[pratyush6]

Originally Posted by locusjag

Analytics in conjunction with Kelley School of Business, Univ of Illinois. The comments were a revelation - while their certification costs 3.5 lacs, it seems the quality of the course isn't worth it. People were saying how they were able to learn better on their .

Analytics is such a broad and abused word that most people throw it off very loosely. If you haven't done any sort of Analytics, then, I suppose a course is a good starting off point. However, in the real world, the challenges are very different. I have seen a couple of course materials and they are so far off the real things we deal with.
Also, remember Analytics Insights are very different to Stat Modeling and Machine Learning.
The price tag of 3.5 lacs is actually low, one of my friends did a course from ISB and it set him back by over 12 lacs(just the course fees) if I am not wrong. In India, it does give you a tag, but the experts don't really think of it as something amazing. Let me reiterate again, if you are beginning in this area though, its a good thing to have.

[honeybee]

I personally believe IT is by and large a very non-core to the human life even today.

If you were a doctor or an engineer or a CA or a lawyer or a farmer or some such craftsman, people somewhere would still need your services. With IT, the field is so immature, it's changing at an extremely rapid pace, and it will never be an integral part of the human life.

Even if the world were dotted with the IOT devices, it's unlikely your neighbour will pay you to fix his washing machine issue that it doesn't send an SMS once it's done. He will most likely call the company and get it replaced.

[androdev]

Originally Posted by honeybee

I personally believe IT is by and large a very non-core to the human life even today.

IT is too broad an area to say it is non core. It ranges from critical life saving products to frivolous rubbish. The worry is not about IT industry prospects which are very bright and will only get better with time. It is the change of landscape of IT jobs that is the cause of concern. The days of low hanging fruits are over and hence the productivity/profitability, etc. has become the focus. During the good times, lot of people were accommodated in non-contributing roles and this was helped further by many companies flocking to India to setup their shops.

Without talking about specific individual cases, the truth is there isn't much space at the top of the pyramid. There is also the threat of automation/AI, etc. to make few bottom of the pyramid jobs redundant. I feel such changes have already taken place in other industries and other markets so it is not exactly an unfamiliar territory.

While it may work if you make few incremental changes like re-skilling, certification programmes, etc. but I am very skeptical. At least these things don't work in "top tier" job market where you will be competing with "perfect CVs" compared to "embellished CVs".

This crisis might be a blessing in disguise for many middle aged folks to rediscover their mojo As such many are doing dead-end jobs.

[msdivy]

Originally Posted by Traveler

Many reasons some totally stupid. Age factor, resistance to change, salary level, instability due to personal esteem, seen as less dynamic, risk averse nature..... The list goes on. Bottom line is they don't feel comfortable offering or trusting a senior person on a junior level thinking he will not be a good fit due to the above reasons.

India atleast is not mature enough to accept that anyone can do any job and that ups and downs are a part and parcel of life.

Abroad you may be a VP for many years but when things go south you will not hesitate to drive a cab to tide over difficult times.

Here it's opposite, you will subconsciously always want a similar level job and the worst part is that the people here also expect the same. So even if you were to take a low level job for some time it will stick to you like a leech for the rest of your career. People will take it negatively rather than appreciating that you did what you did to survive.

Just my two cents.

These are mostly bias created by the employees themselves and since the company is made of employees, the bias percolates there. The moment people free themselves of these biases, there is a different world out there.

Secondly, every employee must answer what they offer to the company compared to a random Joe. If there is no concrete answer, I feel the employee must work towards building a credible answer to that question.

BTW, any relation to this thread? https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shift...graduates.html (IT Industry and Employability of Technical Graduates)

[honeybee]

Originally Posted by androdev

Without talking about specific individual cases, the truth is there isn't much space at the top of the pyramid. There is also the threat of automation/AI, etc. to make few bottom of the pyramid jobs redundant. I feel such changes have already taken place in other industries and other markets so it is not exactly an unfamiliar territory.

There never is enough space at the top, even when one is alone. Also the fall from the top is usually worse.

But that's true of every sector.

When I look at the other trades, I need an electrician, I need a plumber, I need a cobbler, I need a milkman, I need a doctor, I need a farmer.

I don't need an IT developer.

All the other trades aim to satisfy basic necessities which have integrated into our lives and cannot be easily separated.

IT, unfortunately, is still virtual, hazy, not yet integrated. From the needs perspective, it appears very superficial.

[locusjag]

Originally Posted by honeybee

When I look at the other trades, I need an electrician, I need a plumber, I need a cobbler, I need a milkman, I need a doctor, I need a farmer.

I don't need an IT developer.

All the other trades aim to satisfy basic necessities which have integrated into our lives and cannot be easily separated.

IT, unfortunately, is still virtual, hazy, not yet integrated. From the needs perspective, it appears very superficial.

This looks set to change. In the book 'Surviving AI' by Calum Chace, he makes a compelling argument that in the future when Artificial Narrow intelligence (ANI) keeps developing, until the point when Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) arrives, there will only be two classes of people - The Gods and The Useless.

