[SmartCat]

Here is an amazing statistic I picked up:

Car sales per month in 1991 (at the time of liberalization): 12,000 per month
Car sales per month in 2018: 280,000 per month
Growth rate: 13% per year

It takes 3 to 4 years for investments to come in and start showing up in the sales numbers, so post 1995 growth rate is likely to be much higher.

[mroutlander]

It's my favorite time of the month - monthly sales stats & analysis. Here is what I feel about the numbers this time:

1. MSIL - Ertiga gains massive volumes. But surprisingly it didn't eat much into Marrazzo's share. Swift/Dzire/Baleno/Brezza continue to be major crowd pullers. 10 out of 14 models from them bring in volumes of 6000+ and 6 of them bring in excess of 10000 or 20000. If this isn't utter dominance, then don't know what is.

2. FCA - Sold just 9 Lineas in Nov'18. Wonder why don't they pull the plug on this. Overall numbers aren't the least bit exciting either - a paltry 65. So, it's only MJD at their rescue. Wonder what happens after BSVI norms kick in.

3. Renault - Apples to oranges but Captur at approx. 1/7th volume of a much older Gypsy, has DOA stamped all over. The new Duster can't come soon enough. Kwid's hanging on to it's average numbers despite the re-entry of Santro

4. M&M - Alturas at 216 in the first month - certainly not a bad start but time will tell if it can surpass Endeavor at least. It was a slow month alright, but Scorpio, TUV300 and XUV500 lose majorly in MoM comparisons - could appear to have been cannibalized by Marrazzo but then the latter's sales figures don't tell that story.

5. Tata - Nexon and Tiago continue their stellar run but the newer variants (Kraz/Kraz+ for Nexon, NRG for Tiago) received a lukewarm response, it seems. Disheartening to see my favorite Hexa at ~500. Ghosts of the past still bothering Tata? Nano has picked up dramatically after June and saw the best demand in the last 6 months - reversal of fortunes ?

6. Toyota - Innova, despite being overpriced, pulls 5425 in a slow month. Toyota could live off Innova and Fortuner for another century in India

7. VW/Skoda - Poor Polo seems to be the only hard-working member of the family, who brings 4-digit sales figures every month. Ameo was supposed to be a good competition to other C1 segment cars but it is not doing the job it was assigned. Vento sales are stagnant. Cousin Skoda performs decently though, given its limited presence.

8. Ford - Their best-selling product - Ecosport - slips to 4th position in the CSUV segment with 4 continuous months of decline in volumes. It might bounce back in December or January but if it doesn't they would need to do something about it. Rest of it is Business As Usual.

[balechaparka]

Mod Note: There are several spelling & grammatical errors in your posts. This negatively affects the forum experience for other readers. Kindly ensure that you proof-read your posts prior to submission. Also, it would be a good idea to use a spell-checker.

[mandeepsekhon92]

I am surprised by the shocking drop in Amaze sales number. Quite curious to know that how a product which is as much capable of doing things as it's prime competitor (Dzire) cannot even harness 25% sales volume of the king of the segment ?

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by mroutlander

1. MSIL - Ertiga gains massive volumes. But surprisingly it didn't eat much into Marrazzo's share.

Not sure I agree with you there.

Just for everyone's clarity, let us examine some specifics. The new Ertiga was launched on November 21st. Then, it took at least another 2 or 3 days for customers to be able to see the car firsthand in showrooms. That moves the timeline to November 23rd or even the 24th. Now, the old Ertiga clocked 1387 units in October. In November, sales stands at 6362 copies. Of course, the number for November is undoubtedly a composite of the sales numbers between old Ertiga (old stock being cleared) and the new model Ertiga. That said, I am sure that the sales share of the older Ertiga in November would be lower compared to its number in October. Still, for simplicity, let us assume that the sales number in November of the older version is the same as that of October, i.e. 1387 units. That means the new version Ertiga sold approximately 4975 units to bring the total to 6362 units in November.

Now, speaking directly to what you have said, let us examine these numbers in the context of those of the Marazzo. The Marazzo was launched in August and sold 1762, 2829 and 3810 units in August, September and October respectively. That is an increase of 60% from August to September; and 35% from September to October. In November, sales of the Marazzo shrank by 11% (as compared to October) to 3387 units.

So, in roughly one week since its launch, the new model has increased the monthly sales number of the Ertiga by 359%; and decreased the Marazzo's monthly numbers by 11%. Again, this is with JUST ONE WEEK of exposure.

