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Old 6th October 2020, 22:22   #46
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Default Re: September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vin76 View Post
Thatís right. It includes the allspace. Only around 300 units of Allspace seems to have moved to the dealership. Assuming, they got all three in equal numbers, they still have more than 500 units of Allspace, whereas Karoq and T roc have almost fully moved to the dealers.
I am quoting this thread on another TBHP discussion:
https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/india...ml#post4849261 (The Skoda Karoq, now launched at Rs 24.99 lakhs)

So it looks like this 2500 per year quota was distributed across 2 Financial Years FY 19-20 quota had 1500 T Roc's, 800 Allspace's and 200 Octavia vRS's. This information, the OP on that post says is from Steffen Knapp's interview. So, Karoqs must have been imported under the FY 20-21 quota.

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Old 6th October 2020, 23:00   #47
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Default Re: September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by TorqueIndia View Post
Toyota URBAN CRUISER where is it ? In an attempt to topple KIA SONET numbers in its launch month, Maruti put the UC numbers together with Brezza ?
Deliveries of the Urban Cruiser were meant to begin by mid-October
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Old 7th October 2020, 09:03   #48
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Originally Posted by CARDEEP View Post
The top losers chart is incorrect, as many, in the lower half, have increased sales over last month. We are dealing with abnormal circumstances (financial parlance) & since these lie at bottom of sales variance these are included in "top" (rather bottom) of sales as losers. It's better we trim the chart to negative performers only.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sachinayak View Post
Mods please note a discrepancy. Top 10 losers also have gainers in the list. Technically incorrect. We may only want to list those which have lost sales numbers month-on-month.
Corrected chart uploaded. Thanks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maverick0986 View Post
The table charts for detailed Make Model are missing, can someone from the mods team upload it? It is a very useful chart.
It's very much present in post #2. Please check.

Last edited by Aditya : 7th October 2020 at 09:07.
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Old 7th October 2020, 09:06   #49
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Default Re: September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by Aditya View Post
3. These manufacturer-reported sales numbers are factory dispatches to dealerships. They are NOT retail sales figures to end customers.
1. I think it is brilliant that Hyundai is still able to sell the Elite i20 in such high volumes, even though the new one is expected to be launched later this month.

2. Apart from the Dzire, sub-compact sedans are nowhere to be seen on this list!

Last edited by navin : 7th October 2020 at 14:50. Reason: reduced quoted post size
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Old 7th October 2020, 10:37   #50
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Default Re: September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by shabash View Post
May be this is something I have missed earlier. But what is reasoning for keeping Karoq in the C2 group. Shouldn't it be in the D1 group, together with Compass. Even from a pricing point of view Karoq does not fit into the C2 group.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KiloAlpha View Post
Just wondering - why is the Skoda Karoq listed as a C2 segment SUV? Since it is priced well north of 25 lakhs OTR, shouldn't it be a D1/D2 segment SUV?
EDIT: Same question would apply for the Volkswagen T-Roc as well. It is priced at 20 lakhs ex-showroom, but classified as a C2 segment SUV whereas (in my opinion) it ought to be in the D1 segment?
Charts updated. T-Roc and Karoq moved to the D1 segment. Thanks.

Last edited by Aditya : 7th October 2020 at 10:38.
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Old 7th October 2020, 22:05   #51
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Default Re: September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Originally Posted by volkman10 View Post

- Majority of the erstwhile Maruti Diesel models sees de-growth in Sep’20 – Dzire (-11%), Brezza (-12%), Ciaz (-11%).
Even though it is true for these models, its very surprising to see that Maruti's Ertiga(+ XL6) which is a UV/MPV segment vehicle, continues to register sales of ~12k(almost the volumes of Creta ) even after losing the diesel engine. The reason could be Maruti introducing Factory fitted S-CNG on many of their models like Ertiga, Wagon-R etc. This is probably why Maruti has been able to maintain its market share ~50% despite ditching diesel. Or is there any other reason? I am curious.

Altroz seems to show good potential with good numbers in Sept 2020, even though it lacks a strong (Turbo-)Petrol and automatic variants now.

@Mods: This is my first post and i want to quote only one line regarding "erstwhile Maruti Diesels" from the original post. Could not find info in FAQ for this, Hope i am doing right.

Last edited by Rudra Sen : 8th October 2020 at 07:44. Reason: quote fixed
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Old 8th October 2020, 06:28   #52
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Default Re: September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Very interesting sales thread. Good to see a strong bounce back in the auto market.

While everyone focused on the headline YOY growth number VS September 2019, we should remember that Sep 2019 was a terrible month - with most players reducing dealer inventories ahead of the BS6 transition. October 2019 however was a surprise - where festival sales led to dealer inventories falling faster than anticipated, and better dispatches. The fact that Sep 2020 is better than October 19 is the more relevant metric in my view - it shows the confidence manufacturers have in restocking inventory ahead of anticipated festive season sales. I do hope this confidence is borne out and retail sales follow suit.

