[Samurai]

Well, in another 30-40 years, we will get official confirmation from the people who actually did it.

Remember Afghanistan from the 80s? How Americans come to the aid of poor Mujahadeens who were under attack by USSR? I guess most of us have seen the movie Charlie Wilson's War and watched how the General Zia-ul-Haq convinced Senator Wilson to take the side of Mujahadeens?

But.... that was not the truth. Zbigniew Brzezinski was Jimmy Carter's National Security Advisor from 1977 to 1981. He revealed in a 1998 interview that it was USA that initiated the conflict.

Question: The former director of the CIA, Robert Gates, stated in his memoirs["From the Shadows"], that American intelligence services began to aid the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan 6 months before the Soviet intervention. In this period you were the national security adviser to President Carter. You therefore played a role in this affair. Is that correct?

Brzezinski: Yes. According to the official version of history, CIA aid to the Mujahadeen began during 1980, that is to say, after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan, 24 Dec 1979. But the reality, secretly guarded until now, is completely otherwise: Indeed, it was July 3, 1979 that President Carter signed the first directive for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. And that very day, I wrote a note to the president in which I explained to him that in my opinion this aid was going to induce a Soviet military intervention. As you can see from the full interview, he had no regret in turning Afghanistan into the rubble it turned into in the 90s.

Source: https://www.outlookindia.com/website...ahideen/213722

[itwasntme]

More twists and turns, this time courtesy the WSJ!

Nord Stream Sabotage Probe Turns to Clues Inside Poland
https://www.livemint.com/politics/ne...374608417.html

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by itwasntme

More twists and turns, this time courtesy the WSJ!

Nord Stream Sabotage Probe Turns to Clues Inside Poland
https://www.livemint.com/politics/ne...374608417.html

When cops investigate a murder, they always seek two questions - (i) who benefits the most from this i.e., incentive; and (ii) who has the capability to commit the crime. From my limited knowledge of military matters the answer to the first is very clear. The answer to the second is only USA. With Russia's Spetsnaz forces having declined in strength and ability only USA today has the ability to conduct an underwater sabotage of this magnitude without getting detected. The underwater part makes the complexity degrees more challenging than say a hostage rescue or liberating a hijacked airliner.

[rrsteer]

Russian President Putin on who blew Nord Stream 1:

Tucker Carlson: Who blew up Nord Stream?

Vladimir Putin: You, for sure. (Laughter.)

Tucker Carlson: I was busy that day. I did not blow up Nord Stream.

Vladimir Putin: You personally may have an alibi, but the CIA has no such alibi.

Tucker Carlson: Do you have evidence that NATO or the CIA did it?

Vladimir Putin: You know, I won't get into details, but people always say in such cases: “Look for someone who is interested.” But in this case we should not only look for someone who is interested, but also for someone who has capabilities. Because there may be many people interested, but not all of them are capable of sinking to the bottom of the Baltic Sea and carrying out this explosion. These two components should be connected: who is interested and who is capable of doing it.

Tucker Carlson: But I am confused. I mean, that’s the biggest act of industrial terrorism ever and it’s the largest emission of CO₂ in history. Okay, so, if you had evidence and presumably, given your security services, your intel services, you would, that NATO, the US, CIA, the West did this, why wouldn’t you present it and win a propaganda victory?

Vladimir Putin: In the war of propaganda it is very difficult to defeat the United States because the United States controls all the world’s media and many European media. The ultimate beneficiary of the biggest European media are American financial institutions. Don't you know that? So it is possible to get involved in this work, but it is cost prohibitive, so to speak. We can simply shine the spotlight on our sources of information, and we will not achieve results. It is clear to the whole world what happened, and even American analysts talk about it directly. It's true.

Source and full interview text here: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73411

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by rrsteer

Russian President Putin on who blew Nord Stream 1:

Vladimir Putin: You know, I won't get into details, but people always say in such cases: “Look for someone who is interested.” But in this case we should not only look for someone who is interested, but also for someone who has capabilities. Because there may be many people interested, but not all of them are capable of sinking to the bottom of the Baltic Sea and carrying out this explosion. These two components should be connected: who is interested and who is capable of doing it.

