[CarNerd]

From the past few months, Russia has been
building up its military around Ukraine. It wants to force the west to decrease NATO presence in Eastern Europe especially in countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania & Ukraine which it sees as a threat. The reason why Russia is able to show its might now is the successful invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014 which was a part of Ukraine. It is also backing rebel groups in other Ukrainian regions such as Donetsk and Luhansk.

If Russia decides to invade Ukraine over the West's refusal of security guarantees, there will be an economic impact to Europe and to the world to some extent. Russia will be hit by tough sanctions. The first thing to be hit is Russian Gas Supply to Western Europe especially Germany. Even Oil prices which are around $90 a barrel will be hit and might reach $150 thereby reducing GDP growth and fuelling Inflation in India and other countries. The Indian stock market saw a sharp decline from last week over the threat of invasion among others and could fall further. Indian rupee will also be affected and could rise to 76-77 rupees per US Dollar over the next 3 months.

India has already asked citizens to avoid all essential and non-essential travel to and within Ukraine. There are a large number of Indian Medical Students in Ukraine. Diplomatically, India will have to do a tightrope walk between Russia/China and the West. On one hand, India and Russia enjoy historical ties and on the other, India wants to counter China as a member of QUAD along with US, Australia & Japan.

The sanctions on Russia will cause troubles in importing defence supplies from it. The threat of Western Sanctions over the purchase of S-400 defence system could be sooner than later in case India sides with Russia.

What are your views about this crisis? How else can this impact India? What should India do if it has to pick one over the other? Any thoughts?

[Electromotive]

Nothing will happen.

This is all aggressive posturing to prevent Ukraine from siding with NATO and to possibly eke out favors from the west. Russia cannot afford a conventional war and even with China's backing things won't go down well. Unfortunately, India cannot afford neutrality this time and siding with Russia can have undesirable consequences for the economy. Ties with Israel for defense tech have been strengthened over the past 5-6 years so hopefully India can be compliant with Uncle Sam's demand for sanctions.

[thanixravindran]

My 2 cents -

I believe Russia does not intent to 'Invade & Occupy' Ukraine in full as the war mongering news channels show. At max, the eastern Ukraine will come under its formal control (already controlled informally through rebels) and Russia (along with Belarus) will recognize them as Sovereign nations similar to South Ossetia and Akhbazia. This satisfies their goal of achieving the buffer zone with NATO.

Crimea is a completely different case as Russia wanted to preserve its Black Sea fleet and a full annexation is needed.

Knowing this, US under 'Joe' and EU has already given up on Ukraine and will use sanctions as face saver. 'Joe' would not risk another unwinnable war after the Afghan debacle and none of EU care two hoots for Ukraine.

On the impact on Crude prices increase or stock market fall, it will be a short lived impact as yet another sudden dip and things will rebound.

As far as India, as usual it will stay Neutral and condemn/urge for peace and there is no question of backing Russia openly. In the event of Security council vote (India till 2022 will be a non permanent member), I believe Russia will not allow for any resolution to be tabled preventing any vote/visible patterns.

I don't believe US will open another diplomatic front with sanctions over India for S-400 purchase in middle of its battles with China (Trade) and Russia (Sanctions). Branding another democratic country (largest) in the company of 'evils' will be self defeating. So another reason will be 'found' for the waiver which is common in diplomacy, possibly they will extract some concessions.

The biggest concern for India will be how China will behave after the Ukraine crisis blows over. They will be keenly watching on US/EU response to this crisis and will be emboldened to use this as a template to 'push the envelope' with us in the coming summer.

[DIY410]

Main stream media in the US are beating the war drums. Welcome to the information warfare.

Remember WMD of Iraq. The Military industrial complex aka the deep state in the US have more powers then the top person sitting in US.

When the soviet Union collapsed, under Gorbachev. Nato and the then US defense Secretary promised that Nato will not move an inch towards Russia.

Fast forward today Nato is right at the Russian border.

Does anyone remember the Cuban missile crisis. The Soviet union placed nuke capable missiles in Cuba. JFK threatened them with war if they don't remove it. That's how most of the people remember it as.

But unknown to US citizens and rest of the world at that time.(Even today vast majority don't know the real reason) Soviet's put nukes there because the US already put nukes in Turkey and Italy close to the then Soviet union borders which include current day Ukraine. So Soviet response was tit for tat.

So under the secret deal both countries withdrew their nuclear weapons.

But the US after the collapse off the soviet union, took the opportunity to not only expand Nato but place nuclear missiles in Turkey and anti missile defense systems surrounding Russia.

By US doing this, If Russia was attacked by conventional war and when it's very existence is at stake. Any country will use nukes as it last resort. But since US has placed Land and sea based anti missile systems. Russia cannot even use that to defend or launch a retaliatory strike.