Fantastic numbers from Tata Motors. Kia has done well too, as had the Creta. The one number that surprised me was the very low sales of the Santro - I thought it would get closer to the 10,000 level. As for Maruti, what can one say. Diss them as much as you like for making unsafe tin cans (true), but they have the pulse of the Indian customer. 148,000 units without diesels in their quiver is incredible. Hats off.
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Old 8th October 2020, 07:26   #53
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Default Re: September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

The Hyundai Motor India manufacturing plant near Chennai in Tamil Nadu, has emerged as the company’s second largest production base beating Beijing.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rus...-12378142.html
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Old 8th October 2020, 12:34   #54
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Default Re: September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Vehicle Registration Data of Tamil Nadu
Attached Thumbnails
September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-screenshot_202010081230252.jpg  

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Old 8th October 2020, 17:48   #55
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Default Re: September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

While the passenger vehicle industry had projected a YoY growth of 31.4% in terms of Wholesales (source); the registrations have grown by only 9.8% in Sep’20 v/s Sep’19.

-Maruti Suzuki reported an increase in Market Share YoY and was able to command a Market Share of ~50% in September 2020.

- Hyundai ranked second and recorded a meager Market Share increase too.

- Tata had an impressive month where both Wholesale & Retails were better. Tata Motors registered a YoY increase of stellar 64.1% and was one of the highest in Sep’20. It also increased its Market Share by 2.6% in Sep’20 v/s Sep’19

- Mahindra’s Market Share loss was one the highest in September 2020. The Indian major’s market share dropped by -1.5% in Sep’20 v/s same period last year.

- Kia is on a roll. It is already commanding a Market Share of 4.1% within 1 year of operations. Sonet has helped Kia strengthen its hold in the Indian market even further and it grew 160.4% YoY.

-Surprisingly MG Motors have recorded a degrowth in both Wholesales (-2.7%) & Retails (-9.3%)

Retail sales (FADA Report):

The numbers do not have figures from AP, MP, LD & TS as all these States/UT’s are not yet on Vahan

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Link

State -Wise sale in September:

- The Top 10 states contributed to over 73% of the overall country’s registrations!


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Last edited by volkman10 : 8th October 2020 at 17:54.
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Old 9th October 2020, 07:45   #56
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Default Re: September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

17 Octavias sold, are dealers still selling BS4 stock ? Or are these the RS245 ?
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Old 9th October 2020, 16:12   #57
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Default Re: September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

New vehicle registrations down by 10.24% in September 2020

According to the data released by the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), vehicle registrations declined by 10.24% in September 2020. Overall sales stood at 13,44,866 units, compared to 14,98,283 units in September 2019. However, the MoM data shows a growth of 11.45%.

September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-1.jpg

The passenger vehicles segment recorded positive growth on a MoM basis for the first time since unlocking began as the government pushed to normalize business conditions. Entry level passenger cars saw good demand during the month.

September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-2.jpg

Tractor sales were on the rise following a good Rabi season. The 2-wheeler, 3-wheeler and commercial vehicle sales also increased compared to the previous month.

September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-3.jpg

2-wheeler sales declined by 12.62% to 10,16,977 units compared to the same month previous year.

September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-4.jpg

3-wheeler sales were down by 58.86%. 24,060 units were sold compared to 58,485 units in September 2019.

September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-5.jpg

Passenger vehicle sales increased by 9.81%. 1,95,665 units were sold compared to 1,78,189 units in September 2019.

September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-6.jpg

Sales of commercial vehicles dropped by 33.65%. 39,600 units were sold in September 2020 compared to 59,683 units in the same month previous year.

Tractor sales increased by 80.39% to 68,564 units.

September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-7.jpg

FADA is expecting high growth during the festive months of October and November.

September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-8.jpg

September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis-9.jpg

Last edited by TusharK : 9th October 2020 at 16:15.
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Old 13th October 2020, 12:44   #58
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Default Re: September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by TusharK View Post
New vehicle registrations down by 10.24% in September 2020
This is exactly on the lines of what Vivek Kaul had quoted. Put out a brilliant article last week debunking a lot of euphoria. Quoting something which stood out for me:

Quote:
Letís take a look at bank loans on this front. This is where things get very interesting. More than three-fourth of cars and two-wheelers were bought on loans before the covid-pandemic struck. The RBI does not give a proper division of different kinds of Ďvehicle loansí. But I guess even an overall number can be used to draw some inferences. The overall vehicle loans given by banks between end of March and August have contracted a little. This means that on the whole, people have been repaying loans and net-net banks havenít given any fresh vehicle loans. While net-net between end March and end August there has been no fresh lending of vehicle loans by banks, some lending has happened in July and August. This stands at Rs 5,167 crore.

The question is if banks arenít giving out vehicle loans how are all these vehicles being bought? Of course, banks arenít the only financiers of vehicle loans, the non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) also finance the buying of vehicles.


Are NBFCs filling up this space? The NBFCs are also dependent on banks for financing. This means that NBFCs borrow from banks and then lend that money out. The overall bank lending to NBFCs has contracted by 1.3% or Rs 10,620 crore, between end March and end August.
Hence, the ability of NBFCs to continue financing vehicles, when their borrowing from banks has come down, is rather limited.


