[AMG Power]

Originally Posted by condor

About 200 American companies are seeking to move their manufacturing base from China to India

Have been expecting this scenario as amongst the positive fallouts of the current scenario. Expect companies in Europe to also follow the US in this regard.

But that's where the problems will start. Red tape, bureaucracy, delayed clearances, non availability of experienced personnel, delays in setting up the plant, quality issues on the final product, delayed customer deadlines and a host of issues will no doubt make these companies seriously rethink this strategy.

The Chinese would have spoilt them silly by working like clockwork. While we on the other hand, would show them our ability to come up with excuses like clockwork.

[AZT]

Originally Posted by condor

Can this situation help India in the long run ?

About 200 American companies are seeking to move their manufacturing base from China to India post the general elections, a top US-based advocacy group has said, seeking an alternative to China as a base.

I have read a lot of such articles and this is not as simple as it looks. China's advantage is not just in cost, but also in supply chain and infrastructure built over 2 decades. Even in the above article the key word is seeking, I would wait for 6 more months to see how badly this affects our country to see where the money flows. Plus we are forgetting, China has recovered and manufacturing is almost back to full swing. We are at the start of the curve and with a lot of the labour class moved back to their villages, it will be a while before we can see manufacturing get back to where it was.

[volkman10]

FCA Cutting Worker Salaries By 20% For Up To 3 Months, CEO Gets 50% Cut.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles will temporarily defer salaries of employees around the world by 20 per cent in a bid to avoid making layoffs amidst the coronavirus pandemic.

the compensation reduction will start April 1 and could last for up to three months. The car manufacturer will repay its employees their lost funds no later than March 15, 2021

Link

[V.Narayan]

I do not know what impact CV-19 will have on the world health situation - hopefully not proportional to the panic but it certainly will alter the geo-political dynamics. At this point we cannot forsee what those changes might be or whose flag will get stronger and whose weaker. We cannot foresee the internal changes with a country's Govt that this might wrought in China, USA, UK, Spain & Italy & Iran. We do not yet know what impact it has had in North Korea and the resultant impact on that country's leadership. All in all a year of change and change within change lies ahead.

[condor]

Came across this:

The world economy will go into recession this year with a predicted loss of trillions of dollars of global income due to the coronavirus pandemic, spelling serious trouble for developing countries with the likely exception of India and China, accordi...

https://www.deccanherald.com/busines...un-819544.html


China - may be, though they will also be affected by drop in global demand

India - I hope they are right. We have generally been fiscally prudent and not gone overboard following global trends.

[sunishsamuel]

Originally Posted by condor

spelling serious trouble for developing countries with the likely exception of India and China, accordi...

I am not sure how India can be an exception. Been getting so many whatsapp messages about the above news and how people are going to be safe under the current leadership and so on...Can't believe that people are so quick in pasting leader's picture and send this as "Even World is acknowledging India as a super power and that recession won't affect us"

I definitely want to see India as a super power but it won't happen till we fix basics. Happy to be proven wrong.

With global banking, airlines, manufacturing, hospitality and related sector under stress, IT industry goes through a recession it will definitely affect India - especially the services. We have major clients in USA, Europe. And in turn will have a ripple effect on the real estate, automobiles, shopping/retail, food and beverages and so on. At the same time i also see state governments struggling to pay salaries (Read about Telangana govt. and Kerala govt latest press statements) Is this news article correct or am i missing something very obvious ?

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by sunishsamuel

With global banking, airlines, manufacturing, hospitality and related sector under stress, IT industry goes through a recession it will definitely affect India - especially the services. Is this news article correct or am i missing something very obvious ?

Clearly, the UNCTAD report assumes that the World's lockdown and corona crisis will be shortlived. Not sure what models they used to come to this conclusion.

I am not sure how India can be an exception.

India is actually an exception when it comes to GDP growth. Historically, we have not had negative growth in recent times. Unlike most countries, India has:

- Large population
- Diversified economy (manufacturing, services, farming)
- Large geographic area (with their own sub-economy)
- Not too dependent on exports (especially commodity exports)

Note that we did not have negative growth even in 2008.

