[V.Narayan]

Couldn't resist jumping in on a lazy Sunday when I'm alone at home.Poor Mr Hersh, his thread has been hi-jacked.

Originally Posted by vishnurp99

So I also think about this quite a lot. I believe that India & US today have a symbiotic relationship economically while Russia & India have a symbiotic relationship militarily.

Having worked somewhat with the current crop of Russians on aviation matters I can say with hand on heart that the quality of support, customer service, honouring letter and spirit, timely deliveries etc goes the Russians suck to high heaven. We are dependant on them for historical purchases and fortunately are either going down the indigenous route or to Western sources for our new acquisitions. Except for the S400 air defence system we have not gone with the Russians on anything major lately. We need them to keep the Americans in balance. On military supplies the Americans deliver what they contract for in letter and spirit.

On India's pragmatic stand on the Ukraine war USA & India have actually worked out a rather balanced and mature arrangement with each other. On the other hand the Europeans, outside France and UK, are busy wagging their fingers like an old aunt whom no one listens to anymore.

Economically I believe that US needs India at least as much as India needs the US. Sure, US can kill the outsourcing industry in a day if they want to but today market caps of most US tech companies are dependent on access to 1.5 Billion people strong Indian market
if a day comes when India says that the Indian market is not welcome for Facebook/Instagram, Google & Amazons of the world, the market caps of most knowledge based/data based companies will simply collapse.

Originally Posted by Hayek

The Indian market is irrelevant economically for most US companies - if Amazon pulled out of India, it’s losses would decrease and its market cap may rise. We have a grossly mistaken view about our attractiveness as a market today. In 15-25 years, it may be different -

Both views are equally correct. The truth I guess is in between. Yes we are not as pretty as we think but everyone hopes we'll get there which we surely will but at our own pace.

The symbiosis is because of Indian engineers role in keeping costs down for US companies, the success of English speaking Indian Americans, and the view that India (like the US) is a secular democracy with English speaking local interlocutors who think like Americans.

+1

If we think that the 1.4 billion market (which is not really a market, there are less than 50 mm Indians in the relevant market for most American companies) gives us a license to behave like China, we would get treated far worse than China has been treated.

As we are not the pretender to the throne, like China is, it is most unlikely we will do anything remotely offensive to the US or keep poking them in the eye like China.

US and most of Europe is aging.

Europe yes but USA and and to a lesser extent UK are not.

but the US has been happy to shut down a much more attractive market (China) and could do that to India.

For my own knowledge could you share, symbolism aside, which major parts of the China trade has USA shut down for itself.

Back to Mr Hersh and who dunnit. I still say it is the Americans not only for their vested interests but also for capability. All the America fans on the forum should at least cheer their divers and commandos for pulling this off even if you don't believe they did it!!! Underwater sabotage/commando operations are 5X more complex to execute than say rescuing a hijacked airliner - not saying the latter is difficult just giving a comparison. Working deep underwater, visually blind with only sonar as a guide, trying to locate something covered in several feet of mud and limits on time you can stay down all make it very messy. While the Russian Spetznaz commandos must be still very competent but in underwater technology the Americans are a leap ahead of anyone else. The Americans have been placing devices on the sea floor and retrieving them since the 1960s.

[vishnurp99]

Originally Posted by Hayek

Agree we have a symbiotic relationship with the USA economically - but that is NOT because of the Indian market. The Indian market is irrelevant economically for most US companies

I see your point because i know the margin discrepancy that exists between our Indian accounts & the western/US accounts. However my assessment was from a BATNA "Best Alternative" perspective. If you are a US leader in E-commerce or Search or Social media company, what is the alternative growth market which compares favorably to India in terms of Scale, English speaking population, Judicial/human rights setup etc ? My perception is that the kind of investors who have invested in Google, Amazon & even Reliance think long term (even inter-generational wealth creation ) rather than current realities.

Originally Posted by Hayek

The US has been happy to shut down a much more attractive market (China) and could do that to India.

