[mvadg]

To all the gurus here: How has the border issue with China affected India's economy? Everything from manufacturing to consumer goods rely on imports from China. I understand that India has not formally taken any serious action against China, but imports from China have fallen by a few billion dollars and may be even exports to China face resistance. How will it affect our economy? And as consumers? In the short term and in long-term?

[PGA]

Travel Payout, Festival Advance For Government Employees till March

https://www.ndtv.com/business/ltc-ca...ending-2308820

Is this the idea whose time has come? Do they need it, one of the most secure jobs the world has to offer. Just makes me wonder what the experts will come up next.

If they had extra money maybe a little reduction of tax on fuel would have helped public at large greater.

[V.Narayan]

GST monthly collection crosses Rs 1.00 lakh crore for the first time in 8 months. October collection = Rs 1.05 lakh crores.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/78979142.cms

The revenue was 10% higher than the Rs 95,379 crores in the same month last year. Rs 1.00 lakh-crore is considered the minimum collection benchmark to be considered at the lower end of the healthy economy range. Rs 1.10 lakh collection would be considered in peak health. Regardless of our political colour this is an encouraging sign. I wouldn't lean on the side of the jingoistic trolls in social media who are going ga-ga but if we sustain this for 4 months then we have a genuine trend line and after a point economic activity begets more economic activity.

[Samurai]

GST only accounts for economic activity in the organized sector. How does one measure economic activity in unorganized sector?

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by Samurai

GST only accounts for economic activity in the organized sector. How does one measure economic activity in unorganized sector?

Some Indirect indicators, I can think of:
Fuel sales
Two- wheeler sales; Tractor sales as a proxy for Agriculture growth.
Toll collections.
Banking transactions.
Number of eWay Bills - An eWayBill is required for any goods movement by a GST registered supplier. So this is a very good indicator for all the goods movement happening in the country.

Also the fact is, there is a benefit of getting a GST id and getting into the organized sector. No large company buys from you if you don't have a GSTIN. The distinction between formal and informal sector has narrowed quite a bit.

[vrprabhu]

Good question -

Originally Posted by Samurai

GST only accounts for economic activity in the organized sector. How does one measure economic activity in unorganized sector?

And, in my opinion, not quite appropriate to jump to this conclusion -

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

Also the fact is, there is a benefit of getting a GST id and getting into the organized sector. No large company buys from you if you don't have a GSTIN. The distinction between formal and informal sector has narrowed quite a bit.

I guess what Samurai is asking about the position plethora of small businessmen, service providers (a tyre puncture repair shop or your friendly neighbourhood garage with three or four employees etc.). Right?

The rising GST collections were tom-tommed even when the economy was (actually) not doing great.

September month was the originally envisaged for completing all GST related activities pertaining to 2018-19. Plus, there could be bunching of payments by small payers resuming their activities?

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by vrprabhu

I guess what Samurai is asking about the position plethora of small businessmen, service providers (a tyre puncture repair shop or your friendly neighbourhood garage with three or four employees etc.). Right?

Yes, we know that the pandemic hit the unorganized sector lot harder than organized sector. How does one measure if unorganized sector is recovering?

GST via transactions (fuel sales, tolls, etc) doesn't differentiate between organized and unorganized sector. Not sure how we can use it for measurement.

[SmartCat]

In India, unorganized sector metrics are measured using household survey or a small business survey.

Other than Govt's National Sample Survey Office, there are private companies in this space too. CMIE is the largest/most prominent private company in the Indian economy data collection space.

https://www.cmie.com/

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by Samurai

Yes, we know that the pandemic hit the unorganized sector lot harder than organized sector. How does one measure if unorganized sector is recovering?

GST via transactions (fuel sales, tolls, etc) doesn't differentiate between organized and unorganized sector. Not sure how we can use it for measurement.

That's true. We can't accurately measure unorganized sector. That's why I said these are indicators as a proxy to something else. Example, suppose if fuel sales are growing 10% (example only) and formal "GST" economy is growing 6%, then it indicates unorganized economy is also growing albeit at slower rate. Banking transactions also can point to such trends, but not accurate measures.

[srini1785]

Originally Posted by Samurai

..How does one measure if unorganized sector is recovering?

Originally Posted by SmartCat

In India, unorganized sector metrics are measured using household survey or a small business survey

Almost all transactions in Unorganized sectors are cash deals. So its virtually impossible to measure it through surveys since households and businesses would under report earnings.

