[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

Only two, actually:

Attachment 2058283

I'm pretty sure sooner or later they'll find a way to get around these two as well. They've isolated SARS-COV-2 from semen anyway, also documented vertical transmission (mother to child in utero) - only a matter of time when autopsies resume when they'll isolate it from bone tissue as well.

[Nalin1]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

Only two, actually:

I am no expert on these things. But can clearly understand the reasons behind.

If you are not sure about something, but cannot/impossible to admit due to the pressure, then just throw a blanket around everything so that you are not blamed later for any reason .

[NiInJa]

Originally Posted by Zen2001

That's subjective. On the other hand, many asymptomatics have also voluntarily got themselves tested by home collection of samples by approved labs.

Thats true. Some of my friends did have a good experience getting Covid testing done for their parents / self.

The problem was that the pediatrician asked to isolate which panicked my brother and his wife as my uncle stays with them and he has severe (dont know the medical term for : very High/heavy) diabetes. So they just wanted to be sure its not Covid before things got worse.

[Jeroen]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Viruses affecting behaviour is a thing

The virus affects all of our behaviours, whether we have it or not.

At work we are trying to come to terms on how to deal with this to some extent. Extensive research shows that people working from home have considerable higher stress/anxiety levels, depression etc. We are talking a factor 3-4 higher than before Covid. So it is taking a very high toll on society at large. Also, on those not infected.

In that sense I do see the point the Belgiums doctors are making; health is much more than the lack of Corona.

Of course, all these initial restrictive measure implemented by governments around the world were meant to “flatten the curve”, i.e. ensure the hospitals would not get overburdened. That has worked, for most nations, quite well.

But it is really about what makes sense now? These good Belgium doctors claim the risk to one’s health from contracting Covid are substantially less than before, as they have gained much insight into the best/effective treatments.

So if that is the case, should you not consider lifting these Covid measures as they are effecting just about everyone’s health, at a minimum on a mental level. I am not even talking about the economic impact.

The one thing that does remain the same, there is always going to be a group of people very susceptible to the virus and for whom it could be lethal. The elderly and those with some underlying medical condition. The question is an almost philosophical one. To what extent do most of us, adapt our behaviours, to protect a relative small group of fellow human beings?

To put things in a bit of personal context; due to her immune system, my wife most likely will not be able to take a “live-vaccine”. So depending on what vaccines come onto the market, she might never be protected. Currently we still have social distancing, mask, only small gatherings and all those sort of policies in place. At what point in time does her condition become her problem?

Jeroen

[Sree73]

I do track the state wise scenario on a daily basis for the last 5 months.
On my scale of severity (it's based on 5 parameters. % of Total cases / % Fatality / % Active cases / % Cases on Population & % Recovery) Maharashtra and Karnataka is still in High Severity stage.

Andhra was also in High Severity but moved into Medium few days before.

[phamilyman]

Originally Posted by Sree73

I do track the state wise scenario on a daily basis for the last 5 months.
On my scale of severity (it's based on 5 parameters. % of Total cases / % Fatality / % Active cases / % Cases on Population & % Recovery) Maharashtra and Karnataka is still in High Severity stage.

Andhra was also in High Severity but moved into Medium few days before.

Sree - shouldn't we be tracking daily infectivity ratio of tests? How many positives per test? That will show the scope of the problem more than overall numbers - it could highlight districts where the disease is out of control and others where it is not a big issue (e.g Odisha had <0.5% infectivity all through till july, while DEL and BOM had 20% at their peaks)

[Sree73]

Originally Posted by phamilyman

Sree - shouldn't we be tracking daily infectivity ratio of tests? How many positives per test? That will show the scope of the problem more than overall numbers - it could highlight districts where the disease is out of control and others where it is not a big issue (e.g Odisha had <0.5% infectivity all through till july, while DEL and BOM had 20% at their peaks)

Yes. It will be good indicator.

But, calculating the state wise positivity (Number of Positive cases on the tests done - as a percentage) on a daily basis is not very easy because getting the test data for all states is not possible.

ICMR publishes the test data across India on daily basis (Not state wise).

Some states do publish the test data, but getting it for all states on daily basis will be huge task.
Many states just publish the new cases / recovery and death only.
They do not give test statistics and I do not have the liberty of time to search for individual state details.

Meanwhile I do track similar trends for Major cities In India - Limited to Metros.

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by Nalin1

If you are not sure about something, but cannot/impossible to admit due to the pressure, then just throw a blanket around everything so that you are not blamed later for any reason .