I am just thinking out loud here but did US really shut down the Chinese market? Wasn't it China which decided that US companies/platforms like Google/Youtube/Search, Amazon Marketplaces etc cannot be trusted? If US has shut down the Chinese market, why is Tesla getting around 40% of it's sales from China. Now Tesla sales are starting to drop because of domestic competition and gradually the Chinese will set up the market place such that Tesla may need to leave too.
I think US has woken up to this reality now and is trying to limit access to chip technology but they didn't shut down the Chinese market at all. They just realized that the Chinese have been using them all this while and the state & business in China are not separate. The Chinese forced their hand and in spite of that they seem to going slow in lot of areas within their country where the Chinese influence is significant.

I agree that we have diverged from the main point here but just wanted to humbly put a point of view across.

[SnS_12]

Joe Biden during a joint news conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had clearly said what will happen to Nord Stream 2 if Ukraine is invaded by Russia.

Further Germany’s silence of not wanting to get to the bottom of this attack also says a lot especially considering the economic downfall they are witnessing because of high energy costs.

West pushing the narrative that Russia destroyed its own assets and that too an important source of revenue and further been denied to participate in the investigation thereafter is also hard to digest.

https://youtu.be/OS4O8rGRLf8

[arjpillai]

As a fan of realism/pragmatism when it comes to foreign policy, this sounds delicious and entirely an on-brand thing for the US to do, as the world's sole superpower. Likewise with what's happening in/to Pakistan, nothing that happens in the subcontinent is without the imprints of the region's hegemon, India. We should do anything that's possible to maintain that hegemonic status, aspirational stuff in foreign policy matters.

[aashishnb]

Here's my 2 bits addition to the conspiracy theory:


The blowing & more importantnly the entire Ukraine conflict, must've been done by a joint tacit understanding between US & Russia. Both of them benefit from high energy prices. US largely being self sufficient & net exporter, petrodollar hegemony, Russia gets to sell lower volumes (due to import bans) but at higher prices, etc. etc.

The Chinese would probably be the prime agent who would have (hindi word 'uksana') loosely translating pushing/nudging everyone towards the conflict. Post covid, its entire industrial manufacturing had slowed down (remember they used to build-demolish-build again), and war destruction means they can start their factories again to supply everyone with the raw material. In any case, when two big bullies fight & injure each others, the 3rd person who stays out becomes more powerful - kind of like the US did after WW2.

Almost everyone benefited from conflict, some more than others.

And like a chess or any other game, only the first few steps could have been mutually agreed and then it takes a life of its own.

On a lighter note, do I have good imagination? :-)

Edit:
This video showed up like an hour after my post, randomly. Thought worth sharing:

https://www.facebook.com/chosen.few....G4f7M62o9aI2OL

[vamsi.kona]

Originally Posted by goacom

Seymour has made some fantastic revelations in the past, which turned out to be true, but he seems to have lost his mojo in his old age. He rubber stamped the Russia+Iran backed Syrian regime in claiming that they had not used any chemical weapons - despite the UN investigative commission providing evidence to the contrary.

I will not comment on the current article given that there is no evidence as of now, though each of us might have our own theories either in support or against the article.

However, his opinion about Syrian govt forces not using Chemical weapons, the Sarin gas incident in 2018, on which the OPCW gave it's report turned out to be true. While as you said the initial report accused the government of wrong doing, internal documents later released by wikileaks completely shattered that. The inspectors who actually made that report didn't find the government as responsible for the attack. The final report was completely different from what the actual team which investigated the incident reported. You can search for this in Google.

[aim120]

Originally Posted by vamsi.kona

I will not comment on the current article given that there is no evidence as of now, though each of us might have our own theories either in support or against the article.

However, his opinion about Syrian govt forces not using Chemical weapons, the Sarin gas incident in 2018, on which the OPCW gave it's report turned out to be true. While as you said the initial report accused the government of wrong doing, internal documents later released by wikileaks completely shattered that. The inspectors who actually made that report didn't find the government as responsible for the attack. The final report was completely different from what the actual team which investigated the incident reported. You can search for this in Google.

