[Thad E Ginathom]

Thanks for the advice! I wonder if age-related analysis has been kept up. I regularly hear of elders recovering and younger people dying. Yes, this is just an impression: I know it doesn't even make 'anecdote' rating! Which is why I wonder.

I'm all for better targeted restrictions. Perhaps one could say target the disease, not the people. Can't see that short sharp lockdowns are going to help in any way. And lockdown management that encouraged mass-panic shopping were probably counter-productive. There might be a lot wrong with lockdown, but if it is to be done, it should be done properly.

[roy_libran]

In the meanwhile came across this on the subject of state ventilator procurements and the ensuing drama-
LINK

[Nalin1]

2 day lockdown.

Lockdown for 200 days starting today. Won't even touch the virus, leave alone scratch, bite or destroy it.

[Garth]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Perhaps one could say target the disease, not the people.

This is what is required actually. At the moment the people are being targeted. God forbid someone contracts the disease, every one including neighbors are after that poor soul.

As soon as someone tests positive and is being taken to a hospital in an ambulance, the neighbors are out there with their mobiles to take pics/ videos of them being taken away in the ambulance.

We had someone who broke their foot in an accident. They were dropped to the basement of the building in an ambulance, as the basement has easier access to the lift. One gentlemen says in the Apartment Whatsapp group "I only want to know if the ambulance is here to pick up someone who had Covid". Just narrating this incident to highlight the attitude of society. I know of many supportive neighbors as well. But this is the attitude of the general populace.

Then I also read some reports about people not being allowed to keep their mobiles with them in the Covid Care Centers and hospitals in Bangalore. (I read this in the newspaper, this might be restricted to one/ few CCCs, others might have a different experience) On the one hand the poor chap is trying to deal with so much stress, on top they cant meet family, and to top all that there is no means of communicating with them either.

I think the stress created from the society might be taking a few lives in addition to the disease as well.

[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by proton

You are creating a strawman, in your excitement to rebut. If you read the comment, and my reply, calmly, you'll see what was advised against was reverting back to normal life.

Don't do it!

My son's friend is built like a gorilla, has undergone special training, served in the Congo as part of the UN peace keeping force under deputation from the Indian Army, presently serving in one of the severest terrains known to man. He decided to go about life normally, exceptions limited only to taking the normal precautions, using masks and eye protection, and wearing hazmat suits in environments with less ventilation and crowded conditions. He caught the virus, now he's like a walking skeleton, with a shrunken frame and hollowed out eyes.

I just got info that PM is asking State CM's their opinions on whether another lockdown, for 2 days, will ease their problems! Croikey!

Once again, "reverting back to normal life" must be done. We are all doing it. Some will do it sooner, some a little later. Already at least 70% of the people are back to their normal lives. The remaining ones are slowly coming out of their fears as they are forced to go to the office, go see a doctor, go to a bank or visit someone in an emergency. After they do it once or twice, their fear goes down and it gets easier. How long can we keep ourselves locked up? Would that be called living a life or life imprisonment if all we are going to do is shut ourselves in our homes for the rest of our lives? If last year someone had offered people a life of comfort where they will have to be locked up inside an apartment for 10 years, I bet most people would have declined. Coming to your example of X person got sick or Y died, there is risk in everything. Why do we ever drive? I see people posting travelogues of treacherous drives to Ladakh. Even with a safe vehicle, airbags, ABS, ESC etc, I can show you thousands of examples of how a person was injured or died. Do we sit and worry about each possible thing that could go wrong? The same people who want to take no "risk" are happy driving a decade old unsafe vehicle without airbags and refuse to wear a seatbelt while holding a child on their lap. Forget about keeping the child in a child seat at rear. Same people cross the road without using a pedestrian overpass or even waiting for the light to turn green. The same people drive on the wrong side and go without a helmet. Any kind of safety standards are laughed at whether it is leaving electricity wires in the open or missing manhole covers. However when it comes to this virus, suddenly every remote unlikely possibility much be researched and feared. I am all for taking precautions but we must restart normal life. Otherwise the damage would be much worse than what the virus is doing.
Coming to your comment about the PM, he actually asked the states to try and avoid small lockdowns as they harm the economy and are not effective.

