[msvg]

Hi Folks,

Please suggest for long term and short term 75-25 investment as i have Rs 1 lakh to invest into the market now.
please advice.

thanks
MSVG

[eq24]

Originally Posted by msvg

Hi Folks,

Please suggest for long term and short term 75-25 investment as i have Rs 1 lakh to invest into the market now.
please advice.

thanks
MSVG

I would recommend reliance industries limited for medium term. Company is doing well and with recent gas discoveries more upsight is in order.

For short term and do with a tight stop but Ranbaxy is making a comeback. The old owners have pretty much done as much damage as possible and now Daichii Sankyo is working hard on things better.

Salt is also a good bet as they will soon absorb Hindustan zinc.

All the above are blue chips and on the Nifty 50 index so not much risk.

Buy at lows, the current taper announcement will push prices lower in the next few days to week so buy at the time.

You can look at other large cap or any players on the nifty mid cap index. Most are decent bets with safe returns.

Good luck.

[S_U_N]

FundsIndia has done an analysis of their calls of 2013.
http://www.fundsindia.com/blog/mutua...-round-up/4228
It is interesting and heartening to note that their picks have yielded good results, overall.

This year, they plan to recommend high risk stocks as well, which is an icing on the cake.

[swiftnfurious]

Any of the guys do a "Multibagger" here? I used to read about these on Money Control blog and used to take a dip (3-4 years back) and mostly ended up with decent profits.

But I really want to know whether these are some "tricked" stocks by someone?

[ontheroad]

Recently came across this blog.
http://value-picks.blogspot.in/?m=1.

Seems many of his recommendations did well.

[S_U_N]

Originally Posted by ontheroad

Recently came across this blog.
http://value-picks.blogspot.in/?m=1.

Seems many of his recommendations did well.

Awesome. Exactly the kind of information I was hunting for.

Now, time to put some money on some of those.

[alpha1]

I have a subtle method (which means no meteoric 10 time returns), but which I have been using since past many months (actually 2-3 years now) giving consistent returns. I have not seen it fail till now (unless the stock market takes an ever increasing plunge - in which case you liquidate).

Go with the stocks hitting 52 week high (preferable those that hit 52 week high the previous week). Hold them (with a "stoploss" of 10% or whatever is your risk appetite). Of course after checking their past weekly performance for at least 1-2 years - easily checked on icharts.in. The stock has to be on uptrend. A lot of 52 week high are not really on uptrend - they just fluctuate around their 52 wk high figure - up & down quite frequently. Filter these out. They will mostly end up staying flat.

If the scrip doesn't lose steam - you will see that such scrips goes only higher.
Increase your holding with every 10% increase in the scrip's price. And keep revising your stop losses based on this price.
And always be aware of at least the stocks you hold. Check weekly, if not daily.


Currently have had good returns (some are excellent) - like Eicher Motors, Asian Paints, Mindtree, Tech M etc
I could've made fabulous return on Wockhardt but like an idiot I stopped checking the status this year (and thus didn't exercise the stop loss). We all know what happened to Wock around the middle of this year. Still I ended with some profit (entered 500, exit 700). If I would've been aware and followed my system - I would've made cool humungous money (entry 500, exit 1800!)

The point is you cannot know today which stocks are going to become 5-10 times in say 2-3 years. Only a consistent system allows you to end up with stocks that actually rise high and mighty.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by swiftnfurious

Any of the guys do a "Multibagger" here? I used to read about these on Money Control blog and used to take a dip (3-4 years back) and mostly ended up with decent profits.

But I really want to know whether these are some "tricked" stocks by someone?

I've had a few multibaggers (3x to 11x times returns) in my 13 years in the stock market. My biggest learning is :

If you want multibaggers in your portfolio, DON'T look for one - because you won't find it. Instead, invest in 20 or 30 small & midcaps, and if your picks are decent, a few of them will automatically turn out of to be multibaggers over a long period of time.

In my portfolio, whichever stock I thought would be a clear multibagger, it offered average returns. But some stocks which I never thought would be a multibagger ended up being just that.

[ontheroad]

Originally Posted by S_U_N

Awesome. Exactly the kind of information I was hunting for.

Now, time to put some money on some of those.

I also bought three of his recent calls. Investing equally in all those calls. I try to buy more or less the same rate recommended by him, but it is observed that those stocks dont have sellers for a few days after his recommendation. So end up buying at 10 to 15% higher than his call rate. Still hope to get good return if they end up as multibaggers.

[S_U_N]

Originally Posted by ontheroad

I also bought three of his recent calls. Investing equally in all those calls. I try to buy more or less the same rate recommended by him, but it is observed that those stocks dont have sellers for a few days after his recommendation. So end up buying at 10 to 15% higher than his call rate. Still hope to get good return if they end up as multibaggers.

Well, when I looked closely, it seems he does not have any recent recommendations. All the stuff that he has posted earlier is now UP.
But that is not suitable for someone who wants to invest now, or is it?

I think I have to wait for some new recommendation first.

[VindyWheels]

Hi,

This portfolio has given handsome returns so far though the market went no-where during the period. I hear many investors telling how risky mid and small caps are. But I believe if you can pick businesses which have high competitive advantage, ably lead and are in a path of growth, the performance of the company will over-ride other factors like current market cap, broader market sentiment, slowdown in the economy etc

It is not the standard deviation of stock prices which represents risks, its one's understanding (lack of) of the business as Warren Buffet teaches us.

