Hi Dharmesh,
Thanks for starting such a fantastic and unusual thread. The facts in the links you supplied are heavy to digest at one go and will need extensive reading.
Just to further the discussion, some things I gleaned:
1. The peak oil theory article says all countries are on the declining side of the peak except Kuwait, Iraq and S Arabia (these hitting the peak within next 2-4 years).
2. The world oil (as per US Petroleum Institute) reserve may finish between 2062 and 2094 (with some assumptions regarding consumption rate).
3. Biofuel is alternate fuel to replace fossil fuel and requires land to cultivate. Even if we assume that Jatropha could grow on not-so-fertile land, we have to factor that cultivated crops would be sacrificed for profit in fuel crops.
4. As population continues to grow, more food would be required.
5. Juxtaposed, points 3 and 4 suggest that a balance would need to be arrived at, to prioritize.
My 2 cents from all this:
1. Humanity has always depended on readily available resources, coal and oil, for energy and these are limited in quantity and non-regenerative(don't know the right word).
2. Even considering conversion to Biofuels in near future, we would just switch from being dependent on an oil well to being dependent on land (cultivated with oil seeds etc) and that is limited too. The question is, is the regenerative capacity of sparable land enough (apart from already cultivated land and the land set aside taking into account growing food requirements) to act as a reliable replacement to match the crude oil extraction and supply rate? If not, what might be the difference?
3. Biofuels would be a crop and dependent on the rain, land fertility reduction over repeated crops etc (if to a much lesser extent than other crops?) and likely to sway widely in the production rate affecting economies?
4. Agriculture itself requires lot of fuel for transportation and operation of machinery and so would biofuel. Is this counted in the trade-off between requirement and availability?
With all these points, what is the viability of biofuels being the right replacement to fossil fuel on a lasting basis?
The peak oil curve has an exponential drop. This may mean a critical production drop (to trigger a worldwide crisis) well before the depletion dates of 2062-2094. Apocalyptic theories abound in this regard with books and movies (remember Mad Max?). Considering it takes us about 200 years to deplete crude oil (since the beginning of IC engine?), the most consumtion concentrated in the later years (so called development requiring energy-intensive lifestyle), what would be the fate of earth's soil if we use biofuels as an alternative?
What would be the estimated cost of technology migration to suit biofuels when most engines are designed to use the exisitng fuels? Isn't this a major lobby factor?
With the developed nations' currrent stance on climactic change to not even do the basic to cut emissions, how much importance does the oil crisis portend in politics and what is the predicted timeline when positive action (read a** saving last ditch maneouvre) to battle these may be triggered?
Many more questions come to mind but this is already a big post.
