[androdev]

We must be gracious in accepting the end of ICE technology which has enjoyed a rather underserved long shelf life. Anything that moves has gone electric several decades ago. I have no problem in accepting an EV drivetrain to replace the ICE, though I will never look at a 20K-RPM electric motor the way I do at 20K-RPM ICE.

The real problem I have is with the evolving definition of what a car should be and what a driver is allowed to do with it. Corporate economic motivations are too strong to turn "car" into a software service subscription on one hand and eliminate the driver involvement on the other. To rub salt on wounds, big brother govt continues to take away any little joy a common man can aspire to have.

A rare occasion to be a proud a resident of India!

[rajeshrajan]

Originally Posted by Sankar

0 to 100kph and beyond that? But for how long and how far?

My diesel cruiser will cruise all day @120kph and will do ~600kms before next refill..

OH yea totally get the cruise feel. For that I have a diesel that's 134 bhp two seater Isuzu arched deck. And I know what you mean about the coasting. I guess I am lucky enough to have the best of both worlds.
Oh! Yea I'll soon get that 7 kw solar as well to offset some of that carbon emissions.

[Sankar]

Originally Posted by rajeshrajan

OH yea totally get the cruise feel. For that I have a diesel that's 134 bhp two seater Isuzu arched deck. And I know what you mean about the coasting. I guess I am lucky enough to have the best of both worlds.
Oh! Yea I'll soon get that 7 kw solar as well to offset some of that carbon emissions.

No, I don't think you know what I mean when you compare it with 134BHP pickup. Not even close.

By your logic the Tiago EV will be more than enough to get a feel of the ZS EV

[Mustang_Boss]

Originally Posted by ajayc123

I like the simplicity (fewer moving parts) and almost pollution free (no exhaust, lower sound, lesser friction/ heat) nature of the EV drivetrain, and am all for research on greener batteries and tapping the unlimited potential of the eternal / always on power plant called sun.

At the same time, I don't like the sudden death of a vehicle before it reaches end of life, by a scrapping policy.

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

With 35% EV sales China is moving superfast, while Europe is still lagging behind at 16%. I am sure they will reach 100% EV sales before 2030, it will be incredibly stupid for people in EU to buy ICE vehicles after 4-5 years as they will be stuck with a depreciating asset which no one wants to buy in used markets. Also believe with Euro7 emission standards ICE is dead in Europe.

These are the challenges.
- We do not have enough copper in world to electrify all vehicles. Aluminium is an alternative, but it melts at low temperature. This is the reason why we are not using aluminum winding not even for Ceiling fans today. We tried and we opted out.
- Considering other elements used in batteries, even they are rare and china has a foothold on their supply from Africa.
- Other battery chemistries? Japan has a hold.
- Lithium availability and mining is a challenge.
- Lithium battery recycling is a challenge for a country like India. China can do it with ease. they are communist and they already deal with lot of chemicals. The output of one industry goes to another for recycling Batteries.
- China controls the Battery tech. I doubt they will share it with anyone.
- Our electrical grid wont support electrification of cars. Our current production should go up by 7-10X times for auto electrification.

Hydrogen and other alternative fuels do have a strong future based on the above presented facts. But, things and tech can change rapidly.

Before we can dream of future, we must understand the limits of one's capabilities, so we work to get the dream fulfilled.

[Electromotive]

A 2035 ICE production ban won't even have to be enforced.

By 2035 the debate won't be about ICE vs EV, it will be about whether or not to abolish private ownership of vehicles.

When there is more money to be made renting out a self driving car, why would the manufacturers and fleet operators sell you one at a reasonable price? The regular cash-flow from a subscription service is way too lucrative to not do it. For the vast majority of car users it makes all the sense in the world to subscribe to cars or pay per use - you get the benefit of a private vehicle without the need to buy one or get a driving license or pay for insurance or maintenance. It just makes too much financial sense to not own a car. We might not agree to live in pods or eat them bugs but we will subscribe to cars.

There are only two roadblocks as I see it - EV adoption and self driving tech. By the end of this decade EV ownership in developed economies will cross 60-70% anyway so that's one issue resolved. As for self driving tech, it is a lot easier to solve self driving when you don't have to account for human drivers and their unpredictability. Connected cars that talk to each other can almost guarantee zero accidents provided they run on dedicated lanes without any human driven cars. This tech is already under rapid development and making good progress. Pilot projects are already underway. That's the final hurdle removed. Almost all western cities are already self driving compatible if we remove human drivers and the vast majority of car use is intra-city travel anyway. India, should it continue to exist, will muddle along and will have the change forced upon it, as always.

In the future you will not own a car and you will be happier for it.

