re: India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020 I am having conflicting thoughts on this lockdown. Initially I supported the idea but more I see, the more I am left wondering if this is the best course of action. I understand the necessity of it but the practicality of it seems far fetched.
First of all, it is difficult, if not impossible to implement. People would not follow it in many places. Then there is the issue of this relaxation in curfew in many states for a few hours and we have seen pictures of crowds thronging the market areas during those few hours which negates any benefit of the separation. Then we come to the practical difficulties. There are so many essential services and people related to them. We have to have some one growing wheat or farming, then someone running a flour mill, then people running grain markets, storage warehouses, transportation and then retail. Just look at the chain for only wheat. Can the farmer go and tend to his field all day everyday and can his workers commute or else the crops would be ruined? The same then applies to making bread, biscuits and so on. Now we have power supply, telecommunications and so on. How would the power stations run if the employees can't travel due to public transport being banned? What about the driver of the truck transporting the food? If that truck needs repair then would the mechanic or service station also be considered essential or the chain would break down? What about factories making equipment for telecom or railways? Electricity is considered an essential service. Does that include the electrician coming to my home if I have a power failure or internal wiring problems? What about repairing an air conditioner? The list of exceptions needed is so long that it would eventually make no sense to try and have a shutdown. Then we have the living conditions of the bottom 25 to 50% who live in crowded structures with a lot of people overflowing in small alleys. Can we stop them from even hanging together in their compounds and alleys? As time goes by, people are bound to flout the lockdown and try to sell their goods, find work or meet friends and lovers.
Then we come to the implementation. Just like demonetisation, it is a grand sounding policy but the minute details have not been worked out. We have multiple reports of food delivery personnel being stopped and beaten, essential service personnel not being able to open the premises or commute and even large scale grocery retailers like Big Basket and Grofers shut down by the local police despite being on the exempt list. We have letters from the telecom ministry requesting states to allow broadband and mobile service personnel to travel to their locations. Yes, it might get sorted out in a few days but all this should have been done before as we had at least a month to plan this. We have seen pictures of people crowding on buses and trains to try and get home. What was the need for secrecy? Why not announce a graded response and allow people to prepare and plan beforehand? In any case all the migrant workers going back home in crowded transport has probably done more harm and they have spread the virus to every remote nook and corner of the country. As time passes, I am afraid all essential services would start breaking down.
I think a better approach would have been to shut crowded areas like schools, old market areas etc. and impose social distancing elsewhere. For instance, the malls could have remained open but allowed only a limited number of people inside at a time along with keeping them apart. Similar approach could have been followed by shops and restaurants. What is the risk if a person travels in his / her own car and then goes for a walk in a park or on the beach? What is needed is to avoid crowds in the park and the beach. We could have learnt from China and started an app where people could book a slot for the beach say once a week. Same for major parks. Allow a few dozen to a few hundred people (depending on the size) with police or volunteers guiding them to keep some distance. The same applies for the malls, markets and other common areas. All the resources engaged in this shutdown could have been deployed in guiding people to keep distance. This would have kept at least 25 to 50% of the economy running. We could have done the same for factories and other manufacturing units. Make the area well ventilated or filtered and try and keep workers apart. At least the units could have run at 50% capacity perhaps using two shifts.
Finally what makes me uneasy is the loss of our rights. Currently, even the courts have completely closed down and thus there is absolutely no oversight or relief available from any any abuse of power. If a person was detained by the police frivolously last week or happens to be detained now, there would be no hearing, no bail possible for many months. In addition, no clear guidelines have been issued as to whether a person can move on foot or in his vehicle for emergencies. It would have been better to allow one person per family to go out say every 3 days to purchase essential items in a radius of a few kms from their home. Again, China did this quite well and all we had to do was copy them. Currently, I have no idea if I go out to buy medicines or groceries or use and ATM, all of which are supposedly open as essential services, would I be allowed to go or would I be beaten or my vehicle seized? We have all seen videos of police beating people and seizing vehicles. In addition, this would create bad habits in these policemen where they would become accustomed to using force even after this is over.
In light of these factors, I think we would have done better to follow the Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan models where everything is open and people are keeping their distance and washing hands often. They seem to have kept the situation quite well under control. In addition, we should focus on ramping up production for medical supplies, build temporary hospitals in government buildings, universities etc to accommodate the surge of patients. If we cripple the supply chain beforehand and instill panic where even labourers and truck drivers have fled to their remote villages then how will we ramp up manufacturing to deal with the upcoming challenge ahead when needed?
Last edited by Lobogris : 25th March 2020 at 21:01.
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