[Redex]

Hi SKC-auto

At this moment in time the only practical option for car owners is BEV because so few car makers have an FCEV. That combined with very few Hydrogen filling stations, currently only 13 in the UK, 76 in Germany, 39 in the USA.

Only 2 FCEVs are available in the UK, Toyota Mirai and the Hyundai ix35 (500 to 600km range !!!). In the next few years more will become available from the Honda Clarity, Hyundai Xcient (BMW, Audi, Mercedes Benz, Lotus, Ford, GM, Nissan, Fiat, Mazda, Chevrolet, Kia, Renault and PSA are also planning FCEVs).

I agree that the efficiency of generating renewable Green Hydrogen is only about 25%, but the wasted 75% is not producing any pollution !!! nor is the FCEV just water !!!

Conventional IC engines are about 20% efficient, from fuel to wheels.

Fully electric cars are about 60% efficient from the power grid to power at the wheels. They are producing polluting Co2 from the original generation of the electricity as so many electric car drivers seem to forget. However you also have to consider how inefficient the power stations are. Indian coal fired power stations are only 32% efficient on average, some are less than 20% (and account for over half of the electricity supplied). Asian fossil fuel power stations also produce the most Co2. Don't forget the Co2 produced mining the coal and getting it to the power station. Add to that power grid transmission losses of 8 to 15%. So overall only 17% of the energy put into the power station reaches the wheels of an all electric car.

Therefore your "all electric" car is actually producing more Co2 and is less efficient than a modern conventional IC car. You are just moving the pollution from the city to the power station. As happens in most countries that rely heavily on fossil fuels.

Green hydrogen is by far the cleanest and most convenient option overall ( or will be when the infrastucture is available). Within 10 years most fuel stations will also supply hydrogen, even India plan to do the same (Google it).

As a side note, existing IC engines can also be converted to run on Green Hydrogen gas. That would save millions of IC engines, cars, 2 wheelers, trucks, buses, machinery etc. from becoming obsolete. They can be recycled with hydrogen power and further save wasting the planets resources.

Regards Neil

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by Redex

Green hydrogen is by far the cleanest and most convenient option overall ( or will be when the infrastucture is available). Within 10 years most fuel stations will also supply hydrogen, even India plan to do the same (Google it).
As a side note, existing IC engines can also be converted to run on Green Hydrogen gas. That would save millions of IC engines, cars, 2 wheelers, trucks, buses, machinery etc. from becoming obsolete. They can be recycled with hydrogen power and further save wasting the planets resources.
Regards Neil

You need to revisit your numbers, you are comparing EVs running on coal to renewable generated green hydrogen. Please find how different tech line up when starting with 100% renewables.

You cannot convert an ICE engine to run on Hydrogen, please share any evidence if you have.

You accept that green hydrogen is possible even in India in 10 years produced by wasting 75% energy but do not believe in 100% renewables powered EVs in India. Whether it is EV or FCEV a countries power generation does not change.

What's stopping FCEV if it can prove as a tech, you are saying 13 stations in whole of UK and there are ~13000 EV charging stations in UK.

I am only trying to point here is we did not understand the hydrogen tech fully, all that we heard about hydrogen and it's enormous benefits came only from media which was paid by companies who do not want EV progress.

[Redex]

Hi SKC-auto,

I appreciate your comments. Not going to argue about statistics. My example is from the real world. It is intended to compare Green Hydrogen (produced by using renewable energy) versus conventional mains electricity. When you re-charge any electric vehicle, you plug into the grid. The grid supplies electricity that is produced by burning fossil fuels 63%, renewable 26 % and nuclear 11% (as a whole world average). Until the grid is 100% renewable energy you cannot have all electric cars running 100% renewable electricity. You cannot choose to charge your car with renewable electricity only. (obviously there will be the chosen few who have their own wind turbine, hydro or solar supply at home)

Therefore the energy used to run your ALL electric car is in fact 63% fossil fuel, with all the pollution and Co2 that goes with it.
What that means is that for every 100km you drive your ALL electric car, 63km are powered by fossil fuels, 26km by renewable fuel and the last 11km are powered by nuclear energy.