Also known as CYA - Cover Your A**

[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by Sree73

I do track the state wise scenario on a daily basis for the last 5 months.
On my scale of severity (it's based on 5 parameters. % of Total cases / % Fatality / % Active cases / % Cases on Population & % Recovery) Maharashtra and Karnataka is still in High Severity stage.

Andhra was also in High Severity but moved into Medium few days before.

The problem with the % scale is that the real denominator of ACTUAL infections (which is easily upwards of 10 crores, by a very very conservative epidemiologic estimate) is not known and will never be known. Hence what is being documented (erroneously high too) is NOT the infection rate or infection fatality rate, but just the case incidence and case fatality rate. Stop testing and these numbers automatically go down. It's high time to just test and treat the susceptible and seriously ill while letting the mild cases (& obviously asymptomatics) let their immunity work, as it would against any Corona virus (or any respiratory virus) in the past. It's not rocket science, just politics.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by BoneCollector

The case projections in this study are based on speculations and extrapolations

Much of it is just the summation of reports from doctors and nurses of the world.

Originally Posted by Zen2001

Absolute BS. And it's easier to publish because there's no existing scientific data for review and comparison. 99% of these studies will be garbage by next year.

I posted an interview with a London-hospital physiotherapist, shocked at the post-covid patients she was having to deal with. It was shot down by some optimism-bias irrelevant objection. I don't think they are lying. Nor do I think there is a media conspiracy, because it benefits nobody. Given the influence of politicians on worldwide media, any conspiracy would be more likely to result in playing it down.

Yes, I am beginning to think that that this damn virus is affecting people's minds (somehow, even if they don't have it yet): how else could so many people, world-wide, be playing its game so effectively. From calling it a hoax, government trickery, to, well, faith disbelief and superstition. And that's the BS of these corona days.

The pregnancy and fracture thing is an old joke on the difficulty of diagnosing malaria. And... there is one virus that can cause fractures!

[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by proton

Don't do it! My son's friend from school days, now a senior army officer, in superb physical condition, tried just that, wearing protection (even PPE suit sometimes) and going about as normal. He caught the virus, was treated, recovered and warned us all not to take ANY risks.
You can also read about the critical care team in Spain, with the best velcro sealed PPE suits, who still contracted the disease, you know at which LINK.

The problem with such reasoning is the hypocrisy in it. Some people want to be super safe and take no “risk” whatsoever while expecting others to expose themselves to the risk. You need people to work at power plants, repair power lines and transformers, work at water and sewage treatment plants, grow food, transport it, process it, sell it and deliver it. You want employees to work at banks and clearing houses, internet and telephone facilities, you want the police and fire brigade to be staffed. You expect someone to repair the road. If you get sick you expect the ambulance driver to take the “risk”, you expect doctors, nurses, cashiers and cleaning staff to work so you can get medical care. You expect the chemist to open his or her shop so you can buy medicines. You expect over 30 to 50% of people to go out and work so you can sit at home with power, water, sewage, security, food and medicines delivered along with ecommerce so that YOU can avoid this “risk”. How is that possible? What if everyone followed your advice?

Originally Posted by Zen2001

The problem with the % scale is that the real denominator of ACTUAL infections (which is easily upwards of 10 crores, by a very very conservative epidemiologic estimate) is not known and will never be known. Hence what is being documented (erroneously high too) is NOT the infection rate or infection fatality rate, but just the case incidence and case fatality rate. Stop testing and these numbers automatically go down. It's high time to just test and treat the susceptible and seriously ill while letting the mild cases (& obviously asymptomatics) let their immunity work, as it would against any Corona virus (or any respiratory virus) in the past. It's not rocket science, just politics.

I fully agree with you. In early days, testing is important so you can try and stop the spread and get an idea of where the disease is spreading. However once the number goes over a couple of million with lots of new cases being reported everywhere, testing is useless. Only seriously ill who are hospitalized should be tested. Otherwise we are catching less than 1/100 of actual infections. If 10 million people catch the virus daily and we are identifying and isolating around 100,000 it hardly makes any difference. All we create is needless panic as numbers keep increasing.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

The problem with such reasoning is the hypocrisy in it.

Absolutely agree. When our maid shops for us, we are asking her to take that risk. Whilst she is much younger, it is still a risk. I don't have a defence.

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Nor do I think there is a media conspiracy, because it benefits nobody.

Actually, it benefits many:

1. The sanitizer manufacturers
2. The mask manufacturers
3. The thermometer manufacturers
4. The pulse oxymeter manufacturers
5. The nutritional supplement manufacturers
6. The sanitizing industry, like cars, hotel rooms, offices, and every other public place.
7. The private corporate hospitals
8. The vaccine industry. Twice a year vaccine? Every year after year? Multiplied by most of the world population? You can do the math. Never mind the efficacy or untested risks.
9. And most importantly, the powers that be. Create enough panic and anxiety for a few months, and people will be willing to do and bear anything after that. And rules and regulations, harsh or illogical, in the name of 'Covid control'. We will gladly accept it.