[ajayc123]

Originally Posted by Electromotive

Connected cars that talk to each other can almost guarantee zero accidents provided they run on dedicated lanes without any human driven cars.

Wow! Connected Autonomous Vehicle (CAVs) in Dedicated Lanes (DL) appears to be a very promising concept, and looks much simpler than ADAS based self driving vehicles in mixed lanes.

Feels so soothing to imagine that one has to drive only till you gain entry into the dedicated lane, and the automation takes over till its time to come out of the dedicated lane.

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by Mustang_Boss

These are the challenges.
- We do not have enough copper in world to electrify all vehicles.

We do have enough copper, the supply may not match the demand, more mining is required as copper is needed in solar, wind and EVs. Hydrogen cars are also EVs, they also need copper.

- Considering other elements used in batteries, even they are rare and china has a foothold on their supply from Africa.

I guess you mean Cobalt, there are LFP batteries like the ones in Nexon and MG ZS EV, where Cobalt is not used. Cobalt is used in refining petroleum, used in engine components as alloy, also used in H2 fuel cell cars as catalyst. Future EV batteries may avoid Cobalt completely.

- Other battery chemistries? Japan has a hold.
- Lithium availability and mining is a challenge.

I dont know what Japan has a hold. Most Lithium is available as brine, water is evaporated in these brine pools under sun, just like salt extraction. There may be some environmental hazards but nothing close to fracking, oil spills etc.

- Lithium battery recycling is a challenge for a country like India. China can do it with ease. they are communist and they already deal with lot of chemicals. The output of one industry goes to another for recycling Batteries.

Please explain the challenges specific to India, lead acid batteries are more harmful than lithium ion batteries, yet we are recycling them successfully, small lithium batteries on your phone is a challenge, not EV batteries.

- China controls the Battery tech. I doubt they will share it with anyone.

That's not true, South korea(LG and Samsung), Japan(Panasonic), US(Tesla), Europe(Northvolt), and many more companies also have the best tech.

- Our electrical grid wont support electrification of cars. Our current production should go up by 7-10X times for auto electrification.

Don't make your own numbers and call it a fact. I believe you are overestimating here by atleast 70-100 times, looking forward for your source information.

Hydrogen and other alternative fuels do have a strong future based on the above presented facts. But, things and tech can change rapidly.

So you say EVs don't work and need 7-10x more electricity, Hydrogen cars are 3x less efficient than EVs, in that case in your own numbers we need 21-30x more electricity? Then how do you say Hydrogen is future, something wrong?

When Hydrogen cars need Cobalt, Copper and Platinum(worried about copper think about Platinum scarcity, just try buying a small ring for your loved ones), tell me how is it the future? 99% of current Hydrogen production is grey Hydrogen, which is dirtier than directly using fossil fuels. Just find out why Toyota Mirai failed in California.

Before we can dream of future, we must understand the limits of one's capabilities, so we work to get the dream fulfilled.

Very TRUE.

[Mustang_Boss]

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

We do have enough copper, the supply may not match the demand, more mining is required as copper is needed in solar, wind and EVs. Hydrogen cars are also EVs, they also need copper.

Copper is not an infinite item like Iron. please check its availability.
Also, if you double the consumption, where would price go? Already analysts are expecting Copper prices to jump 2x-3x. Where would that leave the manufacturers?

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

Please explain the challenges specific to India, lead acid batteries are more harmful than lithium ion batteries, yet we are recycling them successfully, small lithium batteries on your phone is a challenge, not EV batteries.

Please refer
https://supplychaindigital.com/susta...-challenge-cas

The current Lithum prices do not encourage recycling. Because less profits. If the prices go up, the cost of batteries go up. Whats the cost of an EV today in india?

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

That's not true, South korea(LG and Samsung), Japan(Panasonic), US(Tesla), Europe(Northvolt), and many more companies also have the best tech.

Car batteries are different from Mobile batteries. LG does car batteries too but Tesla uses Panasonic's cells. I guess there is a reason for that.

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

Don't make your own numbers and call it a fact. I believe you are overestimating here by atleast 70-100 times, looking forward for your source information.

So you say EVs don't work and need 7-10x more electricity, Hydrogen cars are 3x less efficient than EVs, in that case in your own numbers we need 21-30x more electricity? Then how do you say Hydrogen is future, something wrong?

if Electric cars were truly that magical as you believe, we would have ditched all ICE vehicles by now. Why is not the case?

https://www.worlddata.info/asia/indi...onsumption.php

Our current power consumption per capita is ~800+ per year. Now, if you start to use a Electric car and a bike with 30 & 3 Kwh respectively.
If you charge your car 7 times a month and your bike 15 times a month, what would be your net power consumption?
800 + 12(7*30 + 15*3) = 3860.