Kaveri has already given 31% return, Canfin 30% return, Symphony 61% return and MPS 75% return in 6 months time.

Had watched Mohnish Pabrai's lecture at MDI recently. He mentions how in India we need not practice "value investing" as Graham and Dodd advocated. There is no need to buy cigar butts, you can pay a higher price and still make a lot of money.

Happy Investing

VW

Originally Posted by VindyWheels

Hi,

Here are some of stocks which look attractive at current price and ideal % allocation of fund if I were to build a portfolio today:

1) Kaveri Seed company - Rs 1530 - allocate 30% of the fund
2) Canfin Homes - Rs 125 - allocate 20%
3) Symphony Aircoolers - Rs 285 - allocate 20%
4) Navneet Publications - Rs 58 - allocate 15%
5) MPS Ltd - Rs 125 - allocate 15%

This is just my thought process and the above picks and weights can change according to changing market situations. But I'm confident in my research and expect this portfolio to give atleast 30% returns in FY14. Please do own due diligence before taking your investment decisions and always be wary of borrowed conviction.

Rgds

VW

[S_U_N]

I invested in Mafatlal after value-picks recommended it at 148. I bought at 160 or so. Right now it is at 113.
Someone else recommended TataSteel to me. I thought what could go wrong to such an old company. So I invested. It is down by Rs. 75 now.

So, wherever I put money, that stock comes down?

@VindyWheels: Welcome back.
Any of these stocks worth investing still?

Originally Posted by VindyWheels

Hi,

This portfolio has given handsome returns so far ...

VW

[VindyWheels]

Thank You SUN,

I never touch stocks like Tata Steel as there are too many variables and many of them macro variables which I cannot predict.

I am currently excited about two distinct opportunities playing out in India.

1) There is a huge shift happening from un-organised to organised sector in many fields. The IT revolution and reforms lead economic growth has been building wealthier and growing rural/middle class segment. They are seeking better quality products and services. They have aspirations to use branded products. See how Page industries, Hawkins, TTK Prestige, Cera Sanitary ware etc grew.

I think Symphony is a great play on similar lines. 70-80% aircooler market is still dominated by unorganised sector. Symphony is eating away their market share with more aesthetic, higher quality products with lots of features. Among organised players they have a 50% market share.

V-Mart is another one - stores are predominantly in Tier-2/3 towns. They offer better shopping experience to the under-served segment of customers. The inventory management, same store sales growth, shrinkage etc are impressive. Company has grown their sales by 63% in the just concluded quarter.

Shriram City Union Finance - here the money lenders business is getting shifted to organised players. They largely fund small business owners. The valuations are attractive, growth was affected due to Andhra issues, but that is temporary.

2) India is going up the technology value chain - just like millions of engineers lead the IT revolution in the last 2 decades there is a nice shift happening in terms of Contract Research and Manufacturing (CRAMs) in pharma and agrochemicals. India has 6 times more number of chemists than in US and they cost nearly 1/10th only. India has the most number of USFDA approved plants outside of US much higher than even China. Over the last decade we went far ahead of others in developing our complex chemistry skills and better IP laws helped build confidence among global innovator companies to partner with Indian companies. See how Divis Lab grew from a 270 Cr company to 17000 Cr company in 10 years!

I think PI Industries and Shilpa Medicare offer good opportunities to play this.

A word of caution: I have done indepth analysis (includes interviewing the management in some cases) of each of these companies and have high conviction in their growth prospects. But one needs to track such companies very carefully - how is their new product development, are they managing working capital well, are they taking too much debt, is the management walking the talk regarding new orders, earnings targets, capacity expansion etc. So even though my experience so far has been very rewarding I would not advocate this strategy for part time investors.

Happy Investing

Originally Posted by S_U_N

I invested in Mafatlal after value-picks recommended it at 148. I bought at 160 or so. Right now it is at 113.
Someone else recommended TataSteel to me. I thought what could go wrong to such an old company. So I invested. It is down by Rs. 75 now.

So, wherever I put money, that stock comes down?

@VindyWheels: Welcome back.
Any of these stocks worth investing still?

[Saanil]

Originally Posted by VindyWheels

A word of caution: I have done indepth analysis (includes interviewing the management in some cases) of each of these companies and have high conviction in their growth prospects. But one needs to track such companies very carefully - how is their new product development, are they managing working capital well, are they taking too much debt, is the management walking the talk regarding new orders, earnings targets, capacity expansion etc. So even though my experience so far has been very rewarding I would not advocate this strategy for part time investors.

Happy Investing

Good to see such level of explanation! Really helping people here.

Just wanted to ask one thing - Do these companies entertain retail investors? I mean it looks like you are into Institutional equities but would a retail investor like me get answers to all my questions?

[VindyWheels]

Sanil,

Getting entry into the AGM and conference calls hosted by them is straight forward. You buy a few shares and you are in. Call the CS/CFO to get the conference call details. You can ask questions during AGMs and conference calls.
For management interaction it may not be as easy, but most small companies entertain when you pursue doggedly and also let them know you are serious.

You can send them a list of questions too. I know a network of independent investors out there who manage to meet the managements regularly.

In one of my previous posts I had mentioned the websites too.

Happy Investing

Vindy

Originally Posted by Saanil

Good to see such level of explanation! Really helping people here.

Just wanted to ask one thing - Do these companies entertain retail investors? I mean it looks like you are into Institutional equities but would a retail investor like me get answers to all my questions?