[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by alpha1

Anyway what's the view on Ukraine War, how long is it economically sustainable for Russia and Ukraine and other nations with vested interest to keep meddling in.

Do we really want to open that wormhole? We had a 119 page, 1784 post thread (Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war) about that, which had to be shut down as things got too heated up. The conclusion was that no one could even agree on anything, not even the basic facts.

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by Jeroen

According to the World Economic Forum:

Source: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/...erhouses-2021/

According to them the top R&D spenders are ranked as follows, using world bank data:

Attachment 2393109

Thanks for this Jeroen. Unsurprising to see Israel up there. The Swiss economy is about 7% pharma, which spends a third of revenue on R&D, so once again quite evident. Interesting to see Austria there, I cannot instinctively think of big Austrian companies.

Innovation and growth have another measure, even if dependent on market sizing.



Admittedly, private markets are an imperfect measure, but this illustrates my point. Why can't Europeans build new companies that can compete globally? Indian and Chinese cos can serve their own markets and grow, but that is not true for Israeli ones. Israel is roughly the same size as any of the 11th to 20th ranked EU countries by population size, but has more unicorns than all of them put together. This data for Israel is quite old btw - more recent data here

[alpha1]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

Do we really want to open that wormhole? We had a 119 page, 1784 post thread (Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war) about that, which had to be shut down as things got too heated up. The conclusion was that no one could even agree on anything, not even the basic facts.

That thread was like a commentary on politics by arm-chair experts.
I am sure the question about Ukraine's economy deserves an answer.

[V.Narayan]

Some members may not like the views expressed in this post. If you choose to respond please do so with your head and not with anecdotal experiences.

Not sure why a thread on economics has taken a recent turn into a thread on Europe bashing. Like a large number of Asians, in my heart, I too share a certain anger towards colonialism and its long list of misdeeds and that gets mixed up with the occasional rudeness or condescending conduct which a brown skin like me deals with in Europe going about my business. But that antipathy should not be mixed up IMHO with what the head sees and assesses. While it is true that Europeans - some of them at least - don't come onto global calls at hours beyond their working, at least at the lower echelon workers stop at 5.00PM sharp and some exploit the protection non-performing employees receive against their employer but to say therefore a continent of a 750 million are all endemically lazy or in a terminal collective decline is a stretch. Having built businesses in 5 European countries I think I can say that with some real experience on the ground.

For us Indians to understand the European way of thinking is difficult coming as we do from our environment of competition, study hard and make your life, scarcity, fight for survival, safe for your future etc, don't depend on the Government for anything, jugaad, be creative to survive, etc. But fact is my businesses in Europe, in the same industry, serving similar customers, doing similar work, turned a significantly higher profit after tax each year than my Indian business unit. So there is some method to their system of working.

Though as a counter point here I will add that Europe is a challenging place, for a small or medium sized brown skin owned business, like mine, to go set up & operate production units. They are not culturally ready for it - 8 production units, 1 service unit and 5 European countries later that is my experience. But even here there is so much diversity. Amongst my own employees at the worker level the Brits were not a hassle and Slovaks and Hungarians were like pulling teeth. At the managerial level the French, yes the French, were the best to deal with {or maybe I was lucky with my senior team} and the sneer of my senior British employees, competent as they were, was always just a millimetre below the surface but they never ever said they will not stretch to meet the deadline. As customers the Germans and the Dutch were superb, the Brits very reasonable, the Ukrainians corrupt with a capital C, and the Scandinavians I simply never understood. Where dishonesty goes I never got hit by underhand business practices in any Western European country except France where it was rampant in a subtle and sophisticated way loaded against the non-French bidder, vendor, customer.

Also grudgingly, despite being an alpha busineswallah {like the alpha male}, I concede that Western Europe's system of balancing a reasonable income, a fair distribution of income, a livable wage for a very large percentage of the population, good & free education and healthcare for all and still be counted in the comity of nations has something worth checking out with a rational unbiased mind. And finally it is reverse racism for us to label all of Europe as one. It is like saying all Asians are {fill in the blanks with your favourite view}. I suspect given Team BHP's tendency of becoming an echo chamber these views coming from a brown skin will be viewed as heresy by some of my fellow Indians.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by alpha1

That thread was like a commentary on politics by arm-chair experts. I am sure the question about Ukraine's economy deserves an answer.

Ukraine's GDP is down 30% or so, but their economy is being supported by Europe/USA. It doesn't hit the headlines as much as HIMARS or other missiles, but part of multi-billion dollar aid package goes into paying salaries of citizens of Ukraine. For eg, healthcare workers alone got $1.7 billion in financial aid
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...rkers-00045325

It is estimated now that Ukraine has 1 million citizens + regular armed forces involved in the war directly. Along with soldiers in frontline, there might be few million involved in logistics, recruitment, healthcare etc supporting the war effort indirectly
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobili...n_Ukraine#2022

So Ukraine's economy will be more or less fine as long as dollars and Euros flow into the country in the form of salaries (including disability pay, death compensation to family and pension payments!)