So, I am not sure that I agree with you about the Ertiga not denting the Marazzo's numbers.

To be clear, I like the Marazzo. I think it is a nice offering with a super 4 star rating in global NCAP. But, I also think that the Marazzo misses out on a few key aspects that are important to customers in this segment, and it is definitely overpriced by 3 lacs. At least, that's my opinion.

The Ertiga on the other hand has no safety data to report other than to say that it meets Bharat NCAP standards. God knows what that means!! But, that aside, it does have lots going for it. That new petrol engine with automatics in 2 trims. Reportedly, the automatic is also going to be offered in the ZXI+ trim in the coming months. More importantly, the new Ertiga addresses every complaint that customers had about the older model. All in all, there is no question about the fact that the new Ertiga is pure unadulterated Value for Money. This is Maruti's USP and part of its mission statement.

In the months to come, I think Mahindra will start to feel the pain. More so, if the Maruti's new 1.5 liter diesel mill hits the market. I could be wrong. In fact, I hope I am wrong. But, I don't think I am in this case.

P.S.

Please note that I am well aware that the Marazzo's dip in sales in November could also be due to factors other than the launch of the new Ertiga. But, although that is possible, it isn't very likely in my opinion. Because if that were the case, it would be too much of a coincidence that the Marazzo's sales dip happened in the exact month of the Ertiga's launch.

[mroutlander]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

So, I am not sure that I agree with you about the Ertiga not denting the Marazzo's numbers.

Yes, it is certainly possible that Ertiga managed to sway a section of prospective customers away from Marrazzo but speaking purely from a numbers-perspective while the latter didn't lose a lot, the former gained way more in proportion. Further, my viewpoint is that the decline in Marrazzo's numbers could have been due to a sluggish November in general and the bulge in Ertiga's numbers could be attributed to:

1. MSIL loyalists waiting for the Ertiga to arrive
2. Price point - a decent (not sure how safe though) 7-seater at low price
3. Some of the potential Marrazzo customers got pulled by the MSIL name / A.S.S. promise and bought an Ertiga. That's why I said "it didn't eat much". It ate a little, of course
4. Although from different segments, Ertiga could possibly have dented XUV500 (7-seater), TUV300 (7-seater) and Scorpio shares (at least the entry-level or mid-level trims), as these three products lost heavily on the numbers-front.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by mroutlander

3. Some of the potential Marrazzo customers got pulled by the MSIL name / A.S.S. promise and bought an Ertiga. That's why I said "it didn't eat much". It ate a little, of course

Maybe I wasn't clear earlier. So, let me correct that now. What I am saying is that I disagree with you that MSIL ate only a little into Mahindra's Marazzo's share. I think Marazzo lost a lot - 11% of a month's sale in just 1 week of the new Ertiga's exposure. That is a LOT. The numbers for December and the first quarter of 2019 will give us a better picture I am sure.

[RaghuVis]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Not sure I agree with you there.

Just for everyone's clarity, let us examine some specifics.

You are over-analyzing. These numbers are factory dispatches and not real sales to customers. Some points to note.
1) MSIL has 5 times more dealerships than Mahindra. So obviously there are going to be more display cars and TD cars.
2) Ertiga is being launched in Petrol as well as Diesel whereas Marazzo is a diesel only affair.
3) Ertiga has Automatic also which is not there with Marazzo.
4) Marazzo is a new product. Mahindra has to create a little hype to ensure there is constant flow of sales in the initial months.
5) On top of all these, we have to agree that there are too many people waiting to get their hands on Ertiga in the beginning itself so obviously the initial dispatch is going to be huge. Ciaz facelift had huge dispatches in the first two months despite being sold from Nexa outlets(only 300 odd showrooms) and then is down to half of it now.

All said and done one thing is clear that Ertiga is going to be the next blockbuster from MSIL.

[HYDRAVI]

It is high time Nissan Renault and Datsun sell under one brand to increase market share and to attract more customers. Ford seems to concentrate on exports. Market share is steadily coming down in spite of their very good models. They have to watch out . Otherwise they may have to go in GM way. I wonder how Skoda, VW, fiat, Mitsubhishi run their shops?