The Gods will be the owners of companies that churn out AI tech or the owners of companies that find a way to survive despite the prevailing AI. The Gods will also include all the AI programmers and scientists.

The Useless class will be everyone else who'd inevitably be out of work, living on a state dole payout (universal basic income) that is sourced from a robo-tax on companies that utilize AI.

Once AGI arrives finally - mankind may well cease to exist...but that's a story for another day.

Back to the storyline though - why would there be a Useless class of people in the world? Think about it - the onward relentless march of AI is consuming all kinds of jobs and careers. AI is even consuming the jobs of last resort in developed economies as we speak, namely retail clerk positions, retail inventory jobs and driving jobs. As Martin Ford argues in his book 'Lights in the Tunnel', without enough jobs to employ people, the global economy will never be as prosperous again. Most of us will just be a bunch of useless people in the future, living off of state payouts.

So let's reassess things again - it IT going to remain peripheral in our lives after all?

[srini1785]

Originally Posted by locusjag

This looks set to change. In the book 'Surviving AI' by Calum Chace, he makes a compelling argument that in the future when Artificial Narrow intelligence (ANI) keeps developing, until the point when Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) arrives, there will only be two classes of people - The Gods and The Useless.

The Gods will be the owners of companies that churn out AI tech or the owners of companies that find a way to survive despite the prevailing AI. The Gods will also include all the AI programmers and scientists.

The Useless class will be everyone else who'd inevitably be out of work, living on a state dole payout (universal basic income) that is sourced from a robo-tax on companies that utilize AI.

Once AGI arrives finally - mankind may well cease to exist...but that's a story for another day.

Back to the storyline though - why would there be a Useless class of people in the world? Think about it - the onward relentless march of AI is consuming all kinds of jobs and careers. AI is even consuming the jobs of last resort in developed economies as we speak, namely retail clerk positions, retail inventory jobs and driving jobs. As Martin Ford argues in his book 'Lights in the Tunnel', without enough jobs to employ people, the global economy will never be as prosperous again. Most of us will just be a bunch of useless people in the future, living off of state payouts.

So let's reassess things again - it IT going to remain peripheral in our lives after all?

Looks like a story line of the Blade runner ( 1982 ) movie. But for all this doomsday (my opinion) predictions of academics who remain glued to their computer screens, there is also a world which can work very well without IT.

In india, IT has uplifted a entire class of people within a period of say 25 years ( beginning with early 90's ). Its natural that its now going through a correction.

Just my 2paisa.

[Red Liner]

How old are all you guys here?

None of these doomsday stuff will become a reality in India ever so soon. Our population demography will just not allow this so called AI to totally replace people everywhere. Local and central governments will act to ensure that people are continued to be employed or else that government is doomed. India is huge man, stop walking around the coop in your cities.

I was backpacking in hubli dharwad rural 2 years back and happened to step into a cool bar. The guy sitting at the counter looked like a normal enough chap, but i was blown when he asked me in queens english what in bloody monkeys behinds was i doing here? After pleasantaries, he mentioned that he used to be a programmer in bangalore, got tired of all the rat crap, got out back to his little home town and opened an all purpose store which he says keeps him sane, calm and happy.

In 30 years or so you will be dead anyway. So quit worrying and start exploring opportunities, they just might be in plain eyesight.

[locusjag]

Originally Posted by srini1785

Looks like a story line of the Blade runner ( 1982 ) movie. But for all this doomsday (my opinion) predictions of academics who remain glued to their computer screens, there is also a world which can work very well without IT.

In india, IT has uplifted a entire class of people within a period of say 25 years ( beginning with early 90's ). Its natural that its now going through a correction.

Just my 2paisa.

No, I completely understand where you're coming from. But I beg to differ on whether these are empty academic predictions. We need to ask ourselves -

* Is Moore's law real? What is it?
* How do exponential increments work? How much computing power is needed for AGI?
* Is our world slowly moving toward digitization of formerly manual processes?
* Are there employee-less retail shops in the world today? Are there driverless vehicles (in some stage or form of maturity)? How many people are employed in these careers in different countries?

I was able to find answers to these questions. Hence my belief in the truth, which sounds stranger than fiction to the uninitiated. Fair enough.

And here's what is really difficult to digest, but is logically borne out - if even 50% of people are left unemployed due to job losses in various industries, who would have enough disposable income to pay electricians, plumbers and cobblers? How many more of these supposedly invincible professions will crumble in a domino effect, because of a lack of disposable income?

Edit: I apologize for going OT. I only wanted to present my POV that IT isn't irrelevant as it is being made out to be, especially in the light of what's coming our way. I'll stop now and let us return our focus to the plight of IT professionals in their 40s.

[amitk26]

Originally Posted by honeybee

There never is enough space at the top, even when one is alone. Also the fall from the top is usually worse.

But that's true of every sector.

When I look at the other trades, I need an electrician, I need a plumber, I need a cobbler, I need a milkman, I need a doctor, I need a farmer.

I don't need an IT developer.

All the other trades aim to satisfy basic necessities which have integrated into our lives and cannot be easily separated.

