[dsr001]

Originally Posted by Maky

Didn't Volkswagen discontinuing TDI have more to do with diesel gate rather than anything else?

Cost of complying with emission norms would make the product unviable from manufacturer perspective: seems that Suzuki and VW were much more careful about this.

Yes, dieselgate would've been the cause for such importance being given to the emissions parts.

[guptad42]

Originally Posted by drsachin

What about import dependence on battery packs, electric motors and chargers.
1. Tata Nexon EV is 60-80% made in china. All the functional parts except chasis is made in china.
2. MG ZS EV is 100% made in china. Completely built in china sold as knocked down units.

Why tax rebates on made in china products.

Present battery technologies is highly lithium dependent. There are no lithium mines in India. Battery technologies other then lithium are still at very immature stage. China either owns or has on lease almost all of lithium mines in the world. So shifting to EV technologies means shifting import dependence on petroleum products to import dependence on china. Even US is worried about this aspect without any solution.

Make in India lithium battery may never succeed thanks to above reasons.

Hybrids is a way to go as they require smaller lithium batteries till battery ecosystem problem is solved by India/Western economies

Batteries make sense for India even at 100% Lithium import! You may be shocked by my statement. There are simple reasons for this, but not very well understood. Our business media has also done a lousy job of presenting the factual picture, probably because fear-mongering on China get more TRPs.

1. Most people confuse battery manufacturing scale with Lithium reserves. Search for the top countries with Lithium reserves. China does not even figure in the top 3! The top 3 are Chile, Australia, and Argentina. China comes a distant 4th. In fact, the top 3 combined have > 10 times more Lithium than China. 15 million tons compared to Chinese reserves of about 1.5 million tons.

China has scale in building battery factories, but we can also build that. We can import thousands of tons of Lithium from Australia if we want to, under the Australia India Free trade agreement. We can encourage Indian companies to own lithium mines in Australia or Chile.

2. We have a dangerous import dependence already in place. Majority of our crude oil comes from either the Middle East. Think about it - our largest national expense goes into countries where the oil wealth is known to fund terrorism through petrodollars, creating a national security problem for us. It is a necessary evil today, but an energy system based on renewables and batteries can final kill our oil & gas dependence and give us true freedom in our foreign policy.

3. An EV needs to import lithium for batteries only once. For running the same km distance in an ICE car, we have to import more and more crude oil every month!

EV batteries contain valuable materials that are still all there at the end of the life of the battery pack in a car - the lithium and cobalt are still in the battery. Where as the petroleum we import and use in the car literally goes up in smoke.

Commercial recycling already recovers 92-95% of EV battery minerals, and companies like Redwood, Tesla, VW, LG Chem, Panasonic are pushing it towards 98%. Even at only 70% recovery and 2020 data on material used in EV batteries, an average EV consumes only 30 kg of battery material vs 17,000 litres of petrol in an average car in its lifetime. There is just no comparison.

(I don't want to copy paste without asking for permission. So you can check out this graphic on page 42 of the T&E report on battery materials vs oil. https://www.transportenvironment.org...port_final.pdf)

Politically, economically, socially - it makes zero sense to continue our dependence on crude oil & gas when we finally have a choice. And this is before counting the impact on the health of Indians from the millions of tons of oil & gas that goes up in smoke in our vehicles. People like Mr Toyoda (Toyota's boss) and Mr Bhargava (Suzuki India boss) are pushing decades old hybrid tech on India for personal gain, only because they do not have competitive EV battery technology or scale. They are worries about losses from writing off factories built up for ICE cars. Essentially, doing an anti-India job, though their own greed and fear may not let them see it that way.

I think our govt understands this, and that's the reason for the PLI scheme for making EV batteries in India.

