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BHPian Stribog recently shared this with other enthusiasts.
There are many preconceived "notions" that many of us have on road accidents. A few I see often in many threads in this forum itself:
And a lot more.
Well, let us look at the numbers behind accidents in India. Morbid yes, but relevant also IMO. MoRTH publishes data annually (like pretty much all central govt. bureaus like say NCRB) which can be a treasure trove for those who like number crunching.
At the outset though, there is no escaping the fact that Indian roads are fatal in absolute numbers.
Some Meta stats - All data are from the Sept report, covering 2019-20 (no report has been published thus far this year, but would be interesting to see the impact COVID had on accidents)
Historical Perspective:
While things seem very bleak at this moment, historical data puts this in an entirely different light. There has been a drastic reduction in accidents, fatalities and injuries starting 1970 on though the number of vehicles on the road has exploded.
Some top-line numbers:
1970 - Vehicle Density (VD) 1.18 (number of vehicles / km of road), Fatality Rate (FR) 103.5 (this is the number of fatal accidents per 10,000 pop)
1980 - VD 3.03, FR 53.1
1990 - VD 9.65, FR 28.3
2000 - VD 14.73, FR 16.2
While our vehicle density went up 4.5X from 1980 to 2000, our FR dropped by 70%
2010 - VD 27.88, FR 10.5
2018 - VD 39.78, FR 6.2 (data for 2019 not available when this report was published)
From 2010-18, our VD went up by 42%, but our FR dropped by 40%.
If these values are projected into the future, our accident and FR might just meet the Stockholm commitment of halving road accidents and fatalities by 2030.
Coming up in part 2, would be vehicle-wise accident and fatality rates. Let us see if the urban legends hold up or remain that, urban legends.
Here's what BHPian RedTerrano had to say on the matter:
I cannot help but wonder, how the authorities arrived at the conclusion that over speeding caused accidents leading to death. How many speed traps or radar guns have been deployed on the highways? Is any data available for this?
How about non-fatal accidents on the highways? How many caused due to lack of lane demarcation, lack or road signs, unpainted speed breakers, road blockages set up by local RTA (without proper signage or reflectors)? Any data available on this?
Also, is there any data available for German autobahns where there is no speed limit? How do those fatalities fare as compared to Indian highways?
Here's what BHPian PearlJam had to say on the matter:
Why do you think this is a preconceived notion? Rest of the things being the same, even a gentle hit to a two wheeler traveling at 30 KMPH could cause the rider to fall. Or, there could be a small oil patch on the road that causes the rider to skid and fall. They could get crushed by other vehicles. They could have head injuries if the helmet was improper. They could be affected by sudden winds. A car driver would most likely remain safe, even in a Maruti 800, in the same situation. This is just one example. I'm not even talking of any safety equipment.
You have given a few numbers that some show absolute numbers and a few percentages. This is no way "concludes" your points (1) and (2). For example, there are no numbers on 2 wheelers vs cars on our roads. There are no rough average numbers on the distances travelled (or time spent on the road) by 2 wheelers vs cars. There are no numbers on whether they drive/ride in the cities or on the highways. There are no numbers on the average speeds. There is no mention of day/night driving/riding. I see the numbers as meaningless and incomplete.
Am I missing something here?
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