[msdivy]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

Even with symptoms, what would you gain from the test? Unless you are seriously sick to the point where you can’t breathe or have extreme fever, you are better off just self isolating yourself as there is no medicine or cure available in any case.

That is true in case the person has the means to isolate himself, including a separate room & a separate bathroom. Unfortunately, 99% of houses in India do not have that luxury.

In another news - Pizza boy tests +ve, 72 families quarantined. Here goes the online delivery business. People will be more cautious about ordering online.

[DCEite]

Originally Posted by msdivy

Here goes the online delivery business. People will be more cautious about ordering online.

More than the online delivery business, i am more concerned how many would have been infected by this potential "Super Spreader" Pizza boy.

Delhi's numbers were beginning to look good for past couple of days and now this.

[vibbs]

Originally Posted by nagr22

To explain in even simpler terms, if a test is marked as 99% accurate it means that if I give 100 samples which are already known to be positive, then the test result will show positive 99 times and 1 test will be a false negative. This is due to the way they test in the laboratory.
Now how accurate is the test result when I know that only 1 out of the 100 samples is actually positive? This seems like an easy question but it's not. Bayesian statistics is a subject designed around problems like these.
.

Thank you for explaining in layman terms.

My understanding is this. Ideally it should work the way you said. But a lot depends on contact tracing. Ie. If we have been able to trace everyone to the index case.

If not, we already have a lot of potential spreaders in the population who are already spreading the disease to others. I agree it is not practically possible to test all 130 billion population (even a fraction of that actually) it is also why random testing is needed in my opinion. To establish the spread in areas and to keep them isolated from the affected areas. After all it is not possible to infinitely lock down the country as well. It may give a few false alarms but the alarm has already rung if you have not been able to zero in on the index patient for atleast majority of the cases.

[srishiva]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...#seccestitle10

Gives the health care access and quality index for countries. India has a low score. Also, we can see within India there is a difference of 30 points between the best and worst.

[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by msdivy

That is true in case the person has the means to isolate himself, including a separate room & a separate bathroom. Unfortunately, 99% of houses in India do not have that luxury.

In another news - Pizza boy tests +ve, 72 families quarantined. Here goes the online delivery business. People will be more cautious about ordering online.

At least 30% of homes in India would qualify for self quarantine, not just 1% as you stated. Especially in rural areas, people have larger homes and often have an additional bathroom.
I am not too bothered by the delivery person testing positive. Chances of customers getting infected from him are slim unless you hug him, invite him in to a closed space for an extended period or otherwise get very close to his face. Anyone feeling paranoid can ask him to leave the box outside and pick it up after he has left.

[ninjatalli]

Originally Posted by vivek95

I can sense the impending doom on the people in the healthcare sector when it comes to Mumbai. Few days back I highlighted the fact of many private multispeciality hospitals closing doors during this crisis and I have slowly begun to experience the adverse effect of this. I am not talking about small nursing homes but fairly big multispeciality hospitals which can cater to non-covid patients. The pathetic doctor to patient/ nurse to patient ratio and overall inadequate healthcare infrastructure of our country will only be brought to the fore by this pandemic.

Dr. Vivek,
I hope the situation is not as dire as this Mumbai Mirror article puts it
- A 66-year-old resident who tested positive spends 30 hours in the parking lot of KEM hospital and being run around 3 different hospitals before getting admitted
- husband of a pregnant Covid-19 positive woman struggled for 24 hours to get her admitted to a hospital
- A Covid-19 positive resident of south Mumbai was taken on a four-hour tour of four hospitals before being admitted

Seemingly there is no centralized desk or visibility of available beds and most hospitals seem to be already low on beds

Source


Mumbai folks,
Stay at home as much as possible and practice safe distancing if you have to go out. Even after the lockdown is removed.

[skdking]

Originally Posted by nagr22

To explain in even simpler terms, if a test is marked as 99% accurate it means that if I give 100 samples which are already known to be positive, then the test result will show positive 99 times and 1 test will be a false negative. This is due to the way they test in the laboratory. .........

Very well explained, nagr22.

For those who believe that being in isolation means separate toilets for them I would say that it is a rumour with no element of truth.

Please read this -
https://patient.info/news-and-featur...o-self-isolate

Originally Posted by JithinR

.......

Washing your hands with soap, touching a potentially infected object to get to the Pizza slice and then eating it (direct contact with your mouth) seems like an unnecessary risk at this time. Even contactless delivery won't help in such a case.

You do have a point.

But I feel it is troublesome to eat any food from outside.Infection may sneak in via the food, not from the packing material.

