[NomadSK]

There is a saying, don't stop your enemy from making a mistake.

If someone can destroy this rogue nation, its not India, its their own citizens/people. So let them tread that path, don't interfere. Afg doesn't care for Durand line & Baluchistan are on their neck. These guys will give enough cuts to them.

They are already on self destruction mode. Good the ceasefire happened and now they would again be in the market with begging bowl. I would have been happy if that cease fire would have happened on our terms & conditions. Now all we need to have is a secured & safe life of our citizens and let government do its job and provide safety to our citizens, we pay taxes for that fundamental constitutional right for each citizen as per article 21.

All India should use his might, energy and diplomacy to cut his loans, put him back in FATF grey list, etc and tighten the noose from all sides as much as possible. Isolate this country from the world. IMO, IWT abeyance was a good move, we can open & close the tap as required.

Unfortunately I don't see any positive coming out of this skirmish from India's point of view, except day 1 where we were clear to hit the "terrorists" assets. After that we played the game on their terms and we didn't had any strategy, except defensing ourselves. War with this country is like wrestling with a pig in the mud, we will get dirty and the pig enjoys it.

The press briefing done by their PM after the cease fire violation, didn't even mention about it. Such is the lies/misinformation coming from their end, Infact they accused India for violating the cease fire. Damn, even our media made us look lunatics on international scene. Being a pillar of our democracy, surely needs some re-structuring. Sorry to say, but they actually won the war of narrative building. I actually don't know what did we achieve with this and Trump declaring cease fire on some "social platform" was an indirect slap to our forces and shows where do we stand in geopolitical concerns. And now Trump will sit with both countries to find the Kashmir solution. I wish he can say this to Taiwan & China to find a solution.

Finally, hoping & praying with this we have deferred the terrorist activity for good and this episode will act as deterrent for a long long time. Let's get back to business of making India an economic might.

[volkman10]

Touching the most sensitive issue. Taking undue credit and aiming for the Noble Peace Prize!



Meanwhile in Russia- Ukraine war,

Putin proposes direct peace talks with Ukraine after three years of war.

> Putin proposes direct talks with Ukraine
> Putin proposes talks on May 15 in Istanbul
> Putin says talks to seek durable peace
> Putin says talks should deal with causes of the conflict
> European leaders tell Putin: agree to Ukraine ceasefire

Russia was proposing direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul in an attempt to "eliminate the root causes of the conflict" and "to achieve the restoration of a long-term, lasting peace" rather than simply a pause for rearmament.

Putin said that he does not rule out that during his proposed talks in Turkey both sides will agree on "some new truces, a new ceasefire," but one that would be the first step towards a "sustainable" peace.

Source: Reuters

[fhdowntheline]

A lot of social media commentary about peace, heralding ceasefire can also be attributed to the fact that there is a generation or two that has been raised in relatively good financial condition, if not prosperity, in increasingly improved social infrastructure. They have not seen "strife" and struggle as a constant mental reminder.
That is not to say that conflicts have to be created, but readiness and national resolve in achieving the stated objectives while tackling them is a must. Drones are now the new "standard marker" of an escalation as opposed to small arms/artillery in the past. The implications of these especially in the border regions must be assessed.

[dust-n-bones]

Originally Posted by volkman10

Touching the most sensitive issue. Taking undue credit and aiming for the Noble Peace Prize!

Attachment 2756383

What is curious is Trump has started to talk increased trade with both countries. Commercial trade does not increase by Presidential Orders, it takes private companies to find mutually beneficial opportunities to do it.

I guess he means that he's telling the Paks that your F-16 squadrons now need replenishment, and then promising the Indians 'the greatest in the world' F35s and predators. And what about a 'tallest in the world', Trump Tower in Worli.
Smart MAGA Bwoy .

[Samurai]

Those who are unhappy that Pakistan was not humiliated enough prior to ceasefire, remember what happened in Treaty of Versailles, where European powers did their best to humiliate Germany. Hitler was able to use it to inflict WW-II on the world.

Besides, India humiliated Pakistan in 1971 and 1999. What did it get us? More of the same.