Russian economy too is not bad because of the way commodity pricing works. If you stifle supply, prices go up. Russia has been raking in big $$$ since they are a major exporter of energy (natural gas, coal, crude oil) and also agricultural products (fertilizers, wheat etc)

[One]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

As customers....

Thank you for sharing your experiences. One new perspective you mentioned is the the "customer" angle.

In my experience, the customers in Europe and US are a lot more disciplined than customers in India. There's a lot to learn from them in terms of how to conduct a business with vendors - it might not be always warm but it is mostly professional.

Off topic: your Dutch experience is surprising to me as I found them culturally closest to Indian customers in one aspect - trying to extract maximum value for minimum pennies.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by One

Thank you for sharing your experiences. One new perspective you mentioned is the the "customer" angle.

In my experience, the customers in Europe and US are a lot more disciplined than customers in India. There's a lot to learn from them in terms of how to conduct a business with vendors - it might not be always warm but it is mostly professional.

The best part of dealing with European customers was receiving your money on time with zero follow up. We provided the usual 30 or 60 day credit but because their commercial-judicial system works so well we simply used factoring to collect most of our money at a nominal discount on Day 3 or 4 from a factoring bank. Also customers planned their aviation service requirements well in advance {3 years in case of Lufthansa!!!} and largely stuck to the schedule. In India the only two customers who planned in advance and stayed true to their dates were the IAF and Indigo Airlines. One reason Europe is able to work at 35 hours a week is because most parts of the commercial-labour-legal-banking system work to plan and with minimum delay and this irons out the collective inefficiencies that we are constantly battling with in India and I say this as a fact despite being a desh bhakt in the fullest sense. It is fashionable to decry a 35-hour week in France {the toiler in me sneers at it} but less easy to understand that within those 35-hours my workers worked with almost no supervision and owned their deadlines. The same Workers Council in France which was a bitch to deal with would own the deadlines. Please don't go away with the impression I am a Europhile just that I am writing from my head.

Off topic: your Dutch experience is surprising to me as I found them culturally closest to Indian customers in one aspect - trying to extract maximum value for minimum pennies.

I don't mind customers who negotiate before the contract because I can walk away and say sorry this does not work for me. My problem was with customers in India, Africa and Middle East who would start re-negotiating after the services have been delivered but before payment is made. KLM were a fantastic customer for me at least.

[lapis_lazuli]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

the Scandinavians I simply never understood.

Mr.Narayan, request to kindly elaborate, in the same context.

I don't own a business, but lead a specialized vertical within a large EU MNC, I am witnessing Europeans opening up and gradually becoming homogeneous in behaviour and work culture. Contrary to popular belief, Brits were never difficult to work with, (south) Italians? C'mon, brother from another mother, Germans or French, again, never a problem and calls during a vacation, isn't such a taboo anymore. But yes, Scandinavians, even I don't understand. Extremely polite, extremely sharp but always indecisive?? Hence the question.

But I think Covid has changed the professional habits within EU ..like I observed, homogeneous.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by lapis_lazuli

Mr.Narayan, request to kindly elaborate, in the same context.

I don't own a business, but lead a specialized vertical within a large EU MNC, I am witnessing Europeans opening up and gradually becoming homogeneous in behaviour and work culture. Contrary to popular belief, Brits were never difficult to work with, (south) Italians? C'mon, brother from another mother, Germans or French, again, never a problem and calls during a vacation, isn't such a taboo anymore. But yes, Scandinavians, even I don't understand. Extremely polite, extremely sharp but always indecisive?? Hence the question.

But I think Covid has changed the professional habits within EU ..like I observed, homogeneous.

My experience is limited to commerce within the civil aviation industry. I can comment only on that and not on the general Scandinavian culture, habits and attributes. So this is all anecdotal experience of one man representing 1/8 billionth of humankind's collective living experience. So please take it with a pinch of salt. Dealing with airlines such as SAS, Wideroe and Finnair was a pain. Iceland Air was not an issue. I got the impression, perhaps wrongly, that for them dealing with the Spanish was a huge culture jump so dealing with an aggressive dark skin like me must have been something worse. The Swedish and Danish counterparts were, in my few interactions, over clever in negotiating. Same with the Lithuanians and the Finns. By some definition Lithuanians and Finns are not strictly Scandinavians though akin to each other. Interesting side observation - in Iceland the men are polite & well behaved and the women aggressive to a point of rudeness almost deliberately so. Just an observation. It didn't, however, stop me liking doing business with Iceland Air. Please don't let my experience prejudice you.