IT, unfortunately, is still virtual, hazy, not yet integrated. From the needs perspective, it appears very superficial.

I think answer is not so simple perhaps your definition of IT is bit hazy.
Let me ask few simple questions and if answer is yes to anyone of them below the my friend you do need IT

If you are an engineer in any core branch like Civil or Mechanical or an architect when was the last time you used a drafter and pencil to create a design ? Can engineers today create a drawing without CAD ?


Do you need banking and prefer T+3 days settlement as it used to happen till early 2000s or prefer NEFT and IMPS ?

Do you prefer to stand in queue for withdrawing cash using that withdrawal slip or prefer ATM ?

I remember for filing my first IT return in Bombay in 97 ( Now Mumbai) I stood in a queue which stretched from Churni Road to Marine lines and I wasted one full day as I did not avail service of any agent. Do you prefer that or online return filing and e-verification ?

Do you prefer FastTag or waiting in a queue on toll booth ?

Do you prefer Google Maps or asking for directions on every turn ?

Do you invest in stock market ? If you are not yourself a broker did you have access to stock market in pre NSE Era when few brokers called the shots on floor of BSE in cryptic signs language ?

When was the last time you ever received a wrong number on landline phone ? Do you remember how many wrong numbers one used to get in electro-mechanical cross bar exchange era Can 4G and 5G networks work without IT and software ?

Do you use a mobile phone ? How many million lines of code goes in to it ?



The whole problem of Indian IT was due to a simple fact that not enough investment was done to improve IT systems of Indians in India and people worked on wage arbitrage models.
With increased digitization the situation has changed and also for local software markets wages are also getting aligned to local realities.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by amitk26

The whole problem of Indian IT was due to a simple fact that not enough investment was done to improve IT systems of Indians in India and people worked on wage arbitrage models.

You sir, have brought up a very valuable point that most people working in the industry today may not have heard about!

I remember when I was in school and used to follow the fledgling IT industry news through magazines like PC Quest (it used to be an actual computer science and coding magazine back then, not just a computer products brochure), the talk was all about building software for Indian companies and businesses. I think if we had focused on that (like companies like Tally have done), we'd have a deeper and more sustainable IT industry today.

Then the whole policy shift towards software services exports and SEZs happened. Not a bad thing in itself, it earned and continues to earn a lot of revenue and boosted the economy and transferred technology (and enabled whole scale land scams in cities ) and all that, but for all the hype about a "hi-tech industry" and "India's Silicon Valley", ultimately the basic model for most companies here was and remains - buy (coding talent) at a low cost and sell high. It also handicapped the development of Indian IT products. Neither of which make for a sustainable model.

[honeybee]

Originally Posted by amitk26

I think answer is not so simple perhaps your definition of IT is bit hazy.
Let me ask few simple questions and if answer is yes to anyone of them below the my friend you do need IT

Perhaps I need to explain my point better.

I often think about what all programming languages I learnt in my decades of association with PCs.

Then I think of what would happen if I were to lose my job today.

If I were to go solo, I would have to find work as an IT consultant.

If I had studied electrical engineering, my skills would still be relevant.

If I had learnt plumbing or carpentry, I know people would still need me for those odd jobs.

You are right that smartphones represent a part of IT. But it's highly unlikely that I shall hire my neighbouring mobile developer to fix an issue with my smartphone.

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by honeybee

You are right that smartphones represent a part of IT. But it's highly unlikely that I shall hire my neighbouring mobile developer to fix an issue with my smartphone.

You are defining your need based on the supply chain distance between you and the labour. That is not correct.

You may wear a leather shoe, but you will never meet the tanner who made the leather from the animal skin. Can we do away with the tanning industry then?

[honeybee]

Originally Posted by Samurai

You may wear a leather shoe, but you will never meet the tanner who made the leather from the animal skin. Can we do away with the tanning industry then?

Two points:

If the leather shoe needed mending, I would go to my local cobbler first. Both the company and the individual artisan survive.

The other is the artisan can make me a leather shoe - not as elegant looking as the company made one, but it can be done.

Not the same with IT. I have been an application programmer. If something went wrong with a smart device, I wouldn't know how to fix it.

A cobbler, on the other hand, would know how to mend leather shoes, chappals, sandals, canvas shoes - pretty much any footwear.

I understand this analogy may be far from perfect. But when I visualize a life away from the costly cities and in some quiet village, I realize I have none of the skills actually essential to living life. What I have are useless to earn me my daily bread.

[Chetan_Rao]

Originally Posted by honeybee

Two points:

If the leather shoe needed mending, I would go to my local cobbler first. Both the company and the individual artisan survive.

The other is the artisan can make me a leather shoe - not as elegant looking as the company made one, but it can be done....

You missed his point entirely.

His point isn't about who can or can't make or mend a leather shoe. It goes up the supply chain to the point of existence of the leather in your premise.

No leather, no shoes for you, no cobbler needed, shoe-making/mending skills irrelevant.

That you don't personally depend on individual steps of a process doesn't make you entirely independent of the process itself. Applies to everything right from your most basic needs to the other extreme of the scale.