I prefer the new stance taken by India. Any future act of terror will be treated as act of war. If every terrorist act costs Pakistan couple of billion dollars in retaliatory damage, their principle of death by thousand cuts will start working on them. Even India may lose couple billion dollars in munitions and weaponry every time, but our economy can afford it, Pakistan can't.

[fhdowntheline]

Originally Posted by volkman10

Touching the most sensitive issue. Taking undue credit and aiming for the Noble Peace Prize!

Attachment 2756383

The devil is in the details. "Millions of innocent people could have died."
What is he hinting? Why the sudden move from "none of our business" to working the phone lines. The noticeably 'reluctant' look of the spokesperson and the unusually brief initial statement in the evening. The continued kinetic actions post event. To me it appears that something had happened because of which something bigger was averted.

[Arun_S]

Originally Posted by fhdowntheline

The devil is in the details. "Millions of innocent people could have died."
What is he hinting? Why the sudden move from "none of our business" to working the phone lines. The noticeably 'reluctant' look of the spokesperson and the unusually brief initial statement in the evening. The continued kinetic actions post event. To me it appears that something had happened because of which something bigger was averted.

Heard in a Youtube Channel run by a Major, one of the Bunker busters which hit Rawalpindi Airbase was just short of their Nuclear depot which is nestled deep within mountains. This only made Pak side alarmed and help was sought out.

[SmartCat]

The biggest problem that Pakistan has is lack of strategic depth. All airbases, army HQ, power plants, nuclear weapons storage and energy infrastructure is within 100 km to 400 km from India. And that infamous Karachi Port accounts for 80% to 90% of all Pakistani imports/exports



But why did India quickly agree to a ceasefire?

Once a conflict escalates to a certain level where missiles start to fly, Pak quickly starts to lose its bravado. Although these missiles barely carry 200 kg to 500 kg explosives and cannot "destroy" an airbase, it can quickly degrade its ability to operate normally. Going by news reports, looks like yesterday's Indian missile strikes on 11 or 12 airbases might have triggered Pak's nuclear threshold. If you remember, there were reports that Pak Nuclear Command would meet. It is rumoured that Pak was 'preparing' Nuclear missiles to keep them on standby. There are also unconfirmed OSINT reports that some Indian missiles hit the entrance of nuclear warheads storage facility (deep inside a hill).

You can get a sense of this by "reading between the lines" of NYT/CNN reports and Trump/Rubio tweets:





Important KEYWORDS are:

- Nuclear fears grew
- Received alarming intelligence
- millions of lives would have been lost

I don't think the ceasefire understanding should be read as an "opportunity lost". Especially since:

- Declaration from Indian side that any future terrorist attack on India will automatically trigger a military response
- Vulnerability of Pakistan is exposed (lack of strategic depth). If they start dusting off their nuclear toys, it means they've had enough.
- Abeyance of IWT + India's threat of building water infrastructure over the next 10 years might force Pakistan to come to the negotiating table to discuss/control/eliminate terrorism in Kashmir.

[Red Liner]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Going by news reports, looks like yesterday's Indian missile strikes on 11 or 12 airbases might have triggered Pak's nuclear threshold. There are also unconfirmed reports that some missiles hit the entrance of nuclear warheads storage facility (deep inside a hill).

Good. Now we know exactly where to precision strike the next time they mess around.

And they WILL. That is the only way the army continues to wield power over the government.

[dust-n-bones]

There is a great interview of Ajai Sahni from yesterday, which covers the recent events:
https://www.youtube.com/live/dQ2MxjY_K2c

Originally Posted by SmartCat

I don't think the ceasefire understanding should be read as an "opportunity lost". Especially since:

- Declaration from Indian side that any future terrorist attack on India will automatically trigger a military response

He covers the first point above. We should not be dictated to by a band of 4 terrorists on what to do. There is much else there which shows a great strategic mind. Maybe his reliance on the covert bit is over the top, but that maybe due to his lineage.

And unfortunately the interviewer is a little out of his depth.