Putin first requested the US to not do this in early 2000s. But since Russian economy and even military was at a poor state. Russia was in no position to demand things, let alone request.

So to counter this Putin instructed his country top experts for a solution. After a decade or so, Russia has Hypersonic air, land and sea based weapons which can defeat all known and future anti missile defense shields placed by the US throughout EU.

Putin wanted to be close to the West. But the west forced them to tilt east.

2013 Ukraine president who was elected was taken out by a Coup, the capital building for the brief moment even had the US flags there.
Youtube makes sure all such videos are promptly deleted, but they are out there on other platforms.

Russian warships only blue water port is in Crimea which was under lease by Russia. So now after the coup, we have a US controlled government in Ukraine, which threatens Russia only access to Blue water port.
( the northern side of Russia as vast coast but its always under snow, so there Naval ships cannot move) .
So the access via Ukraine Crimea gives them a military port which is not under snow.

So why is it important for Ukraine to not Join Nato, apart from loosing even more buffer to Nato. If a post Nato member Ukraine where to take back Crimea, it will practically force Nato to be in war with Russia.

Putin first visit to US in 2003, Bush received Putin in white house or at his texas ranch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRYiTmjOoj0

Compare that to BUSH visit to Russia, Putin welcome them at the airport itself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aO2wt_YPKzs

Putin at the G8 back then, look how everyone is friendly. Putin was naive back then.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lK06p5DEbg

Putin now, why because the world shapes him to be like that. When Russia concerns are ignored, when Russia allies are systematically take out by regime change wars Syria, Libya, Venezuela, Cuba

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ClS4zaQC0A

[anjan_c2007]

Both the superpowers are creating a war like scenario. It's more like a psychological warfare involving both the NATO and Russia with Ukraine on the receiving end. There are pro-Russian rebel Ukraine citizens on its Eastern border who are in an attacking mode and have to be contained by the government in Ukraine.

Russia doesn't want Ukraine as the 31st NATO member on its Western border as it feels insecure. The amassing of 100,000 troops plus reinforcements in thousands soon after are to show their military might to the US and also to NATO. The US wants to expand further and fears that if Ukraine is not a NATO member, it may be invaded and annexed by Russia. This had happened with Crimea a few years back. The NATO is hence threatening Russia with severe sanctions to cripple their trade and commerce and ultimately their economy.

Under the severe and high decibels of rhetoric and war cries, the best way to deal with an amicable solution would be to permit Ukraine to declare itself non-aligned and become a buffer state between the east and the west. It can adapt the Swiss model of becoming a neutral state. In fact, Switzerland is not a member of the UN also.

But the superpowers have domestic axes to grind. Biden's popularity rating has plummeted to 20 plus % points and he wants to show his people that he is a tough President. And for Putin, the UK PM is under pressure to quit and Biden faces headwinds from his voters due to his Afghanistan handling and this is the best opportune time for the Russian President to strike a bargain.

The chances of a full scale war are very very remote. So there is no worry on this front. It will be of interest to know how the game ends as no country is in a mood to wage a war at this juncture.

[Capricorn]

Read a very interesting article last week showing what happens on other side of motivated news in media. Couldn't resist to post here. While I don't claim this everything but can't see a reason, it is wrong either.

Please do read before your thoughts. Added few quotes as wind direction.

The Crisis in Ukraine Is Not About Ukraine. It's About Germany

In a world where Germany and Russia are friends and trading partners, there is no need for US military bases, no need for expensive US-made weapons and missile systems, and no need for NATO. There’s also no need to transact energy deals in US Dollars or to stockpile US Treasuries to balance accounts. Transactions between business partners can be conducted in their own currencies which is bound to precipitate a sharp decline in the value of the dollar and a dramatic shift in economic power. This is why the Biden administration opposes Nord Stream. It’s not just a pipeline, it’s a window into the future; a future in which Europe and Asia are drawn closer together into a massive free trade zone that increases their mutual power and prosperity while leaving the US on the outside looking in.

Ukraine is Washington’s ‘weapon of choice’ for torpedoing Nord Stream and putting a wedge between Germany and Russia. The strategy is taken from page one of the US Foreign Policy Handbook under the rubric: Divide and Rule. Washington needs to create the perception that Russia poses a security threat to Europe. That’s the goal. They need to show that Putin is a bloodthirsty aggressor with a hair-trigger temper who cannot be trusted. To that end, the media has been given the assignment of reiterating over and over again, “Russia is planning to invade Ukraine.” What’s left unsaid is that Russia has not invaded any country since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and that the US has invaded or toppled regimes in more than 50 countries in the same period of time, and that the US maintains over 800 military bases in countries around the world. None of this is reported by the media, instead the focus is on “evil Putin” who has amassed an estimated 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border threatening to plunge all of Europe into another bloody war.