Now consider charging losses, which are around in range 15-40%.
https://www.caranddriver.com/feature...arging-losses/

If you did the math, you wouldn't had to seek references.

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

When Hydrogen cars need Cobalt, Copper and Platinum(worried about copper think about Platinum scarcity, just try buying a small ring for your loved ones), tell me how is it the future? 99% of current Hydrogen production is grey Hydrogen, which is dirtier than directly using fossil fuels. Just find out why Toyota Mirai failed in California.

You can use Hydrogen cars as ICE cars.. but the story is more weird, complex, but there is some hope in this line. Even battery tech does, but we need some new chemistry.

[Old_Salt]

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

It is probably for SOx emissions of 15 large ships is greater than all the world cars fleet SOx emissions, as you are well aware ships use bunker fuel and cars use BS6(euro6) fuels.

As for CO2 the entire world car fleet emit atleast 4x more than entire world shipping fleet.

Nonetheless, solving emissions from cars is an easy problem to solve than the shipping emissions. We cannot sit idle in solving an easy solution until we find solution for the hard problem.

For shipping, I read that even hydrogen is also not a solution, biofuel is the way to go.

Maersk has set a net-zero emissions target for 2040 across the entire business and has also set tangible near-term targets for 2030.

They have ordered six 17,000 TEU vessels to be delivered in 2025 and will sail under the Danish flag.
The six 17,000 vessels running on green methanol will save about 800,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions annually.

They will be dual fuel engines and the design as you can see, is also, let’s say different,
Placing the accommodation block right forward allows much more cargo to be loaded.

[adityadeva]

I've posted the following video in almost every ice vs ev discussion.

And I'm shamelessly posting it again.

The ice proponents kindly take 10 minutes of your life to watch it.

This might save many lives.

https://youtu.be/1oVrIHcdxjA

EFFICIENCY

https://youtu.be/0n882p3uq6w

EV is inherently more efficient.

And motors like SyRM and axial flux motors would make Ev extremely versatile ( each motor on each wheel), no ice vehicle could match that sort of traction and with such efficiency.

https://youtu.be/6H5vtu5_SF4

Evolution of humans.

We are taught that we evolved from cavemen/ hunter gathers. Traveling on carts to horse pulled wagons to present day ice propelled vehicles.

Had it not for US president Richard Nixon, who delinked US dollar from gold reserves, and further petro-dollar treaty between Saudis and US, humanity would have been free from enslavement of dollars and petrol.

US think tank not even in their dreams thought that, the unborn ev child they killed after signing petro-dollar treaty with Saudis would rise again as Elon Musks Tesla. That was one of the biggest miscalculation of the deep state of US and oil cartel.

So I see ev as an opportunity for myself and my future generations to get away from petro-dollar slavery, deliberately imposed upon human beings, by a powerful few.

Sound.

EVs are relatively very silent than ice vehicles, which I hope government would maintain.

There are indeed practical difficulties for the nascent EVs and the battery production and recycling industry to mature.

But when compared to ice which has almost completed a century to get perfected, EVs are evolving exponentially (thanks to our ice standards which needs to be beaten for a market share). And i feel that, as in case of semiconductors , there was this Moore's law, and perhaps energy density of batteries might double exponentially over the years.

Hopefully there's a transition of attitude against EVs to an attitude of adaptation for EVs.

Hopefully we might be able to charge our EVs from our own rooftop solar energy and ofcourse we will be taxed for that.

[charanreddy]

Thank you for the informative posts. It has forced me to rethink my inclination to ICE vehicles.

Would any one have a end to end comparison study of EV vs ICE ? How much pollution each of these generate all the way from mining (EV) / Drilling (oil) to the end products ,I.e. our cars. One of the members posted this video above which directionally hinted that oil is much more pollution inducing, but would be great to have numbers so I can compare for myself.

And then We also need to figure out the cost of swapping ICE s with EVs..

Come to think of it, it’s a bad time for folks to be buying a car as ICE may depreciate very quickly in the next 5 yrs as EVs become more common. EVs are not safe as well as technology would likely adapt and become better.

Makes sense to limit one’s losses by going used!

[Sankar]

Most EV proponents think of combustion engine fence sitters as proponents of IC engines. No, ICE fence sitters are just antagonists of inconvenience. Why would anyone in their right senses be against the lower running cost and equally good or better driving experience delivered by the EV and then being able to relax inside the car with AC on without having to worry about CO poisoning?