States should rethink the utility of mini-lockdowns, assess economic disruption, says PM Modi
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/78286910.cms

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Much of it is just the summation of reports from doctors and nurses of the world.
I posted an interview with a London-hospital physiotherapist, shocked at the post-covid patients she was having to deal with. It was shot down by some optimism-bias irrelevant objection. I don't think they are lying. Nor do I think there is a media conspiracy, because it benefits nobody.

The doctors/nurses who report on cases are NOT lying. The problem with anecdotal evidence is that they don't consider the denominator. That is, they don't say out of how many infected Covid people they see this post-Covid symptoms.

I laid emphasis on infected (as opposed to confirmed) cases, because the number of infections are way more than confirmed by tests.

For instance, in Delhi's antibody serological survey conducted in Sep 1st week, 33% of the population had antibodies. 33% of Delhi is about 5 million people. That means 5 million people have contracted and recovered from the virus. So out of this 5 million, how many show post-covid symptoms?. This would be my first question when I read such news items.

I don't say there is intentional media conspiracy, but most of the journalists are not trained to ask such questions. They are trained/inclined towards human-interests stories, originating from anecdotal evidence or interviews.

Unfortunately, data or statistical understanding eludes a large section of the journalists.

[proton]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

Once again, "reverting back to normal life" must be done.

Okay, I think I have to list all the combinations and permutations, in order of safest to most unsafe personal situations.

In view of the real risks, the following should not return to normal living, the respective deviations listed.

1. Young healthy individuals with savings, should still wear masks, avoid unnecessary going out.

2. Young healthy individuals with no savings, should still wear masks, avoid unnecessary going out, except to earn a living.

3. Young individuals with some co-morbidities and savings, should still wear masks, avoid unnecessary going out, and take more precautions, on account of the higher risk factor.

4. Young individuals with some co-morbidities and no savings, should still wear masks, avoid unnecessary going out, except to earn a living, and take more precautions, on account of the higher risk factor.

5. Old healthy individuals with savings, should still wear masks, avoid unnecessary going out, and take more precautions, on account of the higher risk factor.

6. Old healthy individuals with no savings, should still wear masks, avoid unnecessary going out, except to earn a living, and take more precautions, on account of the higher risk factor.

7. Old individuals with some co-morbidities and savings, should still wear masks, avoid unnecessary going out, and take more precautions, on account of the even higher risk factor.

7. Old individuals with some co-morbidities and no savings, should still wear masks, avoid unnecessary going out, except to earn a living, and take more precautions, on account of the even higher risk factor.

Now, I repeat, my suggestion was directed to TEG, as I believe he falls under category 5. Applicable?

States should rethink the utility of mini-lockdowns, assess economic disruption, says PM Modi
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/78286910.cms

What is wrong with this picture? Plenty.

Don't you think that the Central Government is the best placed to establish standard operating procedures, protocols? They have the Medical Council of India, the Indian Council for Medical Research, the AIIMS, the means and experience to select and bring in medical equipment and consultants from abroad, etc.

Recently, the States goofed up on procurement of PPE material because they had no idea about selecting and importing it at the best price and at the required quality. We would think that the best minds for disease management would be at the national level, like the CDC in the US, headed by Dr Anthony Fauci. All the states have to follow his recommendations, risking strong action for non compliance. In Britain, Neil Ferguson had to resign for breaking the quarantine, with similar disciplinary action being taken against Douglas Cummings, the PM's Advisor. It's a universal application of the rules, for all the states. Even the relaxations must be set by the Centre, for example, where the virus has not reached. I don't get why pandemic management policy should be decided separately for each state, at the state level.

In the situation mentioned, the Centre should set out the guidelines. Limited lockdowns must be re-imposed when the cases spike, to prevent the hospital infrastructure from being overwhelmed. Melbourne clamped down again for 2 weeks, because of the spike, because of the faulty quarantining of incoming passengers. Ditto New Zealand. The decision is made on the basis of the serious health situation, not the economy.

