[GTO]

Thread moved from the Assembly Line to the Indian Car Scene!

[rrsteer]

So, in the 5 year period ~ 12 million car got added to our roads!

To put that in perspective, our population grew by about ~ 56 million in the same period

And to put in a little more perspective, US market should have added ~ 70 - 75 million cars in the same period!

[bullock-Car]

Great summary and analysis, The consistent performance from the industry leaders Maruti and Hyundai is a testimony their good market research and spot on products and speaks volumes for their management practices.
Kudos to Maruti having a marketshare of ~50 %, with so many global gaints present. Goodwill of Tatas and novelty of Nano is vanishing. The gap with MNCs slowly widening. Worst part is that it is not in consideration by urban classes (including taxis).

[mustang_shelby]

@GTO: its always wonderful to read your incisive analysis, interspersed with tongue-in-cheek comments.
2015 was an action packed year, no doubt. If I am not mistaken, we had more product launches in 2015 than in any year before by quite some margin. More choice for the customer, and more pressure on the OEMs to provide us better products with better a.s.s. Good times!

[getsriram]

Good summary. More and more cars on the road despite rate and tax increase.
Some interesting points in my view

1. B1 and C1 goes to Maruti. B2 goes to Hyundai and C2 goes to Honda. Considering their relative weakness in other segments it appears Maruti had done better than the other two overall.

2. In C2.. Honda city selling almost as many as Celerios is quite something. But Honda has to pull up its socks in segments below and above. Its success in City is half as much as lack of competition in as much as a good product. Ciaz gave a good fight and lost till now, but if they can improve the engine on it then Honda would find it difficult. Hyundai has to definitely do something about Verna. Right now its easy money handed over to City and Ciaz.

3. Germans are quite resilient for the amount of bad news they received on their brands. I believe they must have (especially VW) taken the maximum possible juice and profits out their cars by selling them for so many years. More than their cars their dealers need a revamp in my view.

4. Correct me if I am wrong. But I believe both Toyota and Tata (with exception like fortuner) risk becoming brands which cater just to cabs in few years time.

5. For Ford, Fiat, GM my opinion is they are not too keen on India market and hence their strategy is all over the place.

[AJ-got-BHP]

It goes without saying, excellent compilation there GTO !!

Some fine observations :

• Datsun doing higher numbers than Skoda, Fiat & HM-Mitsubishi is indeed surprising and Car Makers should keep a close watch on that and the ones lower down the order should indeed pull up their socks
• Renault doing higher numbers than VW is also very strange to me What is more surprising to see that in a YOY Comparison VW has continuously and consistently shown a de-growth in numbers in the last 5 years is not at all good to see.
• Good to see EcoSport & Creta making it to the Top 20 List

It's phenomenal to see the way this industry has been growing. With the Auto Expo around the corner, a lot of new launches shall also make their mark in the 2016 Report Card. This is going to be a really interesting year for the Car Makers and the Car Enthusiasts indeed !!

[Rajeevraj]

Excellent analysis GTO and Aditya. Thanks for sharing.

• Maruti seems to be going from strength to strength. No complacency. AMT, standard safety, success with the premium launches. The list goes on. And they are not done yet. If the Baleno is any indication, the Vitara Berezza is set to be another block buster followed by the ignis. The focus on performance with the boosterjet is also a good thing.
  
• Hyundai should be a little worried. The SCross price cut and the Vitara and BR V can impact the Creta. Grand i10 can be under pressure from the KUV and Zica. i20 had handed over the premium hatch crown to Baleno. Verna is struggling in an already declining segment. I don't think they have a big launch this year.
  
• 2016 will be critical to Honda too. A lot depends on the BR V. City should continue its successful run, but we will probably start to see long term ownership reports and will give an indication of how the car is aging. Jazz seems destined to be an average seller.
  
• Toyota should speed up bringing the Vios in. Considering how the corolla outsells everything else combined in spite of being the least equipped, a Vios with a good quality interior can sell well.
  
• The KUV will be critical for Mahindra in 2016. It's success/failure will define the path forward for Mahindra. Managing the 2.0 diesel ban is also a worry.
  
