & Ford have nothing else to write home about.

• VW sales are up by about a fifth (from May 2012), yet June is the 2nd worst month in a year for the German brand. The Vento improves its performance in the C2 segment, the new middle-variant no doubt helping. The Polo, on the other hand, doesn’t seem to satisfy the wants & needs of the B2 premium hatch customer. At the luxury end, the Jetta has a sales spike, but the Passat simply isn't able to touch its more illustrious cousin (the Skoda Superb).

• A superb month for Skoda, tough market notwithstanding. The Laura shoots to the top of the D1 segment, while the Rapid records its best month of the year (outshining the more expensive & identical Vento by a noticeable margin). The Superb also reigns at the top of the D2 sedan segment. The Fabia is a write-off though.

• It’s a good month for the Sunny which climbs back to a healthy 3,000 level. Not much else to cheer about at the Nissan HQ as even the Micra is floundering.

• Honda’s Yo-Yo performance is back...June sees it at the bottom of the ladder, just above Fiat. May 2012 was an awesome month for the Japanese brand, but it was clearly stuffing dealer inventories with more than what was necessary. Every Honda car, from the Brio to the Accord, has had a disastrous June 2012. Diesel engines could turn the tide though (Brio Diesel Scoop).

• No new comments on Fiat, Renault or HM. I'll only mention the Duster (being launched this week); with the amount of interest that the compact SUV has generated, it might just change Renault’s fortunes in India.

[GTO]

[GTO]

[GTO]

[shadows123]

Disastrous month for Honda. To be in the same league as Fiat and Renault in terms of sales paints quite a sad picture.

Jazz with more volume than Brio. Maybe Honda should start promoting that

That said,Government should do something to overturn this negative sentiment which is destroying the car market!! Even Swift had a 15pc drop despite huge demand for it.

[KPS]

Hyundai's mix seems to be the best with a good spread across segment. I would believe that HMIL has one of the best margins in the car business. The Verna shows that people like to overall package. My Verna has done 14K and has been enjoyable. The i20 reflects the maturity of the Indian buyer

On the MSIL front I am not able to fathom the sharp fall in Ecco whilst Omni keeps maintaining its numbers. As GTO has has stated it will be interesting to see the Dzire and Swift numbers once the waiting period comes down.

Liva and Etios clearly shows that the Brand Value has limited appeal. Unless they improve upon the interiors big time, I do not see the sales consistently increasing. People are looking at the overall package. When I check with people looking to buy a hatch the Liva hardly comes to mind. Similarly we are seeing a lot of Etios Taxi's in Bangalore which will cause this car to fade in the private segment.

I wounder if XUV and Duster as a combo will start eating into Fortuner on account of the huge price difference, where people would consider as a best compromise option. The global uncertainty could slowly make people compromise and go for value for money proposition in the higher end cars

Cheers

KPS

[amtak]

Wonderful Analysis! Nano is surely hit by the Petrol only model. Its high time Tata's launched its CNG model as Diesel is still a few months/years away.

Optra seems to be phased out already as no cars were sold. New Ford Fiesta seems to have been bought by Emirates (see a lot of them in Nariman Point, behind Trident).

Montero with Zero Sales and Outlander with 10? Mistubishi, please launch the outlander with a diesel unit. It'll change your fortunes.

Ertiga at 5400 is a good number. For petrol models, dealers are quoting 5 months waiting and diesel 9 months.

Mahindra quickly needs the facelifted Verito. Also, about time for the Mini Xylo to enter the arena and blow away the compitition!

Time for Maruti to pull the plug on Estilo (oh please don't! I own one) or launch it quickly with your "rumored" diesel mill. It is a very capable car but disowned by public in the presence of Wagon R.

Aria has lost the battle. Confused pricing killed it; no matter what the corrections are, you are so dead! It is a pity though. Venture is a capable family mover but overpriced! Grande is not having a grand life at TM.

Overall, I feel it is time for many manufacturers to pull the plug on half of its models and invest on newer models.

[bluevolt]

Thanks GTO for sharing the stats with us.

Looks like the Rs. 7.50 petrol hike has severely dented Honda's sales figures especially the Honda Brio/City!

Just look at Brio sales numbers - Just over 600 units as compared to 4500+units last month.

Well that's really a huge setback for petrol car manufacturers!

The damage because of the petrol price hike is simply irreversible!

[girishglg]

Superb analysis of the most awaited monthly thread again! A few points from observation-
1. Important indicators of the very difficult times, the queues for swift cousins have dwindled and the Hondas are stuffed to the brim
2. The petrol price spike has clearly zapped the sales of smaller hatches - Nano, Spark, i10, Brio etc which are essentialy first time buyers who are very sensitive segment.
3. The Verito sales has happened due to private interest coming back being a value diesel sedan while Etios had large orders from cab operators

[Safari_Sid]

Well as expected there has been significant drops in numbers. But I still wont call it blood bath yet. Surprising to see Honda numbers falling so sharply. Tata has not done great either. After you comment that Inventories are stuffed both at dealer and company's place I expect the next month number in similar state as well. Thanks a ton for the most awaited thread every month GTO. Rated 5 stars .

[audioholic]

Almost all petrol cars seems to have taken a severe beating. So a potential customer looks at the Honda city, gets baffled by fuel costs in the future, walks into the hyundai showroom, sees the verna - More equipment, supposedly modern looks, DIESEL. Cuts the cheque. In the end, potential Honda, Maruti customers are going towards Hyundai, thanks to their diesel verna. But why, consistent three digit numbers for the New Fiesta? I thought things would get better after the price cut.

[shadows123]

Originally Posted by Safari_Sid

Well as expected there has been significant drops in numbers. But I still wont call it blood bath yet. Surprising to see Honda numbers falling so sharply. Tata has not done great either. After you comment that Inventories are stuffed both at dealer and company's place I expect the next month number in similar state as well. Thanks a ton for the most awaited thread every month GTO. Rated 5 stars .

Honda released a press statement saying they've stopped shipping temporarily because the market trend isnt good. And that was the reason for the low numbers. Cant blame them though. The petrol price rise killed them!!

[mac187]

It is surprising to see Bolero in Top 5 position. Mahindra have truly done a good job for a company that produces only SUV's. I guess Tata's need to re-look their stratergy for SUV's and Cars alike.

[Masda]

Thank you, as always for a comprehensive monthly sales report! Tough times indeed for the Indian auto industry; perhaps things will pick up after the monsoons but that's just the optimistic me. Closely watching the diesel hatchback segment, Swift continues to be in a league of its own. What with the Beat pipping Figo, albeit marginally. Guess its the right product for these times - 3 cylinder diesel + less expensive (OTR)!

Among petrols, Honda Brio was a real shocker. From 4K+ the previous month to a mere ~600 odd is a steep fall. As far as their diesel is concerned, not sure if it will be a case of too little too late. If not priced sensibly, that is.