When the infrastructure exists you will be able to choose to run your hydrogen powered car by Fuel Cell or Hydrogen ICE, using 100% renewable electricity. As in "Green Hydrogen".

Google "convert ICE to hydrogen". Isaac de Rivas produced a hydrogen ICE in 1807, 75 years before the first electricity grid. There is nothing new about HICEV vehicles. BMW produced a hydrogen powered car "BMW Hydrogen 7", a limited production run of 100 models from 2005 to 2007. This used the 6 litre V12 from the 760i car, converted to run on hydrogen. Over 10 years ago Mahindra produced the Hy-Alfa , a 3 wheel hydrogen powered ICE vehicle. Ford, Mazda, Aston Martin and several other have made HICEV examples.

Nothing is stopping the development of hydrogen FCEV, it is only just beginning. Just like EV charging points are popping up everywhere, the first practical all electric cars appeared in about 1995. 25 years later charging points are slowly catching up.

Yes hydrogen does waste 75% of the electricity needed to produce it. But imagine that you produce your electricity from solar or wind or water turbines. What have you wasted. Hydrogen is ideal for storing the energy produced by renewable means.

I find your quote interesting "I am only trying to point here is we did not understand the hydrogen tech fully, all that we heard about hydrogen and it's enormous benefits came only from media which was paid by companies who do not want EV progress."

All of the major car manufactures have looked at FCEVs some are already planning to go into production.

BMW has confirmed that its i Hydrogen Next technology will go on sale in 2022, with a new model, based on the current X5, becoming the first to feature the powertrains of cars see the future of the electric car as powered by a hydrogen fuel cell.

A 2017 survey of 1,000 global auto executives concluded hydrogen fuel cell technology will ultimately outperform battery-powered electric vehicles.

“Toyota has long maintained that hydrogen fuel cell technology could be a zero-emission solution across a broad spectrum of vehicle types,” he said."

The auto industry as a whole has not embraced Musk’s battery-or-bust vision of the future. A 2017 survey of 1,000 senior auto executives conducted by KPMG found they believe hydrogen fuel cells have a better long-term future than electric cars and will represent “the real breakthrough” (78 percent), with the auto executives citing the short refueling time of just a few minutes as a major advantage. Sixty-two percent told KPMG that infrastructure challenges will result in the battery-powered electric vehicle market’s undoing.

An interesting conversation. Thank you.

Come back to me in 10 years, if I am wrong I will buy you a beer. If I am right you can buy me one next time I come to India. I should be there now, I usually spend 4 months of our winter in Goa, but Covid has prevented that.

Stay safe.
Regards Neil

[SKC-auto]

Now Japan may ban ICE cars in mid 2030s. Have to see if they move towards Hydrogen economy or move towards BEVs.

https://www.autonews.com/regulation-...medium=twitter

[StarrySky]

Originally Posted by Redex

You cannot choose to charge your car with renewable electricity only.

You can in Finland. Companies offer electricity contracts where you can choose the source of electricity.

Some examples:

Fortum
Helen
Nordic Green Energy (in Finnish) - In the table given on the page, first column is for Hydroelectricity, second column is wind-based and third is solar.

However, given the production is not 100% renewable, I don't know what happens if the demand for renewable energy is more than production. Perhaps they offer only a limited number of such contracts - for eg: at the Fortum link above, there is no option currently to order a contract with 100% wind source.

[Redex]

Hi,

I did point out that what I was saying is based on a global "average". There will always be exceptions, some countries will have a higher percentage of renewable and others will have a higher percentage of nuclear or fossil fuel generation. That said electricity production in Finland is 33% nuclear and 19% fossil fuel. (India currently has about 75% of its electricity production from fossil fuels).

Yes I agree you can choose to buy "renewable" electricity in Finland. You can also choose to buy "renewable" electricity in Great Britain.