I think I've clarified sufficiently, but you can always ask, if something seems unreasonable, as was thought about my suggestion TO TEG, which was conditional. Cheers.

[Zen2001]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Absolutely agree. When our maid shops for us, we are asking her to take that risk. Whilst she is much younger, it is still a risk. I don't have a defence.

That's where risk stratification comes in. And that's what governments have failed at - by putting everyone in the same bracket. Just because there might be pregnant women around in a shopping mall, it doesn't mean everyone there needs to be vaccinated against rubella, but the same scenario in a hospital (at least in the UK) - everyone working there (including males) need to be. That was just an example of the same risk - but different approaches based on stratification of the risk.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

The doctors/nurses who report on cases are NOT lying. The problem with anecdotal evidence is that they don't consider the denominator. That is, they don't say out of how many infected Covid people they see this post-Covid symptoms.

No, they don't. But that is not the point. The point is that they are seeing something new, and (I assume ongoing, but I don't know) and that they, as every-day professionals, are shocked by it. So the game here is not statistics: it is anecdote, but it is, hopefully, anecdote of the reliable kind. And properly reported? There is always a doubt, of course, but we can only individually chose the news sources we rely on.

I know nothing is perfect. Even with my favourite, The Guardian, when, for instance, I read stories about India I can often be very critical: it is not that they wantonly misreport, it is that they miss context and depth. But not as badly as the BBC!

[Nalin1]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

Once again, "reverting back to normal life" must be done. We are all doing it. Some will do it sooner, some a little later. Already at least 70% of the people are back to their normal lives.

Well summed up!. Some people have just NOT accepted that this virus is not going away anytime soon. They soon will!. They have to!.

The ridiculous lockdown scared the living daylights out of some people. That was the only purpose it served apart from cleaning the Ganga and Yamuna.

[phamilyman]

Friends, I have good and bad news:
a. Good news: Active cases have turned negative last few days!


For those who counter that testing has fallen - Testing is NOT a top down decision but a bottom up need!

Testing is super easy now in DEL and BOM. Close relatives / friends got tested last few days.

Their experience was pleasant - no queues, no rush. In comparison, getting tested in a NCR satellite city in June was a nightmare when the key lab could only do 120 tests a day so I know a doctor who had to pull in major favors to get tested. That scenario is no longer the case in NCR for sure.

Even the results have no delays or long turnaround - folks are getting it under 24 hours versus the 48-60 hours earlier

Despite our monumental stupidity as a population, the tide is turning! For once I'm optimistic! (insert ecstatic dancing GIF)

But keep your mask on - stay cautious!

b. Bad news:


The infectivity in Delhi / Maharashtra (entire State!!) and Chandigarh since their positivity rate of 20% shows no signs of abating. All other states are 12% or lower.

[Gansan]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

But not as badly as the BBC!

English teachers in my school and Professors in my College used to stress on two things for improving our English language skills. Listening to BBC news on radio and reading The Hindu news paper every day. Both are down in the dumps these days. Not only in content, but also in language and grammar.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by Nalin1

Well summed up!. Some people have just NOT accepted that this virus is not going away anytime soon. They soon will!. They have to!.

Hadn't noticed Donald around here. He is the only person who seems to believe in Covid miracles! No, it isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

Equally to be accepted: We are going to have to put a lot of work into avoiding it.

[srvm]

A health camp was arranged in my organization in which my blood sample was taken around 10th September. The sample was processed for serological test to check if I have antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. The method used was Roche Anti-SARS-CoV-2 (link).
Test results came back yesterday: I do not have antibodies against SARS-CoV-2.
Not sure if I should be happy or concerned!

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by srvm

I do not have antibodies against SARS-CoV-2.
Not sure if I should be happy or concerned!

Not concerned, but in your place, I would have been unhappy. Imagine the happiness of knowing that you have the antibodies, with probably an asymptomatic infection! It's like getting a free vaccination