[acidkill]

Great job GTO. Pre 2010 i could earlier buy a car during a launch and easily call its future success. But now my track record is horrendous.

In 2011, I bought the vento - its on the ventilator now
In 2013, i got the sunny - again, its on the ventilator
In 2014, i booked the mobilio. Thank god i cancelled. Just look at its numbers.

And now im choosing between the xuv500 and the pajero sport for my next car. Looks like im gonna see some resale value disasters in a few years time.

[ToyotaFan]

Originally Posted by acidkill

And now im choosing between the xuv500 and the pajero sport for my next car. Looks like im gonna see some resale value disasters in a few years time.

Am pretty sure pajero sport will be a bigger disaster than the vento or the sunny have been. With HM MITSHUBUSHI volumes now reducing to low triple figures I do not forsee a future for them. Xuv is a segment lower but will be better in this aspect. But the best will be the toyota fortuner. The Innova and the fortuner hold on to their values the best (due to ever increasing prices) and low cost of ownership with great after sales. I have both the cars and am extremely happy with both.

[Vigkey]

Originally Posted by GTO

[b][center]Not a good month for Honda. The Japanese company logs its lowest month in a year; clearly, Honda was stuffing dealer channels recently and it was time for some inventory clipping. YOY growth is merely 1,600 cars, and the MOM dip is a massive 10,000 cars. It's hard to put a finger on Honda's wild sales fluctuations. The City is the star performer, ending April with 8,200 dispatches. The Amaze goes through a steep decline to merely 2,862 units! April was its worst month in history. You'll see a lot of Amaze ads around, so clearly dealers are sitting on inventory pileup, which they want out the door before taking in new cars from the factory. Can't Honda ever plan its production in line with actual demand? Another one to see its worst sales ever, is the overpriced Mobilio. I insist this MPV had no right to be priced at such a premium over the Ertiga. 689 shipments means the Mobilio is now on ventilator support. The Brio remains the flop it always was. Not only customers, Honda itself gives the Brio a cold shoulder. Despite its new strategy of focussing on the sub-10 lakh segment, Honda must be feeling a sense of déjà vu... just like it was for the last decade, the City is the only car bringing in significant volumes. Period.

Hey GTO, I dont think that Honda is actually facing some planning issue. I guess they are planning and playing it too smart. Like I have mentioned multiple times in various threads before, Honda's March dispatch of 22.5k is way over their total installed capacity of 20k per month. Doesn't that indicate sales clearance + stocking up Amazes and Mobilios at the dealerships?? IMO, that will be double benefit from HCIL perspective (not for dealers though ) - stock clearance + open up capacity for upcoming Jazz.

This way, Honda will have a 2-3 month window where they will not have to produce a lot of Amaze / Mobilio as there will be very low demand from the dealership (they will have to clear the stock with them first). In the meantime they can free up the production line for Indian Jazz and produce enough Jazz to be ready for the Indian launch in July with around 10k Jazz ready to sell. This will make sure Jazz will not have too much of wait-time at least in the beginning and this will help them plan for the future.

I seriously think Honda will be freeing up the Tapukara plant exclusively for City (10k) + Jazz (6-7k) and use the Noida plant for Brio (1.5k) + Amaze (6k) + Mobilio (2k). If Jazz does not sell 6-7k per month, they can probably use some capacity there to produce Amaze. That way, they will fully utilize the plant capacity till the extension is up and running in 2016.

[arnabchak]

Dear Rush

Excellent report. Undoubtedly a 5 star report.
It has been ages that you penned down your expert thoughts on this thread and was pleasantly surprised to see that you have compiled the report this month.

My thoughts!!

This time on my "Outlook Perception"

Outlook: Bright

1) Maruti
The outlook is bright.
New cars and newer technologies are in the making.
Celerio Diesel without the national heart will be interesting.
Also, AMT in the Wagon R (along with a diesel transplant) had been transpiring for some time. It that happens, the modest Wagon R could be selling in the 25K+ range per month!!

A great show with most of the cars in their stables getting in numbers.
The top tank at management meets do not fear the sales done but probably the steep targets they may be thrusted upon.
47% market share in a crowded market is extremely enviable.

2) Hyundai
Outlook is bright

Good cars capable of doing everything just correct.
I drove the Elite i20 and though it did not have any particular USP, I came back feeling happy.
That's the place Hyundai is in. Good features, well stitched products and decent ASC support.
Most of their products are hits barring the 30+ lac Santa Fe.
Verna, for one, is loosing steam and may just settle in the 1500 mark

3) Honda
Outlook is still Bright

Am i out of my mind to include Honda here?
No. Just my understanding.
Honda may have ceded the podium position to M&M but I maintain their outlook as bright.
Reason being the Rural segment is going through a low phase. Honda has a typical urban portfolio and may be unhindered in the long run.
City has established its dominance and will continue.
Amaze, with its Yo-yo runs also brings in the bucks for Honda.