It is an ethical choice to "buy" renewable and will help those companies develop further sources of renewable energy. The country can only "sell" the amount of renewable energy it produces, at that point no further contracts are accepted. But if you choose to buy "renewable" energy that just shifts the balance of fossil fuel production to the other consumers, so the environment gains nothing !!!

Only time will tell about the success of FCEVs. Japan was responsible for the first production FCEV. The "practical" FCEV has been around for over 20 years with Toyota, Honda and Hyundai currently leading the way, all have models available now. Mercedes, Chevrolet, Nissan and Ford have produced models for the leasing market since 2003.

I expect the switch to FCEV vehicles to be lead by trucks, buses, trains and heavy haulage. China produced 850 FCEV buses for the home market last year, Japan registered 3,500 FCEVs last year and South Korea currently have over 5,000 FCEVs. As the refilling infrastructure grows more small vehicles and cars will become available.

This currently is the one area where BEVs have the advantage because it is much easier and faster to build "recharging" points and it can even be done at home. Although it is yet to be seen if the infrastructure will be able to cope with the additional demand. In the UK we will need to double power production from nuclear reactors to cope with everyone re-charging their cars over night, unless people can be persuaded to charge their vehicles throughout the day. We have enough power and energy to meet the demand but not all at once.

Hydrogen will only be available from dedicated centres like conventional petrol stations. We had a phase when cars could be run on LPG and ended up with about 1,400 filling stations, even though it never really took off with the public. So I would expect it to take 20 years to become commonplace but will start to become more available within 5 years on a limited scale.

Stay safe.
Neil

[sgiitk]

Remember UK is a small country, so settling for EV/Hydrogen is a no brainer. If I remember correctly Lands-end to John O'Groats is about 786 miles.

They have used up almost all North Sea Oil. They also have a decent Nuclear power programme. I suspect the impact on the Gulf States will be huge.

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

Remember UK is a small country, so settling for EV/Hydrogen is a no brainer. If I remember correctly Lands-end to John O'Groats is about 786 miles.

They have used up almost all North Sea Oil. They also have a decent Nuclear power programme. I suspect the impact on the Gulf States will be huge.

The distance is 1347kms. If you are interested check the below video, this trip done at legal speeds was to test charging times, charging infra in UK on a Tesla model 3.

Journey time: 15h 46m
Charging time: 1h 31m
No. of charging stops:4
Avg time for charging: 23 mins

Anyone who thinks they can do 1347 kms without stopping for more than 1h 30m should stick with their ICE car.

https://youtu.be/aBEAGLSr7rg

[Venkatesh]

UK launches green number plates to help identify EVs.



The plates feature a green flash down the left-hand side, with only fully zero emission vehicles eligible. Hybrids and plug-in hybrids are therefore not allowed.

TopGear

[Venkatesh]

McLaren CEO Admits UK’s ICE ban Is Challenging.

It is challenging. We had 2035 in our mind as the sort of pivot point for EV. Our business plan now progressively moves to hybrid. All of the significant launches going forward will be hybrid cars,” he said. “I think by 2026, we’ll be fully hybridized right across the range. We will probably do our first EV supercar in the latter part of the decade, so 2028, 2029.

What we don’t have yet in the world is the infrastructure to support running electric cars,” he said. “Right now, I think the U.K. sales are like 2, 3, 4 percent electric cars. To move that to 100 percent, we just don’t have the infrastructure to charge cars, to support them. What the governments almost don’t realize is the bigger challenge, for them, is to put the infrastructure in place, not for the manufacturers to make the car. There’s some great electric cars in the world, even now.

Source

[Redex]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

Remember UK is a small country, so settling for EV/Hydrogen is a no brainer.
They have used up almost all North Sea Oil.

Hi sqiitk.

UK oil consumption from the North Sea has been dropping since 2000, cheaper oil is available from the rest of the world. We currently import from 12 countries outside of the North Sea Oil Fields, so these imports will just increase to supplement the demand. Depending on who you believe there is enough oil left to last another 15 to 35 years (2055). Due to cost and environmental reasons it is likely that North Sea oil production will stop and approximately 35% of the oil will be left there. North Sea oil has always been very expensive, and it should really have been left there until all other sources had dried up.

