With the 2020 Auto Expo over - we now have good clarity on the BS6 transition and how the various companies have approached the big question-mark on making the small diesel engines compliant with the stringent emission norms.
The end result is as follows -
Ford - 1.5L Diesel was made BS6 compliant at a premium of only Rs 13,000/- more.
Hyundai / Kia - 1.2L Diesel made BS6 compliant at an additional premium of 17,900/- Smallest BS6 diesel engine on offer, whereas all other manufacturers have stuck to 1.5L engines as their base diesel formula.
Kia also has the BS6 compliant 1.5 diesel which should be launched in the Hyundai Creta as well soon.
Honda - 1.5 diesel in the Amaze made compliant for 30k over the BS4 variants.
TATA - 1.5 Diesel engine made BS6 compliant for 41k on some variants. Since the Nexon has been facelifted as well, the added premium could also be due to the facelift, making the BS6 transition even cheaper. The small 1L diesel engine in the Tiago/ Tigor was dropped as not being economically viable for BS6 compliance.
Mahindra - No confirmed news on the launch of their small BS6 diesels yet! The 1.2 litre diesel engine in the KUV 1OO has been axed as per reports - but Mahindra still has three different 1.5 diesel engines in the XUV 3OO, TUV 3OO, and the Verito, which are supposed to be made BS6 compliant.
Maruti Suzuki - Working on making a new 1.5 diesel, BS6 compliant engine after they completely lost the plot against rivals. Mr Bhargava declared in 2018 that Maruti isn't keen on diesel engines in small cars as the expected cost is 2,50,000 over the petrol engines. And now Mr Kenichi Ayukawa had to openly admit their blunder - "Our understanding was that the cost will be very high but looking at the competitors’ proposals, it’s competitive,”
Maruti even developed an excellent new 1.5 diesel engine to be launched in 2019, only to be discontinued within a year!
How could the market leader get it so wrong?
Renault / Nissan - Axed their bread and butter engine - the K9K diesel.
Toyota - Axed the 1.4 D4D engine, along with the cars using it. The
taxi market is going to miss this one, for sure.
Volkswagen / Skoda - Once bitten, twice shy! Volkswagen plans to move away from diesels altogether, with the 1.0 TSi petrol being the new mainstay of the VW lineup.
FCA - The 1.3 Multijet was truly the backbone of the Maruti Suzuki small car range, but with Maruti backing out of demand and TATA moving on to their own engines as well, and FCA not having any more small cars in their range - the production has been stopped.
So what happened?
How can the end result be so different?
How did some companies achieve compliance with a small premium of just 13,000/- whereas someone else dropped a huge diesel portfolio with predictions of an added premium of 1,50,000?
Maruti was selling more diesel cars in the country than most other manufacturers combined, and yet - they decided to abandon diesel engines. Toyota handed over the taxi market to others on a silver platter, and Renault/Nissan gave up on the only reason they have been able to sell cars above the entry segment.
Will diesels really lose out completely?
I highly doubt it, given the competitive price for some of the models. It does look like the diesel customer base may reduce, but not so much that the market segment becomes insignificant for companies to invest in!
Taxi and commercial segment isn't moving away from diesels soon either - till electric mobility starts making financial sense.
Why the fear-mongering?
Maruti, Toyota, SIAM - Everyone seemed keen to paint a very grim future of BS6 diesel engines initially, but the transition seems to have happened like a walk in the park for the other camp.
And now - after seeing the results, Maruti seems to be trying to get back in the race!
And do we have a can of worms waiting to be opened?
It is obvious that cheaper BS6 compliance on these smaller diesel engines have been achieved just by using NOx trap and without the expensive SCR and DEF injection components that were supposed to make BS6 diesel engines very expensive.
What does one group know that the others don't?
Volkswagen once made the wrong bet with the installation of a Lean NOx trap on their cars instead of the urea-based systems - and paid heavily for this decision. But - this was primarily on the bigger 2.0 diesel engines. But that seems to have scared them off enough to not try the same on their 1.5 diesel range as well.
What will be end result in the market-share?
Maruti - Toyota camp seems to have been positive back in 2018 about the prospects of CNG and the shift in usage from diesel to CNG at least in the commercial sector. There were news reports that Maruti Suzuki had requested the dealers to invest in CNG stations in preparations for the upcoming shifts in customer preferences due to BS6. Although the company has a large CNG range of cars - I feel the strategy has not really paid off.
Diesel still rules the roost, especially down south and among high mileage private users. With the cost-effective options available from Ford, Hyundai, TATA, and Honda - will there be a shift in market share?
Will Maruti Suzuki be able to hang on to a 50% market share without a single diesel model in their lineup - at least for a short term? And if not - is it possible to recover that market share once lost?
Thoughts?