[JLS]

Originally Posted by sukhoi30

...snip...
Best way to understand the chronology is to look at the RBI notifications issued to banks on a regular basis. These notifications are all available in their website at https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/NotificationUser.aspx and very much in the public domain.
...snip...

This gives some indication about the strategizing and planning before this seemingly sudden move.
Unless until somebody else goes thru the list and sequence of RBI notifications and is able to point out some notifications contradictory to the whole move - this post from sukhoi30 is a good argument against detractors of demonetization.

[VKumar]

Originally Posted by JLS

I do not know who this gentleman is and what is his claim to fame

Sir, with due respect, would like to present a couple of words about the said author.

Ruchir Sharma is an investor, and has written widely on global economics and politics. As Chief Global Strategist and head of the Emerging Markets Equity team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, he manages over $25 billion in assets under management.

Source

Suggesting 4% tax on black money
I find this self defeating because it will never encourage anybody to pay taxes - because amnesty involves paying only a fraction of tax than originally due!

IMHO there is a bit of difference between what is being presented and how is it being interpreted here. If today I am telling anyone "You got an Alto? I drive a Land cruiser". That doesn't mean I am suggesting him to buy a Land Cruiser.

Let me quote that specific part of the article which is not any speculation but an open fact of what has been done:

There is also a better way to downsize the black economy , which Modi's government tried but with underwhelming results. Earlier this year, it offered a tax amnesty and imposed a punitive tax of 45%. The result: Indians came forward to declare assets worth less than $10 billion. Contrast that to Indonesia's recent amnesty , which imposed a tax of just 4%, and drew out $300 billion in hidden wealth * reportedly including $30 billion declared by a son of former dictator Suharto. Of course, such a move in India would not deliver an instant populist punch and would entail the hard work of marketing the benefits to the masses.

Putting a 4% value is impractical going by our regular tax slabs but what I can interpret from the above paragraph is that; "In India, an exorbitant percentage of tax was kept in the amnesty scheme. What this has resulted in, is less than expected number of people coming forward to declare some income/assets. India didn't needed to have a 4% tax rate but something lower than 40% would have resulted in a better turn up from the side of people. Maybe keeping a lower rate of tax in the amnesty scheme would have resulted in say more than double of the wealth declared as compared to what is declared in the amnesty scheme. That indeed would have been more beneficial".

[bluevolt]

Can anyone confirm me if I can deposit cash in any of the branches of my Bank or I have to visit my home branch only?

For ex - my salary account is in South Delhi and I wish to deposit in one of the branches of ICICI bank in North Delhi.

Do we have any sort of restrictions in this regard? I hope it is the case with all banks?

[freedom]

Originally Posted by bluevolt

Can anyone confirm me if I can deposit cash in any of the branches of my Bank or I have to visit my home branch only?

You can do that from any branch in India, not just within your city/state.
Some banks do have restrictions to the amount you can deposit from remote branches. I think it's 20k per day for IDBI. Such a limit may or may not exist for ICICI. Best to call up and check.

[carwatcher]

I have an HDFC ATM just outside my apartment entrance and I am seeing it deserted since past 2 days. On enquiring the security guard was informed that it was loaded yesterday morning for the last time and the cash got over yesterday afternoon itself. I was anyway not going to withdraw cash but still I felt that the Govt is having some shortage as claimed by the opposition parties and was feeling kind of angry at the Govt. But then a thought came to my mind that maybe the Govt is prioritising the cash supply at distant or rural areas which are also suffering shortage and that thought kind of calmed my nerves. Any info as to why the ATMs are not being refilled with sufficient cash and is the Govt and country has entered a critical stage of some 7-10 days of the demonisation scheme after which it would be seen as to whether this scheme is successful or not.

Its really funny as well as sick to see the opposition parties are also revising their strategy wrt attacking the Govt rather that supporting it. Even if they don't support but refrain from making useless statements would do public and the Govt big good.

[falconion]

Originally Posted by carwatcher

I have an HDFC ATM just outside my apartment entrance and I am seeing it deserted since past 2 days. On enquiring the security guard was informed that it was loaded yesterday morning for the last time and the cash got over yesterday afternoon itself.

There is definitely cash shortage. I have about 12 ATMs around my area within 2 km radius and all of them were empty. Traveled further away and still dint find any ATMs that had cash. Morning queues at Banks and ATMs are still long. Hopefully all this gets sorted out soon.

[diyguy]

I guess I am lucky to have an ATM in an office with only about 250 or so employees. Was sad today that the ATM had cash and no takers. I had run out of debit cards to use to withdraw as well!! The reason for cash availability was a refill close to 6pm and many colleagues had already left for the day. The ATM is being refilled 6 days a week. Today we noticed that the notes were really old (100s) and some also had tape across the middle. Noticed one very old color combination of a note that had purple and green combination from a long time ago. I think the RBI is circulating stock that may have been slated for incineration, to ease the shortage. The tape across many of the notes did cause the ATM dispenser to go into a tizzy once when it took about 2 minutes to dispense one lot as it kept recounting (whirring start/stop) before it finally ejected the money.

[carwatcher]

Two thoughts that prove your point automatically came to my mind after reading your sensible post.

1) We have just seen a long-running amnesty scheme which was kind of partly successful but still some people have the audacity to demand another such scheme after struck by Demonisatiton. At the same time it also reflects how seriously we take the word of our Govt and for which the Govt itself is to blame.

2) There was a dialogue in the movie Krantiveer and I have seen it written behind many trucks which goes like this, '100 meiṅ se 99 be-imaan, phir bhi Mera Bharat Mahaan'. No offence intended.