[Gsynch]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

GST monthly collection crosses Rs 1.00 lakh crore for the first time in 8 months. October collection = Rs 1.05 lakh crores.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/78979142.cms

The revenue was 10% higher than the Rs 95,379 crores in the same month last year. Rs 1.00 lakh-crore is considered the minimum collection benchmark to be considered at the lower end of the healthy economy range. Rs 1.10 lakh collection would be considered in peak health. Regardless of our political colour this is an encouraging sign. I wouldn't lean on the side of the jingoistic trolls in social media who are going ga-ga but if we sustain this for 4 months then we have a genuine trend line and after a point economic activity begets more economic activity.

+ Two quick points

Sept 20 GST collections were higher than Sept 19 collections

Last year, Diwali was in Oct and this year it's in Nov so hopefully, Diwali effect on the economy is going to be seen in Nov and if that happens, it will be third month on the trot with better GST collection than last year's.

[V.Narayan]

Manufacturing PMI reaches 58.9 for October 2020. While this is the highest since 2010 it is so because the denominator is so low. Manufacturing PMI is a month over last month index of manufacturing growth. So a score of 50 means no growth. 58.9 means (I think) 8.9% over the previous month. So while encouraging it is merely so because we are crawling out of a hole. Still a sign. It is as survey of 400 manufacturing companies representing a cross section of industries and sizes.

Question still remains, as Samurai pointed, what about the informal sector? While normally the organized and the cash sectors move in tandem give or take a little this year due to the massive disruption caused by the lockdown it is hard to say if the two are indeed still in tandem. And within the cash sector we have agriculture on one side which might be doing okay and manufacturing, processing and trading which may not be.

Newslink:
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com...ign=Newsletter

GST collection of the last 6 months compared to same month last year.

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by Samurai

There is a belief among general public that democracy and capitalism go hand in hand. That they are natural partners. But economists on both side disagree with that.

I'll give an argument from right and the left. Both agree one is bad for the other.

Here is a capitalistic economist arguing in a Forbes article that democracy is bad for capitalism.

Here is a professor of social and economic policy arguing in Foreign Policy article saying capitalism is bad for democracy.

I am bumping this old post for a reason.

Cenk Uygur, the founder of TYT youtube channel and Justice Democrats today mentioned Democratic Capitalism. I looked up and was surprised why I had not heard of it all this time.

Democratic capitalism, also referred to as market democracy, is a political and economic system that combines capitalism and a strong welfare state curbing the excesses of individual freedom. It integrates resource allocation by marginal productivity (synonymous with free-market capitalism), with policies of resource allocation by social entitlement. The policies which characterise the system are enacted by democratic governments.

It makes perfect sense to me. It is time we retire the much abused, such maligned term socialism. It is a meaningless word these days.

So for all the guys who kept thinking I am a socialist, here is the correct term. I am a democratic capitalist. And India has democratic capitalism, although nowhere as good as many European countries, but similar to USA.

If you are looking for non-democratic capitalism, that's what China has.

[alpha1]

Originally Posted by Samurai

I am bumping this old post for a reason.

"Democratic capitalism, also referred to as market democracy, is a political and economic system that combines capitalism and a strong welfare state curbing the excesses of individual freedom. It integrates resource allocation by marginal productivity (synonymous with free-market capitalism), with policies of resource allocation by social entitlement. The policies which characterise the system are enacted by democratic governments."

It makes perfect sense to me. It is time we retire the much abused, such maligned term socialism. It is a meaningless word these days.

So for all the guys who kept thinking I am a socialist, here is the correct term. I am a democratic capitalist. And India has democratic capitalism, although nowhere as good as many European countries, but similar to USA.

If you are looking for non-democratic capitalism, that's what China has.

Seems more like a social movement, in fact this has been the governing ethos of social/spiritual/religious practices in most places on earth before the industrialization.
The question is how will it be enforced today without corrupting those responsible for enforcing it?

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by alpha1

The question is how will it be enforced today without corrupting those responsible for enforcing it?

Education of the masses - I mean real education and not just bare minimum literacy plus grooming of the young from childhood on civic responsibilities to create the right atmosphere for change is needed plus add in 3 generations of gradual improvement and we can get there. A long road but the countries like Sweden, Norway, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland etc have show the way. It won't get done in our lifetimes but we should tread down that path nevertheless.

Originally Posted by Samurai

It makes perfect sense to me. It is time we retire the much abused, such maligned term socialism. It is a meaningless word these days.

So for all the guys who kept thinking I am a socialist, here is the correct term. I am a democratic capitalist. And India has democratic capitalism, although nowhere as good as many European countries, but similar to USA.

If you are looking for non-democratic capitalism, that's what China has.

Excellent point Samurai San. I like this phrase 'democratic capitalism'. It is what several European countries have achieved in practice. If the US went down this path several countries would lean into the wind.