[aim120]

The US is not going to defend against taiwan. The reason china has not yet invaded taiwan is because the island nation is heavily defended. Invaders will have to rely on paratrooper. Any ship based marine assault will be taken out by taiwan before it reaches coast.

Its only when its Air Force is down and its missile battery are down can china invade.

The US still doesn't formally say they will defend taiwan nor does it recognize Taiwan as a separate country formally.

US is in no position to defend against another super power.

Us will not come to our aid if we where at war with china.
At best there will be some sanctions. Offensive weapon systems of the US are incompatible with ours. Save for a few apache helicopters.

Those here saying we should stop supporting russia. If that happens are 270 su30mki, 60 plus mig29, 6000 plus t72, t90, bmp etc will be out of spares and ammo and we will be left with paper weight.

If all of those 270 planes were to be replaced by western aircraft we will need around 100 billion usd. We will go the pakistan way of being bankrupt.

We need to be neutral and keep our interest in mind.

We use lot of russian help in military, space and nuclear power plants.

Throughout all the decades of US sanction, pressure, intimidation on India. Russian were there to help.

We can't just turn our back on russia. Unless they openly start hampering our interests.

Putin also is not dumb enough to trust the CCP controlled china which one day may come to do salami slicing on the russians, which have lot of natural resources.

[thanixravindran]

Originally Posted by CarNerd

The US while sitting in a safe place far away wants others to act on behalf of it whereas it is us who will bear the consequences of allying with it.

The current situation does not warrant taking any sides by India. In fact, no country that has independent foreign policy and sound diplomacy will take sides unless it is directly impacted. So supporting a military alliance like NATO or an invasion is unthinkable. At the best, India's stance will always be to support a UN sponsored course of action. If you watch carefully the stance of France in Ukraine crisis which is closer to action and a NATO member, except offering a table to talk, the reaction is muted as they are still smarting on the snub of AUKUS.

Also, please remember QUAD is still informal group and not a military alliance yet. It will become a completely different game with China if it materializes.

Originally Posted by Electromotive

India's ties with Russia are no longer of any consequence. We buy weapons from Russia because they are affordable for us and even then the deals end up costing a lot more than budgeted for, case in point the INS Vikramaditya. Given the ties Russia has with China, it can even prove to be a liability. We do not know if missile defenses purchased from Russia can be remotely disabled or have vulnerabilities they have revealed to China etc. hope you get the idea.

As for India-US relations, we are now too dependent on trade with the USA and need US support to keep China at bay. India's policy of neutrality didn't do any good during the 70s-80s and won't do any good now either. IMO, if the choice has to be made, it should be a prompt one and in favor of the NATO block. When living in the shadow of a juggernaut, it is beneficial to have another juggernaut on your side.

India taking the high moral ground diplomacy on who is correct or wrong in the world is practically dead (Nehruvian foreign policy), for good.

However, writing off the relationship of Russia and choosing US will be suicidal. Also thinking about Russian weapons just as cheap is completely wrong. Hope you are aware about the restrictive clauses of usage for US based defense equipment (whether can be used as offensive or not, against whom) as well US AECA which mandates end user periodic verification for the weapons sold (and purchased by the countries with hard dollars). And the beauty is this kicks in only if USA wants to provide the weapons in the first place.

Originally Posted by ValarMorghulis

As someone with limited Geo-Political knowledge in this aspect, a question to the more knowledgeable folks:

What stops China from invading Taiwan, if Russia invades Ukraine?

US obviously isn't going to interfere in both the places, sine it logically & financially can't. What then?

In reality, nothing. However the best wars are won with no shots fired. Everyone will calculate the 'Costs Vs Benefits' of the war and the unintended consequences it can produce. This is the only thing that prevents all out wars till ambitions of an over egoistic 'leader' pulls the wool over their own eyes.

