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-   -   August 2016 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis (https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian-car-scene/179783-august-2016-indian-car-sales-figures-analysis-5.html)

Omni is used mostly for commercial purposes now. I see a lot of Omnis used as taxis too. Also, it has a good demand in rural market.

I agree.

Adding to that - I see a lot of these used for school children!

Girish Mahajan

Had some time to kill - so thought of calculating the Revenues for all the cars and the OEM's corresponding Revenue Market Share vis-a-vis Volume Market Share.

Earlier I have used the Median Ex-Showroom price to calculate the Revenue - link here (http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian...ml#post3929040).

But, this time around, thought of using the 75th Percentile of all the variants Ex-Showroom price, since recently there were news about that most of the cars sold are higher variants (from Maruti, Hyundai, Toyota, et al).

Good that MS Excel have a formula to calculate the 75th Percentile value, given the range of values as input (PERCENTILE.EXC(<range>, <Percentile value>).

I have used the Avg. Ex-Showroom Price from Carwale.com (instead of Delhi) for all the cars and for all the variants. In the below image, I have also given the Price of Base Variant, Top Variant and their Median and 75th Percentile Price for easy understanding. The revenues are then calculated by multiplying the number of units with the 75th Percentile price to get the total revenue for the car.

Please note that these are just some approximate values and the actual revenues for each car may vary which only the Manufacturers would know. This exercise is solely to find out how the Cars and OEMs will be ranked and whether the actual volumes will convert in to revenues.

I must admit that I started this purely on the back of Innova Crysta's astonishing sales numbers and how much revenue Toyota must be earning from Innova alone.

And as I suspected, Innova is the leader in terms of Revenue followed by another over-priced car - the Creta. Dzire rounded up the Top-3 (but it can be either way w.r.t Creta & Dzire since the difference in revenues are smaller - it can change based on the Variant which is selling more for both cars. But no doubts about the Innova - it has a healthy lead at the top).

Top 25 Cars based on Revenue (calculated based on 75th Percentile of the Avg. Ex-Showroom Price)


1. Hyundai has 3 cars in Top 5, while Maruti has 6 in Top 10.
2. Note that Grand i10, Swift and Brezza are close in the numbers, so these 3 can be in either of these places based on the variants sold.
3. XUV, BR-V and S-Cross moved in to Top 25 while Omni, Eon and Redi-Go moved out of Top 25.

Top 25 Cars based on Sales Volume (and their corresponding Revenue rank)


OEM's Volume Market Share Vs Revenue Market Share


1. As expected, Toyoto's Revenue market share has more than double when compared to the Volume market share and thus making them the 3rd in the Revenue ranking list.
2. Maruti's market share falls down from 47% to approx. 37-38% which is expected due to the volumes in the entry level segment.
3. Tata, Renault and Datsum are the other OEM's to experience fall in Revenue market share when compared to Volume market share.

P.S.: Please note the revenues for the 3 Germans, JLR, Volvo, Porsche and other Luxury car makers are not included, who may have more revenue market share when compared to their minimal volume market share.

Great analysis - something I have been keen on doing. Would be worthwhile if you publish the entire table beyond just the Top 25 models.

Among the Germans, Mercedes and Audi sell 950 and 850 cars a month. Assuming an average price of Rs. 40 lakhs (probably an underestimate), Mercedes sells Rs. 380 cr and Audi Rs. 340 cr

In short Mercedes may be the largest selling German brand (above VW), and Audi sells almost as much as its parent. And VW group with ~ 4.7% revenue market share ranks ahead of Ford and Tata.

Adding on to that. The parcel / courier / small cargo delivery industry uses Omni extensively. This vehicle can be easily modified to create a large cargo volume and that is it's advantage. Also the doors open parallel to body, resulting unhindered movement in/out of vehicle.

Wonderful analysis. This really gives much insight into the scenario.

But, there is another angle to it. The excise duty. If we reduce the excise duty from the 75 percentile, that will give a little more accurate figure of how much the company earning from a brand.