Yep and whats sad is that they followed the same strategy of smear campaign against the inspectors who wrote the report, just like they are now doing it to Seymour Hersh.

Here is the article about that
https://thegrayzone.com/2020/12/07/o...r-syria-leaks/

[McLaren Rulez]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

I doubt that this report will have any serious implications

Correctly predicted, at least so far! A story like these needs a source of information that is verifiable and credible to have real political impact.

Mr. Hersh may be able to get Hollywood interested though - it is quite the story! And perhaps one day, when documents are declassified, we may learn of what really went down.

[vishnurp99]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

He also made some bizarre claims about the Osama Bin Laden killing by US Special forces again based on "anonymous" sources. Seymour's claim was Pakistan establishment cooperated with US and the special forces raid was staged. A decade later and despite regime changes both in US and Pakistan, no further substantiation has been provided.

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/12/m...ings-true.html

Just sharing an old article from NYTimes on this topic. I believe that this journalist is still with NYT. Based on this article, I don't think the claim is as bizarre as some of us may think.

All said & done, I find Sy hersh quite credible even today.

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by vishnurp99

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/12/m...ings-true.html

Just sharing an old article from NYTimes on this topic. I believe that this journalist is still with NYT.

This article from 2015 is behind a paywall, so I cannot comment on the contents. Has there been any further corroboration or new evidence in these 8 years ? Please note that in this intervening period power shifted from Dems to Republicans in the US, and similar power shifts happened in Pakistan. It needs hundreds of people to maintain such a lie...

But yes, the bizarre Bin Laden story slightly taints his credibility but in no way is a reflection on the Nordstrom story. Both have to be evaluated independently.

[dragracer567]

There are three supporting arguments to the case that the Americans did indeed blow up the Nordstream:

1) Seymour Hersh's credibility as a solid journalist who exposed the My Lai and Abu Ghraib war crimes that exposed the Americans & their self-righteousness.

2) The Americans have the most to gain from this.

3) Past experience - Americans have always been really good at false flag ops, deceiving public opinion etc. Whatever the Russians or the Chinese are doing now - they learned from the Americans.

To be fair, the first argument can be disputed due to his claims about Assad and Bin Laden's killings. The latter two arguments are strongly circumstantial. I perused the article - I'm no legal expert, but the article is written pretty much as a story, to get the details of which the journalist would need to have informers at the White House, the Pentagon, the CIA or possibly even the NSA. An expose would generally have some blanks that can't be filled but this story just seems too complete to be true.

Offcourse, I wouldn't argue that the American didn't do it, there's as much non-circumstantial evidence that the Americans did it as there is evidence that the Europeans or Russians did it. However, if the Americans did do it, I would argue that this would've almost certainly been done with the knowledge or perhaps even the blessing of the Europeans. The Europeans might be (relatively) weak but they certainly aren't stupid. Their intelligence collection capabilities are well-honed and they would certainly pick up the Americans & Norwegians doing funny things in the Baltic Sea. I believe that IF the Americans did it, the Europeans certainly supported it because:

1) The pipeline was a sore for the Europeans - a display of their naivety during better times (PS naivety doesn't mean stupid). The Europeans know that as long as the pipeline exists, the Russians can always arm-twist European public opinion into relenting from sanctions on Russia & support for Ukraine. With the pipeline blown up, there is no question of sourcing more gas from Russia cheaply anymore.

2) If the Norwegians were indeed involved as Mr. Hersh claims, I would strongly argue that the Norwegians wouldn't operate so out of sync with their European allies, especially not in such a sensitive operation.

To be fair, it's really hard to think of an argument as to why the Russians would do it because:

1) The Nordstream was a blackmail chip for the Russians, with that blown-up, the Europeans are no longer beholden to Putin's whims.

2) If the Russians did blow it up, they would want the world to know about it.

Offcourse, the Russians are very unpredictable and recently Putin uncle has gotten a knack for shooting himself on the foot, so, nothing can be discounted.