Regards Neil

[Redex]

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

The distance is 1347kms. If you are interested check the below video, this trip done at legal speeds was to test charging times, charging infra in UK on a Tesla model 3.

Journey time: 15h 46m
Charging time: 1h 31m
No. of charging stops:4
Avg time for charging: 23 mins
Range left at end of trip ?
Cost per 100kms: 223 to 347 Rupees Fast charge stations in the U.K.
Average speed: 85kph
Best scenario cost of trip 1,115 to 1,735 Rupees

Do that trip in a hydrogen FCEV Toyota Mirai, already available to buy outright in the U.K. (it has already been done by a longer route 1783km) and the same trip would look like this:

Journey time: 14hr 48m
Refuelling time : 8 mins
Refuelling stops : 2
Range left at end of trip : 633kms !!!
Cost per 100kms 1073 Rupees
Average speed: 91kph
Best scenario cost of trip 14,440 Rupees

Do the same trip in my 16 year old 1.8TDDI Ford Focus:

Journey time : 14hr 44m
Refuelling time: 4m
Refuelling stops: 1
Range left at end of trip: 637kms !!!
Cost per 100kms: 650 Rupees
Average speed: 91 kph
Best cost scenario of trip 8,755 Rupees

Note : how the Toyota Mirai offers virtually the same "driveability" and convenience of a conventional ICE car. Range, performance and ease of use are almost the same. In time the cost of green hydrogen will fall dramatically. Without having to hang around for at least 1 hour 20 minutes waiting for a recharge and a compulsory 4 stops on the way

Maximum speed of 175kph for the Focus and Mirai, 225kph for the Tesla 3, (112kph is the limit in the U.K anyway).

0 to 100kph times, Mirai 8.9 seconds, Focus 12.1, Tesla 3.5 to 5.1 seconds (all pointless really, where are you going to get the chance to do 0 to 100kph in 3.5 seconds ?), Driving like that in the U.K. will get you a hefty fine and endorsement points on you driving licence).

I know some of you are ardent supporters of BEV, (Hybrids of all types based, especially mild hybrids, on ICE units are just tax and emissions dodgers and completely pointless). BEVs have a future for local and short journeys, especially in cities. On the open road BEVs will never be able to compete with (green hydrogen) FCEVs. Within 20 years 80% of all vehicles will be green hydrogen FCEVs. I am not raising the current electricty and hydrogen generation methods/pollution/Co2 as I believe within 20 years the demand will be met with green electricity generation.

Stay safe.
Regards Neil

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by Redex

Journey time: 15h 46m
Charging time: 1h 31m
No. of charging stops:4
Avg time for charging: 23 mins
Range left at end of trip ?
Cost per 100kms: 223 to 347 Rupees Fast charge stations in the U.K.
Average speed: 85kph
Best scenario cost of trip 1,115 to 1,735 Rupees

Do that trip in a hydrogen FCEV Toyota Mirai, already available to buy outright in the U.K. (it has already been done by a longer route 1783km) and the same trip would look like this:

Journey time: 14hr 48m
Refuelling time : 8 mins
Refuelling stops : 2
Range left at end of trip : 633kms !!!
Cost per 100kms 1073 Rupees
Average speed: 91kph
Best scenario cost of trip 14,440 Rupees

Do the same trip in my 16 year old 1.8TDDI Ford Focus:

Journey time : 14hr 44m
Refuelling time: 4m
Refuelling stops: 1
Range left at end of trip: 637kms !!!
Cost per 100kms: 650 Rupees
Average speed: 91 kph
Best cost scenario of trip 8,755 Rupees

Hi Neil,

Your data proves the very advantages of BEV.

1) Range left at end of trip does not matter because at the end of any trip you either reach your home or a hotel to start charging while you sleep, in the morning your BEV has its battery almost full.

2) Why did the FCEV had to travel 1783kms, because there are only 3 working hydrogen fuel stations in UK currently, hope they improve in next 20 years as per your expectations.

