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Old 3rd November 2011, 16:16   #1
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Default October 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Note from Mod : November Sales have been added at this link (November 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis). The discussion can continue on the new thread. Thread closed.

Last edited by GTO : 2nd December 2011 at 01:43. Reason: Adding link to November
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Old 3rd November 2011, 16:16   #2
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Default Re: October 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

High Points on the October 2011 Sales:

- Not too many crackers & diyas for the auto industry last month. The Diwali & Dusshera holidays usually lead to a big spike in auto sales, with most customers actually planning their car delivery around these two auspicious occasions. Unfortunately, the weak market sentiment, high interest rates and stratospheric petrol prices resulted in a damp holiday season. It's sad that there are no signs of improvement in the near future either.

- The long-drawn strikes hit Maruti the hardest in October...the company's sales were down 50+% (year on year). The Alto hit a new low, at a mere 15,000 units sold (usually closes the month at anywhere between 20 - 30K sales). The Ritz, WagonR & SX4 - regular strong movers - also suffered a drastic decline in volume. Kudos to Maruti for somehow managing to deliver nearly 8,000 Swifts though. Even Dzire deliveries were reasonably managed at the ~5,000 mark. Maruti's market share for the last month was the lowest in a long time, and even though labour problems (hopefully) are behind it, regaining lost market share points will not be easy. We must also spare a thought for Maruti's vendors who are far smaller in size and have suffered greatly in these trying times. Some competitors recorded a marginal spike in sales (i10, Vista, Figo etc.); a part of this could be attributed to Marutis being unavailable at showrooms.

- Hyundai had some unpredictable hits & misses in October. Take the i10 for instance, it's performance is surprisingly back to the pre-petrol-hike days at a strong 11.5 thousand shipments. Possibly, the number includes a lot of Maruti converts. The premium i20 maintained its 2011 monthly average, and closed October @ 6,800. The fluidic Verna also maintained a comfortable lead over the City & Vento, retaining the title of the best selling upper C segment sedan. On the other hand, the Santro dropped to an all-time low of a mere 3,100 units. Take it as the Eon effect; whether Hyundai adjusted production in favour of the Eon (unlikely) or customers cross-shopped in favour of the new hatch is unknown. After the petrol price hike in June 2011, Hyundai's total sales had dipped to the ~25,000 level. The Eon takes Hyundai back to 30,000+ (35K in September, and 33K in October). It will be interesting to see how the Eon gains traction in the entry-level hatchback segment. Santa Fe imports & deliveries appear to have become strong in the August-September period.

- Tata's passenger car sales improved 3% over October 2010. While Nano numbers have gone up, 3,800 is still nothing for a ~2 lakh rupee car in India. Tata simply hasn't marketed the car well enough. The Indica / Vista & Indigo CS / Manza continue their respectable performance for the 2nd month in a row. The Indica sisters - especially - clocked over 10,000 units, while the Indigo / Manza together occupy the best selling sedan category. The Sumo / Grande is slowly inching back to the 2.5K level it was previously used to, recording a sales increase for the 4th month in a row. Not much happening for the Safari though, and even the Aria isn't able to sustain the 500+ point it managed last month with the cheaper 4x2's introduction. The sheer value of the XUV500 will inevitably put Aria buyers in a fix.

- Someone forgot to tell the Bolero that market conditions aren't favourable. India's favourite UV has yet another outstanding month with over 8,000 copies sold! The Scorpio also has a good run, nearly touching the 4,200 mark, while the Xylo continues its mediocre performance at 2,431. XUV500 deliveries gaining traction and should cross 2,000 soon. Remember that Mahindra's new premium SUV is sold out for 4 months.

- The Beat diesel climbs up impressively, becoming the first Chevy to record 5,000+ sales (for 3 of the last 4 months). On the other hand, the Spark inexplicably records another sub-2K month. The li'l Spark is a very competent hatchback and has some great discounts on offer. Except for the General giving production preference to the Beat, I can't think of any other reason for the Spark's fall as it was a consistent 3,000 - 3,300 performer. The Cruze overtakes the Corolla once again, but the Optra, Aveo & UVA continue as market duds. The Captiva also appears to be fast losing favour with 20 lakh rupee SUV customers.

- Riding high on the Liva & Etios, Toyota is one of the rare manufacturers to record a whopping 63% growth year-on-year. The Etios, unsurprisingly, outsold the Liva. Remember that the Etios has to fend off lesser competition than its hatchback sibling. The Innova, Corolla & Fortuner have had a good - not excellent - month. Prado CBU imports see a noticeable rise.