[JithinR]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

I am not too bothered by the delivery person testing positive. Chances of customers getting infected from him are slim unless you hug him, invite him in to a closed space for an extended period or otherwise get very close to his face. Anyone feeling paranoid can ask him to leave the box outside and pick it up after he has left.

Wasn't there research released on this sometime last month that showed that the virus is stable on Cardboard for up to 24 hours (I understand that different conditions like temperature, humidity might have some effect here but still Pizza delivery comes within such time frames).

Washing your hands with soap, touching a potentially infected object to get to the Pizza slice and then eating it (direct contact with your mouth) seems like an unnecessary risk at this time. Even contactless delivery won't help in such a case.

[TusharK]

Toyota's post lockdown 'Restart Manual' for businesses

Toyota has released a 'Restart Manual' to resume business operations post lockdown. It includes standard operating procedures (SoP) to ensure safest possible restart to manufacturing.



According to Toyota, the Restart Manual is a guide for reorganizing and safely resuming business operations to near normalcy after the lockdown is lifted, while ensuring the health, well-being and safety of all employees. It includes graphical illustrations of safety measures to be adopted at each function.

The Restart Manual adheres to government guidelines and will be used by Toyota and its suppliers. It has also been shared with all the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA) members. Toyota also intends to share it with other industries through the CII.

All over the country, industries have shut down their operations due to the Covid-19 pandemic. However, there is a possibility that the government could allow manufacturing to restart post April 20, 2020.

Toyota Restart Manual PDF Copy .pdf

Link to Team-BHP News

[srishiva]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN21Y102

The Dutch say 3% of people have antibodies for coronovirus. That means hundreds of thousands having been exposed to it. So different viruses have different antibodies. The numbers we see in that case everywhere could be multiplied many times.

I hope India can start the antibody test on large scale by randomizing people. This will also help people to start working if they have already had the infection and doing fine.

[JithinR]

Another argument for widespread testing to take place:

1. https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/20...ot-ctn-vpx.cnn
2. https://www.livescience.com/coronavi...-high-nyc.html
3. https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/85965

The doctor in the CNN interview mentions a study that found 15% of pregnant women coming in for usual deliveries (no complications as such) testing positive for SARS-COV-2 in New York City hospitals. Most of them were asymptomatic.

The sample size is too small for a definite conclusion but looking at how widespread this is in a city like New York (whose density is nothing compared to our metropolitan cities) supports an argument for why widespread testing might be needed to reinforce any gains from a lockdown.

P.S. The doctor in the interview when asked if everyone should be tested, simply answers 'Yes, Everyone should be tested'. That is not a view that I support since it would be impractical for U.S.A let alone India.

[mvadg]

A $3 antibody test for SARS-COV2!
Article

Bangladesh scientists create $3 kit. Can it help detect COVID-19? Bangladesh pharma regulator allows mass production of dot blot test kit but researchers say it has its limitations

I'm sure we have similar kits developed in India. Rs 300 seems very affordable, I wouldn't mind getting tested every week at these prices. Since it detects antibodies to the virus, it is not very accurate but it will definitely do a good job if used multiple times on anyone so the body is given time to develop antibodies. Imagine this test applied to everyone coming into contact with the general public, like the pizza delivery boy.

[am1m]

I was just wondering, if we're saying we can't test the majority of people, how will we then propose to vaccinate the majority of people once a vaccine does become available? The same challenges of population, resources, manpower, awareness, etc etc will apply in that case as well, won't they?

(I'm sure I'm over-simplifying, or missing something very obvious, doctors or people with the facts (not just links to fox news!) please correct me, thanks!)

[srishiva]

Originally Posted by mvadg

A $3 antibody test for SARS-COV2!
Article
I'm sure we have similar kits developed in India. Rs 300 seems very affordable, I wouldn't mind getting tested every week at these prices. Since it detects antibodies to the virus, it is not very accurate but it will definitely do a good job if used multiple times on anyone so the body is given time to develop antibodies. Imagine this test applied to everyone coming into contact with the general public, like the pizza delivery boy.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...?homepage=true

We are getting 5.5 antibody and 1 lakh RNA extraction kits from China. What disappoints was the past news of new testing kits, new ventilator designs etc weeks ago. We haven't been able to move on those.

We have heard about splitters that can enable one ventilator to serve more. Here is one
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...211901285.html

[StarrySky]

Originally Posted by mvadg

I'm sure we have similar kits developed in India.

This was in the news last week: https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news...logy-1.4670609

Based on the news report, mass production should have started this week. However, I don't know if the kit has been approved by ICMR and what the status of mass production is.