Source and full interview text here: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73411

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

When cops investigate a murder, they always seek two questions - (i) who benefits the most from this i.e., incentive; and (ii) who has the capability to commit the crime. From my limited knowledge of military matters the answer to the first is very clear. The answer to the second is only USA. With Russia's Spetsnaz forces having declined in strength and ability only USA today has the ability to conduct an underwater sabotage of this magnitude without getting detected. The underwater part makes the complexity degrees more challenging than say a hostage rescue or liberating a hijacked airliner.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

When there is a murder common wisdom of the Police is to first check 'who benefits the most from this crime'. More often than not it is a sensible way of tracking the criminal. Similarly who benefits the most and who stands to lose the most is a good way to start here too. Regardless of our rose tinted glasses for either the US or Russia the biggest beneficiary here is USA for whom this was a master stroke to cut the German/European - Russia energy connection once and for all. It is also a great way to make war without seeming to do so and send a strong message to Germany & Europeans not to stray too far from the US shadow. From a strictly US geo-political point of view it was the right thing to do. Right or wrong, moral or immoral is a different topic which I'm not dwelling on in this post. From a strictly military point of view what they pulled off is beyond brilliant in its planning & execution. The aim is to show Russia that the US can and will bite. But it is unlikely this investigative piece of journalism will get legs in the West. Neither side in USA wants to make a noise on this and the Europeans are too dependant on USA to squeak. They have swallowed their pride and with the Russian bear growling at their doorstep will not protest against the US. Life will simply move on.

Thank you for saying this. If indeed the Russians had done it the Western press would have had a field day on the topic. The fact that it stayed so muted indicates strong political influence in both USA and Denmark-Germany- Norway etc to put a lid on it. Those who believe the Government's in the West do not lean on their media on what to suppress need to do their homework better. You hear of it less because they do it with greater subtleness than back home in India.

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Back to Mr Hersh and who dunnit. I still say it is the Americans not only for their vested interests but also for capability. All the America fans on the forum should at least cheer their divers and commandos for pulling this off even if you don't believe they did it!!! Underwater sabotage/commando operations are 5X more complex to execute than say rescuing a hijacked airliner - not saying the latter is difficult just giving a comparison. Working deep underwater, visually blind with only sonar as a guide, trying to locate something covered in several feet of mud and limits on time you can stay down all make it very messy. While the Russian Spetznaz commandos must be still very competent but in underwater technology the Americans are a leap ahead of anyone else. The Americans have been placing devices on the sea floor and retrieving them since the 1960s.

Putin & I seem to be on the same page :-). He is in good company Sorry about my peacock dance, couldn't resist it.

[Latheesh]

All we want to know now is V in your TBHP handle stands for Vladimir!

[itwasntme]

Agree, one does not even need to use Arthur Conan Doyle's famous Sherlock quote, "Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth".

In this case, neither was it impossible nor improbable that the US blew it up.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by itwasntme

In this case, neither was it impossible nor improbable that the US blew it up.

This also shows us just how much Europe can be under the big toe of USA that USA can blow up a major energy infrastructure that causes a heating & power energy crises in the continent, rising fuel costs, economic distress and not one European country can say boo. A reminder to us if we needed it that we should be friends with USA economically but stay as independent as we can in matters of military, energy security, food security etc.

I'll end with a quote from Henry Kissinger...
"The illegal we do immediately. The unconstitutional takes a little longer.
Henry A. Kissinger"

Originally Posted by Latheesh

All we want to know now is V in your TBHP handle stands for Vladimir!

Hmmmmm! Comrade Vladimir must be reading Team BHP

[aim120]

Kremlin also released the same Tucker interview with their own cameras, interesting choice of the camera feed. Tucker cameras where showing how Tucker is reacting, while Kremlin not so much, but mostly concentrated on Putin.

The audio translator of Kremlin is speaking in British accent, they just used the same audio from the translator who was giving live translation to Tucker, while Tucker version has a post production added English translation with a Russian accent but is more accurate word for word as Putin exact words. Kremlin live translators skipped the fine details like humor, yet Tucker did a excellent job.

Rumor is that Tucker also met Snowden and is also coming to India for our PM interview.