On Monday, President Biden held his first joint-press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House. The ballyhoo surrounding the event was simply unprecedented. Everything was orchestrated to manufacture a “crisis atmosphere” that Biden used to pressure the chancellor in the direction of US policy. Earlier in the week, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki repeatedly said that a “Russian invasion was imminent.” Her comments were followed by State Department flak Nick Price opining that the Intel agencies had provided him with details of an alleged Russian-backed “false flag” operation they expected to take place in the near future in east Ukraine. Price’s warning was followed on Sunday morning by national security advisor Jake Sullivan claiming that a Russian invasion could happen at any time maybe “even tomorrow.” This was just days after Bloomberg News agency had published its sensational and utterly-false headline that “Russia Invades Ukraine”.

Full article link - The Crisis in Ukraine Is Not About Ukraine. It's About Germany | The UNZ Review

[Sran]

Originally Posted by anjan_c2007

In fact, Switzerland is not a member of the UN also.

The chances of a full scale war are very very remote. So there is no worry on this front. It will be of interest to know how the game ends as no country is in a mood to wage a war

Switzerland is indeed a member of UN, joined as 190th member in 2002. https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states#gotoS

War will happen, it may not be full scale war but US will definitely supply heavy arms and intel to ukraine's puppet government. US democrats have called in their media dogs cnn, reuters, AP and their likes who are drumming it up. Ukraine is done and dusted. Indian media is amateur and it will be interesting to see how they cover it.

[dragracer567]

For one, India will have to make some very tough choices. The Russians did help us in the past, especially in 1971 but at this point, they are nothing but a economically weak but militarily strong bully akin to our western neighbor. Also, it’s very unlikely that Russia would really assist us against China given how dependent they are on the Chinese. Economically, culturally and politically, India has currently much more in common with the democratic bloc, while its only in the field of defence equipment that Russia seems to be a more important partner.

While the EAM’s comments in Munich that the Europeans didn’t pay as much attention on the Indo-Pacific is true, they still provided support, never dilly-dallied on asking China to follow the rules unlike what Russia is doing now. If we can’t condemn Russia invading its neighbour to acquire its territories, how can we condemn China for their salami-slicing in Ladakh? It’s double-standards!

[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by Electromotive

Nothing will happen unless put-in wants to be assassinated.
This is all aggressive posturing to prevent Ukraine from siding with NATO and to possibly eke out favors from the west. Russia cannot afford a conventional war and even with China's backing things won't go down well. Unfortunately, India cannot afford neutrality this time and siding with Russia can have undesirable consequences for the economy. Ties with Israel for defense tech have been strengthened over the past 5-6 years so hopefully India can be compliant with Uncle Sam's demand for sanctions.

Who would assassinate him? India needs to be neutral as Indian ties with Russia are extremely important. Depending upon the US and alienating Russia would be extremely foolhardy. Why should India, as a sovereign nation, be compliant with the US unilateral sanctions? Is India not an equal nation in the world or is it subordinate to the US?

Originally Posted by dragracer567

For one, India will have to make some very tough choices. While the EAM’s comments in Munich that the Europeans didn’t pay as much attention on the Indo-Pacific is true, they still provided support, never dilly-dallied on asking China to follow the rules unlike what Russia is doing now. If we can’t condemn Russia invading its neighbour to acquire its territories, how can we condemn China for their salami-slicing in Ladakh? It’s double-standards!

The Western nations have repeatedly overlooked blatant abuses by their allies and puppets. Why can’t India do the same?

[Electromotive]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

Who would assassinate him? India needs to be neutral as Indian ties with Russia are extremely important. Depending upon the US and alienating Russia would be extremely foolhardy. Why should India, as a sovereign nation, be compliant with the US unilateral sanctions? Is India not an equal nation in the world or is it subordinate to the US?

No man rules alone. Russia is ruled by oligarchs. Most of these oligarchs are in oil and gas trade and if US-Euro sanctions stop the gas/oil trade the oligarchs lose money and that is enough reason to eliminate put-in. Also, dictators have too many enemies in their ranks and any hint of weakness will result in a coup. Put-in is pushing his luck with these shenanigans.

India's ties with Russia are no longer of any consequence. We buy weapons from Russia because they are affordable for us and even then the deals end up costing a lot more than budgeted for, case in point the INS Vikramaditya. Given the ties Russia has with China, it can even prove to be a liability. We do not know if missile defenses purchased from Russia can be remotely disabled or have vulnerabilities they have revealed to China etc. hope you get the idea.

