[PrideRed]

Originally Posted by driftagain

I think Maruti will soon face a reality check. Maruti is more perception than facts. This holds true for their cars as well as share price. What the consumer is looking for nowadays is new products. Maruti has had a plenty of new launches in the past 2-3 years and some have done well exceptionally(brezza, baleno, dzire) and some not (Ignis -already discounts are being offered, S Cross). The products are neither best built nor best priced( which was the case earlier). The competition is fast catching up and there are plenty of good launches that have just happened and some around the corner.
I will just list a couple of strong competitors to Maruti products :

To sell something you need a decent product and a strong battalion of marketing -This is what Maruti is. I would agree with you that their cars are not segment best but their Marketing,reach, strategies are unbeatable. Its almost a decade since the advent of so called strong competetion but so far none have been able to challenge Maruti's throne. Unless Maruti commits a mistake I don't see anyone beat it or come close for another 10 years.

[romeomidhun]

Originally Posted by driftagain

I think Maruti will soon face a reality check. Maruti is more perception than facts.

You can't survive on perception for a long long 30 years. Maruti is here for a long time. And I think it's the competition which come up with products, sell well for 6 months or 1 year, then fall off.

Originally Posted by driftagain

This holds true for their cars as well as share price. What the consumer is looking for nowadays is new products. Maruti has had a plenty of new launches in the past 2-3 years and some have done well exceptionally(brezza, baleno, dzire) and some not (Ignis -already discounts are being offered, S Cross). The products are neither best built nor best priced( which was the case earlier).

Just note that it's Maruti who came up with more and better products in the recent times. Just because there is a Nexon or Compass doesn't mean the competition is the best.

Originally Posted by driftagain

The competition is fast catching up and there are plenty of good launches that have just happened and some around the corner.

OK, but what happened to the market share of Maruti? Now it sits at around 52%!

Originally Posted by driftagain

Nexon-Better built and way more reasonably priced than the brezza....
Ecosport: Offers Petrol, AT options,better build, ride and handling, now great interiors and competitively priced

Did they affect Brezza anytime? No!

Originally Posted by driftagain

Verna-Now since the Ciaz has lost the FAME subsidy advantage, the Verna is back in the game and how.

City - It has already regained its lost glory from Ciaz.

All these 3 are neck-to-neck in terms of sales. Ciaz is still there with others.

Originally Posted by driftagain

New Amaze (Around Feb, March 18)- I am sure Honda would ensure it gives tough competition to DZzire

All New Family Car from Hyundai - Due early 2018. Will make life tough for Wagon R and the likes.

Carlino from Hyundai (End 2018) - Should be another tough fight in C SUV segment.

Jazz Facelift - Should see fresher interiors and more prominent front.

Some other not so significant launches - Figo Cross, Vios (still doubtful of 2018 launch), Go Cross, XUV 300, Kicks, Tigor EV, Tiago EV, KUV100 EV, Redigo AMT

So, you are saying all these Future products will be huge success and dethrone Maruti? Isn't this the perception? We are hearing from Maruti's Doomsayers for the past 20 years that Maruti is out and lost. What's the reality? You check the sales figures.

[driftagain]

Originally Posted by PrideRed

To sell something you need a decent product and a strong battalion of marketing -This is what Maruti is. I would agree with you that their cars are not segment best but their Marketing,reach, strategies are unbeatable. Its almost a decade since the advent of so called strong competetion but so far none have been able to challenge Maruti's throne. Unless Maruti commits a mistake I don't see anyone beat it or come close for another 10 years.

10 years is way too optimistic. The world is a lot more dynamic today. Who knows what future holds once the electrics come in and there is no more the question "KITNA DETI HAI". There are TESLAs of the world and in 3 years since inception there is NIO (China) having a TESLA MODEL X challenger at half the price.
5 years back cab aggregators were not a force.
3 years back self drives had barely picked up.
So now a days you cannot project future so certainly.

2 years back no one expected some one to launch a product in competition to Alto and do well. Still KWID was launched by renault and they have sold in range of 7 to 10K per month since launch which is no mean feat with just 1/20th the dealerships of Maruti and even DATSUN selling 3k Redigos which most of us think doesn't even matter as a brand.