For example, Innova which attracts 30% of excise, (A whopping 5,55,000 based on the 75 percentile value), the net price/vehicle is 12.95 Lakhs.

For the case of DZire, the excise is only 12.5% and net price/vehicle comes to 6.3 Lakhs.

So, the revenue from the brand for these two (minus excise) looks as follows.

Innova - 10656.6 Crores
D-Zire - 9932.6 Crores.

Which are not much apart. Maruti, which sells most of the cars in 12.5% excise duty range has a higher advantage of the net margin on vehicles.

Any thoughts on this aspect?

Good analysis. The ex showroom price is normally inclusive of VAT. In Karnataka that is around 14.5%. I about the Crysta a couple of months ago the vat that was paid was close to around 2.3 lakhs. The ex showroom was 19.80 lakhs. The road tax is then added on to the ex showroom price.
Ideally you should use some kind of average to reduce the VAT and excise duties.
Nevertheless it is time spent well on the spreadsheet. Though the revenues for the companies will decrease by reducing the VAT and excise duties the pecking order is unlikely to change. Well done and thanks.

Your point is valid, but calculation is wrong.

Excise duty is to be calculated on the base price and not on the ex-showroom price.

For example, in innova's case:

Base price + excise value = 18.2lakh
Roughly, 14lakh + 4.2lakh (30% of base price) = 18.2lakh

But of all the ways, it is better to rank them based on the profit they are making.

On a second thought, I find I am wrong here. The success should not be measured on how much greedy you are. The current method of number of units should be the measure of success - an indication of how many hearts you have won.

Here you go -



Exactly - Mercedes & Audi, Probably BMW too would be selling more then what VW would be selling - in terms of revenue. Unfortunately, the model level sales details for the luxury brands are not available in public domain, which could have incorporated in the total calculations.

Thanks for the info - I missed that point.

You meant 1065.66 Cr & 993.26 Cr right?

Also, like @romeomidhun said above, the excise duty is already part of Ex-showroom price, so the calculation should be Factory price + Excise duty = Ex-Showroom price.

To calculate that, we can divide the current 75 Percentile amount with the (Excise % / 100) value.

For example, in case of Innova the new price will then be

1,850,000 / 1.3 = 1,423,076

And the revenue would be 1,171 Cr.

In case of Dzire, the new price will be

720,000 / 1.125 = 640,000

And the revenue would be 1,009 Cr - Innova still lead by more than 150 Cr which is a pretty good amount.

But, Creta loses out more now - new price is 1,380,000 / 1.3 = 1,061,538 and the revenue is just 897 Cr.

This is interesting, let me try to incorporate this calculation and post the results.

My bad. Yes, both of you are right. Also, the sales figures are because of the misplaced decimal point. stupid: Thanks for correcting.

I know a certain family which has been buying Omnis from the time it was introduced in 1984. They just buy a new Omni every 5 years!!!

The reasons:
1> Primary- It can squeeze into narrow lanes(we have many such alleys in north Calcutta) where even a Ritz or a Swift cannot squeeze in!!
2> The oldies with arthritis need to spread their legs while seated. Its only possible in an omni.
3> It's damn cheap to buy and maintain and abuse friendly at the hands of the driver.
4> The max speed in the part of the city where this Omni spends its life is 40KMPH(that too on rare occasions)

They also have a second car but they hate it. Since they have to take the Omni to reach the garage where it's kept. lol:

Dear saion666,

That is very interesting.

Given a choice my wife still prefers an Omni! After our OmniE we have been through Honda City, Honda Jazz, WagonR and now just bought Scorpio - and still her favorite is the OmniE!!

One of the main reasons is the road visibility and the second is the incredible turning radius!

Regards,

Girish Mahajan

For all of you wondering the reason behind the slide in Bolero numbers, here is the news.

Courtesy MotorOctane:

Detailed news over here ---> https://motoroctane.com/mahindra-bol...-price-mileage