[blackwasp]

This thread is for the discussion of the Covid-19 vaccine only. For other discussions on the Coronavirus, please head over to this thread (The Coronavirus Thread).

When will we get the vaccine?

A vaccine would normally take years, if not decades, to develop. Researchers hope to achieve the same amount of work in only a few months.
Most experts think a vaccine is likely to become widely available by mid-2021, about 12-18 months after the new virus, known officially as Sars-CoV-2, first emerged.

That would be a huge scientific feat, and there are no guarantees it will work.
But scientists are optimistic that, if trials are successful, then a small number of people - such as healthcare workers - may be vaccinated before the end of this year.

It is worth noting that four coronaviruses already circulate in human beings. They cause common cold symptoms and we don't have vaccines for any of them.

Source

When will an antidote against Covid-19 finally become widely available? The answer to this question may eventually be found this month as a handful of coronavirus vaccine candidates near the end of late stage clinical trials. At least two vaccine frontrunners — Pfizer and Moderna Inc — are set to release late-stage and Phase 2 results this month.

While experts have said vaccines were likely to reach the general public in the March-April 2021, drugmakers have been more ambitious with their calculations, with some firms like Moderna Inc eyeing the emergency-use authorisation route to launch their shots by year end. In fact, Pfizer may also file for US FDA approval of its vaccine this month itself, Bloomberg reported.

Source

Indian companies testing vaccines.

Covaxin, the coronavirus vaccine being developed by Bharat Biotech in collaboration with the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), has been cleared for the third phase of clinical trials.

The Hyderabad-based vaccine maker had applied to the Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI) on October 2, seeking its permission to conduct Phase 3 trials for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.

The firm in its application said that the study would cover 28,500 subjects aged 18 years and above and would be conducted in 19 sites - including Delhi, Mumbai, Patna and Lucknow - across 10 states.

Besides, Bharat Biotech, an indigenously developed vaccine candidate by Zydus Cadila Ltd is also in Phase 2 of human clinical trials.

The Pune-based Serum Institute of India, which has partnered with AstraZeneca for manufacturing the Oxford COVID-19 vaccine candidate, is also conducting Phase 2 and 3 human clinical trials of the candidate in India.

Source

India is a major supplier of vaccines globally, and its manufacturing capacity could be useful for the world for potential Covid-19 vaccines. Several MNCs are talking to Indian manufacturers to see if their vaccines can be made here, Gagandeep Kang, vice-chair, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (Cepi) said, adding that there’s reason to be optimistic as “data emerging from clinical trials says a vaccine is feasible”.

Globally, there are 230-odd programmes looking to create Covid-19 vaccines, with 130 companies being in a reasonably advanced stage. Of this, around 10 have already started clinical trials. In India, over a dozen companies are working on vaccines.

“We have a long way to go. But we are on the right track, and we are moving as fast as possible — faster than what we thought was possible six months ago,” Kang said at a Harvard Business School webinar on ‘Science, Business & Vaccine Development to Combat the Pandemic’.

Source

How much $$$ the govt is earmarking for the vaccine.

The Centre has set aside nearly $7 billion (approx Rs 51,000crore) to vaccinate India's 1.3-billion people against Covid-19, reported Bloomberg quoting people with knowledge of the matter.

The Modi government estimates an all-in cost of about $6-$7 (roughly Rs. 450-550) per person in the nation of 1.3 billion, the people said, asking not to be identified as the details are private.

The money provisioned so far is for the current financial year ending March 31 and there will be no shortage of further funds for this purpose, they added.

The government is said to have estimated two injections per person at $2 (Rs. 150) a shot.

Source

[deep_bang]

Great short summary.

I always wondered and continue to wonder about the costs involved and how the companies who have invested but are not among the first to develop the vaccine will fare. I mean, let's look at the top few - AstraZeneca, moderna, sinovac from china, pfiZer, our own bharat biotech, Zydus cadilla and a few others.

Now what will happen to the rest once the vaccine is ready from the above set? Aren't the above set of companies enough to supply to the rest of the world?

Remember manufacturing is a different problem altogether. That is anyway covered in a big way by serum institute of India and several other manufacturers.

I am talking about research to find the vaccine and costs involved and the motivation to NOT abandon the effort midway because there are other frontrunners now.

[srini1785]

COVID 19 VACCINE BY JUNE 2021

Kiran Manjumdar shaw , Chaiman of Biocon , gives a realistic time estimate for COVID 19 vaccine in this article.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/busin...c59LEwzDJ.html

The main points laid out are simple.

1. This is an adult vaccination program unlike polio or other immunization programs which are child only. This is a headache since some adults behave worse than children.

2. The storage of vaccine is at -80 deg C , so supply chain for refrigerated units is a problem , especially rural areas.

3. It is unlikely to be a single shot vaccine , 2-3 subsequent booster doses may be needed.

4. It would be a butt / arm injection after all. No nasal inhalation stuff. So people who are afraid of syringes need some coaxing. You better watch out if you are visiting any Govt hospitals for vaccinations. Those staff nurses are notoriously short tempered. Nothing against nurses.