[guptad42]

Originally Posted by Livnletcarsliv

EVs are definitely not an option in India for at least the next 5 years. Period. The reason why EV's growth rate/sales rate YoY is triple-digit is because of the initial wave. Once there are enough EVs on road, we don't have enough power generation to charge the EVs (let alone the charging infra). While still there are power cuts, load-sheddings, distribution challenges, etc, that are normal across the country, imagine the demand for power increase by 100%-200% within 1-2-3 years.

Let us also not forget the source of power generation. Still, fossil fuels account for approx. 60% of power generation in India. This significant increase in power demand will only increase the share of fossil fuels at least for the next few years.

And regarding Honda in EV, it is too far from even a decent model launch. IT will be at least 3-4 years to get a proper and affordable EV from the likes of Toyota & Honda. The only option for Honda to stay relevant in India is to bring some of its international models like the Civic, CRV, Accord, and/or other small-size models even if it sells in small numbers. At least something is better than nothing for Honda.

So far, we don't have (as far as I know) any data to prove that the government is on the right track. While our government talks about going green, in reality, the situation is totally different. For eg - there is no subsidy in TN for both 2/4 wheeler EVs, no subsidy/tax reduction for solar panels for power generation (it is very expensive to install a 1KVA/3KVA solar power for a home), no policy for power self-sustenance/at least partial self-sustenance for commercial and apartment buildings.
I am sure the situation in other states may be worse. This is a wait-and-watch space, especially with respect to the government (both center and state).

Our problems in power are due to mismanagement, like not keeping enough coal stocks ready for peak season, not accounting for drop in coal shipment during monsoons etc. It actually makes localised, distributed generation of renewable power more attractive to the public. You can already see this trend in parts of the country - people are giving up state govt subsidy on solar to install hybrid inverters (instead of grid online ones).

Generation: Look up the data on capital going into renewable generation in India vs coal generation. Majority of new capacity is in renewables already. The reason is not just environment. Coal power is now costlier than renewables. India is already one of the world leaders in new renewable capacity added even year.

There are other factors in support of EVs - EVs do not need to place additional demand on the grid during power shortages. For example, EVs can be charged during the day when solar production is at peak, because EVs have their own storage in the form of batteries. Charging tariffs can be made time dependent to incentivise this - cheap power if you charge at low demand/peak production times, expensive power if you do it during peak demand times. It is not always possible to defer other power consumption like this.

Honda and Toyota: Have they ever managed to produce a successful mass market car for India even in the petrol/diesel age? These companies do not know how to operate on India's scale and price points. Toyota is trying to learn it from Suzuki, but their global problems may sink them before they achieve scale here.

I agree with you completely that Honda and Toyota will not be able to produce an affordable EV for India for next 3-4 years. Probably longer. But we don't have to wait for Honda and Toyota. Do we?

Subsidy on renewables: Even the states that now provide subsidy for solar will slowly stop. Because it is gradually starting to make financial sense to add solar to new houses even without govt subsidy. It works out cheaper than paying full price for power in locations with enough daylight days in a year. (except if you are getting free power. The reality of state finances is that govts don't have the money to pay for free power. Delhi is the only real exception, with enough cashflow to support the power subsidy. Central govt has also stopped writing off state loans for power. )

Power companies discourage rooftop solar for the same reason - it hurts them commercially, by making their retail price uncompetitive. Even net metering at full retail price credit will slowly go away.

[reppy]

Originally Posted by guptad42

1. Most people confuse battery manufacturing scale with Lithium reserves. Search for the top countries with Lithium reserves. China does not even figure in the top 3! The top 3 are Chile, Australia, and Argentina. China comes a distant 4th. In fact, the top 3 combined have > 10 times more Lithium than China. 15 million tons compared to Chinese reserves of about 1.5 million tons.

Do read this:
https://cen.acs.org/energy/energy-st...market/100/i38

China may not control the mines, but they control 60% of all Lithium processing worldwide.

Considering that there are alternative friends out there for oil supply, including Russia, would you still completely depend on a singular dear-good-nonviolent-border-neighbour, China, for batteries?