[Rudraksh]

Just got to know that India used BRAHMOS to crumple one of the top airbases of pak. (awaiting confirmation from a genuine source)
If True, then the Indian Defence & Govt.. planned something big and heavy for the retaliation.

I'm not sure whether BRAHMOS has variants from minor to lethal destruction. One thing is clear that Indian Defence Techs have saved us, and they have built the best products at the finest.

[locusjag]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

The biggest problem that Pakistan has is lack of strategic depth.... And that infamous Karachi Port accounts for 80% to 90% of all Pakistani imports/exports

Moreover, Karachi port accounts for 70% of Pakistan's tax revenue it seems. There is no mentionable taxable base in Pakistan to levy income taxes upon and so the Karachi port, where customs duties can reliably be levied and collected by Pakistan, is the one place where a semblance of income to their government is in place. This is why in every conflict, Karachi will be the jugular vein that India will go for.

[CarNerd]

Originally Posted by NomadSK

Isolate this country from the world. IMO, IWT abeyance was a good move, we can open & close the tap as required.

Even the most isolated country in the world, North Korea trades with China, frequently launches missile tests and threatens Japan and South Korea with no fear. Russia supports North Korea as well: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china...ck_logged_in=1

There is absolutely no way of opening and closing the tap as required except stopping the sharing of data. To close the tap, we need massive investments for projects on a large scale and consider the risk of heightened seismic activity. In any case, IWT is a double edged sword as China can use the same weapon against us:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-in...river-lifeline

And now Trump will sit with both countries to find the Kashmir solution. I wish he can say this to Taiwan & China to find a solution.

America wants Taiwan to be an independent country and supplies arms to defend itself from China. It's entirely different from the Kashmir dispute.

If all the world powers including the US, EU, Russia, etc come together and find a solution, it would be great to establish long lasting peace and development. Otherwise, this kind of attacks and conflicts are bound to happen and we have to spend a large part of our GDP on weapons.

Originally Posted by Samurai

Besides, India humiliated Pakistan in 1971 and 1999. What did it get us? More of the same.

We are dealing with a country that broke into two, suffered a humiliating defeat in 1971 and yet decided to occupy our territory in 1999 before retreating. When 1971 couldn't prevent them from doing 1999, what's the guarantee 2025 would prevent them in the future?

Any future act of terror will be treated as act of war. If every terrorist act costs Pakistan couple of billion dollars in retaliatory damage, their principle of death by thousand cuts will start working on them. Even India may lose couple billion dollars in munitions and weaponry every time, but our economy can afford it, Pakistan's cant.

Pakistan can't but China can. Pakistan is China's henchman and the Boss would be more than happy to see his aide trouble his main competitor India while the Boss can focus on growing his empire. Money is not a problem for the Boss as long as he has loyal men fighting for him. Who knows in future, the Boss might even make Bangladesh a second henchman to trouble us if we don't pay attention.

[fhdowntheline]

But why did India quickly agree to a ceasefire?

Once a conflict escalates to a certain level where missiles start to fly, Pak quickly starts to lose its bravado. Although these missiles barely carry 200 kg to 500 kg explosives and cannot "destroy" an airbase, it can quickly degrade its ability to operate normally. Going by news reports, looks like yesterday's Indian missile strikes on 11 or 12 airbases might have triggered Pak's nuclear threshold. If you remember, there were reports that Pak Nuclear Command would meet. It is rumoured that Pak was 'preparing' Nuclear missiles to keep them on standby. There are also unconfirmed OSINT reports that some Indian missiles hit the entrance of nuclear warheads storage facility (deep inside a hill).

You can get a sense of this by "reading between the lines" of NYT/CNN reports and Trump/Rubio tweets:

Attachment 2756391

Attachment 2756392

Important KEYWORDS are:

- Nuclear fears grew
- Received alarming intelligence
- millions of lives would have been lost

Curiously, there was also a 4.0 earthquake at 0144 hours on Saturday. Make what you will of that.

[dailydriver]

"Who/What is right and who/what is wrong" is something that will never have a definite answer. I prefer to believe my version and the other person, his. The only truth is that there is no one truth!



May God grace us all with his good offices.