- The Figo has amongst its best month in 6. Ford's heavily cashing in on the excellent 1.4 TDCi engine, I doubt there are too many people buying the 1.2 petrol. The ol' Fiesta, who sales have shot up after the new generation's launch, has a decent month @ 1,549 cars. The overpriced 2011 Fiesta performs as expected and is a market failure in only its 4 month of launch. Will Ford swallow a bitter pill & reposition the car? There really is no other way out to correct this strategical error.

- The all-rounded Vento overtakes the Honda City again, but only just @ 3,474 dealer dispatches. Slight improvement with the Polo too, which ended October with a score of 3,340. The new Jetta has given VW the volumes it expected and does 373 cars (the previous-gen Jetta fared much poorer in comparison). However, the Passat simply cannot touch the Superb in the premium sedan space.

- Honda has 6,000 Brio bookings and a long waiting period for the Jazz (IIRC, backlog of 4,000). However, Honda isn't able to maximise the opportunity that it's well-priced new hatchback brings. Reason? The Thailand floods. Only 1,220 Brios were shipped in October, and the price-cut Jazz shows no real improvement from its overpriced days (463 units). The City continues as Honda's star performer bringing in a score of 3,376. The Civic remains a market dud, while the Accord stays within a 20% reach of the Skoda Superb (the segment king). Keeping in mind that the Accord lacks a diesel engine, this isn't too bad.

- The Nissan Sunny has a great entry-price point and finds 1,340 new homes in October. I expect it to settle at around the 1,500 mark; after the diesel arrives, the Sunny should easily cross 2,000 in the first quarter of 2012. The Micra has its best performance in 6 months @ 1,619 units.

- After two poor months, Skoda has a relatively better diwali season. The Fabia is back at the 1,400 level (albeit no match for sister company's Polo), and the Laura @ 406 outsells both, the Jetta & the Civic. The Yeti, with its small unappealing design, simply fails to find any takers @ merely 103 sales. The Superb continues to be the best selling luxury car in its class.

- Rounding up the rear are HM-Mitsubishi (all cars tanking, save for the Pajero that brings in some $$$) and Fiat (Punto recording its lowest ever sales). I understand that Fiat has problems, but still, things are that bad that the cars should only sell 622 units. When things get tough, the weakest are the first to lose, I guess.

Last edited by GTO : 3rd November 2011 at 16:35.
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Old 3rd November 2011, 16:27   #3
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Default Re: October 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Thanks GTO, this is what i was waiting (the monthly numbers) for, as posted earlier Toyota is finally down on Fortuner and Altis and the number are almost the lowest for the last 4-5 months. The only saving grace is Etios and Liva which have kept the numbers high.

Do you reckon Toyota will now revisit the prices of its Altis and Fortuner? Fortuner maybe not but Altis (Petrol for sure) if not lowering the price maybe some discounts or freebies?

Last edited by mayankjha1806 : 3rd November 2011 at 16:28.
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Old 3rd November 2011, 16:29   #4
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Default Re: October 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Thanks for the brilliant report and analysis GTO!
This period is normally a high peak for all Auto manufacturers, but this year has been an exception and somehow most buyers have stayed away from committing to car purchases due to the economic uncertainty and high interest rates.
Inspite of so many incentives being offered by most car manufacturers, demand has not picked up. There is also a severe impact on large manufacturers like Maruti (strikes + Japan situation), Toyota (Thailand floods) , Honda (Japan situation), VW + Skoda (Forex increase) which have negatively impacted sentiment and performance of the auto companies. Many of them are facing the most challenging times ever.
The balance 2 months of this year are going to be all the more difficult for all the manufacturers as the global situation is not likely to improve at least for the next 3 months.
There is a further double whammy expected from the Indian government hiking taxes on diesel cars and also cars on the whole.

(PS: GTO, do you feel that XUV can cause a decline in Fortuner bookings or has it been more due to supply constraints from Thailand? Recently, I got a call from the Toyota dealer (where I had queried 1 year back for the Fortuner) and they are ready to give immediate delivery for Silver colour.. maybe they are also trying to clear the old stock before they launch the new version)


Last edited by Behemoth : 3rd November 2011 at 16:31.
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Old 3rd November 2011, 16:32   #5
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Default Re: October 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Thanks for the thread GTO! Was looking forward to see how Fiat performs this month with discounts on Punto and Linea. Needless to say, i'm shocked at just 622 units in ALL. Really hope they can do something to revive the brand.

