Team-BHP - July 2019 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

No questions, automobile industry in India is bleeding!

However, I notice some specific cars don't seem to be impacted by the market slow down.

1. New Ertiga
2. WagonR
3. And the new prince from Hyundai's kingdom, The Venue.

- It's evident now that Venue hit Brezza very hard. It also gained a chunk from it's own stable but doesn't really matter much.

- XUV300 settled well around that 4.5k+ number and is consistently dethroning Nexon.

- Tata might be worrying a tad bit about the Harrier. With Kia coming in soon we might see more depreciation here.

Rest is history!

The industry stays in deep red. In the meantime...

Fiat is hanging by a thread
Figo sees a major uptick %age wise
Civic loses the D segment king of the hill status to Octavia
Venue is selling well but cannibalizing it's stablemates, as well as taking a bite out of Brezza
Alto sees a major drop, sales transferred to Wagon R?
Wagon R in it's new chubby avatar is the chart topper
Nissan-Renault don't have much to write home about
Skoda may have a small party for topping the mole hill that's D segment now
Why is Harrier sales shrinking every month?
Sad to see a competent car like Yaris dying a slow death
Polo is one of the few cars that posted growth MoM - that too by just changing clothes !

Look closely, look twice - there is not a single C2/D1 sedan in the top 20 !!

The writing on the wall for times to come is unambiguous. The volumes game in the C2/D1 segment is going to come primarily from Crossovers and micro/mini/compact/pseudo/real/whatever SUVs.

The likes of Honda, VW, Toyota are losing out because of their indecisiveness to offer already successful international products or variants in India. For e.g. if the WR-V was available with the same engine and transmissions as the City, I'm sure the Honda would've clocked numbers comparable to Create and Brezza. What to speak of VW's strategy slumber!

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackasta (Post 4634298)

Fiat is hanging by a thread

The company is not Fiat, it's FCA. The Fiat brand is out -- they have said that openly, because it is too expensive to upgrade the engines in current models to BS6 and they have no other models in their international portfolio that they think will work in India. So they are focusing on Jeep. No point looking at Fiat shipments.

Jeep sales have been falling too, but they do have a roadmap for the future.

Many thanks for sharing the numbers. My thoughts:

a) Maruti: No one can justify over 35% drop in domestic volumes. I have said this before and i still keep my words: Maruti is not pushing vehicles and is letting the industry into a free fall. This is being done to arm-twist the government to reduce GST on cars. A few months of pain can help achieve growth for the next few years. This does not mean that the industry is not declining, it is, but Maruti is not doing anything to arrest the decline.

b) Hyundai: Look at decline in Creta numbers. I am sure Venue is cannibalising lower variants of Creta.

c) Tata: Worst numbers in this year. It pains to see Nexon and Tiago doing these numbers but Tata has already said that they are after Inventory rationalisation. I expect them to bounce back in September.

d) Honda: They are literally surviving on Amaze. The Jazz and WR-V nameplates need new life as they are pretty competent products. When WR-V was launched, it was the only vehicle in its segment with a sunroof. Now with almost all competitors offering a sunroof, WR-V looses its USP.

e) Mahindra: XUV3OO bringing in pretty good volumes even after the VFM pricing offered by Venue. I initially though that 3OO will start loosing volumes in a few months but that does not seem to be the case. I think the competent diesel is doing the trick for them. I am sure 3OO has the highest diesel penetration in its segment (after Brezza, which is all diesel).

One more negative factor for the month of August is the unrest in J&K. The state (now UT) contributes ~2% to the industry and with all the action going on, i am sure, volumes will suffer in August (may be September as well).

Relatively new launches doing extremely well:
Venue - 9,500 units in the third month, continuous increase is incredible. But has it taken a bite away from Creta (even Hector and upcoming Kia not helping!)?
Ertiga - 9000+ units. And the new Ertiga (what ever it may be called) will only add to volumes.
Hector - At 1500 units, it is twice that of Harrier (740 units). But then Hector comes in a lot more variants and options. Too early to call. But Halol plant's production is maxed out, at least for the time being.

Relatively new launches doing not so well:
Alturas G4 - has fizzled out at 81 units. Compare it with steady Endeavour (700 units) and rock solid Fortuner (1187 units). Brand and product matter! Infact, Endeavour is closing the gap with Fortuner, and I like it. :)
CRV - it never took off. And will never take off.
Civic - From 2000 units in the first month to 181 units. That's a steep fall. And not surprising at all. Another dud in Honda's stable.
Marazzo - in triple digits now. I feel the product positioning is not clear. It cannot take on something like a Ertiga (price and Maruti factor), nor can it take on Crysta or its own sibling XUV500. Yellow boards seem to be the only saviour.
Harrier - 740 units only, for a flagship product. Starting to wonder if an auto gearbox will actually help sales. If yes, by how much and for how long? Let's wait and see.
Kicks: 132 units. And yawn. :ZZZ:
Captur: 24 units. Jaw drop.

And finally, my favorite M/T ratio. Number of Maruti to Toyota cars sold (i.e., Baleno vs. Glanza) - 10,482/1804 = 5.81. Maruti sells almost 6 times that of Toyota. Even though the pricing is very close. Distribution reach is massive for Maruti (Nexa beats Toyota dealership sales power).