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Old 12th May 2009, 20:05   #31
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@raj... those are seriously good numbers. I am amazed Bolero still sells in those numbers.
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Old 12th May 2009, 20:51   #32
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Those are amazing numbers when compared to safari, specially xylo!

Why did our campaigners choose the mahindra cars instead of the Indian made TATA Safari
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Old 12th May 2009, 20:52   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GTO View Post
SUVs / 4x4:
- 1237 Safaris sold. This 10+ year old SUV has got to be making Tata a lot of money (depreciated machinery and all that).
Quote:
Safari sold 774 units.
Contrasting numbers here. Which one is to be believed?
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Old 13th May 2009, 02:51   #34
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I am particularly worried about Tata motors. If this trend continues, expect Tata to lose a lot of market share this year.
I wonder if they have raised enough capital by taking an advance for the nano; they expected more people to book the car.
The vista is a big dissapointment and will never sell as much as the older indica unless tata launches a cheaper, stripped down version for the taxi market. The indica has lost it's brand image and if I were a first time car buyer, I'd rather buy a claustrophobic swift than a roomy taxi.
What manufacturers have to realize is that Indians aren't just crazy about diesel cars -- they are very conscious of what they buy and it's the image, reliability and efficiency that ultimately matter.
Launch something revolutionary and it will always sell -- the santro, when launched was an ugly car. But it was revolutionary -- it was more spacious than the zen and they marketed the car aggressively.
The launch of the vista was so bland and boring (just like the baleno). It was like Tata suddenly summoned his men and told them "I want a new car replacing the indica with christmas tree lamps at the back...and I want it at the Geneva show tomorrow"
Remember, when the original Indica was launched it's key selling points were "as roomy as an amby, as efficient as an 800." What does the vista represent? It's not a porsche or a bangled Beemer that needs to go through this evolutionary design phase; the vista should have represented something that wasn't an indica at all and then it would have made sense.
The vista will sell as a taxi and I hope Tata is open to this idea. It's business after all.
Why does the decade old safari sell well? It looks butch, has a good engine and feels luxurious and comes very cheap.
Manufacturers need to realize that they have to launch something revolutionary and the car needs to excel in a few key areas. Mediocrity doesn't help.
Complacency doesn't help either. When Fiat launched the Palio, they were selling in thousands and because of the poor A*S*S, the Palio is history now. Skoda, be prepared for this.
Skoda sales *may* pick up gradually if they are able to localize components for the fabia, which should make it more competitive.
I can only speculate what is going to happen by the end of the year -- Fiat will probably launch Linea with a bigger diesel engine and this will eat into the Octavia's market share. Not to mention that Maruti will launch the SX4 diesel which, to some extent will all make the market more competitive.
Corolla should start outselling the civic soon (hard to say) and the BMW should outsell mercedes consistenly till the end of this year.
The ford ikon diesel will never sell because the interior quality of that car is comparable to that of an 800. I drove my friend's ikon and was shocked to see the quality of the interiors, the door fabric was stitched badly and the air-con controls felt like knobs found on a table fan manufactured in China.
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Old 13th May 2009, 09:12   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thermalpaste View Post
I am particularly worried about Tata motors. If this trend continues, expect Tata to lose a lot of market share this year.
Tata has been particularly affected by the launch of Swift Diesel. In Jan 07, Tata had a compact segment share of 19.4%. That has been dropping ever since to 11% in Apr 09. The decline has been even sharper in midsize Indigo segment, where its share has dropped from 28% in 10/2008 to 15%. Launch of better diesel and the collapse of sales to transport operators (not only for Tata but for others) are responsible for this.
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Old 13th May 2009, 09:24   #36
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@ thermalpaste: you have mentioned that the vista does not sell. yes, when compared to the swift, it sells in lesser numbers but i wont call it a flop. its a good car & i can see quite a number of them on the road. the decade old safari which you are saying sells well has sold only 1000 units this month. civic has been outselling the corolla because i feel civic looks & feels like an upmarket car, unlike the sedan. and even i thought the ikon D would never sell, but i am suprosed to see so many of them on mumbai roads, especially with yellow number plates.
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Old 13th May 2009, 09:41   #37
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@Vasudeva & GTO: Thanks for steamlining this thread. I have begun to expect the monthly excel spreadsheet more keenly than my pay cheque!