ICE fence sitters wholeheartedly thank EV and alternate fuel proponents and adopters in leading the race towards alternate energy and for being part of the R&D for when the change really comes it will help ICE fence sitters seamlessly shift over from ICE convenience to convenient longer range EVs and better charging tech and networks.

Till then EVs are convenient when usage needs only home charging. As a city vehicle they make most sense because IC engines are most inefficient when used in city environments and often don't get to the optimum operating temperature before next shutdown running errands. As on date Diesels are very efficient and convenient for longer journeys.

Antagonists of inconvenience & uncertainty. Not proponents of ICE.

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by Mustang_Boss

Copper is not an infinite item like Iron. please check its availability.
Also, if you double the consumption, where would price go? Already analysts are expecting Copper prices to jump 2x-3x. Where would that leave the manufacturers?

Copper is available, not enough mining currently, price will jump for few years as new mines are operational, we can recycle copper 100% from old scrapped cars.

The current Lithum prices do not encourage recycling. Because less profits. If the prices go up, the cost of batteries go up. Whats the cost of an EV today in india?

Some companies like Redwood materials, founded by ex Tesla COO are extracting lithium at a profit, EVs today cost more because they are new tech, Tata would have kept substantial amount for any recalls and spending more for R&D, all this adds up to the cost.

Car batteries are different from Mobile batteries. LG does car batteries too but Tesla uses Panasonic's cells. I guess there is a reason for that.

Panasonic is not a Chinese company, Tesla also buys batteries from LG and Samsung, they use for their battery storage products.

if Electric cars were truly that magical as you believe, we would have ditched all ICE vehicles by now. Why is not the case?

This whole thread is about ditching ICE vehicles, we are still in the early adopter stage in India, don't be shocked if EVs will be more than 50% of new cars in Europe and China in 2 years.

800 + 12(7*30 + 15*3) = 3860.

The above calculation is based on 7*7*30+30*15*3 = 2820km/month.
Personal consumption will increase, but not all people plug in at the same time, 90% of cars are parked 90% of the times, so your initial 7-10x production increase is wrong. Get few solar panels on your roof, it will cover all your electricity costs.

Now consider charging losses, which are around in range 15-40%.

That 40% loss is under extreme cold temperatures according to the article, in Indian context it may be 10%.

You can use Hydrogen cars as ICE cars.. but the story is more weird, complex, but there is some hope in this line. Even battery tech does, but we need some new chemistry.

If Hydrogen fuel cell cars are 3x less efficient than EVs, Hydrogen ICE cars are even worse, see video below.

You did not tell us why Hydrogen is the future, I am wondering how you accepted Hydrogen will have any future over EVs. Toyota sold 10 Mirai in Aug, 7 Mirais in Sept in California which has some 56 fuelling stations.
How much does each fuelling station costs?
How much does it cost to maintain each station?
Cost of each kg of H2?

https://youtu.be/vJjKwSF9gT8

[wocanak]

Originally Posted by Mustang_Boss

Our current power consumption per capita is ~800+ per year. Now, if you start to use a Electric car and a bike with 30 & 3 Kwh respectively.
If you charge your car 7 times a month and your bike 15 times a month, what would be your net power consumption?
800 + 12(7*30 + 15*3) = 3860.

But we don't have 1 car plus 1 bike per capita, so 3860 is not correct.

Total registered vehicles in India is ~300 million, of this 75% is two wheelers. Assuming a population of 1.3 billion, the correct power consumption per capita with all EVs would be:

(800*1.3+(0.3*0.25)*(12*7*30)+(0.3*0.75)*(12*15*3) )/1.3 = ~1039.

So it increases from 800 to 1039. Cars do 200 km on 30 units and two wheelers do ~70km on 3 units, as per your figures this will be 16,800 km per year for car and 12,600 km per year for bikes. This is quite high, if we assume a more reasonable 12,000 km for car and 6,000 for bike, the revised number would be:

(800*1.3+(0.3*0.25)*(12*5*30)+(0.3*0.75)*(12*8*3))/1.3 = ~954

i.e. about 20% increase.

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by wocanak

(800*1.3+(0.3*0.25)*(12*5*30)+(0.3*0.75)*(12*8*3))/1.3 = ~954

i.e. about 20% increase.

Thank you, very important point, that's why we need some unbiased thinking for any research. As not all people connect their cars at the same moment, we need <10% increase in power generation. From 7-10x assumption to just 1.2x or even 1.1x.

Also, India has 28 oil refineries, if atleast 18 of them are shut, the electricity saved will be massive.

Originally Posted by Nikhil Beke

If Toyota is to take this route, not many OEMs will be interested.

This Mirai fan bought the car for 500$, sold within a year.