Originally Posted by am1m

I'm no history or geopolitical expert, but it seems to me that being a military ally of the US has proved more costly than what it's worth for several smaller countries, being pulled in to wars that didn't make any sense and which proved to have no justification whatsoever in the end analysis, and being used as remote US military bases.

Far better to be a nation that can take a decision independent of either of the blocs or superpowers and based on each issue/situation and whatever works best for our long-term interests. Otherwise it's as bad as being back in the days of the cold war and following idiotic proclamations like "you are either with us or against us". While not a 'superpower' I think we're enough of a country to be able to decide each issue on its merits.


Pretty hard job for any country's diplomats, all these permutations and combinations. But ultimately, hope the axiom that the purpose of diplomacy is to avoid war, any war, holds in this situation!

Rightly said. One of the former defense secretary of US told once

"It will be initially warm and cozy to be in bed with Uncle Sam enjoying all the attention but once the weight starts crushing in the bed, you will feel the pain and can't even tell it outside or get out of it"

If anyone remembers the recent boycott of Winter Olympic games in China,
has any Western government boycotted the games citing China's aggression towards India? West just found a different reason for the boycott to needle China and we do not have to kowtow any of that. India had a last minute pull out due to a different reason which is the right thing to do. In fact, China got it wrong diplomatically as it would have given them a legitimacy that world's largest democracy has joined the games.

[Thermodynamics]

Coming back to the topic 'impact of this crisis', the sanctions would bloat oil and gas prices. It is going to get tough from India's perspective. Soon after the elections, fuel prices would likely shoot up. Hope our central and state Goverments provide atleast some relief with respect to excise duty and VAT and tone it down a bit.

[SnS_12]

If you have to understand what could be on Russia's mind then you have to follow the money trail..

Contrary to what the US and western media wants the world to think Russia doesn't want to invade and take over Ukraine. If they had to do that they would have done it already and wouldn't have waited when Crimea was annexed in 2014.

What Russia is trying to do is destabilize the West and especially US. The US economy with rising inflation and a ballooning $30+ trillion debt is going to see challenging times ahead. They have been kicking the can down the road for far too long and all this $ printing, with 80% of the US$ in circulation been printed in the last 24 months they are just passing on their inflation on the remaining world as the US$ is still the global reserve currency.

But what if the highest traded commodity in the world OIL is no longer traded in US$, what happens to the US$ and American economy then? Countries have tried this in the past and the US has put sanctions on them including what happened to Muammar Gaddafi (Libya).

So, if you see what Russia has been doing with the money it may give a completely different picture to what the western media portrays.

While Russia has a trade surplus, US on the other hand reported a trade deficit of over 1 trillion$.















Also, to add further Ukraine will never be included in NATO as then they will have to defend them directly against Russia by sending in their military as they would for any other NATO member. Also, it cannot be a part of the European Union at the moment as then people from Ukraine will start migrating to other stable European countries for a more stable life creating a migrant crisis for other members.

[aashishnb]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

If we can’t condemn Russia invading its neighbour to acquire its territories, how can we condemn China for their salami-slicing in Ladakh? It’s double-standards!

Originally Posted by Electromotive

India's policy of neutrality didn't do any good during the 70s-80s and won't do any good now either.

I think, in International diplomacy, double standards is the NORM, moral high ground / neutrality matter less. Every country has to look & do what is best for them at that point of time.


On a separate note, wishful thinking, they should just add Russia to NATO and sort out & close hostilities in perpetuity

[Herschey]

Originally Posted by @og_adi

BHPians,
I apologize once again if I hurt anyone's feelings/sentiments by posting the video. It was never my intention to bring in our politics or promote it. As I was engrossed in the main subject of the video, I somehow missed how he subtly brought in our politics. As a bhpian, even I wouldn't want to see politics being discussed here and hence request the mods to do the needful.
Thank you.

There is absolutely no need for an apology as your sole intent was to share what might be causing this conflict and not take a political standing.