Been getting so many whatsapp messages about the above news and how people are going to be safe under the current leadership and so on...Can't believe that people are so quick in pasting leader's picture and send this as "Even World is acknowledging India as a super power and that recession won't affect us"

GDP growth not falling into negative territory has nothing to do with leader or Govt's policies.

[srishiva]

Companies might be willing to move to India. But what do we do with the bureaucracy ? Even starting a local company is still difficult.

In addition, do we have the right infrastructure for manufacturing companies to move ? Ports, roads, water, Power, incentives etc. Even then we will have to depend on Chinese supply chain for basic things.

It needs some elaborate planning, investing and policies which we have seen failing even in our response to the virus.

[sdp1975]

There was an income tax cess imposed after the Kargil war. As per some media reports, the cess was also spent on expenses not related to the war.

I would not be surprised to see a COVID-19 cess being imposed.

[AMG Power]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Not sure what models they used to come to this conclusion.

That is precisely the issue. It seems to be a paper hurriedly put together by UNCTAD as they had to be seen to be doing something rather than keeping silent.

On the other hand it doesn't take too much to guess that there will be some effect on the global economy. Yes, India and China won't be badly effected either because of large captive consumption potential.

But I wouldn't put too much of an accuracy level on the extent of global recession otherwise being predicted.

[SmartCat]

This is Nassim Taleb, the author who coined the term 'Black Swan' in his book (where he mentioned the risk of pandemics to global economy).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tb2pXXUSzmI

He calls the Coronavirus pandemic "not a black swan" event, because risk of pandemics to global economy was well known to many. But countries did not do enough to prevent its spread.

[AZT]

World's biggest wealth fund dragged closer to forced asset sales

Norway’s US$950 billion sovereign wealth fund -- the world’s biggest -- is about to make history as it prepares to liquidate assets to cover government withdrawals.
The crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic is playing out very differently for the giant investor than the 2008 great recession. Back then, Norway’s wealth fund used the global sell-off to buy up cheap stocks. This time, the fund will probably need to offload a sizable chunk of its bond portfolio.

Read more: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/world-s-...ales-1.1414893

[alpha1]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

He calls the Coronavirus pandemic "not a black swan" event, because risk of pandemics to global economy was well known to many. But countries did not do enough to prevent its spread.

He may be right in labeling Coronavirus as a simple pandemic waiting to happen, however its effect on the world economy has been (and will continue to be) nothing short of "black swan" event because
1) the spread and severity of it has caught every one with their pants down
2) consequential risks (effects on economy especially) cannot be determined without admitting that we really don't know.

eg:
■ Can any of the esteemed "experts" (who have given revised GDP growth rate estimates) throw light on how much days of lockdown is anticipated?
■ What is the probability of current 21-day lockdown being not extended?
■ What is the probability distribution of lockdown being extended by "n" number of days?
■ What is the calculable effect of economic activity loss of each day?
■ Is the loss of economic activity linearly distributed vs the days lost?
■ What will be the extent of damage (socially, economically) caused by the current (worsening) siutation?
■ What is the economic model of resurgence/revival from such a pandemic?
■ Oh and no expert seems to be paying attention to the fact not all the countries have entered into lockdown at same time for same duration.

[volkman10]

Wimbledon 2020 cancelled: Coronavirus halts Championships for the first time since Second World War.

The French Open had already been postponed, provisionally shoehorned into the schedule in late September.

It will be the first time since the Second World War that Wimbledon has not been staged.

Link

[volkman10]

Bounce, Vogo, Drivezy hardest hit by Covid-19 turn to layoffs, salary cuts.

Startups have started laying off staff and, in some cases, asked employees to take pay cuts as they look for ways to weather the impact of the coronavirus outbreak

Companies, however, cited that such measures are mainly to keep businesses running as there is no certainty as to when things will return to normal.

Online insurance firm Acko has laid off around 50 employees, a majority of whom work in the customer service, operations, sales and marketing segments.

Link