[Jeroen]

Some interesting observations and comments on the Scandanavian and particular Swedish working culture.

Having worked for a Swedish multinational for a long time, I do recognise some of it. Mind you, by and large the Dutch and the Swedes work quite well together in that just about any sort of environment.

The Swedes have a strong culture on informal and consensus driven decision taking. So decision are rarely taken in the formal meeting. But prior to the meeting you need to be part of the appropriate network. And just because a meeting has been formally taken, doesn’t necessarily means everybody will fall inline either. But once there is sufficient level of consensus execution tends to swift and any lost time gets made up very quickly.

In general the Swedes are very informal. Some people who are not used to it find might find that very odd, if not threatening. Certainly seniority, be it age or position counts for very little. And everybody uses first names only. So when the CEO of Ericsson steps through the doors of our HQ in Stockholm the team at reception will call out, good morning Borje!

I always got on extremely well with the Swedes and also other Scandinavian nationals. Of course, this is being part of very multinational global orientated organisation. But a good friend of me works for the Stenaline and has the same experience.

in general it helps if you can just be amused about difference in culture rather than get irritated or frustrated. The better you are in understanding and adapting to different cultures the easier you will make it on yourself. But everybody has their pet hates too, personally working with the French was and is terrible. I have worked with the. In shipping, in the offshore, rocketscience and telecommunication I have the same experience in over forty years working different industries. I will say this for the French though. The French and the Italian were the only nations in the world that allowed a glass of wine with lunch and dinner on offshore rigs. The offshore world has always been a notorious dry world. But I don’t think the Italians or the French consider a glass of wine drinking.

Jeroen

[hondatoyotafan]

Originally Posted by Jeroen

everybody has their pet hates too, personally working with the French was and is terrible.

Jeroen

Personally i worked for a French Consulting MNC and a stint in Paris made them my pet hate too but another assignment in Airbus in Toulouse made me change my opinion completely. Paris brings a bad rep to the French.

[SmartCat]

Pakistan is virtually in default but is being propped up by Saudi Arabia and China. Their foreign exchange reserves are at $6 billion but these are borrowings from their close friends. Essentially, these countries will not allow Pakistan to default (technically). External debt payments are and will be made on time, but with these borrowings. As a pre-condition for these deposits from China/Saudi, these funds are to be used ONLY for debt repayments, not imports.

But Pakistan's economy is in big trouble right now and likely to get worse despite help from China/Saudi:

- Imports of most consumer items are restricted
- Car/CV assemblers have shut down production. That's because component imports are stuck at ports.
- There is raging inflation (25% pa) and threatening to move into hyperinflation stage. Food prices are going through the roof because of the recent mega-floods. Govt does not have much forex to spare for imports to cool down inflation. Meat is getting expensive because animal feed (soybeans) imports are just trickling in.

[v1p3r]

This is an interesting and somewhat accurate article on where we are and possibly where we're headed. We need to get our act together to ensure equitable development. Use archive.fo if you can't access the link below.
https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/...lly-explosive?

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Pakistan is virtually in default but is being propped up by Saudi Arabia and China. Their foreign exchange reserves are at $6 billion but these are borrowings from their close friends.

This has been in the making. I have little sympathy for them as a nation. They got the most fertile and riparian bits during Partition, and until 1980 their per capita PPP income was higher than both India and China. Their relentless pursuit of a hate-filled agenda religious agenda fuelled by petrodollars that politicians looted, is the genesis of this. Failed state and basket case are phrases that are too kind to describe them.

[DigitalOne]

World Bank makes big cut to its 2023 growth outlook, says globe is ‘perilously close’ to recession

The World Bank slashed its 2023 global economy growth outlook to 1.7% for 2023 from its earlier projection of 3%.

The adjustment was led by a significant downgrade to its prospects for the U.S. economy — it now forecasts 0.5% growth from an earlier projection of 2.4%.

The World Bank cut its growth outlook for China for 2023 from 5.2% to 4.3%, Japan from 1.3% to 1% , and Europe and Central Asia from 1.5% to 0.1%.

Source

The Indian economy is expected to grow at the rate of 6.6 percent in fiscal year 2023-24, the World Bank said...

Source

[v1p3r]

A very interesting take on the India growth story, from across the border. Everything we take for granted and think of as the bare minimum is something the Pakistanis can only eye covetously. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2395510/on-india-1

While it ill behoves us to engage in schadenfreude, we must thank our lucky stars. To our west lies an example of 'what could have been'. Whatever our complaints of governance, for the most part we were led nationally by people who had India's best interests in mind, in their own way. My fervent hope is that we continue a similar trajectory over the next few decades until every Indian is assured of a dignified life.