Kudos to Maruti on delivering close to 8000 Swifts despite the labour problems. If there are no further labour issues at the plant, i'm sure Swift will be back to doing 17-18k atleast until the backlog clears.

I'm happy to see the Laura ahead of Jetta in its segment.

Last edited by shashank.nk : 3rd November 2011 at 16:36. Reason: corrected sentence
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Old 3rd November 2011, 16:33   #6
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Default Re: October 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Commendable from MS on the Swift, and Dzire Sales. VW Vento and Polo's seems to gain momemtum - Breeze efect?
Honda relegated to number 4 in C segment. Jazz seems to have delivery issues and Brio seems to have okay sales to start with.
Hyundai seems to have gained at the expense of Maruti in the i10 sales. Eon has taken a share of the Santro market?

With the effect of the petrol hike it will be interesting to see the Nov sales figures.


Last edited by volkman10 : 3rd November 2011 at 16:50.
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Old 3rd November 2011, 16:38   #7
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Default Re: October 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Very few companies managed a positive growth this month. Maruti without doubt has lost the maximum sales in the best month. The strike could not have HIT at a worser time. I see some of the sales of Hyundai is better, while Skoda had the best month - probably due to the discounts & free insurance / skoda shield offered??

Did it happen that even Toyota had some problems with the Thailand floods? Some of the numbers are pretty lower compared to previous months. If XUV has done the magic against the Fortuner, then we could expect some discounts soon enough I guess.

Last edited by swiftnfurious : 3rd November 2011 at 16:42.
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Old 3rd November 2011, 16:40   #8
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Default Re: October 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Pretty safe to predict Linea is dead. 4 months consecutive at less than 200 units. Punto is really struggling too. All the waiting period for swift hasn't transformed into sales for punto. Fiat has to rethink on the alliance.

A tie up with maruti can save FIAT. They are on the lookout for engines too. As I see, tata tie is beneficial only for tata, not fiat.
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Old 3rd November 2011, 16:45   #9
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Default Re: October 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Hyundai i10 and i20 surely has benefited from MUL's woes. The impact should be positive for Hyundai for the next 1-2 months. The Verna continues to be strong and the its consistency reflects the customer confidence on the car.

I am little foxed by the 28% drop in the Innova dispatches. The Innova has a long waiting period and one would have expected higher deliveries. The only reason could be the delays in parts from Thailand. Thailand impact would be felt for TKM for some time I guess.

It will be interesting to see XUV's impact on Fortuner in the next 6 months.

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Old 3rd November 2011, 16:48   #10
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Default Re: October 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Thanks GTO. The thread that I look forward to. What is the scene with Renault?
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Old 3rd November 2011, 16:49   #11
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Default Re: October 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Thanks GTO for the update. Tata still has not got the act right with Nano despite steep discounts & lower down payment.
Eon seems to have got a good head start not sure if Hyundai is planning a diesel heart for it soon..
Ford I agree to GTO's view point. Hope they get their act togather
Innova seems to have taken a dip..is it XUV effect?
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Old 3rd November 2011, 17:03   #12
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Default Re: October 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Dont you think that Alto's share is some what stolen by the EON. It seems so from the figures, i suspect many customers will definetly move to the better looking EON than the Alto in future.
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Old 3rd November 2011, 17:04   #13
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Default Re: October 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Thanks GTO, for the quick post and analysis.

Worrying figures for almost all auto companies. Only exception seems to be Mahindra, which is playing all the right cards.

VW, Nissan doing okay, given their relatively newcomer stature and everyone else have some thing or else to worry

Am already itching to see the Nov figures, after the Maruti strike effect. Sure others will take some hits here and there once Maruti is off in full steam.

Last edited by CoolFire : 3rd November 2011 at 17:09.
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Old 3rd November 2011, 17:06   #14
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Default Re: October 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Hyundai numbers are the most interesting. i10 is back at 11K+; WagonR/Ritz converts? Eitherways excellent numbers for the petrol only car! Looks like what many on the forum predicted has come to be true - Eon cutting into Santro sales.

I wonder what is wrong with Tata Venture? Is it lack of marketing? How can it sell 10 times less than the likes of Eeco, with its diesel USP!

Last edited by safari_lover : 3rd November 2011 at 17:10.
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Old 3rd November 2011, 17:08   #15
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Default Re: October 2011 : Indian Car Sales & Analysis

Fantastic as usual . Toyota certainly need to bring in the bigger diesel for Altis with an auto , autobox for the Innova and fortuner as well. Iam not sure whether they will drop prices in view of the strong competition. In short mahindra's new launch has certainly raised the benchmark .
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