5. It is highly likely that the vaccines are prioritized like :

1st round : Doctors / Medical staff ( fully understandable)
2nd round / Parallel 1st round : Netas / VVIP's ( We have to understand , no choice )
3rd round : You / me and our families.

6. May cost around 400-500 Rs , although , for Sheegradarshana , you could get a jab for 3000.00 if your purse permits.

All above are pure speculations now but IMO, very likely to happen. So bye bye to COVID only by Q3 -2021.

[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by srini1785

It is highly likely that the vaccines are prioritized like :

1st round : Doctors / Medical staff ( fully understandable)
2nd round / Parallel 1st round : Netas / VVIP's ( We have to understand , no choice )
3rd round : You / me and our families.
All above are pure speculations now but IMO, very likely to happen. So bye bye to COVID only by Q3 -2021.

Anyone really believes the people in the number 2 category will wait till category 1 is vaccinated? They will be certain to get it way before doctors and nurses. On the second point, no vaccine may ever be available. The virus is an influenza virus and mutates often. So just like the flu, you would need new shots each year if a viable vaccine ever comes.

[Sebring]

My friend occupies a very senior role at a Vaccine Major. Testing has undergone huge challenges. There was one setback where a patient developed fluid in the spine, and another - recently - where the patient died. Both these instances were widely reported in the press. So it is safe to estimate two years, for a proper working vaccine to come out

[anb]

Originally Posted by blackwasp

When will we get the vaccine?

Another important question is who will get the vaccine. What should be the priority of the government?

[Zen2001]

As of now, according to a survey India, 61% don't want to take the vaccine whenever it becomes available. As more time goes by (till June 2021), and more doubts creep in about safety (long term CNS effects) and efficacy (due to viral mutations), expect this number to go up even higher. I'm already of the opinion (since July infact) that this vaccine will probably never even be necessary when it's available for mass distribution.

[AZT]

Originally Posted by Zen2001

As of now, according to a survey India, 61% don't want to take the vaccine whenever it becomes available.

This survey does not sound legit. If a vaccine is proven to be safe, there is no reason why anyone should say no. IIRC, we already have vaccines for Polio / Measles / Mumps which we have mandatory for kids so this is something for adults.

The key word above is 'Proven to be safe' which is what we need to know without doubt. A lot of responsibility also falls on Social Media to immediately debunk any conspiracy theories that may pop up (eg. Bill Gates wants to put a chip in everyone through vaccines etc). As long as there is no fake news, people should agree to the vaccine.

[Aravind_M92]

The COVID-19 vaccine sure is a huge center of controversies and debate! There still aren't any concrete results for the trial of vaccines. With WHO contradicting facts every other press meet, it really has become a huge dilemma on whom to trust!
By far the most acceptable theory for the virus that it affects the endothelium (inner lining of body surfaces). The virus destroys the endothelium explaining loss of smell to be the first to go. The olfactory cells regenerate explaining the anosmia lasts for a day or two. Fever can be attributed to immune response against the virus. The lung endothelial tissue mainly the pnuemocytes which produce the surfactant have more affinity. Thus attributing to the lung symptoms and doctors presuming it was similar to ARDS (fluid filling into the alveoli) and treating them with ventilatory support. Since it affects all the endothelium, it causes its destruction, where it can be regenerated, regenerates and where it cannot it is replaced by fibrous (scar) tissue. The need to be drugs developed which prevent the virus attachment to the Endothelium.

Now coming to vaccine trials, a viral vaccine depends of the sub viral particles which can mount an immune response but for the COVID the subparticles aren't that effective in mounting a response thus making vaccine development a nightmare. Even if the vaccine comes into the market, the results are sure rushed instead of the actual process. Some state Govts are even considering to give out the vaccines to the health care personnel (not sure if the government has the vaccine and planning on controlled phased release so that demand is not explosive of the vaccines or giving false hope to healthcare personnel (just as the extra pay was promised ) or using the most vulnerable group for the trial!). These are just my views on the COVID issue and hopefully providing these basic stuff doesn't become a major election manifesto. All the pharmaceuticals are in the rush for developing the vaccine and drug for vaccine and hopefully the come out with proper effective results.

The government is also doing sero survey to detect immune response in the general public to see if there is cross immunity (a possibility of herd immunity just like Polio). But the fact that the immune repose doesn't last (with history of reinfection in the same affected person), the results don't seem promising.

Till then Face masks and hand washing the vaccine and the drug. I survived through the worst phases safely without getting affected just following those two strategies

[Eddy]

Are we talking of vaccines that prevent or the ones that cure Covid-19?

[DCEite]

Originally Posted by Eddy

Are we talking of vaccines that prevent or the ones that cure Covid-19?

Vaccines don't cure a disease. They only prevent it.


By the way, why don't Indian government dont show interest in Russia's Sputnik Vaccine ?

There are hardly any reports of any adverse events associated with this vaccine and it seems to be an effective one too.

[Aravind_M92]

Originally Posted by Eddy

Are we talking of vaccines that prevent or the ones that cure Covid-19?