More and more customers would like to have better vehicles and Maruti has nothing special beyond 10 Lac which is where the customers would like to upgrade to in future. 3 years back even Hyundai didn't expect they would sell 10k copies of Creta.


In 2019 we also have KIA launching in India. Hyundai would not be just sitting out.

TATAs and Mahindras have an early advantage in electrics whereas Maruti is still planning for 2020. TIGOR EV top model makes a compelling case at 11 lac for city driving and the price should reduce going further.

JEEP has had a warm reception in India and they have a good future line up with Renegade expected in 2018.

As the customer becomes more aware and the market is large enough every car maker would want a pie and would fight for it.

All in all it is a tough ride for Maruti and no cake walk

[Nav-i-gator]

I would say, generally, 8 out of 10 first time car buyers in India buy a Maruti (there is a car suited to every budget and every need in the entry segment with MS). And most of them stay with Maruti in their 2nd, 3rd buys as well (till they enter higher end segment where maruti is not present). It's a case of catching them early and not letting them go. And maruti has been good at retaining the first timers within their stable by giving them plenty of models to choose from, essentially on looks ( All share basically the same 1.3 DDIS) with strong sense of familarity (most of their cars have same engine, drive same, have many of the interior bits same as well).

Off late, MS have started to play assertive as well - introducing AMT to India, a proper sized cross-over (S-cross), an old-school looking C-SUV (brezza), an spacious and light (both on weight and on pocket) Hatchback (Baleno) and a classy and clean looking sedan (Ciaz). One thing thay don't have is new and bigger engines. One that can take the fight in to the "enthusiast" segment also. S-cross, Ciaz are under-powered and still selling good. Imagine what a 1.5L diesel (like ford/Toyota), or a 1.5L/1.6L Petrol (like Honda or Hyundai) can do.

More than Maruti, I guess Hyundai would be under pressure with growing competition.

As long as Maruti OWNS the entry level segment (and with them, the first time car buyers), it will continue to dominate.

[RaghuVis]

Originally Posted by driftagain

New Amaze (Around Feb, March 18)- I am sure Honda would ensure it gives tough competition to DZzire

You think Amaze is going to dethrone Dzire? The highest numbers posted by Amaze was around 5-6 years back when it sold 10-12K units in it's peak. Dzire does those numbers even during production shutdowns!

This hatred towards MSIL is simply astounding. I just hope people realize that all the bricks and mud that are being thrown at MSIL, they are carefully catching it a building an impregnable castle.

[desiaztec]

Originally Posted by RaghuVis

You think Amaze is going to dethrone Dzire? The highest numbers posted by Amaze was around 5-6 years back when it sold 10-12K units in it's peak. Dzire does those numbers even during production shutdowns!

Adding to that, what I got to know from one of the Honda dealerships in South Delhi 3 years back when I was buying Amaze (P), that Honda has limited production capacity and their plant is usually running full capacity barring the seasonal downs. Honda has given a target to all their dealers which they are easily able to meet. When I asked that are they content selling 50ish pieces of CRV, 500ish pieces of Brio, 800ish pieces of Mobilio, he told me that the company is achieving its targets. He also tells me that his target of selling only 1 CRV and about 15-20 Brio in a month is considered to be an achievement.

So in this case, 15k-18k looks too optimistic as they would have to compromise on their existing production. But hey, this is just another 'Perception'. 6 something years back, bhpians had predicted doom for Maruti when Vento was launched, and then the Duster, City, Jazz, Kwid, Eon etc. The reality is in front of us. Even during the last leg of SX4, it was doing numbers much appreciated by Fiat, Skoda, Force and Mitsubishi.

In my case, I'm tired of buying Marutis, though love driving my Swift (P) and 800 cc and owning them but my next might not be a Maruti.

We can't deny the fact that moving this giant to another spot will be a herculean task.

With their association with Toyota now, things might go up north from the time EV's get introduced.

P.S. I changed my mind, I will still buy a small Maruti, Lol

Disclaimer: I own shares in Maruti, and am at a good unrealized profit.

[driftagain]

Originally Posted by RaghuVis

You think Amaze is going to dethrone Dzire? The highest numbers posted by Amaze was around 5-6 years back when it sold 10-12K units in it's peak. Dzire does those numbers even during production shutdowns!