India's on going missions of encouraging CNG, Hybrids, Fuel Cell and Hydrogen technologies should be encouraged to reduce our dependencies.

Batteries can be one of the techs, but not the main one for now.

EDIT: Dear OP, sorry for going off topic! As far as Honda's concerned, I think no one cares anymore!

[drsachin]

Originally Posted by guptad42

Batteries make sense for India even at 100% Lithium import! You may be shocked by my statement. There are simple reasons for this, but not very well understood. Our business media has also done a lousy job of presenting the factual picture, probably because fear-mongering on China get more TRPs.

We can import thousands of tons of Lithium from Australia if we want to, under the Australia India Free trade agreement. We can encourage Indian companies to own lithium mines in Australia or Chile.


I think our govt understands this, and that's the reason for the PLI scheme for making EV batteries in India.

Sir your information is only partially correct.

It's true that china comes at number four when it comes to lithium manufacturing, in fact it ony has just 10% of world lithium deposits.

But there are three well known facts which has put even developed countries like US into spot of bother without any answers. I am not putting any links ,just google them and there are tons of links available.
The facts are provided in "World energy outlook 2022"

1. China controls 60% of world lithium production.
2. China does almost 80-90% of lithium processing.
3. China does almost 90% of rare metal processing.

China since a very early time knew that lithium is "White Gold" and its going to be future replacement for petroleum products. So it invested heavily in lithium production. So what has china done differently which other countries such as US are finding difficult to match. Both Australia and Chile although have the most lithium deposits, but they don't have the Knowhow to mine this white metal, neither do they have the funds necessary for complex lithium processing industries. China capitalised on this weakness and took large number of mines in both chile and Australia on long term lease. Numerous battery manufacturers in china not only have vast lithium deposits in china at there disposal but they also long term lease contracts with these mines in both Australia and Chile. It's this vertical integration of lithium production which is putting these Chinese battery manufacturers at an advantage. This way china already controls 60% of lithium production and rest of the world including US were caught napping. Now US, Europe, India have woken up to this reality but it's a little too late.

Is it possible for India to now compete with China for this lithium race. Of course it can and it must do it but we have to accept that we are too late and we have to use our money judiciously. Lithium mining and production is a complex process and for a lithium mine to start producing viable lithium it takes 10-20 years. That a long gestation period. This is where hybrid and other similar technologies help, to buy time. If you look at present efforts by Indian battery and EV manufacturers all have gone through the cheaper and easier route of tie up with various Chinese battery manufacturers and set up "Battery assembling units" in India. Without vertical integration of lithium mining and processing these efforts are nothing but a way to fool government to get subsidies. On the other hand Chinese battery manufacturers such as BYD have fully vertically integrated battery manufacturing plants with capitive lithium mines and later they entered into EV manufacturering. I have little hopes from companies like Tata to progress in this field and i would love to prove wrong. The flag bearer of EV revolution in India have failed to produce any successful Petrol engine. They are always happy to follow easier path of paying royalty to European companies for even basic car technologies instead of developing them on there own. They are doing the same when it comes to EV and lithium batteries. Mahindra's are far better in this regard but it's too early.

In the end i am not saying that we should not invest in EV technologies. They are definitely a future and India cannot miss the bus like the way they did with semi-conductors. But with limited resources and a long gestation period they can't afford to put all eggs in one basket. They must continue to develop ICE technologies, promote hybrid technologies and use this time to enter the the future in a more matured way.

[guptad42]

Originally Posted by drsachin

Sir your information is only partially correct.

It's true that china comes at number four when it comes to lithium manufacturing, in fact it ony has just 10% of world lithium deposits.

But there are three well known facts which has put even developed countries like US into spot of bother without any answers. I am not putting any links ,just google them and there are tons of links available.
The facts are provided in "World energy outlook 2022"

1. China controls 60% of world lithium production.
2. China does almost 80-90% of lithium processing.
3. China does almost 90% of rare metal processing.