[BeantownThinker]

Nissan should just pull out from the Indian market ('Kicks' not withstanding, pun intended). The only other manufacturer with equally pathetic numbers is Fiat. But for Fiat, at least they have the engine supply going for them to justify investment in India.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by RaghuVis

You are over-analyzing. These numbers are factory dispatches and not real sales to customers. Some points to note.
1) MSIL has 5 times more dealerships than Mahindra. So obviously there are going to be more display cars and TD cars.
2) Ertiga is being launched in Petrol as well as Diesel whereas Marazzo is a diesel only affair.
3) Ertiga has Automatic also which is not there with Marazzo.
4) Marazzo is a new product. Mahindra has to create a little hype to ensure there is constant flow of sales in the initial months.
5) On top of all these, we have to agree that there are too many people waiting to get their hands on Ertiga in the beginning itself so obviously the initial dispatch is going to be huge. Ciaz facelift had huge dispatches in the first two months despite being sold from Nexa outlets(only 300 odd showrooms) and then is down to half of it now.

All said and done one thing is clear that Ertiga is going to be the next blockbuster from MSIL.

I am overanalyzing? And you are not?

In points 2 and 3, you are saying exactly what I said earlier. On top of that, you have mentioned dealership density, Marazzo's newness as a product, and the new Ciaz's sales bumps due to a waiting customer base!!

In reality, these things have little bearing to the conversation at hand which is about whether the new Ertiga is going to be a threat to Marazzo. And the answer is a huge YES!!. That's really all that matters. Sales numbers over the next few months will give us a clearer picture.

[RaghuVis]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

So, in roughly one week since its launch, the new model has increased the monthly sales number of the Ertiga by 359%; and decreased the Marazzo's monthly numbers by 11%. Again, this is with JUST ONE WEEK of exposure.

Originally Posted by mohansrides

I am overanalyzing? And you are not?

Brother, Cool..I did not mean to offend You!

I was mentioning about over-analyzing for the above quoted specific lines. Hope you understand that the above percentage explanation is completely wrong.

Originally Posted by mohansrides

Dispatch numbers over the next few months will give us a clearer picture.

Of course it will. You also need to remember that they are not direct competitors in terms of price range. Mahindra clearly knows that it cannot compete if pitted directly against successful cars of MSIL or Toyota. Mahindra has played smartly by placing it in the middle by creating a new segment entirely between Ertiga and Innova. I feel Mahindra has goofed up the variants in terms of features a little bit and has been pointed out by many. Hope they correct the same. India needs an affordable but big MUV/People mover.

[mohansrides]

Originally Posted by RaghuVis

Hope you understand that the above percentage explanation is completely wrong.

You would know for certain that I am wrong how?

Originally Posted by mohansrides

P.S.

Please note that I am well aware that the Marazzo's dip in sales in November could also be due to factors other than the launch of the new Ertiga. But, although that is possible, it isn't very likely in my opinion. Because if that were the case, it would be too much of a coincidence that the Marazzo's sales dip happened in the exact month of the Ertiga's launch.

Sorry to quote myself. But, to speak to your allegation that I am attributing Marazzo's decline in sales only to the Ertiga, I want to draw your attention to the above paragraph that was part of my earlier post. Maybe it escaped your attention. I was basically saying that I am well aware of other factors playing into these numbers.

Originally Posted by RaghuVis

You also need to remember that they are not direct competitors in terms of price range.

First, let us agree not to lecture to one another. Now, that said, I think plenty of people will agree that price parity is not the only criteria for direct competition. The Ertiga costs 50% of the Innova, and yet, it is an effective competitor to the Innova because it too is a people mover. Prospective customers decide between these choices based on their own individual purchase requirements - affordability, overall running in the year, etc. Now, the Marazzo has entered this exact segment. It may not have the same price points as the Ertiga or the Innova. But, it sure is playing for the same set of customers.

[mroutlander]

Originally Posted by mohansrides

The numbers for December and the first quarter of 2019 will give us a better picture I am sure.

I second that. A period of 3-4 months will furnish sufficient data to infer a trend.

OT: 14-Dec through 14-Jan will also be relatively dry for automobile industry owing to the belief in many households that this is an inauspicious period

[gatsby_great]

Such a decline in total auto sales could be reflective of the negative sentiments about the overall economic environment. December month figures may be even worse.
-If the prices are raised further, the onset of full fledged electric vehicles will only advance.
-Also, recent developments regarding global NCAP ratings of Indian cars will instill maturity in Indian auto industry regarding safety; which could make safer vehicles more desirable and may impact Maruti Suzuki sales.