I don't have any hatred against Maruti my first was a Swift 1st gen, then the Figo Diesel. I sold the swift after about 70k kms and Figo at 105k kms. I used to spend more on Swift service than I did on my Figo and there were no rattles in Figo (occasional ones were resolved) whereas I just had to drive my swift 500kms after service and all the door noises were back. So everything I have said is from personal experience and not just perception. My friend's Brezza has rattles after just 15k and felt flimsy in comparison. I did consider S-Cross but there was too much of engine noise and less power for the 1.3 diesel so went for Nexon.

I never said that the Amaze will dethrone Dzire what I did say is that it would offer competition. Amaze has come down to about 2-3K which is way below 10-12k you claim it achieved. If it can do those numbers or say even 8-9k it would be good.

I my opinion the stock is overvalued and is factoring in consistent 20-30% profit growth which will not be coming.

Maruti sales have increased about 50% from 2013-14 levels (1053689)
Ref: http://www.business-standard.com/art...0100468_1.html
Current year would be approx. 1620000
However the stock has risen 5.5 times (1800 in Jan 2014, 9800 in Dec 2017). I know there has been margin improvement and improvement in realisation per car but it still trades at a trailing PE of 38 which is way ahead and assumes all other companies are dead which will not be the case.
Current margins stand at 17% and this is after paying 4-5% royalty to Suzuki. I believe these are not sustainable. They have been in the range of 9-10% earlier. If you believe otherwise then you can buy the stock it is anyways an open market. Happy Investing.

[RaghuVis]

Originally Posted by driftagain

I don't have any hatred against Maruti my first was a Swift 1st gen.

Well What you put up in this post is totally different from your previous one which I had quoted. In that one, you were bashing MSIL left right center and some were without much value. There was no mention of Stocks or Margins or niggles. That post was more to do with how MSIL is going to have a reality check.

Just look at your posts.

1) New Amaze (Around Feb, March 18)- I am sure Honda would ensure it gives tough competition to DZzire

I already Commented so not going to touch again.

2) All New Family Car from Hyundai - Due early 2018. Will make life tough for Wagon R and the likes.

No one has even seen that car but you want to write an obituary for Wagon R which sold close to 1.5 Lakh Units this year alone.

3) Carlino from Hyundai (End 2018) - Should be another tough fight in C SUV segment.

Agree with you. It should and It will. But remember, MSIL is going to launch both Petrol as well as MT versions of Brezza. They are not sitting idle.

4) Jazz Facelift - Should see fresher interiors and more prominent front.

Jazz Version 1 and 2 are flops. How do you think a mild refresh is going to give a reality check to MSIL?

5) Some other not so significant launches - Figo Cross, Vios (still doubtful of 2018 launch), Go Cross, XUV 300, Kicks, Tigor EV, Tiago EV, KUV100 EV, Redigo AMT

Apart from Vios which you are also doubtful about the launch, can you name one car among all these which can give a reality check to MSIL?

EV being a mass market is a dream few years away. Datsun Go sells 500 units on average. Redigo sells a decent 3K units. AMT is not going to shoot the sales to give a scare to MSIL which sells 20K Alto's per month.


PS: I Don't hold MSIL Stocks nor intend or afford to have one
PPS: I Don't have a MSIL car and I usually say "Never Say Never" but I won't buy a single one being sold here right now and that is just my personal opinion.

[redcruiser]

People buy Maruti because of the low cost of maintenance and the widespread service network across the length and breadth of our country.

The dream run of Maruti can only halt if any other manufacturer can match with the service aspect. It needs a concentrated and long-term effort by the management.
I guess TAMO is fast catching up.

[pacman2881]

Some interesting facts on Maruti's stock market performance-

Maruti Suzuki has become the world's most expensive one in terms of price to earnings (P/E) multiple, overtaking Italian sports carmaker Ferrari

Its m-cap of Rs 3 lakh crore is more than that of Tata Motors, M&M and Hero MotoCorp combined

Maruti is likely to enjoy a golden run over next 3-5 years with limited competition, stable industry growth and benefit from change in emission norms.

https://m.economictimes.com/industry...w/62186244.cms

[jetsetgo08]

Originally Posted by driftagain

TATAs and Mahindras have an early advantage in electrics whereas Maruti is still planning for 2020. TIGOR EV top model makes a compelling case at 11 lac for city driving and the price should reduce going further.