This does not mean that banks are not interested in financing any kind of vehicle. They seem to be interested in financing cars but not two-wheelers. What this means is that if ďgenuine salesĒ donít pick up, the huge inventories that the two-wheeler dealers have built up will become a problem for them. Car dealers will face the same problem though not of the same proportion.
...
Quote:
In fact, this inventory build-up might also be responsible to some extent for the increase in goods and services tax collections seen during September. The trouble is that the end consumer is yet to pay this tax.
Read More: https://vivekkaul.com/2020/10/05/aut...subscription-2
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Old 13th October 2020, 13:32   #59
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Default Re: September 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by AZT View Post
This is exactly on the lines of what Vivek Kaul had quoted. Put out a brilliant article last week debunking a lot of euphoria.
All the figures mentioned here are dealer dispatches. Some of the numbers seem inflated as well. But, it seems the Automotive industry is heavily banking on the festive season. It is a gamble and could turn out sour if the move didn't work.

On the other hand, the industry has resorted to aggressive marketing techniques and is trying the best to lure customers by creating artificial demand(waiting periods). I for one feel that there would be a downpour of discounts available in December while the cars would be degenerating at the yards all along.

Last edited by jetsetgo08 : 13th October 2020 at 13:33.
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Old 15th October 2020, 15:58   #60
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Default Pandemic setback will push back automobile sales volume by ten years :ICRA

This statement emanating from the ICRA says that the pandemic has rolled the clock back for our automobile industry by ten years. The situation is gloomy according to the report. ICRA was established in 1991, is headquartered in Gurgaon and was originally named Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency of India Limited (IICRA India). It is affiliated to Moody's Investor's Services.

This report says:-
Quote:
"It is estimated that the volumes in FY21 would be down for LCVs by 17%-20%, MHCVs by 35%-40%, PVs by 22%-25%, and 2Ws by 16%-18% along with a fall in GDP by 11%. The sales volume of the Indian automotive industry, globally the fourth largest, which is battling tough economic conditions and COVID-19-induced lockdowns, is on a free fall. However, there has been a sequential recovery month over month in segments like passenger vehicles, two-wheelers and tractors, according to the analysts of the credit rating agency ICRA. About the expected PV trend, Ashish Modani, vice president, ICRA, said, “There is an increased risk aversion in retail as well as wholesale financing, which is a deterrent. The rural market will be the key driver of volume in FY21 which will benefit entry-level cars and UVs. Buyers may opt for 2Ws or used cars to avoid public transport."

" Demand growth in the commercial vehicle industry fell by 85% in Q1 FY21, severely impacted by extended lockdowns across the country which curtailed the movement of goods. Other than this, the segment continues to face several challenges from overcapacity, global meltdown, financing issues, lower GDP growth, subdued freight availability, mining ban, infra issues, increased vehicle prices (by 10%-15%) with the implementation of BS VI, and revised axle norms, the rating agency said in a presentation."
The link to the full report:-

https://auto.economictimes.indiatime...-icra/78663272

September 2020 brought in cheers though for the automobile industry, but the overall contraction for FY 20-21 would be in the region of 21%. But even two years before the pandemic struck, headwinds had hit the industry, plagued and crippled by the low demand.

There are no very tangible and result oriented steps being taken by the policy makers despite the negative indicators, to save the world's fourth largest automobile industry. The steps being announced at present will emerge as dampeners sooner or later and are all results of very bad planning, foresight and shallow understanding at the top level.

Among the two supposed booster doses announced are:-

-They feel the new scrappage policy will make India emerge as the #1 automobile maker. It is destined to be a cropper as the GST discounts have been rejected in toto and the burden is now on manufacturers and dealers to give rebates for scrapped cars. This relates to the new scrappage policy and is news from about a week ago, though the policy is yet to be notified.

-Next, the financial stimulus package for government employees in lieu of LTC announced a few days ago is another hare-brained decision. They expect someone to forego LTC fares worth Rs 100,000 and spend three times the amount to buy white goods (>12%GST) incl a car. Unless some employee has already decided to replace a car during 2020-21 or buy a new one, is he off his head to spend that amount just to prop up the automobile industry as its saviour?

The government should become more pragmatic and think of 'out of the box' measures by announcing more dynamic steps like:-

-Offer GST rebates to swap scrapped cars.

-Offer income tax rebates to all new automobile buyers to the extent of even 10-20% of the cost.

-Very aggressively incentivise exports by automakers and offer tax holidays on their earned revenue in foreign exchange.

-The three year compulsory insurance for new automobiles vide a Supreme Court order could be given a holiday for a few years till the auto industry recovers. This will decrease the ex-showroom prices. They can either approach the Supreme Court again for such an amended order, calling for relaxation of this norm for the present or as is the trend, go for a Presidential promulagation to this effect.

As the automobile industry is a huge employment generator, revenue earner and a good contributor to the GDP these matters need to be dealt with, in all seriousness.

Last edited by anjan_c2007 : 15th October 2020 at 16:20.
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