Some observations I had:

1. April is a low month in the year, but it was better than April 08 and Year to date growth of Passenger Vehicles is at about 5%.

2. It seems to me the customers are downshifting. That's because, of the 5% growth, the biggest growth came from Compact, followed by Mid-size (4001 - 4500 mm) then followed by Executive (4501 - 4700). So some of the Midsize borderline potential customers may be shifting to Compact and Executive to Mid size.

Premium (4701 - 5000) is in a separate league and has shown a 77% growth.

3. Maruti continues to lead heavily in both the compact (11%) and the mid-size segment (82%); growing ahead of the segment, despite its size. Looks like Swft D'zire is going to be a much bigger winner than expected! It will be interesting to see if the launch of Ritz will expand the compact segment or Ritz will eat from the existing pie.

4. Seems to me that New New Honda City is not exactly setting sales on fire at 11% growth - maybe higher price point coupled with downturn has been a double whammy. Further Linea seems to be the "joker in the pack" spoiling existing equations.

5. Hyundai needs to do something in the mid-size segment with a 30% decline. Verna is getting older faster!!! My guess is it's losing customers to Linea (unlike the Fiesta)

6. The Executive segment has declined by 10% (Linea gets counted here). Every brand except Toyota has suffered a decline. Maybe the downturn has left fewer customers here and many have downgraded to the Mid size. Civic has lost 60% in sales, Skoda about 55%. Must be hurting Skoda badly because this segment has its biggest brands - maybe the new Laura will fire the charts. But the customer here is more discerning and increasing awareness of Skoda's 3rd grade (or worse) A*S*S may be hurting

7. In the Premium segment I am surprised to see the Accord / CRV take a 36% share. Superb seems to have sold about 450 units so far, my guess is this may have peaked.

Among the car makers, I would say Honda has been the most successful across segments, further the launch of Jazz will be its test in the Compact segment!

Interesting days ahead.

Cheers,
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Old 13th May 2009, 09:46   #38
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Bolero has and will always sell in good numbers.

Go to western UP (pulsar56, please share statewise data) or uttarakhand. That is Bolero country. In chakrata over two days, I saw only one local Sumo, and hundreds of Bolero campers/PikUp trucks.
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Old 13th May 2009, 10:23   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vasudeva View Post
Dear Pradster: refer post 24: you could invite a lawsuit from VW to be soon followed by a extended jail term.

What do I say, oops?
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Old 13th May 2009, 12:45   #40
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Love to see Skoda sale (TEAM BHP effect)

Hate to see Linea sale (people are saying after all its a fiat)

well, what can you say to honda, just like Khetan fans; Honda should market the cars by saying: Honda, sirf naam hi kafi he!!!
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Old 13th May 2009, 12:58   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vasudeva View Post
Hyundai sold 72144 cars in Western Europe during Jan-Mar 09, up 14.4% from Jan-Mar 2008. This is in a market that declined 16.4% to 3.23 million.
In the United States for April 2009, while everyone's sales declined, Hyundai recorded the "least" decline (IIRC 14.xx% versus 35% for a Toyota).

Quote:
Originally Posted by sijil.karim View Post
Toyota UV sales shows a massive dip in April 09 v/s April 08 , 2835 v/s 4531, Is it the Xylo effect ???
Definitely the Xylo effect.