Personally, I only shared my opinion of the creator's content and how he swiftly tries to cover up his veiled politically motivated left leaning agenda under the guise of information sharing; information which at times is fundamentally incorrect but most often politically motivated. I am sure he too has his own loyal audience as with many others on Youtube not belonging to the same school of thought.

Excessive censorship is regressive and as quoted by am1am earlier, often causes the Streisand effect by building hyper curiosity in our minds. Afterall, isn't it the abstract thats curiosity and that spirit of discovery that makes us all human?

I quite simply don't feel the need to report the post as I think we are all mature enough here to read between the lines and decide whats good for us and whats not. What's even more reassuring is that we have such a wonderful and diverse set of individuals here who are ready to help and correct us if they see us making a mistake. To love is easy, to criticise takes a whole lot of courage. That's what makes us the community that we are, that's what makes us special. Cheers!

[arbardhan]

Nothing will happen.

Europe is not in a position to give up Russian Gas at this time - almost 40 % dependency. The cacophony of the US administration is an overcompensation to the disaster they were in Afghanistan. Germany is a hypocrite ( Among realpolitok). They will certify Nord Stream 2 after some time.

Russia does not care about sanctions as they can always carry trade directly with China. China will push aggressively Yuan and Russia may accept some payments in Yuan / Digital Yuan etc.

AMERICA absolutely hates it when sovereign nations prefer an alternative to the dollar - this will inturn work to keep the Russian gas supply to Europe intact.

Not sure how Pakistan Russia will emerge.

India does not need to comment anything and prepare for deliveries of S400. Remember when Chinese escalated in Laddakh - Not one European power said anything substantial.

[V.Narayan]

The Ukraine crises once again illuminates how much the Western Anglo-Saxon media toes the line of the Government. This crises did not start in 2022 or in 2014 (Crimea) it started in the early years at the turn of the century circa 2004 when NATO started to play footsy with Ukraine over joining NATO and taking NATO forces to the very border with Russia. In the cold war when military power was more evenly balanced a doctrine of spheres of influence was tacitly followed especially after the Cuban crises of 1962 started by USA placing nukes in Turkey. Among all large powers in the history of warfare and military-diplomatic shadow boxing and signaling the concept of buffer states has been well recognized over the last 300 years. While I do not want to condone Putin for swinging his sabre or treat him like a saint (which he certainly is not) the fact is this is about America exercising covertly absolute hegemony by effectively saying 'I'll surround you from all sides and you pesky Russia will bow down quietly' . This is about a weak Biden drumming up support for his Presidency and his upcoming mid-term elections.

Where financial sanctions go - this time it could be the stimulus the rest of the world needs to get moving away from the $ as the main or sole means of trade and the main reserve currency. Ultimately the US$ and not its over whelming military might is America's greatest strength. Its dependency on the $ remaining the world's reserve currency is also its Achilles heel. Because the day that changes the American Govt and its treasury bonds will be in very deep trouble. Right now the US of A is like the richest land lord in the village who daily borrows from every farmer, artisan and serf in that village to feed his inability to earn as much as he spends.

Coming to Ukraine - every country has the right to defend itself - no doubt about that. But countries sitting beside a giant - Ukraine, Finland, Sri Lanka, Mongolia, Mexico have to also exercise thought of balancing their need to protect themselves versus the fate their geography has dealt them. Finland is a master at that. Ukraine could learn from them. I feel sorry for the predicament Ukraine finds itself. Putin is no easy chap to deal with but just like it will be foolhardy for Mexico to join an anti-USA alliance it is equally foolhardy for Ukraine or Belarus to join an anti-Russia alliance. Anti-Russia is effectively what NATO is despite whatever their PR posturing may say.