They have an in house engine in the iDtec and hence save on license and brand management fees to Fiat.
Their cars are not really VFM and hence profits will ring.

Jazz launch is pending and if priced well, can set the cat among the pigeons.

Outlook: Diminishing/Dim

1) M&M
The rural centric auto maker can boast of just one blockbuster, UV Bolero.
One Superhit- SUV-Scorpio
One Hit- XuV500
5 FLOPS- Xylo, Verito,Vibe,Quanto,Rexton

Now, that is a very risky proposition.
Rural market is diminishing. The Bolero needs a facelift and a good one at that.
The Quantos and the Veritos have to rest. Period.

Bring on the XuV facelift quickly and develop the S101 and launch it.
Time is running out and how!!

2) Tata
Great products but somehow feels they no longer have the stomach to taste big success.
Zest was competent. Bolt was its foil.
Zest was a pricing success. Bolt, a disaster.
What happens. Both fail.
Why? Probably the Tata factor.
Manza outselling Zest says a lot.
Bolt will not set anything on fire. It is on its way to martyrdom!!

The Kite and the Nano AMT are likely launches but then they are nowhere near the hoopla the Zest and Bolt created.
Not a very happy scenario here!!

Outlook: Bleak(read Pitch Dark)

1) GM
Why, why are you doing this to us?
8 products, 20 years in India, Over 100 years of automotive experience and not even 0ne, yes, one single hit product in India.

I had a test drive of the Sail sometime back and penned my thoughts here:
http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian...ml#post3688684

Sail Uva- Fail
Sail Sedan- Fail
Cruze- Fail(the Facelift looks another disaster in the making with Hyundai, Honda and GM mash ups)
Tavera- Fail
Enjoy-Disaster
Spark-Fail(Non Existent)
Beat- Failing
Captiva-Fail

Now, where do we go from here. "Stairway to Heaven" looks like the ideal song for you guys!!

BTW, the upcoming Spin will probably accelerate your spinning out of India.

2) Fiat
Such a shame. One of the most admired car makers in shambles.
Competent cars yet in the drains.
Like GTO mentioned, they bosses would be chewing their fingernails to glory in board meetings.
Stick to the engines. That is what counts!!

3) Renault/Nissan/Datsun
Probably, Datsun would be the happiest of the trio.
Barring the Duster(that too is waning), no car hits the mark.
Not only hits the mark, it does not even feature in the desirability list.
Scala,Pulse,Micra,Sunny,Fluence= RIP!!

4) Ford

The Ecosport magic is waning.
I may be wrong in putting them here and they could figure in the Diminishing outlook section but my reasons of putting them here is as below:
a) They launch a competitive product and just a couple of months post launch, lose interest. The new Fiesta is a "classic"(pun intended) example. I sincerely hope they do not do this with the Aspire.
b) Launch price is lucrative. High demand makes them greedy and prices steep up substantially. They could sustain that in the case of Ecosport as it is a new segment. They cannot play with Aspire. You are in the most competitive segment and are playing with the mighty Dzire, Amaze, Zest,Xcent and even the Elite i20.

My outlook for Ford remain bleak as of now. Aspire and the Figo launch and sustenance will elevate them to the "Dim" category!!

[jessie007]

I would like to add to the statistics with figures for segment-wise market share over a period of last month, 3 months and 6 months. These numbers give a fair picture of each vehicles market share within its own segment and whether they are gaining or losing. Plus the percentage market share and overall segment-wise sales are color-coded to reflect relative position.

Segmentation might not be perfect but I have done it to the best of my knowledge. I have left out some vehicles that have negligible impact in overall market share. Have also highlighted (in yellow) top 10 sellers for each month over the past six months. Hope this is helpful.

Click on an image to enlarge / zoom:

[arnabchak]

Originally Posted by acidkill

Great job GTO. Pre 2010 i could earlier buy a car during a launch and easily call its future success. But now my track record is horrendous.

In 2011, I bought the vento - its on the ventilator now
In 2013, i got the sunny - again, its on the ventilator
In 2014, i booked the mobilio. Thank god i cancelled. Just look at its numbers.

And now im choosing between the xuv500 and the pajero sport for my next car. Looks like im gonna see some resale value disasters in a few years time.

Well Said Bro. Made me seeing your post.

Vento is a competetnt car that was solely let down by the ASC support.
Same is the case with Sunny as well.

