[romeomidhun]

Great analysis, Smartcat!

IMO, the following launches can help the respective manufacturers to garner more volumes, though at the expense of cars in the same / neighbouring segments:

SUB-SEGMENT 2 (HATCHES):
The new Santro
A stylish and SUV'ish replacement for Celerio

SUB-SEGMENT 3 (HATCHES):
A modern-looking Toyota hatch to replace Liva
A rear-lifted Ritz priced below Ignis

SUB-SEGMENT 2 (SEDANS):
All sub-4m sedans should have an enlarged 4.25m long version

SUB-SEGMENT 1 (SUVs):
The sub-4m Hyundai 'Kona'
A modern Gypsy
A modern Thar

SUB-SEGMENT 2 (SUVs):
Suzuki international Vitara
An enlarged EcoSport

SUB-SEGMENT 1 (MPVs/MUVs):
A modern replacement for Omni

SUB-SEGMENT 2 (MPVs/MUVs):
A modern replacement for Tavera
A modern replacement for Sumo

SUB-SEGMENT 3 (MPVs/MUVs):
A modern replacement for Xylo (including name)

[Vid6639]

Originally Posted by smartcat

3) One of the reasons for customers not picking up cars from this sub-segment is city traffic and parking woes. Hence, European hatchback versions (Golf/ Focus/ i30/ Corolla etc) of these cars could be introduced because that solves the "size" problem. This is a risk-free strategy because infrastructure for assembly, sales & service of these models already exists, and minimal investment is required to introduce the hatchback variants.

4) If the above idea sounds daft, remember that customers are ready to pick up Rs. 12 Lakhs i20 and Rs. 17 Lakhs Creta. Also, in markets where both hatch/sedan variants are sold, hatch variants are 5 - 8% cheaper too. Entry point can further be reduced by introduction of base variants of Golf/Focus/i30/Corolla hatch powered by a smaller petrol engine. Hatchback starting price of Rs. 13 to 16 Lakhs (sedans: Rs. 16 Lakhs to Rs. 19 Lakhs) could double or triple the platform sales, with very little risk and investment

I have been saying this for a long time now. This segment needs to be explored.

From the i20, customer needs to upgrade to sedan or crossover. There's no luxury hatch between the Baleno/i20 and the A class.

What Manufacturers should seriously look into is filling that gap. The Corolla/Jetta/Octavia/ELantra segment is shrinking as people would either go for crossovers or jump into a higher segment.

Bringing the Golf or i30 or the Focus hatch will bring the price lower by 10% vs the sedan and you can even price the lower trims competitively with smaller engines. A sedan with 1.4L engine is difficult to digest in Octavia or Jetta but a Golf with a 1.4L TSI engine is perfect.

Ford has nothing after the Ecosport except the Behemoth Endeavour. Rather than looking at Focus sedan which is known to be cramped at the back so families will definitely think twice, they can look at the younger gen DINK who want a premium car but don't need the sedan size.

A focus hatch or a Golf will be sweet for such target people and will also appeal to enthusiasts and 30-45 age group.


Another segment where the gap is huge is the 18-25L SUV/crossover. The Tucson is the lone option and even that is 32L on road in cities like Bangalore. What is needed is something in between the Creta and Tucson.

[verma_rahul]

Wow, Smartcat That's one hell of an analysis! Just curious to know what do you do and how did you come with with this?

Pretty insightful, I must say. I am sure auto firms will definitely take away the required insights from this analysis!!

[KiloAlpha]

Originally Posted by Vid6639

...
Another segment where the gap is huge is the 18-25L SUV/crossover. The Tucson is the lone option and even that is 32L on road in cities like Bangalore. What is needed is something in between the Creta and Tucson.

If rumours are correct, your prayers will be answered by the Jeep Compass.

Great topic to be discussing, @Smartcat.

