[V.Narayan]

It is not just the beginning of the end of manual transmissions. Instead we are at the cusp of slow but steady change that will see the end of the ICE gear box probably - AT and MT. Where MT and AT in India are concerned we are merely catching up with the West with a15 year lag. For 99% of the driving population the chore of an MT in traffic is worth getting rid of and AT is the answer. In India whether you drive in a Metropolis like Bangalore or a large city like Amdavad or a small one like Bareilly MT is a strain on the driver. Except for some enthusiast who loves revving up from 1st gear to 2nd back to 1st back to 2nd.... Indian cities don't offer much. Hell even main battle tanks used by modern armies are all going automatic now and they traverse the roughest of cross country terrains. If there was one vehicle that should have stayed with MT it is the battle tank but even there AT rules today in all main battle tank types under production. Steam railway engines, piston powered aircraft, reciprocating steam engines (on ships), noisy turbojets on airliners all sailed off to Valhalla (the land of the fallen). Now the time for the MT is around the corner.

For me personally I bought my last MT in 2010 and first AT in 2015. Now there is no looking at an MT ever again. With 99% of my driving by time within cities or their extended environs the strain of an MT is not worth it. With EVs around the corner en masse that is the next step.


Me too an automatic with 7 forward and 1 reverse gears.

[db_cooper]

Man is this thread depressing!
On the bright side Toyota might be the knight in shining armour for those who dislike EV's due to no MT options.

Check out the link below:
https://www.financialexpress.com/aut...lutch/2433667/

With R&D in Hydrogen cells, Solid state batteries and MT for EV's, Toyota has quite a team to take care of the auto segment in the future.

[ashokabs]

Interesting views on automatics replacing manual shifts. There are several factors pushing the market towards automatics - traffic woes, cheaper automatic transmissions. The factors that resist the automatic push are higher cost of automatic cars and higher maintenance of automatic transmissions. We can see that in a country like India there will always be a decent demand for the manual transmission since cost is still a major consideration for those entering the four wheel domain for the first time. In time neither of these factors will have a push and pull effect since ICE will be replaced by EVs. There is an inevitability to this. India will take a much longer time to transition to EVs thanks to our limited power generation and perennial power outages. Of course cost of EVs too is a factor against EVs.

One other point that was made is that people must learn on manual shift since this gives them a feel and understanding of gear shifting etc. I beg to differ since in most developed countries people learn on automatics. Of course it is much easier to drive automatics so why not learn on them!

[GreasyCarb55]

Originally Posted by Gypsian

As an MT lover all that I can do is to hope that MT co-exists with other transmissions.

This will happen but will most probably not be affordable to most people.

I believe that companies like Tremec and some niche companies will continue to manufacture manual transmissions for a small and niche market that is interested in Manual transmissions but they will cost a lot.

Popular manual transmissions from a company like Tremec cost around $3200 USD for a new 6 Speed and Manual/Sequential gearboxes from companies like PPG and Drenth that make them for specific enthusiast cars/engines (R32 GTR, Honda K-Series, GM LS3 etc) will cost a lot as those can range from $8,000 to $16,000.

Will manual transmissions survive? - Yes

Will they be accessible to your average enthusiast? - No

I'd say by 2030-2032 all real manual transmissions (the ones where you have to physically depress the clutch to change gear) will be gone from all motor vehicles and be replaced by some form of automatic or an electric powertrain that doesn't need a traditional gearbox.

When electric power comes Petrol/Diesel vehicles will meet the same fate as horses when Automobiles were first introduced, they'll go from daily transportation to playthings for the rich.

[NFS2024]

Automatics are all about convenience, nothing more, nothing less.

Once you get used to it, it doesn't really matter if we are driving an AMT, iMT, DCT or what not. They may not offer the best driving experience, but the convenience beats it. Am never going back to an MT car.

[praveen_v]

For many years now those who wanted automatics for convenience were having to compromise due to limited options and lose out on variant choices while still paying much more. Now that balance is shifting towards automatics since majority of the city driving population is preferring convenience over cost or lower efficiency.

My last two car choices had to be compromised in some way due to the requirement of automatic over the last 10 years, but now for the next one there are plenty of choices to choose from, cost being the only major factor now.

That said, many of the auto boxes like the latest gen TC/DCT offer great performance and can be still enjoyed by enthusiasts. Surprisingly the iMT offered by the Korean twins gives best of both worlds and is an excellent option, so much so that I shifted my choice from DCT and got a iMT and actually enjoying it a lot. Saved a lot of money over full auto, having precise control on shifts, good FE, no complicated systems, while still providing the convenience and costing just a small fraction over the manual variant.

These iMTs are a win-win in almost all the fronts and not sure why other manufacturers are not offering it. It is so much better than laggy/jerky AMTs while costing less. But manuals are going to be around as long as ICE exists but will be progressively pushed to the lower variant as it addresses the cost conscious audience while the higher variants will be placed towards convenience!!

[car-go]

I guess manufacturers are slowly but surely 'shifting gears' to automatics from manuals.