Mobilio is a different case. It was bound to fail. Reasons:
1) You are fighting with the established and VFM Ertiga.
2) Your product interiors are nothing but the Brio at 2X the price
3) No USP to write home about
4) Pricing disaster
5) Pricey ASC of Honda vs Maruti

So, why would I buy it?
Its a good decision to shelve it. But, again between the two choices, the vote would go to the XuV anytime.
Pajero has a foster father in India and will be a depreciation disaster(not to forget, spare parts sourcing challenges) in the next 3-5 years.

[aaggoswami]

1) Swift and Dzire are selling well and upto some extent, rightly so. The petrol motor is refined, well performing and offers good FE compared to competition. Diesel is already well known. But somehow, the scope of improvement is noticeable.

2) Celerio. I think its reasonable success given the massive overlap of cars. Alto K10, Celerio and Wagon R using same motor and pricing overlap is unavoidable. What happens to Wagon R when Celerio diesel arrives ? Wagon R AMT + CNG, if offered, could mean cheap cost of running with automatic convenience.

3) Ciaz has done good for itself. Doing better than Ritz, one of the most under rated car after Baleno IMO.

4) Xcent and Amaze. I had earlier expressed my surprise when Amaze was outselling Xcent. Xcent as a product is much better than Amaze. Xcent feels better built and more upmarket than Amaze.
The strength of Amaze is diesel engine which is much better than Hyundai's 1.1 motor that struggles to move relatively heavy Xcent.
Reduction in petrol and overall fuel prices seems to have given way to higher petrol products being sold and petrol Xcent makes one feel money well spent than Amaze. Honda's strategy of cutting costs so much has proved to be a big negative.

5) Mobilio is just not selling. Honda should learn from Brio/Amaze/Mobilio sales. Ertiga and Innova are only two people movers which are actually doing good sales ( and IMO they deserve that ). Lodgy is overpriced IMO after I had a look at it.

6) City is doing super good. Almost selling double than Ciaz.

7) Tata motors is now burdened with a negative image. Zest is a nice product and so is Bolt. But pricing remains key for Bolt. Zest has to crave out a niche where top two manufacturers are having competitive products with good dealer and after sales and service experience.

8) Etios twins. Same story as Honda, but Toyota did not compromise on low cost of ownership even in diesel format which means despite the stiff and much modern competition, the sales are more or less consistent. Its worth a mention that all variants of Liva have Airbags as standard. No other car manufacturer offers airbags in that price range, be it elite i20 or the Swift.

9) Somehow, I feel Fiat has to look into pricing. Punto Evo is not VFM when we compare it with the segment toppers, Swift and Elite i20. With some price reduction and sales push, Linea classic can still do good IMO.

[humyum]

Look at this Maruti Numbers. UNREAL.

The 1.3 DDIS and the Petrol Versions of the Swift And Dzire and able to garner so much volumes even after so many years of their launches with just incremental changes to them. Speaks volumes of the trust Indains have in this brand.

I think with the Celerio Diesel in the pipeline, it's not long before Maruti controls more than 50% of the passenger car market. Come Ik2 and Brezzel and I see it touching a shade like than 60% in a year or two's time.

[svsantosh]

Long time since I saw your Post-2 GTO...

Thanks for the end-to-end neutral thoughts.

Next few months ought to be interesting with --

failing rupee
raising oil price
MENA turmoils
GST flip-flop
nano AMT

what else?

[Aditya]

No one can argue with Maruti or Hyundai. They just seem to be going from strength to strength.

Mahindra is relying on just three products at the moment. Hopefully, the upcoming compact SUV and new Bolero will bring some cheer. The Vibe and Verito have to go.

Tata's new babies are really struggling here. I wonder how long it will be before the "no taxi" policy is given a second thought. The designs of all their products have to change.

The Europeans and Americans just don't seem to know how to do business in the mass segments.

[sadsack]

Making out patterns of the direction that buyers are taking is getting very difficult except with Maruti and Hyundai. That is not very surprising since in India, we think of selling a vehicle even before we buy it. Since Maruti have been here for donkey's years and Hyundai became the second player because it was willing to risk moving into the small car segment first and then into making bigger cars and because that risk has paid off in terms of volumes for their small cars (while the "premium" offerings just became duds) and that has ensured that their resale values are better than those of the other car brands.

I have spoken to some people in the industry and dealerships and one of the comments offered by a dealer was most interesting. People were staying from some brands because their names are difficult to pronounce. Renault is the prime example as is Volkswagen. Model names are equally difficult to make sense of, especially names like Evalia, Scala, Jetta, Phaeton, Punto and Linea. One was even saying that people come inquiring about the Puhnto (as in punter) and Lynea and ask them what they mean.