Quote:
Originally Posted by narayan View Post
The entire C+ segment seems to have shrunk ( except for maybe the Altis ) which has grown BUT THEN possibly from a smaller base ( the earlier Corolla anyway was taking a big hit after the CIVIC launch )
With belts tightening, the customer would logically look at a 9 lakh car instead of one that costs 13. To many, a 9 lakh rupee Honda City is 95% of the Civic and 70% the price.

Quote:
so is it fair to say that SKODA has not lost market share in this segment per se because the entire segment shrunk ?
The Civic + Corolla + Octavia + Laura sold a total of 2538 cars in April 2008, compared to 1,682 in the same month of 2009. Even if you consider only these three cars, Skoda's market share dipped from 38% to 32%. Get the Fabia into the picture, and their total sales have declined from 1,802 cars (April 2008) to 1,048 (April 2009)....a massive 42% loss. The only other brands to record such a huge loss of total YOY sales are HM (-49.8) and ICML Rhino (59.6%).

Quote:
Originally Posted by avishar View Post
And anybody has Audi figures?An any idea how are niche players like Volvo,Porsche,Rolls-Royce,Lamborghini and Bentley are doing?
Unfortunately, I think the numbers are too small (or embarassing) for these manufacturers to post. Vasudeva, is that correct?

Quote:
Originally Posted by extreme_torque View Post
@raj... those are seriously good numbers. I am amazed Bolero still sells in those numbers.
The Bolero is well-priced (DI), rugged and has a strong following. It is built to withstand rural abuse.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thermalpaste View Post
the vista should have represented something that wasn't an indica at all and then it would have made sense.
Firstly, great post Thermalpaste. I agree with you on the Vista. It is supposed to target a segment entirely different from the old Indica. Thus, its similar looks & brand name haven't helped the cause. Related Thread
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Old 13th May 2009, 15:10   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GTO View Post

SUVs / 4x4:

- Maruti moved 905 Gypsies in April! Compare that to only 31 sold in April 2008. Unbelievable! Army orders? Team-BHP 4x4 epidemic spreading?
Gypsy sold that much due to one time orders from NCC and BSF.

Pasting the relevant information from an analyst report:

MSIL reported solid domestic sales growth over the month, driven by the A2
segment (+c9% Y/Y). The company gained market share vis--vis rival Hyundai (domestic sales +3.5% Y/Y).

Within A2, all models continue to grow at a healthy pace, except for the Zen Estilo, where momentum continues to flag. The product mix continues to skew toward higher realisation products the Alto is now ~44% of A2 sales. The A-Star sold 3500 units this month vs. ~3000 units / month in 4Q, which again augurs well for product mix shift.

MUV sales spiked because of a one-time order from the NCC and BSF. A3
segment benefited from better momentum for the SX4 which has benefited
from sales initiatives targeting corporates. SX4 demand is expected to remain healthy over the next 2 months. The Swift's skew toward diesel continues around 8000 units sold totally, of which diesel is ~60%.

Exports showed healthy growth on Y/Y basis. We note the monthly run rate will have to increase to meet our forecast of c110,000 units. The new model Ritz will be launched this month.
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Old 13th May 2009, 15:59   #43
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Thanks for the clarification, rrsteer. Which analyst report was this? Any web links?
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Old 13th May 2009, 16:00   #44
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Hi I was talking to a CEO of one of the Automotive Dealership who has muliple stores/showrooms across south India. He mentioned some interesting aspects

1. Major Consumers (e.g. in BLR) are divided into 3 classes viz. Government, Armed forces & Public sector employees, IT+ITES+Technology workers, Real Estate + Retail people.
2. He mentioned that all the second and third classes are facing un-certainity and are not buying the cars.
3. Government, ARMed forces adn Public sector employees are buying the cars but only in the Small Car segment asn <7Lacs category.

i do not know the exact figures, but i like the above reasoning.
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Old 13th May 2009, 16:05   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GTO View Post
Thanks for the clarification, rrsteer. Which analyst report was this? Any web links?
I took it from a Citibank research report on MSIL
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