Team-BHP (https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/)

-   The Indian Car Scene (https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian-car-scene/)

-   -   Automotive predictions for 2023 (https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian-car-scene/260514-automotive-predictions-2023-a-2.html)

+∞ to this one.

Thanks for the laugh. I needed it today :D
Pothole and speed breaker freee? Quite possible.
Idiot free? Never!

Jokes apart I have high optimism for more cleaner and greener fuel breakthroughs this coming year.

Hydrogen is very much in the spotlight, around which we have had some interesting as well as exciting discussions
No cite a few

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/techn...el-system.html

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/india...-hydrogen.html

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/elect...ins-india.html

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/inter...ml#post5057338

On the more exotic, or rather against the grain side, we also have compressed bio gas, which makes most sense (in my opinion) for a country like India.

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/india...o-gas-cbg.html

Looking forward to cleaner tech which also packs a punch.
Combined with the new sexy highways coming up, things are indeed poised for long exciting adventures.

Going by the international trend in crude oil pricing, the fuel prices may actually reduce slightly, and also, there are multiple state elections this year.

As we saw with BS6 implementation, automakers were in for a rude shock when the deferral did not go through. I doubt the 6 air bag rule will be deferred.

Tata still does not have a good enough after sales and service network to maintain the sales after the bargain buyers have had their fill. Consistent sales happen only when the cradle to grave experience is good in its entirety. Tata is not that reliable currently. (I say this even though I look at the Altroz and the Harrier with fawny eyes)


I doubt EV tax concessions will be removed, the way GoI is promoting EV uptake, they won't jeopardize any chance for meagre increase in tax income, the sales are a very small fraction of ICE car sales. The probable gain in taxes will be much lesser than the loss of adoption rates of EVs.

Mumbai Goa Highway will be a reality, sure, but at what cost? The roads from Panvel to about Chiplun are said to be almost complete, but the surface conditions are horrible, and as it has been in the making for the past decade (the longest ever highway project in India) the parts that were ready earlier are in a constant state of disrepair. The driving experience will remain horrible till someone actually makes an effort to improve it, and this being Maharashtra, this is highly unlikely.

I was recently looking into car subscriptions, and after comparing it with the western counterparts, I realised that the subscription model is not sustainable in its current form in India. The pricing of the subscriptions is so high, that its almost akin to buying the vehicle in 3 years time, so whats the point of having the subscription model at all. In addition, many subscriptions ensure that the vehicles are speed limited to 80kmph, further building the case against the subscription model in India in its current state.


At some point, as the market size increases, we need to stop comparing market share and just concentrate on absolute numbers sold. Simple maths tells us that to maintain the market share, MS would have to grow at DOUBLE the rate as other manufacturers, which is simply not reasonable. Market share might be falling, but the absolute numbers are in fact increasing as MS sits even more firmly in the value for money segment with multiple variants across body styles and fuel offerings (CNG becoming mainstream)

With all new highways being mandated to get fast chargers, your point definitely makes sense and hopefully will happen. In fact, the government should start taxing ICE 2 wheelers with an additional cess to makes the EV 2Wheelers more attractive. Lets face it, 90% of all 2 wheeler owners do not use the vehicles more than the range that current EV 2wheelers are offering. But in addition to that the government also needs to direct and force cooperative housing societies to be more helpful in setting up personal charging stations for 2 and 4 wheelers.

Honda exit, while not welcome, seems to be on the cards, given their pitiful presence in the new car market. I was looking at the WR-V, but that failed so badly that I couldn't even get my hands on the last piece. A technical success, a commercial failure.

XUV400 - Mahindra dealership is assuring me of a test drive early Jan (Panvel) and I am hopeful your prediction fails :-)

My Predictions

1. Nano comes back in EV avatar
2. Honda introduces e:HEV in City VX
3. Sedans gain more sales volume after the boring cSUV's
4. Suzuki will be testing Jimmy
5. Tata completes Ford Plant take over and employs the erstwhile Ford employees back.
6. Team BHP gets additional 10% users, more work for Moderators.

Honda will launch Civic 2023 for 1 hour and discontinue it due to no sale

I really doubt this, Tiago EV with 20,000 bookings alone will make up for any drastic fall. Then there are many EV enthusiast who are eagerly awaiting non-Tata EVs, so that will also add to the numbers. I am pretty sure there will be no drastic fall in EV sales, at least in 2023.

The concessions likely to be removed are mainly from the state side, which in Karnataka amount to 9% to 14% (i.e. 4% road tax on EVs instead of 13% to 18% for ICE depending on price). On Tiago the impact will be 9%, maybe Tata will forgo any planned hike on introductory price. Nexon price has been hiked far more than this from the introduction with no impact on the growth. Worst case they can do some price cuts to mitigate this for the EV models where sales is slowing down, maybe Tigor EV, but even there the taxi/fleet sales is doing well.

The GST council will re-re-re-redefine the definition of SUV so that the Leyland Dost+ will be treated as SUV and Mahindra ScorpioN a sedan, as per MVD rules.