• Hope tata's effort with their new products translates into sales in 2016. The Zica looks to be a very good product and the hexa is another hope. The Zest will again come under pressure from. The Ameo especially if VW brings the diesel dsg.
  
• For Ford, Ecosport will be under severe pressure from the Berezza. They also need to put some good marketing weight behind the Figo twins. The Aspire is one car that will come under pressure from the VW Ameo. Endeavour looks to be a brilliant product. Need to see how it sells once the new fortuner is launched.
  
• VW's Ameo does not look like it will break any new ground, but will be a good option to have. Can bring in potential Polo customers who turned away due to the rear space. Expect the Polo and Vento to remain stable. Hope the Tiguan comes in this year itself.
  
• Nothing much for Skoda to do. Since the Rapid and Octavia are very competent cars, a standard volume is guaranteed. 2016 focus should be on dealer experience.
  
• Would be interesting to see if Renault can sustain the Kwid momentum. The 1.0 , AMT and the duster facelift will help push volumes further.
  
• Nothing much to look forward to in 2016. Some good cars that will continue to attract loyal fans and enthusiasts.
  
• Nissan, GM, Datsun. Nothing much to expect and no real hopes.

2016 promises to be another interesting year. I think by the end of 2016 the biggest plus would be that safety features will be more the norm rather than exception. On the downside, the infrastructure is struggling to keep up. Hope there is some visionary progress on that front also. Otherwise all these new cars will spend most of their life idling in traffic jams.

[libranof1987]

What a thread! This is simply incredible.

Manufacturers better be paying attention to *at least* this thread, if not the many others here, to get a crisp idea of how they and the industry are performing.

My biggest takeaway from the analysis has been this: lines between segments are rapidly blurring, thanks to an informed and aware consumer base, increased spending power and an upswing in aspirations.

So, sticking an oddly shaped boot will not work for someone who is dreaming of owning a sedan; that person might happily go for a peppy hatch with a generous boot. Nor would having the best product in that segment but on paper, depriving it of safety features.

The automobile market must be both terrifying and exciting: terrifying if you have no clue how to play the market (GM, Nissan) and exciting if you have a pulse of what the customers want (Hyundai, Maruti Suzuki, Mercedes).

Here's to 2016!

[MaheshY1]

Just the kind of assessment I look forward to in every monthly report from GTO but not getting lately. Now comes the entire year packed in a large bag.

Celerio: I'd say it was an experiment to see how we react to AMT. Maruti didn't want to put any of its established brands like Swift, Dzire, WagonR, or Alto on the operation table.
Kwid: If it wasn't for the floods, it could've really brought the numbers for December. I hope Renault speeds up the production to meet demand and refrain from jacking the price just because it has long line of buyers. Waiting for the next show stopper, 1.0 AMT.
Ritz: This is done. Time's up. Ignis incoming, hopefully with AWD, to tackle the KUV and take the badge of 'The Real SUV,' if it gets 4X4.
S-Cross: The less we say the better. Great car doomed by its price tag. I hope it doesn't go down the drain like the Fiesta. Even after the price correction, it didn't recover. Maruti is a quick learner. Baleno's pricing shows that.
I can recall GTO saying he'd rather have his bank statement lighter by 3 lakh for such an impressive (1.6) mill. Now, it'll have to be only 1 lakh lighter.
Ciaz: Maruti not only competes with City but also made its buyers happy when it dodged the odd-even bullet. Hybrid. Heh. I can't believe what passes for hybrid in India. 3 BHP of electric motor. Wow! These guys really know how to sit on safe side of the fence.
KUV100: No comments. It has confused me with its looks. The front center passenger can literally suck on the shifter in the event of a crash. The armrest is a nice party trick though. How did their safety engineers let it even happen? Who at ARAI approved it?
Baleno: I can recall myself and others bashing Maruti and its top management for throwing idiotic comments on safety; comparing cars with two wheelers. That was again understood and acted upon quickly by Maruti. Airbags optional now in all cars right from base variants. Excellent move. Maruti has to be applauded for offering ABS and a pair of balloons in every variant of the Baleno while also pricing it competitively.