Originally Posted by asingh1977

Everyone has the opportunity to be honest, do they exercise it...? It is not that they will be put in jail for being honest..? When it is actually diametrically polar in nature. But do all Indian's follow this, NO. Plain and simple. [/b]

[perty]

Originally Posted by diyguy

I guess I am lucky to have an ATM in an office with only about 250 or so employees. ...Today we noticed that the notes were really old (100s) and some also had tape across the middle. .

That's a scary view of whats coming next. I hope they are not damaged enough to make potential receivers refuse to accept them.

There really is a dire shortage of lower denomination notes, contrary to the picture being painted by the authorities. There are 10 ATMs in a 1 km stretch near my home. 7 of these have not been open for business since November 9th. The remaining 3 are getting some cash infusion because they are located adjacent to the bank branch. The 2 ATMs in the office campus are dead since Nov 9th.
I've discovered newer ATMs, mostly in the past week because now I make a daily pilgrimage to multiple ATMs on my way back from office at night (which is normally 11 PM) hoping against hope to find cash in them, only to be shooed away by the security guards. This weekend was the only time I was able to get two 2000 rs notes, one each on Saturday and Sunday and it took about an hour on both days.

Family members who visited banks during normal working hours were unable to exchange old notes/withdraw money from account beyond 2000rs (forget the daily changing limit from RBI, the branches cant give more than one 2000rs note per person because they dont have the cash). This happened at Kotak bank and also at State Bank of Mysore, so its not a PSU versus private bank problem. The 2000rs notes are worthless because nobody is able or willing to give change for them. They stay in the wallet only for emotional support. Nobody seems to know of any place where 2000 rs notes are accepted without having to make a purchase of 2000. The petrol pump guy refused to part with 50rs change when the tankful costed me 1950 and he instead asked me to top up till it hits 2000.

Hopefully it all settles down soon and shows some real quantifiable benefit in the long run.

[sgiitk]

Have you also seem the circular from the RBI warning people against writing on the new 500 and 2000 notes. If marked they cease to be legal tender. I will try and find the poster and then put it here.

[diyguy]

Source whatsapp - Food for thought on Demonetization :

This reminds me of Sheep who cheered when their leader promised them a blanket each.

Till one sheep asked, "Where will the wool come from?"

[lambuhere1]

Not sure if it is posted.

For easy check on ATM Cash availability, this appears to work well

https://atm.mapshalli.org/

[speedmiester]

Originally Posted by diyguy

Source whatsapp - Food for thought on Demonetization :

This reminds me of Sheep who cheered when their leader promised them a blanket each.

Till one sheep asked, "Where will the wool come from?"

Ya, but until now, the past leaders were just taking the wool from the sheep without giving anything back right?

[asingh1977]

Thanks, for the reply, Sawyer. Some more responses from my side:

Originally Posted by Sawyer

I notice a lot of anger about dishonesty in your post; all I suggest is that it is directed at the wrong target. Indians have been oppressed by Rajas/Nawabs/Zamindars, followed by the British Raj and then, after independence by a succession of Indian governments/bureaucrats that have all dealt dishonestly with them.

It has been ~70 years ago we got independence. The societal observations I quoted, are people in the age groups which never even saw the British Raj, or actually faced the direct ramification. Nor have they felt the zamindare hegemony. If we take the average city dweller of an age: ~40; they were thus born ~30 years after the Raj exited. And if I bake in 10 years of zamindare, then these people have had 20 years to make do - well. It is almost one generation which has lived in the free world.

It is basically called moving up in life: materialistically + ethically. India has failed to do so, for the latter. OK, if you put in the contiguous corrupt political rule, then India has had 70 years of operational spite (and its subsequent downstream affects), but these 70 years have been at the meta-level for most Indians. Were their daily lives actually hampered, to inculcate an intrinsic dishonest gene? What about the NRIs who move abroad. Do they not transfer money using Hawala channels to India and horde black cash in lockers (after RE sales), and jump ship across the seas..? It is really cool to reap the tangible benefits of an open / free economy (ie: be successful), but remain morally and civilly rotten! And say to ones self, my politicians are corrupt so I can: constantly lie to people, not give taxes, and be a wicked soul.

All of the above is really not anger: It is what I have accumulated living in India all my life, observing people and their mannerisms. Like an ominous deluge seeping in.

Originally Posted by Sawyer

What Indians are is what Indians have been forced to become, to deal with what has been dealt to them. THAT is what we have to understand.

You cannot cure a cheater by becoming one yourself. That is what I feel. There is absolutely no justification for the hordes of wealth people have been accumulating all these years. I hope this exercise puts a subconscious fear in people not to horde 2000 notes. They may get cancelled out again, after 12-15 years. 12-15 years is a low quantum for a horde-cycle. But Indians being Indians, we will devise new methods to utilize black wealth. A spring cleaning of the house, cannot change the spirit within the 4-walls!

Originally Posted by Sawyer

Otherwise, I believe that Indians are only as dishonest as people from any other country in the world - no more than
that and in the villages, maybe less.

Well, my stand on the above is apparent with my posts. So will not repeat.

Originally Posted by Sawyer

As to your second sentence, I don't understand; what do you mean by "purged out from the centre outwards"? Are you referring to the centre of the average Indian, or the government at the centre?

Average Indian. Sorry for not being clear.

[diyguy]

Originally Posted by speedmiester

past leaders were just taking the wool from the sheep without giving anything back right?

Time will tell what is given back. I am not sure yet what we have got back from this leader in the past 2 years...

On a separate note there were many discussions on legal tender and I see on the news that the government is now permitting use of old notes by farmers to buy seeds. This sort of reactive patchwork indicates lack of foresight and planning to tackle this mammoth exercise.