Mahindra will have to alter their TV commercials catchline to: "Sport Utility Vehicles, Believe us" because their cars are no more SUVs.

Kerala MVD will ban ADAS, power windows, auto-folding ORVMs and all kinds of audio, video and navigation while the car is in motion.

Baiju (of Baiju's) will be the new Twitter CEO

Gadkari will make speedbreaker-sensing bumpers mandatory. New BNCAP program will come to effect. Adani will win a contract to supply crash-test dummies for MSIL.

The steering of MSIL cars will auto-return.

Honda may leave India.

BSNL will launch 5G.

Note: predictions in bold are unlikely to happen; conditions apply.

The most happening area in automotive world is EVs.
1. The available selection of EV options will increase drastically from a user perspective.
2. Battery swapping MAY increase inpopularity if implemented correctly.
3. Govt will come up with some scheme for implementing EV charging in existing apartments.
4. Discoms might come up with separate tariff for EV charging to cash-in on the wave.
5. More discussion and efforts will be put to recycle/repurpose end of life batteries.

1. Hybrids will make a stronger case for themselves - I forsee a major shift to hybrids in India

2. Plug in Hybrid cars may (will?) debut in India

3. Russia - Ukraine war may (will?) end

4. India will be the only bright spot in a gloomy global market

1. Change in tax structures / subsidies for EVs and hybrids.

2. Massive drop in used car prices as supply chains normalise, waiting periods reduce and the used market dealers finish blowing through venture capitalist money.

3. New generation fortuner will be revealed.

4. Citroen re-evaluates their entire Indian business strategy

5.VW, Skoda end up teasing a hatchback based on the Virtus/Slavia as sales slow down

6. Tata will finally get their shit together and sort out the issues on the Harrier/Safari once the waiting list for Mahindra and other SUVs reduce and they no longer have immediate delivery as a selling point. (hopefully)

7. BMW launches next gen X1

8. Mercedes launches next gen GLC

9. Honda tries a last ditch effort to stay relevant

- Maruti's market share continues to stagnate with ups and downs, but see a more decisive dip from the 3rd quarter onwards. More noticeable market share falls will be '24 onwards.
- Mr Bhargava continues to rant!
- Toyota become a controlling stake holder in Suzuki's car business.
- Disappointing sales uptake of Honda's newly launched SUV and questions being asked about the Indian operations viability towards the end of '23. Similar for Nissan.
- Tata overtaking Hyundai to no.2 in sales, in what continues to be a tight contest. Albeit the Hyundai/Kia combo continues to be a strong overall no.2 in India.
- Mahindra will be biting at Hyundai's heels in the sales chart towards the end of '23
- Mahindra start ev bookings but continues to postpone deliveries.
- OLA display their much hyped car and Mr.Agarwal continues to confuse and annoy people. Rs.1k bookings open, thousands book further promoting the hype.

MSIL will bat for lowering crash test speed to 40 kph because" our cities are anyway so congested" according to its eldest statesman. Meanwhile Swift 2023 will lose weight by another 50 kg and boost fuel efficiency to 26kmpl.

Hyundai will make rear seat headrest available only in their Asta + Optional or Corporate
trims.
Honda will offer an "all new " Amaze with 10in touchscreen in their top end models. Meanwhile, the Waiting for Godot ( CSUV) continues.
Renault will offer a 1 litre engine with CVT and, well, 71 bhp on the all- new Triber.
Nissan will outprice its X-Trail , leaving the Magnite as the only option in their showrooms.
I sincerely hope though that things turn out better than what I have mentioned above.

2023 could see the following
1. CNG prices being increased to as much as petrol per unit.
2. People movers from toyota, hyundai and possibly tata too.
3. A segment shocker from Citroen and Mahindra

Lol..+∞ to this one. :)

Give me a pothole or a speed breaker any day!

Was my exact response when I saw the quoted post and then saw you had beaten me to it! lol:

My predictions:
Sedans will die to very low sales numbers
Diesels will sell only in higher utility segment( Fortuner, Crysta), all other small diesels will be killed
Honda will exit, I don't see them launch a crossover( I would love to be proven wrong)
KTM will launch the next gen 390 Duke(current one has been on sale since 2017)
Bigwing will continue to launch products at senseless prices
Maruti&Hyundai will continue to sell and introduce low crashworthy cars
Hero will continue with their testing of big capacity motorcycles
Tata Harrier niggles will continue even with facelift

1. Hybrid vs ICE fight will start
2. Tesla will still see India as a potential market while the homeboy(s) Tata and Mahindra come up with more EV vehicles and dominate the segment.
3. Reliance will start EV charging stations across the country.
4. EV in public LMV transportation will gain traction
5. Maruthi Suzuki will not worry about in NCAP but be a market leader
6. Mahindra will have enough $$$ to acquire Tesla from the booking advances. Waiting period extend upto 2 years.
7. Sub 200CC two wheelers considered as commuter vehicles
8. Honda ADV with the 350 engine priced at 6L
9. RE will have all motorcycles in the J Platform, possibly to death to the 350 mill by making 450 and 650 the long stay
10. Innova will cross 50L OTR and Fortuner at 75L OTR