[Samurai]

Technology startups usually have their niche technology working fine, POCs will be impressive. However, the moment their customers ask them to deploy it at 100x and 1000x size, many things fall apart. Volume can demolish the best design, unless scaling was built-in from the ground up. When you are very small, you don't have solve the volume problem. That problem doesn't exist for them. This applies to nations too.

When someone compares India with countries that have less than 1/10th or 1/100th of India's population, that is like comparing a deer with an elephant. Shame on you elephant, check out the nimble deer, how fast it can move... etc.

If we tried to copy methods used in smaller nations, it would not work in India. India needs methods that work across a large population, without resorting to dictatorial and oppressive methods of a communist regime like China.

Then there are cultural factors. Those of us in democratic countries think democracy is the answer to everything. Remember how USA tries to bring democracy to any resource rich poor country. However, not all countries trust democracy. Here is a good explanation:

https://youtu.be/yXOdFMCXXQc

[carboy]

Originally Posted by sunilch

Yes, the correct target should be USD11-12K per capita as that is when we will have a good standard of living for majority of the population.

The target is irrelevant. What's relevant is what is practically possible. 10-11K isn't even remotely possible in 15 years.

[Turbohead]

Originally Posted by kiku007

Race winners spend more time looking ahead at the next corner and not so much at their rear view mirror.

Well said!
This is what matters! I completely agree that we've come a long way and I'm grateful to all the visionaries and leaders who have made this possible.

But that doesn't mean we sit on our laurels and call it a day - we've got to move ahead. We need to move the goal posts. It's absolutely healthy that we have members here who are questioning the state of our country today. Decisions that are responsible for bringing us here need not be effective to take the game forward tomorrow. My biggest gripe with today's leaders and society is that we're expected to be satisfied and that we shouldn't complain. All complainers are tagged anti-nationals which my brain can't comprehend.

In a way Electromotiv is absolutely right - we really have no reason to be proud of where we are in comparison to the rest of the world. We should ideally just keep our mouth shut and look for ways to improve our country and the lives of it's citizens. We claim to be the biggest brains out there but we go to lengths to defend the objections with other achievements without really working on fixing the issues.

Blaming the British, past leaders and what not for our current problems does not solve today's problems or bring progress for tomorrow.

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by carboy

This is the 3rd time I am stating this in the last couple of pages but I am not looking for 1st world or even 2nd world standards.

Currently, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Suriname, Mongoliahave GDP per capita is currently above 4000$. Namibia is near 5000$, Malaysia is 11,000$.

So the prospect of 4000$ in 15 years doesn't really thrill me.

The prospect of a nominal $4k per capita income isn't thrilling to anyone in our position, is my point. It's because we spend more on PPF and accessories for our cars. But that average household income is INR 23k per month, which $3300 annually. For an average household of 4.4 people, this represents a 5.4x increase in income, ignoring the effects of income distribution for the purposes of these averages.

[carboy]

Originally Posted by v1p3r

For an average household of 4.4 people, this represents a 5.4x increase in income, ignoring the effects of income distribution for the purposes of these averages.

Absolutely & that's great.

But you are missing what I was replying to. I was replying to a statement that India's moment in the sun will come in about 15 years when he get to 4000$.

[nakul0888]

Its kind of disheartening to see pretty much everyone looking down on ourselves expecting ourselves to tone down expectations because India has a large population. Everywhere including here its the same attitude " UGHHH LOOK AT HOW MANY PEOPLE WE GOT TO FEED AND TAKE CARE OF". But why is more people a bad thing? We are talking about sentient human beings with power of free will, not bags of rocks or potatoes. Why are we looking down on our population as a burden instead of an advantage? After all the human mind is the most valuable resource ever. Maybe if there is a right set of conditions that allow these folks to prosper they can take care of themselves. Maybe, just maybe there even might be a Dhirubhai Ambani among them and one day he can offer us or our kids good work too. I would say people who look at our high population as an insufferable burden has what is called " the soft bigotry of low expectations".

[jaaz]

Indian economy can easily sustain on its own, because of the hard working population. For many population is a bane, but the same can be turned into boon. Human Resources takes the least amount of investment to turn around. But, still we are not progressing at the desired levels due to the high level of corruption. Take out the treasury control from the Politicians and we can easily grow at more than 10% growth.

Half of our resources are spent on unproductive things. Just by doubling our budget on Education, we can take off like a jet. Sadly, it was reduced to half.