I have always driven (and owned) manuals, until recently when I changed my SX4 for a Jeep Compass Sport. I whole-heartedly wanted the petrol manual when I started my search, however the dealership told me that it is being discontinued. I did ask them that it still shows up on their website, but they said that it is mostly to display low starting $$ for the range. Hence, I settled (in fact was in two minds as my left knee has developed osteo pain since last 2-3 yrs) for the petrol automatic.

Later I learnt, courtesy TBhp and few other connects, that petrol manuals are rolled out of Jeep's factory assembly lines in limited numbers (and perhaps the dealership had more of automatics in stock).

[volkman10]

More manual transmission sales indicate shifting trend in US car market.

Sales of new manual-equipped cars increased to 1.7% of the total market this year, up from 0.9% in 2021.

Link

[Aroy]

My take is slightly different.

A gear box is designed for a certain torque range. So in this case for every new design if the engine torque increases the gearbox has to be upgraded. That is two designs, one manual and one auto.

As the demand for manual decreases the number of takers for manual also decreases, till it is no longer economically feasible to design a new manual gearbox. Off hand the case of Ford Endevour comes to my minf. There is manual oiption for the smaller engine, but only auto for the larger engine (more torque?).

Hence in my opinion manual gearbox for higher powered cars will is on the way out, unless it is limited edition vehicle with enough buyers.

For cars at the lower end, that sell in hundreds of tousands, manual gearbox will remain as long as there is demand, as :
. The numbers are large
. The engine torque increase is minimal year to year.

[needforspeed88]

AMT's despite their recent improvements are still very clunky and slow. I don't see the under 12lakh segment which constitutes the lion share of the market going the AMT way. A good DCT option is a viable option but right now it borders around 15 lakhs on road even in a compact SUV like Sonet. The likes of Swifts, Tiagos, Balenos etc aren't going the DCT way any time soon. Until the EV becomes mainstream the mass market segment aka under 12 lakh segment is going to be dominated by the manual transmissions.

[Reinhard]

Originally Posted by needforspeed88

AMT's despite their recent improvements are still very clunky and slow. I don't see the under 12lakh segment which constitutes the lion share of the market going the AMT way. A good DCT option is a viable option but right now it borders around 15 lakhs on road even in a compact SUV like Sonet. The likes of Swifts, Tiagos, Balenos etc aren't going the DCT way any time soon. Until the EV becomes mainstream the mass market segment aka under 12 lakh segment is going to be dominated by the manual transmissions.

Actually - a large portion of exactly this segment - around 10L - is picking the AMTs over manuals en masse. The sales numbers are very high. Key points about it IMO -

1. There is no chance that the budget cars will get anything better than AMT. In fact - cars that used to have CVT, are now shifting to AMT - even advertised premium ones like the Baleno.
2. While people may not like AMT - its the only option available in their budget & they take it.
3. We shouldn't look at the AMT as a transmission for someone who is looking for a fast, lossless acceleration to the next turn / signal. AMT while the worst of all auto-boxes - is a big improvement in convenience over an MT.
4. Remember that still a large % of cars are used mainly for daily chores/errands and office commutes in heavily crowded urban areas. In these areas - a large car as a beater is also impractical. So a not-so-loved cheap to own car with small footprint & some sort of AT is what the owners actually want. AMT hatchbacks cover all these bases, while also making the drive much less stressful for the people who are not very comfortable with MTs in traffic.
   As a hassle free automatic point A to point B car - it works.
5. For most of the average buyers / first car buyers - a cheaper to own AMT car makes a lot of sense. After getting used to it - they can eventually upgrade to their next car with a fancier transmission.
6. Given the more than healthy sales of AMT equipped cars - I don't see why the car makers will kill this golden egg laying goose, and try to bring costlier automatics in cheaper cars. The AMT as a technical setup is fairly simpler and cost effective to make compared to other ATs. Yet - the carmakers are actually minting large premiums on the AMT versions compared to MTs.

[for_cars1]

Based on multiple accounts from acquaintances, the pressure to go for an automatic usually comes from someone in the house who doesn't know or is not fully comfortable with driving a manual (For example: A person prefers to buy a manual but yields to pressure from his wife or children to buy an automatic because then "All" at home can drive the same automatic car comfortably).
Due to the above trend, the market share of automatics is sure to almost eclipse the manual transmission vehicles sales in case of vehicles running on oil.
For EVs, due to the wide torque band right from zero rpm, there is no concept of manual (and shifting) and only automatics here.

However, manual transmissions will never stop being produced (for ICE vehicles). Its not just about the convenience part of the automatic, manuals are a joy and engaging to drive.
Also manual transmissions offer much better drivability than an automatic in case of smaller capacity engines (with lesser power and torque).
A large powerful car? sure go for an automatic. (like most do in the US)
A small low capacity engine car ? - manual makes better sense (thats why manuals are still popular in Europe with their narrow roads and small cars)
That is why

[wolf_lone]

Originally Posted by for_cars1

Also manual transmissions offer much better drivability than an automatic in case of smaller capacity engines (with lesser power and torque).
A large powerful car? sure go for an automatic. (like most do in the US)
A small low capacity engine car ? - manual makes better sense (thats why manuals are still popular in Europe with their narrow roads and small cars)
That is why

In your opinion what is the engine capacity from where automatics makes sense ?