[vaibhav_a_a]

Silver, and associated ETFs have crashed upto 3% today tracking Harris's losing position in the race to WH. Some factors in the article below -

https://www.business-standard.com/ma...0600157_1.html

I think it will go down further, and debt funds will be impacted too (in short term India debt may not be very attractive, as US debt will likely become more attractive).

In parallel the Hang Seng has fallen too due to Trump's stance on tariffs on China. Expect more China stimuli soon.

Equities, here, OTOH are relatively unfazed.

Reminds me of a Peter Lynch interview I saw not too long ago (old interview) - that elections etc do not impact equities much and investors would do well to not read too much therein. Instead, focus on earnings and how well they are getting compounded (and valuations, of course). The view, of course, seemed quite tilted toward consumption stocks

I'm now wondering if Buffett made a mistake in recent months - he sold heavily speculating on the Harris win and the proposed Capital Gains tax on unrealized income (will try to find source)

[warrioraks]

Originally Posted by vaibhav_a_a

I think it will go down further, and debt funds will be impacted too (in short term India debt may not be very attractive, as US debt will likely become more attractive).

The US bond yields moved up significantly since last night. This essentially means that the market is highly bearish on US debt. The primary reason is everyone now expects US inflation to shoot up which will limit Fed's ability to cut rates.

Originally Posted by vaibhav_a_a

In parallel the Hang Seng has fallen too due to Trump's stance on tariffs on China. Expect more China stimuli soon.

The book 'Chip War' highlights how Trump's maverick attitude led to few unconventional decisions which were a big negative for China in the semi-conductor space. Was surprised to read it but a continuation of the stance is net negative for Beijing. Would be interesting to see whether this can result in some of the FII flows coming back to India.

Originally Posted by vaibhav_a_a

Reminds me of a Peter Lynch interview I saw not too long ago (old interview) - that elections etc do not impact equities much and investors would do well to not read too much therein. Instead, focus on earnings and how well they are getting compounded (and valuations, of course).

One more thing to watch out for is the crypto space. Elon Musk is a big proponent of BitCoin and his support is one of the biggest reasons for Trump victory. As an asset class, it could outperform equity if US starts regularizing it. Although I am still doubtful if governments would be willing to let go of their control on currency!

[vaibhav_a_a]

Originally Posted by warrioraks

The US bond yields moved up significantly since last night. This essentially means that the market is highly bearish on US debt. The primary reason is everyone now expects US inflation to shoot up which will limit Fed's ability to cut rates. !

Thank you I missed this bit. I was factoring in a clear mandate and the general stance of trump of -

- stop bankrolling wars, esp Ukraine.
- raise tariffs on foreign goods - he may impose on even European products

Expected volatility in short term, but US debt to be viewed more favorably in medium term.

Originally Posted by warrioraks

The book 'Chip War' highlights how Trump's maverick attitude was a big negative for China in the semi-conductor space. Was surprised to read it but a continuation of the stance is net negative for China. Would be interesting to see whether this can result in some of the FII flows coming back to India.

Taiwan invasion. Ukraine's partial surrender to Russia. Israel is the only standout but it might be tempered.

Originally Posted by warrioraks

BitCoin and his support are one of the biggest reasons for Trump victory.

It is up 7% in a night and at an all-time high. Expect more ICOs too.

[saket77]

I expect rate cuts faster for more liquidity in the U.S. market. India will have to follow. I believe the U. S. election is good for the markets.

[volkman10]

Originally Posted by warrioraks

---Would be interesting to see whether this can result in some of the FII flows coming back to India.

--

Likely not to change and outflows to continue as China stimulus package is one of the main reasons for the exit and the potential for higher returns from the Chinese market.

[warrioraks]

FII ownership of Indian shares hits 12-year low, dips below 16%

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/bu...-12861007.html

Although DII and retail investors have stepped in big time, this 12 year low does not seem to stem only from China stimulus. There is an overall slowdown in the Indian economy over last 6 months. The concerning part is that there is little acknowledgment from the government with growth projections still pointing to the optimistic best case scenarios.
The harsh fact is that all the growth from 2020 onwards was because of the money printing press in the US. The tech sector in India boomed which led to a significant consumption upcycle. With silent layoffs and less than average hikes in recent past, the bubble did not burst completely but slowly deflated to the current scenario of low demand across automotive, real estate and even FMCG products. Even diesel sales have slowed down.

Most market experts are predicting high single digit or low double digit returns from index going forward. I would agree with them. So unless something changes drastically, we should recalibrate our expectations from the stock market in the near future.

[longhorn]

The lady is hell bent on looting the middle class. Hardly any benefits on IT deductions or rates over the last 10 years. Real taxation has gone up left, right and centre. It's more like your slave out for the government. They are the sleeping partner with guaranteed returns. If anything is left over, you get the crumbs. This was bound to happen sooner than later. It's the resilience of the economy that it was able to hold up until now. If you are in your 20's or 30's and salaried, try to find employment outside of the country.

[digitalnirvana]

Cross posting as we're talking about DXY getting stronger

Hi SmartCat any thoughts on this please?

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shift...ml#post5872323 (Do you play the stock market)

With the USD getting stronger, despite INR getting weaker, the CHFINR pair is losing a lot of value. Its down by 4.5 rupees from peak and seems to be going lower.

[m8002?]

What do the MF houses do with all the SIP inflows when the stock prices are overheated?

My understanding is that they will have to invest the incoming funds as per the mandate and cannot hold them as cash/FDs. Is this domestic SIP flow sustaining the high prices?

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by m8002?

What do the MF houses do with all the SIP inflows when the stock prices are overheated?

My understanding is that they will have to invest the incoming funds as per the mandate and cannot hold them as cash/FDs.

Active funds can and do take a cash position, if they feel the market is overheated. For example, check Quant's Flexicap fund which has 8.76% in cash as per October portfolio declaration.

[SmartCat]

Equity funds can hold upto 35% in cash. They can't hold higher cash % than that because then it will foul with equity/debt MF classification norms from taxation point of view. There is a workaround for that too - they can buy stocks and sell futures - which gives arbitrage fund type returns. The buy stocks part ensures that their equity holdings remain over the 65% threshold.

[warrioraks]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

For example, check Quant's Flexicap fund which has 8.76% in cash as per October portfolio declaration.

Seems Quant got it right. Market's only gone south since last couple of months. Their November disclosures will tell us on whether they bought this crash or still sitting on the sidelines.

Also my understanding is that 8% cash is abnormally high and most AMCs don't do more than 2-3%.

[Naetik30]

Has anyone used InteractiveBrokers to invest in the US stock market? Need some feedback.

1. Is it possible to fund the Interactive Brokers account with funds from US account (Etrade RSU/ESPP account).
2. Do they have a minimum funding requirement? For example Schwabb one international brokerage account needs USD 25000 minimum requirement.

[anandhsub]

Originally Posted by warrioraks

Also my understanding is that 8% cash is abnormally high and most AMCs don't do more than 2-3%.

Parag Parikh Flexicap held 23% in cash at end of October up from 21% at end of September.

[warrioraks]

Originally Posted by anandhsub

Parag Parikh Flexicap held 23% in cash at end of October up from 21% at end of September.

Yes I read this somewhere in the news. The very fact that it was reported in media means it's not normal. In a market with ~40 mutual fund players, we need to look beyond a couple of examples to form a solid opinion.