The MUV/MPV sub-segment 3 (Ertiga, Lodgy, et al) I think has huge potential. I think the reason customers who want a 5+2 people mover are turned off is because of the fact that, at that price range, there are truly premium-feeling and stylish SUVs available. Add to that, the ever-more-premium C-segment sedans. While people might need those vehicles, alternatives in the market are just more appealing, and anyway, we have known for quite some time now that customers will look at all available vehicles in that price range across segments and compare.

Renault (not Dacia), GM, Ford, Volkswagen, Nissan all have really good 5-seat and 5+2 MPVs in Europe. If even one of those models comes in to India at the C-segment price range of 10-15 lakhs, it could just expand the segment.

[rrsteer]

Smartcat, you do realize that there are people who charge millions for undertaking such an analysis and you have just did it out of curiosity, propelled by passion. Kudos to you and open knowledge platforms like T-bhp that attract and incentive such a knowledge sharing exercise.

[rajshenoy]

Very good analysis.

I was casually browsing for Electric vehicles this weekend and i dont see much action around. This thread also is an indicator that there is no place for e20. Who needs a new player when no one is interested in E20 itself ??

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by verma_rahul

Wow, Smartcat That's one hell of an analysis! Just curious to know what do you do and how did you come with with this?

I'm mostly a numbers guy and I analyze various businesses for a living.

Originally Posted by rrsteer

. Kudos to you and open knowledge platforms like T-bhp that attract and incentive such a knowledge sharing exercise.

Just in case somebody else wants to do number crunching, I'm attaching the Excel sheet -

opportunities.xlsx

[kthrottle]

A big thank you to smartcat for providing another dimension to the sales numbers. As many people have suggested, companies in KPO domain charge for this type of analytics. Another thing which is evident that Maruti is almost dominating in every sub segment except "SUVS > Sub Segment 2" where in Creta outselling the S-Cross or where they don't have any presence.

[Rajeevraj]

Coincidentally was in a chat with a fellow bhpian about a friend of his wanting a Petrol Automatic SUV (No AMT stuff) under 15L On the Road.

The only choice is the Ford Ecosport and that too is not exactly a proper SUV by definition. Maybe that is a potential area. Proper SUV under 15L- Especially petrol.

[speedmunster]

What I feel is there is an urgent need of Automatic diesels across segments. Manufacturers have really ignored ATs when it comes to diesel cars.

[Dusk Tiger]

Fantastic analysis Smartcat. In my opinion, Toyota should bring the Vios sedan. A good looking sedan from Toyota would sell like hot cakes in India. They can either phase out the Etios or leave it for the taxi market, which is where we can see most of the Etioss nowadays.

[recshenoy]

I read in couple of articles that post GST implementation sub – 4 meter taxation benefit might not exist.

If this happens then manufacturers have opportunity to introduce proportionate looking Sedans , SUVs.
Also, the bigger hatches like Yarris,i25,i30, Golf can be priced competitively.

[BlackPearl]

Superb analysis and insight smartcat! Rated 5 stars and thanks for sharing.

[catchjyoti]

Thanks very much for this superb analysis smartcat

The pie-charts at the end of each sub-segment and the cumulative charts at the end of each segment show the major players at a glance

[landcruiser123]

Lovely analysis.
I wonder why some manufacturers like Honda and Toyota simply don't small efforts- A Jazz with the 1.5 i-VTEC and Vios would fit right in our market.

Honda especially have been very very slow.

Also, what irritates me the lack of variants for AT options. Time for manufacturers to get aggressive in the aspect. I don't expect each and every variant to come with an AT, but top variants shouldn't be left out.

Originally Posted by Rajeevraj

Coincidentally was in a chat with a fellow bhpian about a friend of his wanting a Petrol Automatic SUV

Isn't the Creta an option?

Originally Posted by speedmunster

What I feel is there is an urgent need of Automatic diesels across segments.

Nobody makes automatics for small diesels across all markets. So, at best you're going to get an AMT.