China since a very early time knew that lithium is "White Gold" and its going to be future replacement for petroleum products. So it invested heavily in lithium production. So what has china done differently which other countries such as US are finding difficult to match. Both Australia and Chile although have the most lithium deposits, but they don't have the Knowhow to mine this white metal, neither do they have the funds necessary for complex lithium processing industries. China capitalised on this weakness and took large number of mines in both chile and Australia on long term lease. Numerous battery manufacturers in china not only have vast lithium deposits in china at there disposal but they also long term lease contracts with these mines in both Australia and Chile. It's this vertical integration of lithium production which is putting these Chinese battery manufacturers at an advantage. This way china already controls 60% of lithium production and rest of the world including US were caught napping. Now US, Europe, India have woken up to this reality but it's a little too late.

Is it possible for India to now compete with China for this lithium race. Of course it can and it must do it but we have to accept that we are too late and we have to use our money judiciously. Lithium mining and production is a complex process and for a lithium mine to start producing viable lithium it takes 10-20 years. That a long gestation period. This is where hybrid and other similar technologies help, to buy time. If you look at present efforts by Indian battery and EV manufacturers all have gone through the cheaper and easier route of tie up with various Chinese battery manufacturers and set up "Battery assembling units" in India. Without vertical integration of lithium mining and processing these efforts are nothing but a way to fool government to get subsidies. On the other hand Chinese battery manufacturers such as BYD have fully vertically integrated battery manufacturing plants with capitive lithium mines and later they entered into EV manufacturering. I have little hopes from companies like Tata to progress in this field and i would love to prove wrong. The flag bearer of EV revolution in India have failed to produce any successful Petrol engine. They are always happy to follow easier path of paying royalty to European companies for even basic car technologies instead of developing them on there own. They are doing the same when it comes to EV and lithium batteries. Mahindra's are far better in this regard but it's too early.

In the end i am not saying that we should not invest in EV technologies. They are definitely a future and India cannot miss the bus like the way they did with semi-conductors. But with limited resources and a long gestation period they can't afford to put all eggs in one basket. They must continue to develop ICE technologies, promote hybrid technologies and use this time to enter the the future in a more matured way.

I do not share your pessimism.

I don't know where you got the idea that Australia does not know how to mine lithium and only China can do it. Some of the largest lithium mining facilities in Australia are Aussie owned and operated. You may think of Australia as a holiday destination with laid-back people, and that is also true. But the country has a strong science and technology base. (For example, the technology teams that led the massive scale up of Chinese solar cell production came from a solar cell research lab in Australia.)

Your approach would be perfectly valid in a mature industry that is already operating near its peak scale with not much room to grow. That is not the right frame of reference for EVs and battery tech. Since you are applying the mindset of a mature industry to a massive growth industry, it is leading to wrong conclusions.

EVs and EV batteries are an industry that will grow to 30-50 times its current size globally, or more. You are drawing future inferences based on 50-60% indirect control of 1/50th the future scale of the industry. That's effectively around 1-2% of the future size of EVs and batteries globally.

Even the technology will change drastically. Look at the recent history. Couple of years ago people were worried about sources of cobalt in NMC batteries. LFP batteries took care of it by cutting Cobalt out of the picture. Similarly, we may be scaling up Sodium Ion or other lithium-less solid state batteries in 5 to 7 years.

Yes, Chinese companies like CATL, BYD, Gotion have invested in battery R&D and materials for long. But they also want access to markets like US, Europe and India and know it cannot be done without playing by local rules. One example is the US EV incentive policy that prioritises US local manufacturing of batteries.

Let's also not forget that the battery manufacturing tech also has Japanese and Korean players like Panasonic, Samsung, and LG Chem as global scale players. Tesla's own battery research teams are based out of a Canadian research institute.

