[Samurai]

Turns out it was USA who derailed Japan and send them into recession 30 years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1fJGruPZXo

[SmartCat]

Data on inward remittances:



Looks like mostly folks from southern states (& Maharashtra) emigrate to other countries.

Data on trade with Gulf countries:

Now total inward remittance = $87.6 billion
But the infographic also shows where the inflows are coming from (Saudi/Qatar/USA etc)

Total inward remittance from gulf countries = 53.6% = $47 billion
India's exports to Gulf countries = $44 billion

Total foreign exchange inflows from Gulf countries = $91 billion

Oil & Natural gas imports from Gulf countries = $48 billion + $21 billion = $69 billion
Other imports: $28 billion

Total foreign exchange outflows to Gulf countries = $97 billion

Looks like we have a well-balanced trade with the Gulf countries. Our oil import dependency on Gulf countries does not look that bad if we look at inflows/outflows.

[JediKnight]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Looks like we have a well-balanced trade with the Gulf countries.

I guess that is why government recently inked the local currency settlement accord with UAE to remove un-necessary dependency on US dollar. I believe that also may be the reason government is pushing UPI usage in the gulf countries.

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by Samurai

China’s real GDP is less than half of what the Chinese government claims it to be...

Another similar story, but about Chinese population. Apparently, China miscounted their population by 10%.

This one is from ABC News Australia.

https://youtu.be/meJItedDm2Y

[PGA]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Looks like mostly folks from southern states (& Maharashtra) emigrate to other countries.

I think if we looked at a period data the inferences will be different. Earlier the impact of inward remittances was very visible in Punjab. NRIs who had migrated would buy land and build assets in the villages and towns, either providing for near and dear ones here or to show off for having gained higher economic status. Things have changed substantially in the last decade or so. Nowadays rarely one comes across an NRI investing here. Majority are selling their assets here and taking the money abroad. There are two reasons for that I assume, one is, it is the second generation who have taken over the household affairs abroad and they have much lesser affinity and bonding with their native land. Secondly, earlier if one of the relatives made it well abroad, he would leave his claim on his assets back home for his other relatives, so that they too could move up the economic chain. Nowadays, nuclear household and very high property value, those bondings have weakend considerably.

[whitewing]

Originally Posted by Samurai

Another similar story, but about Chinese population. Apparently, China miscounted their population by 10%.

This one is from ABC News Australia.

While the Chinese miscounted and seem to be in a spot of bother, in India we refuse to count and are seemingly doing well (for now atleast) !
Hope policy makers in Indian pay heed to gathering data, rather than relying on extrapolated data.

[SmartCat]

Pakistan's mess is hilarious.

CPEC power plants: Sinosure demands govt make payments
https://www.brecorder.com/news/40263...-make-payments

To begin with, all power plants built under CPEC use imported fuel -> either high quality coal or natural gas.

To top this, Pak has agreed to something called "capacity payments". Here, Pakistan has to make compulsory payments based on capacity of the power plant (say 1000 MW), not based on power generated. That is, even if the power plant capacity utilization is only 50% or power plant is completely shutdown, Pak has to make full payments

Not happy with this level of idiocy, they have gone a step ahead and agreed to pay power producers in US Dollars, not PKR.

IPPs to get Rs1.3tr in capacity charges
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2432891...pacity-charges

China is really like the East India Company!

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

To top this, Pak has agreed to something called "capacity payments". Here, Pakistan has to make compulsory payments based on capacity of the power plant (say 1000 MW), not based on power generated. That is, even if the power plant capacity utilization is only 50% or power plant is completely shutdown, Pak has to make full payments

This is an old method practiced by Kings, since tracking income was practically impossible.

The history of my region (Tulunadu) has records from 18th century when this kind of practice was used for tax collection, by Tipu Sultan's tax collectors. The tax was calculated based on area of land owned, and not based on yield. This is because it was impossible to keep track of yield. If there was a crop loss due to lack of rain or pests, the tax could easily exceed the actual harvest. Not paying tax fully meant imprisonment. So landowners would abandon the farm and run away. When the tax collectors found such farms, they would forcibly gift that farm to the immediate neighbor and expect him to pay the tax proportional to his new landholding, in the very next year. Most likely the neighbor too would abscond next year. This cascading effect would result in entire farming districts abandoned because of tax burden.

[ike]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Pakistan's mess is hilarious.

To top this, Pak has agreed to something called "capacity payments". Here, Pakistan has to make compulsory payments based on capacity of the power plant (say 1000 MW), not based on power generated. That is, even if the power plant capacity utilization is only 50% or power plant is completely shutdown, Pak has to make full payments

Not happy with this level of idiocy, they have gone a step ahead and agreed to pay power producers in US Dollars, not PKR.

Both these practices are not uncommon in the Gas & power industry. Payments in currencies other than USD are an exception (like us paying INR for Russian oil). Given the situation in Pakistan and the freefall that PKR has been in since the last few months, no counterparty would want any payments in that currency.

[AltoLXI]

Originally Posted by Samurai

The tax was calculated based on area of land owned, and not based on yield. This is because it was impossible to keep track of yield.

Egyptian method of using Nilometer made sense then.