3) Your calculation showed BEVs are very cheap to run. To travel same distance FCEV = ~ 2X ICEV = ~8X BEV. FCEV tech should develop such that it costs less to run than a BEV in 20 years.

4) Let's talk realistic scenarios. There may be 0.1% UK drivers( very generous estimate) who can drive 1347kms without a food or toilet break. Most of the people do road trips with family, friends who have varying needs for a break. For a solo drive by eating food while driving, peeing in bottles an ICEV or FCEV is good with 4 mins and 8 mins stops for rest of us 1hr 30 mins is the minimum break time in a road trip.

5) Final thought, Toyota Mirai makes sense only to people who has access to a H2 refuelling station in 10-15kms. For a person who buys Mirai with a fuel station 100 kms away the range is just 440 kms, the rest 200kms range is used for traveling to and from the fuel station.

[Redex]

Hi SKC-auto,

Ouch !!! I really seem to have touched a nerve with BEV owners. I have never read such desperate arguments to justify the "benefits" of BEV over FCEV ownership.

Obviously you consider it easier to run a BEV than and ICE car ? It is currently cheaper to run a BEV and cleaner than an ICE. However the cost to run a hydrogen FCEV will be similar to a BEV. Currently the cost of H2 per 100km is 3 times the price of fossil fuel, but that is due to the current lack of demand. It will change as usage goes up. In the UK electricity from a 150kw charging point is only 1/3rd of the cost per mile compared to a diesel car.

Your points:

1: Range left at the end of trip illustrates that ICE and H2FCEV cars have used only 30km of their last fill and could still travel over 630 before filling again. So for the return trip your BEV would need to stop 8 to 9 times and wait over 3 hours on average !!. The ICE car 2 stops (over 600 kms left in tank) and H2FCEV 4 stops (over 500kms left in tank).

2. The FCEV travelled 1783kms because it started in the Orkneys an island group north of Scotland, that incidentally converts all surplus green electricity into hydrogen and now has a surplus of H2. It also followed a route combining many types of road, rather than just the shortest or fastest route.

3. There are currently 13 working H2 stations in the UK, 6 of which could be used on the Lands End/John O Groats trip. I doubt that hydrogen FCEV will ever be cheaper than a BEV to run. However in parts of America the cost of running a car on hydrogen are similar to fossil fuel per km. It is expected that H2 will drop for the current £10.00 per kg to around £3.00 per kg by 2020 and by that time 70% of filling stations will provide H2.

4. No one said you have to drive 1347, only 700/800km before refueling or running out of diesel. I routinely fill my car about every 800km (once a week). Choosing to take a break is optional in an ICE you could travel over 900kms without stopping, in a BEV you have a COMPULSORY stop every 330kms for 23 minutes.

5. When you drive an ICE car, do you drive from home to a fuel station to fill and go home again. No, of course not. The normal person anticipates their need for fuel (H2 or fossil) and takes the opportunity to fill up when passing a fuel station in their normal travels. So that point is meaningless.

Comments including driving and eating or peeing in a bottle, just demonstrate how futile the argument is when you need to resort to such details in order to make a point.

It is simple a BEV with 23 minute stops every 330km or an H2FCEV with 4 minute stops every 650km. I know which car I would rather own and drive.

As I have said before, many times, the long term future for most vehicle transport will be H2FCEV power, at least 80% of vehicles will be H2FCEV by 2030 with a supporting fuel network. Wait and see. BEVs will still account for up to 20% as they are ideally suited for short trips and cities.

Regards Neil

[SSO]

Originally Posted by Venkatesh

McLaren CEO Admits UK’s ICE ban Is Challenging.

I recently wrote a blog article on the ICE ban and quoted Mike Flewitt. My guess is McLaren will stick with hybrids for as long as they can. A move to EV would be financially impossible for them right now anyway. I also except that the ICE ban will get pushed back the closer we get to the date. Its very easy for a current government to declare a deadline a decade plus in the future when they well know they will not be around to have to enforce it.