In contrast Maruti and Hyundai model names are easy to pronounce and understand. Swift, Dzire, Alto, Wagon R are the ones that roll easily of the tongue. This seems to have hit the European manufacturers more.

Toyota is a formidable brand in India and it is the Innova that Toyota focuses on in India. The Corolla too is a well known car, but it is in a segment that is slowly becoming irrelevant with the Civic, Octavia, Laura, Elantra having all but disappeared. The luxury brands moving into the 20+ lakh range is making that segment (the Civic, Octavia etc) more and more difficult to sustain with Mercedes, BMW, Audi et all looking for volumes in the 20+ lakh segment. Toyota's Etios and the Liva doing 2000+ cars a month is not a bad achievement in a segment which is dominated by the Swift/Dzire and the i10 Grand/Excent. To add to this is the fact that cars like the City and Verna are getting bigger and pricier.

Tata is a case of sitting around too long without doing much. The Zest/Bolt are now doomed to sink. The Zest on its own was a new car and therefore was managing to sell some units. But once the Vista like Bolt joined it in the market place not only is it going down it also seems to be taking the Zest down with it. I would really like to see what happens with the Nano. In one of my posts I had written that I got information from a Tata Group top level executive that the Nano with AMT will come only in Jan, 2016 and this was countered by another post that it was coming in April, also as per an insider of Tata. I therefore went back to my source to seek clarification and was told that Tata would aggressively advertise the new model but the waiting list for the AMT would be long. This is borne out by the fact that the Zest also has a waiting list. If this is indeed true, then Tata has once again shot itself in the foot. People are going to rush to the showrooms for the AMT and if they are told they have to wait, they will in all likelihood go to Maruti whose Celerio has preferential treatment from Magneti Marelli. What then happens to the GenX would be the question.

I admit that I just cannot understand what is happening with Datsun. It is like a yo-yo and I will not pretend to have any understanding of the situation.

But please do not write off Honda. It is reinventing itself both in the two wheel and in the four wheel sector. Honda's engineering skills are unmatched it will probably take time to sort out production at Tapukara which seems to be catering both to the two and four wheeled vehicles. I still believe it is a matter of time for Honda to get to the status of no.2. It needs to price the Jazz properly. All the other products like the Brio, the Amaze and the City are priced well. My bet is still on Honda moving up.

GM seems to want to sell India produced cars in other markets; let us see if that strategy pays off. Fiat is headed for a global crisis very soon, so let us not even talk about the Indian scenario.

[DCEite]

Good to see the very well deserving Xcent overtaking Amaze by good margin.

However, had Hyundai plonked a better diesel engine on the Xcent, i am sure this very capable car would be very close to dZire's sales figures.

The Petrol Xcent though, is a no brainer against Amaze and even the DZire. But then DZire is a Maruti!

[arnabchak]

Originally Posted by DCEite

However, had Hyundai plonked a better diesel engine on the Xcent, i am sure this very capable car would be very close to dZire's sales figures.

That's being too optimstic but in the same breath, yes, the Xcent has capability of a 10K+ figure with a better engine.

They could have used the i20 to a lower tune and plonked it in the Xcent.

[Vid6639]

Originally Posted by DCEite

However, had Hyundai plonked a better diesel engine on the Xcent, i am sure this very capable car would be very close to dZire's sales figures.

Quite high hopes. If that were the case, the Elite i20 would also be outselling the Swift or be close to Swift numbers. Right now the swift is at 18K units and Hyundai does 12K+ units of the ELite i20. The Elite even has the better engines but the gap is still quite big.

The Petrol Xcent though, is a no brainer against Amaze and even the DZire. But then DZire is a Maruti!

Not really, the 1.2L K series is actually a very capable engine and so is the 1.2L i-Vtec. Both even have better FE figures. All 3 engines are good but I think the K series and honda vtec do have an edge over the Hyundai's Kappa2.

But that's for another thread.

[DCEite]

Originally Posted by Vid6639

Not really, the 1.2L K series is actually a very capable engine and so is the 1.2L i-Vtec. Both even have better FE figures. All 3 engines are good but I think the K series and honda vtec do have an edge over the Hyundai's Kappa2.

But that's for another thread.

I have driven all three consistently, while the i-vtec has better in-gear accelaration the Kappa2 is a very smooth and free revving mill. The Swift is somewhat in between in terms of performance and refinement. Frankly i did not find K series on the new Swift to be a very thrilling motor.

Though when i said petrol Xcent is a better proposition than Amaze, i also took into consideration the lower service interval of the Hyundai (1 year) compared to Honda (every 6 months).