The annual flood was of great importance to Egyptian civilization. A moderate inundation was a vital part of the agricultural cycle; however, a lighter inundation than normal would cause famine, and too much flood water would be equally disastrous, washing away much of the infrastructure built on the flood plain. Records from AD 622–999 indicate that, on average, 28% of the years saw an inundation that fell short of expectations.

The ability to predict the volume of the coming inundation was part of the mystique of the Ancient Egyptian priesthood. The same skill also played a political and administrative role, since the quality of the year's flood was used to determine the levels of tax to be paid. This is where the nilometer came into play, with priests monitoring the day-to-day level of the river and announcing the awaited arrival of the summer flood.

[dust-n-bones]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Pakistan's mess is hilarious.

CPEC power plants: Sinosure demands govt make payments
https://www.brecorder.com/news/40263...-make-payments

To begin with, all power plants built under CPEC use imported fuel -> either high quality coal or natural gas.

To top this, Pak has agreed to something called "capacity payments". Here, Pakistan has to make compulsory payments based on capacity of the power plant (say 1000 MW), not based on power generated. That is, even if the power plant capacity utilization is only 50% or power plant is completely shutdown, Pak has to make full payments

Not happy with this level of idiocy, they have gone a step ahead and agreed to pay power producers in US Dollars, not PKR.

IPPs to get Rs1.3tr in capacity charges
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2432891...pacity-charges

China is really like the East India Company!

Attachment 2505004

Sir, just to remind you, we are their senior cousins, been there, done all of it 30 years ago. Enron/Dabhol.
https://energy.prayaspune.org/images...epw_002a01.pdf

Every one of the hilarious pieces is a leaf out of the Dabhol fiasco. Like our cousins across the border suspended common sense for the Chinese largesse, each one of our Maharashtra politicians across parties back then was in thrall of a certain Rebecca Mark.

To be fair though, why would a foreign supplier setup an expensive piece of infra into your country unless, a) you guarantee a minimum return (for Enron it was 24 mindbending %), b) that return is denominated in the currency I spend and repatriate in - remember, PKR is depreciating some 25% pa.

What both of us went horribly wrong with however was not performing an honest financial closure before giving the green light. Of course, the lure of the greenback proved stronger in each case.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by dust-n-bones

then was in thrall of a certain Rebecca Mark.

Aah yes, Rebecca Mark!

you guarantee a minimum return (for Enron it was 24 mindbending %),

Xi Jinping is more considerate towards its "deeper than the deepest ocean and taller than the tallest mountain" ally Pakistan. Guaranteed returns is 17% in USD. Actually, this returns is guaranteed to anybody who invests in Pakistani power sector - but since no other country will invest in Pakistan, it is very likely that the policy was made for Chinese investors.

[dragracer567]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Actually, this returns is guaranteed to anybody who invests in Pakistani power sector - but since no other country will invest in Pakistan, it is very likely that the policy was made for Chinese investors.

So, the investors choose to take the risk but the returns are guaranteed by the Pakistani taxpayer. Seems familiar, I recall from one of Shashi Tharoor's speeches that the British constructed railways in India at inflated guaranteed returns for the investors as well (i.e at the risk of the British-Indian taxpayer). Wonder if there are any other modern-day precedences for this!

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by dragracer567

So, the investors choose to take the risk but the returns are guaranteed by the Pakistani taxpayer.

Since nobody pays tax in Pakistan, they just have to "print the money". That's why PKR went to Rs.300 from Rs. 150. But the recent IMF deal requires that Pakistan has to squeeze out these charges from customers. That's why electricity bills there now have random charges under heads like -

- Income Tax
- Further Tax
- Extra Tax



To understand the scale of Pakistan's power problems, PKR 1.3 trillion capacity payments means $4.3 billion payout per year (double check please, I might have made a mistake in these trillion/billion calculations)

The obvious choice here would be to default on the payments (like Sri Lanka did), but Pakistan is fully dependent on China for their defence/security. It is rumoured that China wants permission to use Gwadar port as a naval base, in return for cancelling their debts. This is what China expected from Sri Lanka too - access to Hambanbota port as a naval base

AidData Report Warns of a Chinese Naval Base in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port
https://thediplomat.com/2023/08/aidd...mbantota-port/

[AltoLXI]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

It is rumoured that China wants permission to use Gwadar port as a naval base, in return for cancelling their debts. This is what China expected from Sri Lanka too - access to Hambanbota port as a naval base

They call it "String of Pearls".

In the theory, a "pearl" refers to a current or potential Chinese overseas military base, mega infrastructure project, economic corridor, port or other city or locale of Chinese geostrategic advantage in the region. These "pearls" are designated by U.S. and Indian strategists. The eponymous "string" of these pearls refers to the possibility of the Chinese Navy connecting these pearls via maritime routes.

Chinese possessions in the Indian Ocean consist primarily of commercial ports owned and operated by Chinese firms, as well as resupply stations operating in agreement with the Chinese central government. The two largest projects consist of a Chinese-financed commercial shipping center in Hambantota, Sri Lanka, and a Chinese-controlled deep-water port near the mouth of the Persian Gulf in Gwadar, Pakistan, which is also the crux of China's massive $62 billion China–Pakistan Economic Corridor project.