India has done well to take a neutral stand. Our EAM said it well in Europe. This is not a child's tit for tat game. The Europeans didn't give a fig over Galwan or Doklam or 1971 (East Pakistan) or 1991 (Financial crises) for that matter. While we buy some very effective US arms now I remain wary of US intentions and fickleness. They are fickle because they believe they can afford to. Russia is no longer the USSR it once was. But to the credit of both sides the Indo-Russian mutual support has never let the other side down. There is value there.

One only has to see how USA treats the UK over their alliance from 1940 to date to see what comes from sleeping with the US of A. There is a reason why the richest landlord of the village has more security guards than the rest put together.

Originally Posted by DIY410

Main stream media in the US are beating the war drums. Welcome to the information warfare.
When the soviet Union collapsed, under Gorbachev. Nato and the then US defense Secretary promised that Nato will not move an inch towards Russia.
Fast forward today Nato is right at the Russian border.

Thank you for bringing up this broken assurance. It shows that even in 1991 USA was fully aware of Russian sensitivity on this point.

Originally Posted by Lobogris

The Western nations have repeatedly overlooked blatant abuses by their allies and puppets. Why can’t India do the same?

+1

Originally Posted by thanixravindran

The current situation does not warrant taking any sides by India. In fact, no country that has independent foreign policy and sound diplomacy will take sides unless it is directly impacted. So supporting a military alliance like NATO or an invasion is unthinkable. At the best, India's stance will always be to support a UN sponsored course of action. If you watch carefully the stance of France in Ukraine crisis which is closer to action and a NATO member, except offering a table to talk, the reaction is muted as they are still smarting on the snub of AUKUS.
However, writing off the relationship of Russia and choosing US will be suicidal.
Rightly said. One of the former defense secretary of US told once
"It will be initially warm and cozy to be in bed with Uncle Sam enjoying all the attention but once the weight starts crushing in the bed, you will feel the pain and can't even tell it outside or get out of it"

+1+1

Originally Posted by SnS_12

If you have to understand what could be on Russia's mind then you have to follow the money trail..

Also, to add further Ukraine will never be included in NATO as then they will have to defend them directly against Russia by sending in their military as they would for any other NATO member. Also, it cannot be a part of the European Union at the moment as then people from Ukraine will start migrating to other stable European countries for a more stable life creating a migrant crisis for other members.

@SnS_12, thank you for an excellent post. One of my old classmates is from Ukraine and this is what he told me 25 years ago. Like with Turkey the West Europeans don't want Ukrainians crawling all over their cities.

[Sebring]

Putin just announced the military operation. More details awaited

Originally Posted by arbardhan

Nothing will happen.

[ninjatalli]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

One of my old classmates is from Ukraine and this is what he told me 25 years ago. Like with Turkey the West Europeans don't want Ukrainians crawling all over their cities.

The limited I know on this aspect is how Hollywood always represents Ukrainian folks as the bad guys of Europe (and US) - they run gangs, prostitution rackets, smuggling, bomb making and so on.

P.s. OT conversation.

[@og_adi]

Looks like the operation is on-

https://mobile.twitter.com/AP/status...ource=inshorts

Link to articles-

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world...25110-amp.html

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/02/23/...sanctions.html

[arbardhan]

Originally Posted by Sebring

Putin just announced the military operation. More details awaited

I wrote that after Putin recognized the breakaway states - So was expecting a military operation. The NOTHING here implied on consequences of a Russian invasion - I should have written "No Consequences" ,lets see how it plays out.

[AltoLXI]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

This crises did not start in 2022 or in 2014 (Crimea) it started in the early years at the turn of the century circa 2004 when NATO started to play footsy with Ukraine over joining NATO and taking NATO forces to the very border with Russia.

NATO defense facilities close to Russia and timelines of accession

[CEF_Beasts]

Ukraine’s President declares Martial Law

[dragracer567]

So, Russia has officially declared war on Ukraine. Turns out all the American intelligence was right!

There is no justification for this, Putin is invading a democratically ruled country! I’m not sure if India’s relationship with Russia will ever remain the same’

Link