Numbers won't lie, whether you see with right or left eye. Any fiddling of numbers will affect the generations to come. Who needs tax havens? definitely not the right ones. Nationalist means, a guy who won't cheat his country, pay taxes, contribute to the economy etc., and not by pointing fingers at others.

Marketing guys hide the negatives and highlight the positives. But, we should dig into the negatives, so that the fraudsters will not become habitual cheaters.

[digitalnirvana]

Originally Posted by Electromotive

India is a parasite infested, hollowed-out tree. It appears healthy on the outside but is only a storm away from being broken into pieces. And that storm is on the horizon.

Are you advocating for, nay to be more precise are you positively giddy at the prospect of, Balkanization of India?

I respect differing opinions and that's why I won't debate any other point in your post, even though most of it has serious political overtones and is frankly off topic for a thread on economics.

But this specific point has me stumped and I have to ask. You might choose not to reply.

[kiku007]

Originally Posted by Samurai

When someone compares India with countries that have less than 1/10th or 1/100th of India's population, that is like comparing a deer with an elephant. Shame on you elephant, check out the nimble deer, how fast it can move... etc.

What if I place an argument that it is not a case of one deer vs. one elephant but actually 1 deer vs. 1000 deers?

We are asking for providing the right environment and training for the 1000 deers so they all can at least try to achieve their true potential. That's so much better than, retiring to a notion that its an elephant that can't be nimble. It has been proven that different states and cities have developed at different rates.

Originally Posted by Samurai

If we tried to copy methods used in smaller nations, it would not work in India. India needs methods that work across a large population, without resorting to dictatorial and oppressive methods of a communist regime like China.

India is a union of states and the states have enough autonomy and scale to chart their success. Southern states are ample proof of that. A state like TN which doesn't have enough finite/natural resources in the traditional sense didn't give that as an excuse. They developed their human capital to move forward and even that's not enough. There's so much more to do.

Also, talking about democracy, I don't know which other democratic republic has implemented country wide sweeping changes like demonetization and covid lockdowns. IMHO these were dictatorial and oppressive. The success/effectiveness of these changes aside, people pretty much complied. There were no violent riots or protests. It is actually an asset for the government to have such a compliant population.

Originally Posted by nakul0888

Its kind of disheartening to see pretty much everyone looking down on ourselves expecting ourselves to tone down expectations because India has a large population. Everywhere including here its the same attitude " UGHHH LOOK AT HOW MANY PEOPLE WE GOT TO FEED AND TAKE CARE OF". But why is more people a bad thing? We are talking about sentient human beings with power of free will, not bags of rocks or potatoes. Why are we looking down on our population as a burden instead of an advantage? After all the human mind is the most valuable resource ever.

It is almost like victim shaming. Things like corruption and a self-serving bureaucracy are bigger fish to fry than complaining about population and migration.

[mygodbole]

(Mods: I apologise for the CAPS LOCK, please delete if not adhering to the rules)

THE PERFECT MACHINE IS ONE WITH NO MOVING PARTS.

Economy, India and other nations, depends on too many moving parts. So can we all collectively dial back just one moving part: emotions?

Everyone looks at things from their own point of view (thank you Star Wars II when Obi tells Luke 'truth' is a point of view). There is no right or wrong.

May I request that we constrain ourselves to 'Understanding Economics'? Understand, not judge? Please?

Dhani-waad.

[EV NXT]

It has been 75 years since independence and we have actually gone downhill in most areas other than economic growth and financial administration.

Economic growth has happened inspite of India’s current state because of demographic dividend and financial administration has happened because the government needs money.

75 years is more than enough time for any form of government to bring in discipline and control chaos and if we cannot do it in 75 years we will never do it in another 75 either.

Do we need further proof that democracy is a failure in India? It may not sound politically correct, but unless we resort to tough or even oppressive measures India will not change.

Focus on changing parliament structure to achieve certain questionable goals to protect long term interests shows where the intent lies and will do nothing to improve quality of life of ordinary citizens.

Becoming the most populous country in the world is the biggest endorsement of the lack of control by the powers that be, lack of self discipline by the population and that we need tough measures. Self discipline is alien to Indian psyche and discipline needs to be externally imposed.

Rot in every area from judiciary to civic administration should shout out loud and clear that we are sliding down the rabbit hole at speed.

While size is an issue and is now almost an excuse for not being able to control our population and bring in discipline in any area, how many more years do we need to bring India back on track? Will we change in another 100 years or in another 750 and what is the assurance that we will?