China simply does not have the lock on future of EV and battery production that you think it has. Yes, it is ahead as of now. But it is early days.

The way the world has woken up to the China risk is India's biggest opportunity right now. This is the time to attract scale in industries like EVs and batteries and solar cells and panels, power semiconductors in India. Getting pessimistic and giving up is exactly what China wants us to do. Don't fall in that trap.

[drsachin]

Originally Posted by guptad42

I do not share your pessimism.

I don't know where you got the idea that Australia does not know how to mine lithium and only China can do it. Some of the largest lithium mining facilities in Australia are Aussie owned and operated. You may think of Australia as a holiday destination with laid-back people, and that is also true. But the country has a strong science and technology base. (For example, the technology teams that led the massive scale up of Chinese solar cell production came from a solar cell research lab in Australia.)

.

What ever information I have shared is from " World energy outlook 2022". Which clearly provides evidence of growing chinese hegemony in lithium production and the various concerns arriving out of it. and I can share numerous links of various Chinese companies operating in both chile and Australia in lithium mining sector. You may in return provide evidence of various Australian or chile companies. Both chilean and Australian companies know their limitations and have welcomed chinese companies with open hands. Australian and chilean economies are hugely dependent on china which is a major concern.
I am not saying that we should not invest in EV and battery technologies but we should encourage all technologies through investments and subsidies which work towards the goal of reducing dependence on petroleum products.
Pure EVs, Strong hybrids, Plug in hybrids, hydrogen vehicles are all spectrum of Electric vehicles mobility only. And we should favour all such technologies so that we have a widespread and faster adoption. Which ever electric vehicle technology is available at cheaper rates to consumer will find easier adoption. Some companies are capable of doing that in case of Pure EVs , some in case of Strong hybrids, so we should encourage both.

I too want to move on to pure EV at some stage as it's definitely the future. But now although I can afford most pure EV vehicles available in the Mark et. But i am not interested to buy any until it can serve me in a comprehensive witz minimal limitations.

Promoting only pure EV technology is not just stupid but suicidal for a growing economy like India.

[Livnletcarsliv]

Originally Posted by guptad42

Our problems in power are due to mismanagement, like not keeping enough coal stocks ready for peak season, not accounting for drop in coal shipment during monsoons etc. It actually makes localised, distributed generation of renewable power more attractive to the public. You can already see this trend in parts of the country - people are giving up state govt subsidy on solar to install hybrid inverters (instead of grid online ones).

Generation: Look up the data on capital going into renewable generation in India vs coal generation. Majority of new capacity is in renewables already. The reason is not just environment. Coal power is now costlier than renewables. India is already one of the world leaders in new renewable capacity added even year.

There are other factors in support of EVs - EVs do not need to place additional demand on the grid during power shortages. For example, EVs can be charged during the day when solar production is at peak, because EVs have their own storage in the form of batteries. Charging tariffs can be made time dependent to incentivise this - cheap power if you charge at low demand/peak production times, expensive power if you do it during peak demand times. It is not always possible to defer other power consumption like this.

Honda and Toyota: Have they ever managed to produce a successful mass market car for India even in the petrol/diesel age? These companies do not know how to operate on India's scale and price points. Toyota is trying to learn it from Suzuki, but their global problems may sink them before they achieve scale here.

I agree with you completely that Honda and Toyota will not be able to produce an affordable EV for India for next 3-4 years. Probably longer. But we don't have to wait for Honda and Toyota. Do we?

Subsidy on renewables: Even the states that now provide subsidy for solar will slowly stop. Because it is gradually starting to make financial sense to add solar to new houses even without govt subsidy. It works out cheaper than paying full price for power in locations with enough daylight days in a year. (except if you are getting free power. The reality of state finances is that govts don't have the money to pay for free power. Delhi is the only real exception, with enough cashflow to support the power subsidy. Central govt has also stopped writing off state loans for power. )

Power companies discourage rooftop solar for the same reason - it hurts them commercially, by making their retail price uncompetitive. Even net metering at full retail price credit will slowly go away.