[TheStranger]

GTO,

A very informative and comprehensive compilation. It was an eventful year overall but 2016, with its new car launches and upcoming Auto Expo promises even more action.

The most important aspect of this year is the gradual induction of safety features like ABS & Airbags in their lower trim models - some manufacturers even making them standard throughout the trim range. Such awareness for customer safety is indeed laudable.

Hope that this trend continues and all carmakers make these welcome changes !!

[cUjO]

@GTO: I've been reading auto mags since 1997 and never have I read such a detailed YOY analysis. This is a feast for people hungry for data and a great analytics 101. Crisp, to the point and with a beautiful flow to it. Hats off to you mate! This is why I'm a BHPian.

[thatsdileep]

GTO/Aditya,
What a great analysis. This is incredibly detailed. It would be interesting to see how many Diesel mills have been sold VS the petrol. Next year we might see some swing from Diesel mills into petrol with some of the state govts penalizing the oil burners as well as the fuel price difference reducing day by day.

[SS8939]

This was a really informative write up, thank you!

While the Indian car market has come a long way since the 90's, we still have a long way to go.

Almost all global manufactures here just have a presence and not much more (Skoda, VW, Chevy, Fiat, Nissan). Ford is slightly better, but that's about it

Honda sells well, but their cars seem to lack that premium feel of late.

Toyota sells well too, but things like 2 airbags on a Fortuner makes me feel like they take their customers for granted.

Speaking of which, most mass market cars are extremely unsafe owing to their thin sheet metal as a result of cost cutting. The current government needs to act fast and needs to implement a system for crash tests, minimum mandatory safety features etc.

The cost of the cars in general seems to have really gone up of late. While it is unavoidable to a large extent due to inflation, additional input costs and what not, I'm not sure if that alone is a reason. I mean, is an A4 really worth 50 lakhs on road? The cost of an A4 today is exactly the same as what the A6 was just 3 years ago! If someone wants to break down the costs and explain how the pricing is reasonable, please do, I will be really grateful!

Finally, there's a whole list of brands that I'd like to see that includes Dodge, Alfa Romeo, Lexus, Cadillac, Subaru etc.

Okay, rant over. :P

[Simhi]

Thanks GTO for compiling yearly data. Very informative and gives a holistic view of Indian Market.

Originally Posted by GTO

Nissan

Sometimes, I wonder what the hundreds of managers & executives at these companies keep themselves busy with? .... Expect a lot of their office bandwidth to be used up by Facebook this year

Thats was harsh. I know we are looking at domestic sales but if we look at exports figures then we know where managers and executives are busy with. Isn't it? Maybe we should have added a table on exports from India.

Renault Nissan Alliance Rolls Out Its 1 Millionth Car in India, a Nissan Micra
http://auto.ndtv.com/news/renault-ni...-micra-1263844

[vb-saan]

Excellent thread! Thanks for the compilation.

Originally Posted by GTO

Skoda
VW won't agree with me, but I think VW should become the mass-market brand in India, and Skoda the premium. After all, the only car VW is able to sell is the Polo (cheapest car in the VAG India family). On the other hand, Skoda has more success in the 20 - 30 lakh space, as seen by the Octavia & Superb. The VW Passat suffered such poor numbers that it had to be discontinued, and VW dealers were still sitting on 2-year-old unsold Passats! The all-new Superb is much more anticipated than the new Passat for sure, and I haven't heard of any 30 lakh 7-seater VW SUV under development either. The writing is on the wall. Will VW & Skoda wake up?

So true! Concentrate on the premium range of Skoda, including the niche ones like Octavia vRS, and get the VW range to start from Up! The sales of Polo should be a good indicator for them (to realise the good products indeed has a place in the market). But VAG being as confused as ever, now is even more determined to dilute the brand value by bringing an in-between model (Ameo?).

Originally Posted by GTO

The Luxury Germans

I expect them to do even better this year and beyond. The top end of perceived premium brands is so expensive now that buyers will look more into a C-Class and 3-series instead of something like a Passat.

And another brand which may finally crack into the premium segment is the Volvo. The XC90, and the upcoming S90 maybe the much required game changers for the brand in India.