None.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by EV NXT

Becoming the most populous country in the world is the biggest endorsement of the lack of control by the powers that be, lack of self discipline by the population and that we need tough measures. Self discipline is alien to Indian psyche and discipline needs to be externally imposed.

That fact that we had a huge population growth implies that economic growth since independence was weak (or unbalanced). That is, there is positive correlation between low GDP growth/weak economic opportunities and high population growth.

Here is the Top 5 states with the highest population growth in the last decade:



Basically highest population growth (in absolute and percentage) comes from the BIRARU states, which have low economic opportunites.

Conversely, the lowest population growth is from states that have high GDP growth, comparatively higher human development metrics and economic opportunities



Now this is applicable to countries too -> population growth is high in Africa & South Asia (where economic opportunities are lower), while low in Western Europe/North America/Japan/Australia etc (where economic opportunities are higher).

So why this correlation? It is quite simple actually -> There is less economic opportunities in a region actually means there is low literacy rate. And when the literacy rate is low, population is dependent on farming or construction for sustenance. Both these factors contribute to population growth.

India does not need to do anything out of the ordinary to reduce population growth. Improve literacy rate, put significant percentage of young population into college and create economic opportunities that is not dependent on farming/construction etc.

[EV NXT]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Conversely, the lowest population growth is from states that have high GDP growth, comparatively higher human development metrics and economic opportunities.

So how come this does not apply to Ladakh (lowest population growth, low GDP growth and where agriculture is the main component of GDP), Manipur, Odisha, A&N islands & Meghalaya - states with low GDP growth and low down on the list?

Originally Posted by SmartCat

India does not need to do anything out of the ordinary to reduce population growth.

If so, why haven’t we done it for 75 years and instead allowed the opposite to happen?

[am1m]

Originally Posted by EV NXT

If so, why haven’t we done it for 75 years and instead allowed the opposite to happen?

I thought that's exactly what we've been able to do, haven't our overall fertility rates dropped? It'll take time for the overall population to stabilize, but the growth rates are certainly slowing down.

In most of our families we must have seen the obvious - my grandparents had 8 children, my parents had 2, I have 0 (most of my friends have 1).

Yes, it's still unequal between states, and very unequal across socioeconomic segments, but it will improve. And I'm no blind believer in government advertisements either, but I certainly think it's all down to the efforts at rural healthcare centers and education. It will take time, I've accepted that and am taking joy in the fact that it is happening.

[d.w.w.]

Originally Posted by Stribog

Data consumption was some 3 GB / user, it is now around 140 GB per user.

How exactly did Reliance Jio kill the telecom industry? Fun fact, data rates in India are amongst the lowest in the world. I would agree to this line of thinking if our data rates were inordinately high, but the reverse has happened

Speaking from my personal experience here. Before Jio arrival my parents (and relatives above 50s) were very happy with a feature phone and a full talk time plan. For a year they will recharge for may be 500rs and was enough for their needs. They really never cared about data. But once Jio came in, most of them shifted to Jio and to smart phones (due to 4G limitation). Now all of them are smart phone addicts, and more importantly mobile data addicts. They cant think of spending their free time with out using mobile phone. (a major chunk of the population is like that and this is why you see the data usage going up). Now for every month they recharge for close to 300 or 400.

Now what happens with time is that they get addicted to this like drugs. After Jio came in most small operators shut shop or merged and we are left with just 4 operators, and 2 of them may shut operations soon. Then we will be left with a duopoly and knowing the data addiction, they can charge how much ever they want and customers will still buy it.(rates are already going up) Customers who once praised Jio for free and cheap data can only dream of cheap data anymore.

Now in my case, I don't use much mobile data or make too many calls, there is no proper plan that fits my use. I always end up picking up a plan that is more than what I need, the only other option being disconnection and that is not possible since everything is now tied to a mobile number and we cant even make transactions without a mobile connection to receive OTPs.

Originally Posted by Stribog

Not just data but the concept of paid calls outgoing is also dead. It's amazing that we pay lesser for our monthly telephone (and broadband) bills than 5 years ago and still get exponentially more data and calls. That's the opposite of the market being killed.

This is doing more bad than good. Everyday, when I am on the road I see at least 20-30% of the road users (riders+ drivers+ pedestrians) on phone violating traffic rules on broad day light. Since calls are free they don't care about the costs anymore and tend to use it everywhere. Last time I hired an Ola auto, the driver was looking down and riding the vehicle, initially i thought he might have some eye issues, but when I looked what he was doing, he was watching videos on his mobile while driving. We had to ask him to stop and concentrate on what he was supposed to do.