[Thad E Ginathom]

If you could really nail one multinational. you might be on to something. Pharma is closest.

And most importantly, the powers that be. Create enough panic and anxiety for a few months, and people will be willing to do and bear anything after that. And rules and regulations, harsh or illogical, in the name of 'Covid control'. We will gladly accept it.

Back to "The government is lying to me." If it was A government, I could begin to believe it possible.

And I don't think it is happening, anyway: Seems to me that many people are not taking it seriously anyway, and many of the rest are getting lax because they are simply fed up, or even revolting against authority. It doesn't add up.

I don't buy the conspiracy theories. I don't see like-minded conspirators.

[proton]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

The problem with such reasoning is the hypocrisy in it. Some people want to be super safe and take no “risk” whatsoever while expecting others to expose themselves to the risk. You need people to work at power plants, repair power lines and transformers, work at water and sewage treatment plants, grow food, transport it, process it, sell it and deliver it.

........
You expect over 30 to 50% of people to go out and work so you can sit at home with power, water, sewage, security, food and medicines delivered along with ecommerce so that YOU can avoid this “risk”. How is that possible? What if everyone followed your advice?

You are creating a strawman, in your excitement to rebut. If you read the comment, and my reply, calmly, you'll see what was advised against was reverting back to normal life.

Don't do it!

My son's friend is built like a gorilla, has undergone special training, served in the Congo as part of the UN peace keeping force under deputation from the Indian Army, presently serving in one of the severest terrains known to man. He decided to go about life normally, exceptions limited only to taking the normal precautions, using masks and eye protection, and wearing hazmat suits in environments with less ventilation and crowded conditions. He caught the virus, now he's like a walking skeleton, with a shrunken frame and hollowed out eyes.

I'm over sixty, and have all the indications of living a sedentary and hedonistic life (mea culpa, I love my luxuries, even breakfast in bed), but when the virus hit, I pitched in and did all the grocery shopping. In other words, I eliminated the venturing out to my favourite watering holes, but contributed to essential expeditions for food and supplies.

It was my children who banned this! They even shut down all my profitable business activities, closing down my service outlets, catering to the cream of Bangalore. People even come here from Kerala and TN to enjoy the facilities. Formerly, they would have had to pry them from my cold dead hands, but they managed with my yet warm ones, by being highly convincing in their reasoning and logic (yes, I'm a sucker for the last).

So, to TEG, 'Don't do it!', especially at his age! The advice was variegated, not meant for all situations. Of course, I have acquaintances who are forced to work full time, because they haven't built up reserves, sometimes for no fault of their own. But, again, my advice was against 'unnecessary taking of risks'. Incidentally, my competitors have re-opened their businesses. The first few days there was a huge rush. Now, not as much, in fact, is dead. The clients realised the dangers of spending extended periods of time in closed spaces with large numbers of other people, and stopped coming!

........

I fully agree with you. In early days, testing is important so you can try and stop the spread and get an idea of where the disease is spreading. However once the number goes over a couple of million with lots of new cases being reported everywhere, testing is useless.

The time for testing is indeed over, the pandemic is out of control, but the need at this stage, taking into consideration the experience in Europe, is to have time-limited lockdowns, to phase out the surge, in order to prevent collapse of the hospital system.

Hard lockdown is primordial, the oldest, crudest method of disease prevention. It's implementation at the initial stage, for 21 days, when the cases were about a 1000, was unconscionable, incompetence at its worst.

As I have said, the correct step was to have had a limited lockdown, corral the known cases, track and trace and quarantine their contacts and isolate THOSE positive manifesting cases. That's what New Zealand did. My nieces, in medicine in Melbourne, tell us their government is facing flak for THEIR mishandling of the case, as they did with the wildfires mishandling (they hired a security firm, whose staff were bribed with money and sex to allow quarantined incoming passengers into the city's nightlife. Yes, the guilty staff were desis! I'm not kidding! Another desi was fined INR80,000/- equivalent when caught for breaking the recent lockdown extension, for driving 50 kilometres for a snack, because he couldn't do without his favourite butter chicken vendor's offerings anymore. Again, not kidding! What's with our love of bucking rules?).

Bottomline, lockdowns are going to come back, and qualified, educated, informed steps need to be taken, else there's going to be chaos. I just got info that PM is asking State CM's their opinions on whether another lockdown, for 2 days, will ease their problems! Croikey!