[vishnurp99]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

But yes, the bizarre Bin Laden story slightly taints his credibility but in no way is a reflection on the Nordstrom story. Both have to be evaluated independently.

https://www.businessinsider.in/defen...w/47267119.cms

This articles gives the gist of what Carlotta Gall has written in her article. I don't believe that this one is behind a paywall. I have also posted a snippet from Carlotta Gall's original article below.

After one of the SEALs’ Black Hawk helicopters crashed in Bin Laden’s Abbottabad compound, neighbors called the police and reported hearing both the crash and the subsequent explosions. The local police told me that they received the calls and could have been at the compound within minutes, but army commanders ordered them to stand down and leave the response to the military. Yet despite being barracked nearby, members of the Pakistani Army appear to have arrived only after the SEALs — who spent 40 minutes on the ground without encountering any soldiers — left.

Hersh’s claim that there was little or no treasure trove of evidence retrieved from Bin Laden’s home rings less true to me. But he has raised the need for more openness from the Obama administration about what was found there.


https://www.macleans.ca/news/world/o...laden-is-here/

IMHO, while there has been no big bang corroboration in the years that followed, it was neither in the interest of the deep state of United states or the Pakistani army to put focus on this story. Based on these articles, it looks like most people knew what really happened but very few people wanted to put a target on their head and lose access to government sources by explicitly talking about the story.

[whitewing]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

This article from 2015 is behind a paywall, so I cannot comment on the contents. ..

The article from wayback machine, without the paywall.
https://web.archive.org/web/20220510...ings-true.html

[Foxbat]

The level of propaganda has reached ridiculous levels



Intelligence Suggests Pro-Ukrainian Group Sabotaged Pipelines, U.S. Officials Say
New intelligence reporting amounts to the first significant known lead about who was responsible for the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines that carried natural gas from Russia to Europe.


Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/u...mentsContainer

From the top comments:

"So the American government announced they would do it, is one of the few with the capability to do it, and directly benefits in two ways: removing a Russian lever to exert pressure on Western European governments, and making Western Europe more dependent on US-supplied energy.

And it just so happens that Navy Seal demolition teams were on exercises in the area.

Of course the Americans did it, why even bother to deny it?"


"Yep, makes sense. Non-state actors who just like Ukraine and decided to take 1,000 pounds of military grade explosives they picked up on the street and found some deep-sea divers without training who were cool with diving with those explosives and planting them just right.

Happens all the time. Could have been anybody."


"This was like when they were trying to have us believe that the Russians were shelling the nuclear plant that they were also occupying. Russia had no incentive to destroy their own pipeline which they could leverage against Europe."

" The US was the primary mover in the Nord Stream pipeline bombing. Whoever else assisted was a subsidiary force. Read journalist Seymour Hersh for an honest assessment of the attack."

"It seems difficult, if not silly, to think this act could have been accomplished without state involvement. Perhaps my imagination is stunted but this seems outside the bounds of some kind of Mission: Impossible crew of rogue actors. I regret to say if I had to bet on it, my money is on the US at the moment."

"One must read down towards the end of this article to find that Seymour Hersh has already reported that the US is directly responsible for the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline. Of course this is dismissed here out of hand and we are now supposed to believe that a sophisticated deep sea underwater demolition in eight different places on the pipeline was carried out by a group of Ukrainian "terrorists", without any knowledge by the US. It would be laughable if it wasn't such a serious matter."


I was a bit shocked to see the usually anti-Russia commentators call out the bullshit propaganda and see the truth.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by Foxbat

Intelligence Suggests Pro-Ukrainian Group Sabotaged Pipelines, U.S. Officials Say
New intelligence reporting amounts to the first significant known lead about who was responsible for the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines that carried natural gas from Russia to Europe.

No way that a non-state actor managed such a complex operation. This leak really does increase suspicion that the Americans were actually involved. And if the Americans were involved, the Europeans almost surely knew about it (reason explained in post #41).