While I am talking more specific to Honda's future in India, even otherwise, problems are problems. The Infra for charging EV's in India is still years away.

I also don't buy the idea of only charging the EV during the day when the solar power generation is at peak. There are no incentive plans currently and there are no government policies (centre and state) for EV adoption and power generation. Looking at the horizon, the pathway is still unclear and undefined.

[Venkatesh]

Honda Amaze diesel variants discontinued in India.

The diesel variants of the WR-V and City are expected to follow suit as well.

Source

[athalaga]

The Japs have all made a joint decision to push India into the Hybrid zone.
The Indian and Korean manufacturers will continue with all options, Diesel, Gasoline and EV.

Can the Japs dictate the market?

[Carma2017]

Originally Posted by athalaga

The Japs have all made a joint decision to push India into the Hybrid zone.
The Indian and Korean manufacturers will continue with all options, Diesel, Gasoline and EV.

Can the Japs dictate the market?

You are correct in saying that the Japanese OEMs have decided Diesel is not the future. Diesel vehicles were never sold much in Japan and thanks to VW, they were even more convinced that a dirty fuel like Diesel will never be part of their future plans.

But there is still an intense debate as to what is the future. The Japanese OEMs have been late to the EV party as they genuinely do not believe it is the future for the world owing to need for charging infra, electricity source concerns and battery related concerns. But EVs are fashionable, thanks to Tesla, and they cannot afford to stay away. So, the strategy is simple for most J-OEMs. For retro fitment applications, Hybrid is the way to go. Retrofitted EVs have too many compromises, especially too achieve good safety ratings. Hence, EVs would mostly come in New born dedicated platforms even if they are delayed.

The Japanese OEMs are very impressed by MoRTH approach of focus on multiple types of Powertrain options to hedge risks and prevent overt dependency on anyone nation for Raw materials.

[athalaga]

Diesel will continue to occupy its space, emission regulations are the same for gasoline and diesel going forward. The aftertreatment is tried and tested. Eu 7 norms are out.

Heavier SUVs need Diesels or Hybrids, EVs of that size will be very expensive.
Eventually all will settle down into their space and coexist.

[HammerHead]

Its so funny that Honda took ages to build and bring on diesel engines in India and when they managed to get them, the industry moved to petrol/EV!!

Now they are taking ages to bring in Venue/Sonet and Creta/Seltos rival, and I'm sure when they do, pure petrol engine cars would be of less demand as the market would move towards mild/strong hybrids.

I like the way Toyota & Suzuki clubbed to bring in hybrids.

[Traveler]

Originally Posted by HammerHead

Its so funny that Honda took ages to build and bring on diesel engines in India and when they managed to get them, the industry moved to petrol/EV!!

Now they are taking ages to bring in Venue/Sonet and Creta/Seltos rival, and I'm sure when they do, pure petrol engine cars would be of less demand as the market would move towards mild/strong hybrids.

I like the way Toyota & Suzuki clubbed to bring in hybrids.

I think Honda will bring in the eHEV hybrid powertrain to the upcoming SUV for sure. They ought to have learned from their mistakes.

The City eHEV is quite good and has also most no rubber band effect. It's quite refined and economical too.

I think they will atleast offer the hybrid variant as an option.

[AmazeGuru]

Having driven the 1st gen Amaze diesel for 1,25,000+ kms over 9 years, I am really sad to hear this news. It is a gem of a diesel engine and I never had a single problem with it nor had a feeling of underpower. It always had more juice whenever I was driving.

On top of this, they introduced a CVT which was a masterstroke. It's a shame that they were not able to capitalize the goodness in the engine.

PS: Coincidentally I sold my Amaze diesel just a month ago and bought Sonet GTX+ DAT.