Vaccines are always used to prevent the disease. They mediate a natural immune response from the body's own. The ones used to cure would be drugs or medicines to help augment or accelerate the immune mounting process. Also immunoglobulins are used as well, which are preformed antibodies injected to give the specific immune response.
The best example would a case of dog bite. The Anti Rabies Vaccine (ARV) is used to help the body mount a immune response while the Rabies immunoglobulin (injected around the wound) gives the preformed antibodies which prevent the further spread of the virus. Hope this helps!

[Starfire]

Being a doctor, a COVID frontline worker and clinical researcher, let me give you a medical point of view.

Vaccines are important; they help prep your immune system for an impending infection. This is done so by introducing the specific organism in a live weakened form (called Live attenuated, Eg: Varicella vaccine for Chicken Pox or MMR vaccine for Measles, Mumps, Rubella), dead form (called inactivated, Eg: for Hepatitis A or Rabies) or in form of the toxin produced by the organism (does not contain the organism itself, Eg: for Tetanus)

Vaccines work by developing antibodies against the said organism causing the disease which gets stored in the long term (Specifically IgG antibodies) and are called for by the body when the actual organism enters the body in the future to cause an infection. Now that being said, this "Long Term" varies from vaccine to vaccine and is different for different disease.
The closest example to COVID19 (belonging to the Coronaviridae family) is another organism belonging to the Orthomyxoviridae family, i.e. Influenza virus (commonly referred to as the "Flu").

Ideally, the Flu vaccine has to be taken Annually and sometimes Bi-Annually, more specifically, every Flu season. India has two Flu Seasons, major peak in January to March and minor peak in August to October, making the Flu vaccine have an average life in your body of around 6 months-1 year. However, the majority of the population does not take the Flu vaccine as mentioned and DOES NOT need to take it. The people who actually need to take it are those belonging to high-risk groups such as patients who are immunocompromised (Eg: Geriatric age group, those who are on immunosuppressive therapy for reasons such as post-transplant or those suffering from autoimmune disease, etc.) or those who are hyper exposed to the virus (Eg: health care workers)

Now from the above logic, when the COVID vaccine comes, don't think that you can take it once and be immune for life. Just like every other vaccine, the antibodies within you will only last for that long (maybe 6 months, 1 year, 5 years? We would know only after the vaccine is made) after which if the body does not see the organism again within it (either by infection or vaccination), it will slowly start diminishing the antibody levels to point where they are still present but in negligible amounts. The important point here is, after that period is over, you can get reinfected again. However, since you still have negligible antibodies in you, your body will have the capacity to make new ones to fight off the disease faster compared to the first time you got infected where you had ZERO antibodies to begin with.

CONCLUSION:

COVID19 is new. We all are getting infected for the first time, hence the big commotion, eventually even though the vaccine comes, we still might get infected someday. We won't become as sick, we'll mostly survive (unless you fall in the high-risk category which puts you at a higher risk). Should we take the vaccine the first time? Probably yes, to prime our immune system to develop our first set of antibodies. Should we keep taking it every season? Eventually not, cause just like the Flu, over time your body will always store some negligible antibodies at your baseline, even when not infected/vaccinated, which will keep you relatively safe (not from getting infected over the long term for which you HAVE TO get vaccinated seasonally, but mostly from an outcome of poor prognosis). And with that soon the pandemic will end (as seen historically), and a bright future will emerge.

Please note, vaccines take time to develop and can only be safe after sufficient long term clinical testing trials. The fastest we made a vaccine till date, was the one for Ebola, and that took 5 years! This time, we may break the previous record and make it possible in 18 months; however, there will always be hurdles of availability. India has a population of 1.3 Billion people, meaning we'll need 1.3 Billion vials of vaccine. In my opinion, take all the vaccine news hyped out there with a pinch of salt. Expect the vaccine to be injected within you no sooner than mid of next year.

[COMMUTER]

The vaccine won't address the core issue of poor nutrition resulting in adrenal fatigue which induces immune deficiency that make us fall for such weak viral infections.

Unless we are able to see through the lies promulgated by the American Heart Association and American Diabetes Association, we can't have any immunity towards any disease. That we are made to cringe about a viral fever with a 99.9% survival rate is a victory for the corrupt media and the chinese. The AHA and the ADA have acted in collusion with the crooked processed food giants to make us gobble up the slow poisons in the name of food and have made us become a slave to the pharma mafia. The vaccine for this weak chinese virus is just another victory for these crooks.

[viscosity]

Originally Posted by COMMUTER

The AHA and the ADA have acted in collusion with the crooked processed food giants to make us gobble up the slow poisons in the name of food and have made us become a slave to the pharma mafia. .

If this is indeed the case, the question which comes to mind is that aren't these folks who are approving such chemicals to be used in foods themselves eating these products ? Aren't someone close to them like their children, family, relatives etc will also be consuming the same food ? Is it that these folks or the riches of the world eat something else altogether (like organic stuff from their own farms ?) whereas we common people buy these products ? I can understand about similar other bad things which are done by greedy people like water, air pollution caused by factories owned by rich guys but I think in those cases they feel it doesn't impact them directly so they may be ok with it but why would they allow something which impacts them also ?