Tucker's first world leader that he interviewed was Hungarian PM Viktor Orban who the Biden administration doesn't like but loved by Trump.
Tucker next guest was Putin who again Trump liked.
Tucker next guest allegedly is our PM, again who Trump called him as his friend. With Vivek increasingly looking like he will be the V.P and Tucker wants Vivek as V.P and Vivek knows India's challenges with China.

[Fuldagap]

Originally Posted by DIY410

You are right, Putin won't do anything even long term, he didn't retaliate for the downing of a SU24 by Turkey in syria 2016, (when there was pressure in Russia to down Turkey jets). Instead he briefly scaled back diplomatic ties and he banned Russian imports for a few months.
But then ties improved when Turkey bought the S400, Putin thinks long term. Now turkey is a thorn for NATO.

That was in 2015. It was such a great way to start a war. The last Russian aircraft downed by a NATO member, prior to this, was in 1953. The SU 24 was given warnings for approx 5 mins by patroling Turkish F-16 over a frequency that the SU 24 was not equipped with to receive.

As per Russia, the SU24 never entered Turkey, as per Turkey it entered 2-3 Kms into its territory for 15 secs or so.

Syria had downed a Turkish jet in 2012 after which Turkey decided to be least liberal with stray aircrafts in its airspace. Consequently it downed a Syrian Mi17 in 2013 and a Syrian Mig 23 in 2014. Turkey was now being actively helped by US in patrolling its skies. I have no doubt US played the role of managing this act confusing the parties on both sides using technological edge.

Turkey and Russia cut all military contacts post this. Out of the two pilots who ejected, one was killed by Syrian militants and the other one was being searched for. The two Russian Mi 8 helicopters which went for rescue, one officer was again killed and one Mi 8 was downed again by Syrian militants.

Generally people across boards were hoping Putin to retaliate befittingly. Russia was/is a key player in Syria militarily. But that never happened. Instead S400 got entry at a Syrian airbase as a consequence of this. Moreover, all Russian bombers like the SU24 started being escorted by Russian attack fighters.

When I read the news, I too never thought that Putin would be exhibit resilience and top notch diplomacy in this situation but he proved everyone wrong. It was a test of mettle, a moment of truth.

The Great Game has been going on for centuries and will go on for God knows how long.

[Foxbat]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Putin & I seem to be on the same page :-). He is in good company Sorry about my peacock dance, couldn't resist it.

Brilliant foresight Comrade Narayan. The Order of Lenin awaits you on return to the Motherland!

[BlackBeard]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

When cops investigate a murder, they always seek two questions - (i) who benefits the most from this i.e., incentive; and (ii) who has the capability to commit the crime. From my limited knowledge of military matters the answer to the first is very clear. The answer to the second is only USA. With Russia's Spetsnaz forces having declined in strength and ability only USA today has the ability to conduct an underwater sabotage of this magnitude without getting detected. The underwater part makes the complexity degrees more challenging than say a hostage rescue or liberating a hijacked airliner.

Mr. Narayan, firstly let me congratulate you on your superb quality posts on TBHP. I have been following them for quite sometime, very informative and engaging. Thank you.

Now coming to the Nord stream destruction. The question should be why? we all know the who?

After the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, EU and the USA realized the further consequences if the EU did not amend its heavy reliance on cheap Russian gas and therefore decided to build an overland pipeline from Qatar via Syria and Turkey into the EU.

If you put global incidents of that time in perspective:

1) GCC amended its relations with Qatar after boycotting it (In the meanwhile USA & EU tried & succeeded in selling hi-tech weapons to Qatar - F15, Rafale), because the Pipeline had to start from Qatar via Saudi and then northwards!

2) Turkey became more active in Syria against not ISIS but Assad's government & more belligerent against Russia.

3) Putin being a dyed in the wool KGB man sensed this and the prospective catastrophic consequences for Russia. Hence the magnanimous assistance to Assad against the ISIS!

4) Once Assad's hold over Syria was re-established the USA & EU Qatari gas pipeline to Europe became a pipedream.

USA has not forgiven Russia for this trespass & extracted their revenge at an opportune moment, probably used Ukranians to commit the act for plausible deniability!

IMO the worlds best underwater saboteurs were the Italian COMSUBIN, PANERAI even made watches for them!