All in all it is a tough ride for Maruti and no cake walk

Disagree. Brezza was launched almost half a decade later than the Ecosport which is touted as the vehicle that spawned compact SUV segment. But the sales figures completely contradict first movers advantage. This would most likely be the case when Maruti enters EV segment. I wish Tata's, Mahindra's enjoy all the benefits before Maruti spoils a healthy competition.

Originally Posted by driftagain

I used to spend more on Swift service than I did on my Figo.

Agreed. Cheaper cost of maintenance is a myth. However, what you enjoy is the astounding resale (esp. Swift/Dzire/Ertiga diesels) even after abusing the vehicle to the core through the ownership.

[volkman10]

Maruti Suzuki raises sales target to 2.5 million units by 2025.

Maruti Suzuki has asked vendors PPAP Automotive, JBM Auto, Minda Industries and Lumax Auto to ramp up investments near Suzuki’s Gujarat plant to meet the sales target

The company, which had in 2015 set itself a target of 2 million in sales by 2020, will achieve that target one year ahead of schedule

Maruti sold 1.5 million units in 2016-17.

Link

Maruti Suzuki on a cash ride, coffers expand by 28%.

The coffers of the country’s biggest carmaker, Maruti Suzuki, are growing at a quicker pace than its vehicle sales, thanks to a surge in profits. The Suzuki-promoted company has seen its cash reserves swell by a sharp 28 per cent over the past one year to Rs 30,500 crore and it continues to grow bigger.

The cash reserve has more than doubled over the past two years from Rs 13,000 crore. The domestic car sales volume of the company is also growing at 15 per cent

Link1

[Durango Dude]

Maruti is on a roll period! What the future holds: Your guess is as good as mine. What I'd like to see is either you improve on the reliability of the AMT or accept defeat and dump it, instead of persisting with technology that's not to reliable/refined. I'd like to see CVT take center stage and AMT's be slowly eased out. Maruti doesn't give an AMT for the Baleno or the Ciaz for that it has the CVT and Torque Converter automatics. AMT's are reseved for it's 'cheap' products Dzire and below. Ignis should have been given a CVT rather than an AMT for the price range it's in. I'd like the new Swift come with an automatic but not an AMT. AMT's need to be improved upon and be given hill hold assist & proper 'creep' function across the board.

[driftagain]

Originally Posted by jetsetgo08

Disagree. Brezza was launched almost half a decade later than the Ecosport which is touted as the vehicle that spawned compact SUV segment. But the sales figures completely contradict first movers advantage.

Brezza was launched about 2.5 years after ecosport, it is closer to a quarter of a decade if you want to compare. The Ecosport had a waiting period of upto 9 months and Ford became greedy with exports because of cheaper rupee. For Ford it was a lost opportunity as did not supply as per demand. There was a lot of pent up demand when Brezza was launched, even Dzire sales were effected.

Originally Posted by jetsetgo08

Agreed. Cheaper cost of maintenance is a myth. However, what you enjoy is the astounding resale (esp. Swift/Dzire/Ertiga diesels) even after abusing the vehicle to the core through the ownership.

That is the case only with the vehicles you have mentioned and resale values are/were pathetic for Estilo, A-Star, Old Baleno, SX4, Ritz to name a few. Honda has the best resale value, try buying even a 1st gen Honda City and the prices quoted would surprise you. Others are not too far for models which have sold well. Hyundai has good resale. I got a good value for my 7 year old Figo diesel. Less % depreciation than my Swift petrol sold after 5 years.

[volkman10]

In 2017, Maruti Suzuki outpaced the domestic market with total sales growing 14.9% to 16,02,522 units.

As per industry estimates, passenger vehicle sales in the local market were estimated to have increased 8.7% to 3.2 million units in the year. Maruti Suzuki’s market share last year was around 50%, while second placed Hyundai Motor held about 16.5%.

Seven of the top TEN bestsellers were from Maruti Suzuki.



Link