As for India-US relations, we are now too dependent on trade with the USA and need US support to keep China at bay. India's policy of neutrality didn't do any good during the 70s-80s and won't do any good now either. IMO, if the choice has to be made, it should be a prompt one and in favor of the NATO block. When living in the shadow of a juggernaut, it is beneficial to have another juggernaut on your side.

[ValarMorghulis]

As someone with limited Geo-Political knowledge in this aspect, a question to the more knowledgeable folks:

What stops China from invading Taiwan, if Russia invades Ukraine?

US obviously isn't going to interfere in both the places, sine it logically & financially can't. What then?

[CarNerd]

Originally Posted by Electromotive

As for India, we are now too dependent on trade with the USA and need US support to keep China at bay. India's policy of neutrality didn't do any good during the 70s-80s and won't do any good now either. IMO, if the choice has to be made, it should be a prompt one and in favor of the NATO block.

But favouring NATO will mean strengthening the Russia-China-Pakistan block which is not exactly a great thing. The US while sitting in a safe place far away wants others to act on behalf of it whereas it is us who will bear the consequences of allying with it. It can only pick weak countries like Afghanistan, Iraq to send its troops but can't do the same in Ukraine. Just look at Taiwan: China is routinely threatening it and the US has not deployed any troops to defend it. Nobody is going to trust the US after its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by CarNerd

The US while sitting in a safe place far away wants others to act on behalf of it whereas it is us who will bear the consequences of allying with it.

I'm no history or geopolitical expert, but it seems to me that being a military ally of the US has proved more costly than what it's worth for several smaller countries, being pulled in to wars that didn't make any sense and which proved to have no justification whatsoever in the end analysis, and being used as remote US military bases.

Far better to be a nation that can take a decision independent of either of the blocs or superpowers and based on each issue/situation and whatever works best for our long-term interests. Otherwise it's as bad as being back in the days of the cold war and following idiotic proclamations like "you are either with us or against us". While not a 'superpower' I think we're enough of a country to be able to decide each issue on its merits.

Originally Posted by Electromotive

This means China will avoid engaging in any kind of direct war involving the USA or the NATO.

Given the messy state of our defense capability we must avoid a direct war with China and the best way to do so is to buddy up with the USA.

Great points and makes sense. But I also somehow think that the world at large gets a lot of the US-media pov on China's intentions. Might be more to that than what the US wants the world to believe about their opponents.

Pretty hard job for any country's diplomats, all these permutations and combinations. But ultimately, hope the axiom that the purpose of diplomacy is to avoid war, any war, holds in this situation!

[PreludeSH]

Putin might be annoyed with Ukraine wanting to join NATO. But there are issues as old from breakup of Soviet Union. As a ex-KGB, he wants his legacy to build a bigger/powerful country and undo some of the things that happened at that time. He wants to play and offer role in International affairs.

It could also be that a democratic Ukraine might not be something he wants to see next his own dictatorial and his supporter Belarus regimes.

He is a dangerous guy and there is not much other countries can do militarily. Its only the sanctions that can be used by others. India is in difficult situation. We are not China who dont care about US.

[Electromotive]

Originally Posted by ValarMorghulis

What stops China from invading Taiwan, if Russia invades Ukraine?
US obviously isn't going to interfere in both the places, sine it logically & financially can't. What then?

Originally Posted by CarNerd

Just look at Taiwan: China is routinely threatening it and the US has not deployed any troops to defend it. Nobody is going to trust the US after its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

No, at this point China will not dare invade Taiwan. Even attempting to do so will attract the full might of the US war machine. There is a whole carrier group posted there to make sure nothing happens. Taiwan is strategically too important and has critical tech companies like TSMC. If push comes to shove Ukraine will be sacrificed but you can bet the missiles will fly if China dares attack Taiwan.

Originally Posted by CarNerd

But favouring NATO will mean strengthening the Russia-China-Pakistan block which is not exactly a great thing. The US while sitting in a safe place far away wants others to act on behalf of it whereas it is us who will bear the consequences of allying with it. It can only pick weak countries like Afghanistan, Iraq to send its troops but can't do the same in Ukraine. Just look at Taiwan: China is routinely threatening it and the US has not deployed any troops to defend it. Nobody is going to trust the US after its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

In politics there are no true friends. Russia-China-Pakistan block is already strong and the alliance works until it doesn't. Russia and Pakistan are hollow and China will have to bear the cost of waging war. China's economy is highly dependent on exports and can implode if sanctions are brought by the US-EU nations. This means China will avoid engaging in any kind of direct war involving the USA or the NATO. But China really wants to show off its newly acquired military might and teaching India a lesson is a good way to do just that. Given the messy state of our defense capability we must avoid a direct war with China and the best way to do so is to buddy up with the USA.

Best buds. Yay!