[MT_Hyderabad]

According to figures released by the WPR, India's population stood at 1.417 billion at the end of 2022. Notably, China had 1.41175 billion people at the end of last year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on January 17, 2023.

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/e...ticle-97123290

[shankar.balan]

China’s birth rate has been steadily falling. And their rigid dictatorial state- implemented one child policy is now showing visible results. The flip side is that they have a steadily rising elderly population.

India on the other hand; the birth rate is not falling any time soon and with increased life expectancy we will also have a steadily rising population of elders. It is a foregone conclusion that we will soon become the most populous nation in the world.

[antz.bin]

Originally Posted by shankar.balan

India on the other hand; the birth rate is not falling any time soon and with increased life expectancy we will also have a steadily rising population of elders. It is a foregone conclusion that we will soon become the most populous nation in the world.

India's fertility rate has been consistently falling for decades and it is actually below replacement rate of 2.1 overall. Google tells me it was 2.05 in 2020. It must be ever lower now.

In urban areas it is actually much below replacement rate at around 1.7. It is only rural areas which have it higher.

China fudged with the natural process of fertility rate reduction by introducing the one couple one child policy long back and that is going to bite them in the back pretty soon when there will be too many old people needing care (medical and pension) and too few young people to take care of them all.

In India, that problem is far away. And if at all it does, it won't be happening any time soon.

[Shreyans_Jain]

The problem is that the working generation of today will be required to take care of the young generation after it, as well as the one before it. This is a huge ask, especially with inadequate social security for the elderly and the exponentially rising costs of housing, education and raising a child.

In China, one working couple has to care for two sets of elderly parents + their own children. Modern urban India is on the same track, with a relatively far worse off economy, horrible air quality and negligible social security.

[V.Narayan]

When I was a student in the 1970s the things we were taught in Economics were of Western origin entirely. The accepted wisdom, typical of Western thought, was of a Malthusian doomsday on population; that abject poverty, hunger and destitution lay ahead for India. At that time not only was our population increasing but it was accelerating at a faster and faster pace each year and our economy thanks to license raj socialism wasn't going anywhere except in circles. So to some extent this time bomb ticking theory wasn't off the mark. The chart below shows our declining birth rate and the dramatic drop in a generation.




The UN estimates we will peak at 1.6 billion or so in 25 to 30 years and then decline. My observations as a layman looking at data and social change on the ground indicates we will peak lower and earlier. The average children per woman dropped to 2.05, below the 2.1 replacement rate, in 2020 and in 2023 it is expected to be around 1.96. Because oldies like me refuse to die on cue and the base population of child bearing females is very large the population will continue to grow slowly and at a rapidly slowing pace for maybe 15 more years {my uneducated estimate} before stabilizing and then falling. These increases are small relative to the base.

The chart below depicts the growth in actual millions of souls in every two-year period. As we see the actual numbers being added each year is dropping off rapidly and steadily. In the two-year cycle between 2022 & 2024 it is estimated will be the first time since the 1961 that the annual increase in numbers will fall to below 10 million a year, substantially below actually.



The not so happy piece is that U.P., Bihar & JH are the states which have not done enough to rein in their population growth.



Education, Health, Nutrition, vocational skills - these are the pieces we need more attention to.

[deehunk]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

The not so happy piece is that U.P., Bihar & JH are the states which have not done enough to rein in their population growth.

It will be interesting to see the population growth of UP, Bihar and Jharkhand in the last 10 years. These states easily account for around 20-25 percent of our total population. Since there is no financial stress on the fertile population, these regions will continue to drive the population growth.

[PreludeSH]

Even some states with less fertility will see more population growth due to migration. So the high fertility states are not the only ones who will see positive and negative aspects of increase in population. As a country we are certainly gaining due to population demography.

[Mortis]

The sooner our population starts decreasing, the better. A lower population density and higher per capita income will lead to a better quality of life. A better quality of life would mean healthier, more independent elderly population with hopefully a better social support system.

[RedTerrano]

I have an idea to reign in the population explosion, but I suspect it will never be implemented.

Pass the following law:
All Govt schemes / freebies / subsidies / whatever can be availed of, by only those who have two kids or less.

[Shreyans_Jain]

Originally Posted by RedTerrano

I have an idea to reign in the population explosion, but I suspect it will never be implemented.

Pass the following law:
All Govt schemes / freebies / subsidies / whatever can be availed of, by only those who have two kids or less.

A limited version of this has been implemented by some states. It has consequences. Just yesterday, a man in Rajasthan threw his 5 month old girl (third child) into a canal, for fear of falling foul with the state’s 2 child policy for permanent jobs.

https://www.timesnownews.com/mirror-...e-97265161/amp

[RedTerrano]

Originally Posted by Shreyans_Jain

A limited version of this has been implemented by some states. It has consequences. Just yesterday, a man in Rajasthan threw his 5 month old girl (third child) into a canal, for fear of falling foul with the state’s 2 child policy for permanent jobs.

This doesn't make sense to me. So for 9+5 = 14 months these monsters (the wife was also arrested) was not aware of the 2 child government policy? I also noticed the poor child was a girl. Makes me wonder if the real reason was her gender and had got nothing to do with the job policy.

Anyway, by your logic, all laws have consequences. e.g. The law says you shall not kill anyone. Both these monsters still went ahead and did it.

Overall I am glad to learn that 2 child policies do exist. There could be hope after all.

This population menace has to be tackled one way or the other.
Right now 40% are working hard to feed 60%. If the trend continues, 10% will be expected to provide for 90%. At what stage will it become impossible and or economy collapses?

PS. Please note the date of the tweet. This is post Chinese virus.

[deehunk]

Originally Posted by Shreyans_Jain

A man in Rajasthan threw his 5 month old girl (third child) into a canal, for fear of falling foul with the state’s 2 child policy for permanent jobs.

Have the lawmakers in India thought about exceptions for people who may have twins after the first child or triplets?

[bullitt1]

Is this number includes only those living in this country. I think there are atleast half a billion more anchored in every nook and corner of the world, probably few on Mars as well, settled in some relative habitable zones.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by RedTerrano

I have an idea to reign in the population explosion, but I suspect it will never be implemented.

Pass the following law:
All Govt schemes / freebies / subsidies / whatever can be availed of, by only those who have two kids or less.

To be honest, there is no population explosion right now except in UP, Bihar etc. The population growth right now is due to high fertility rates + huge drop in mortalities in the 80s and 90s. If anything, the fertility rate is lower than 2.1 these days - less than what is needed to maintain the current population.

About the UP, Bihar exception, the only way to get around that is to follow what the other states did - general investment in human resources, education & awareness in family planning, ensuring social mobility etc. There is no quick solution for this - just ask China. Carrots and sticks don't work here.

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

To be honest, there is no population explosion right now except in UP, Bihar etc. The population growth right now is due to high fertility rates + huge drop in mortalities in the 80s and 90s. If anything, the fertility rate is lower than 2.1 these days - less than what is needed to maintain the current population.

Sweden, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, and West Bengal are all the same in terms of total fertility rate - hovering around the 1.66 mark. This is markedly lower than the replacement TFR of 2.1. Except for the BIMARU (and offspring) states, the rest of India seems to have rather different HDI markers.