[hothatchaway]

Originally Posted by arnav17

Advice needed from the stock market gurus of this forum.

I am currently 17, (turning 18 in a few months) and my dad is encouraging me to start learning about the stock market. He does stocks but not much and is willing to give me a small amount to start off in the market.

Logically, what is the first thing I should do? Any books, YT guides reccomendations would be helpful.

In addition to reading, start listening to the quarterly earnings calls of select companies. Pick companies that you can relate to or were already interested in, for eg auto/FMCG/lifestyle brands. Type "company name earnings concall" on youtube to access these. More than the CEO reading out the numbers, it is the questions that the audience asks which could be revealing.

[ranjitnair77]

Originally Posted by arnav17

Advice needed from the stock market gurus of this forum.

I am currently 17, (turning 18 in a few months) and my dad is encouraging me to start learning about the stock market. He does stocks but not much and is willing to give me a small amount to start off in the market.

Logically, what is the first thing I should do? Any books, YT guides reccomendations would be helpful.

I think the best possible way is to use LLMs like ChatGPT to learn. It is the fastest way to easily digest concepts. You can start with very basic questions and work your way up. An example could be:

What is fundamental analysis? What are some of the key valuation metrics?
What is meant by P/E ratios? Can you explain that with a simple example?

This allows you to learn interactively and at your own pace and is a far more effective way to understand. Watching videos or reading books is a static way to learn which is outdated. It is also a waste of time to read materials and other content put out by companies. A lot of that content is fluff. You can simply ask ChatGPT to summarise things and cut to the chase. Here's an example:

Summarise the last quarterly earnings call by Hindustan Unilever.
Which Categories over-performed and underperformed?

I've been investing for a long time and I could never fully understand derivatives until I asked ChatGPT to really simplify it with analogies. Do verify things before you make investment decisions.

[TheCamShaft]

Originally Posted by arnav17

Logically, what is the first thing I should do? Any books, YT guides reccomendations would be helpful.

To start with , read through "The Psychology of Money"; it is a right book to ground your mind holistically on investing. And for anyone starting with investing, this is a must-read book. If for anything, start here.

Secondly, I would recommend watching Dhirendra Kumar's videos on ValueResearch portal. He keeps emphasising basics (largely leaning towards Mutual Funds), which i believe everyone must know . As you are new into investments, MFs might be a good way to start with and wet your feet into the world of investments. Also you will get an idea of taxations on different investment vehicles which is equally a must know as the investments itself.

Once you experience the market through the world of MFs, and confident to take a direct plunge, you can start investments in stocks. There are two schools of analysis there- fundamental and technical analysis. Take efforts to understand either or both, it will come handy for decision making with stocks. Do not take a direct plunge if you don't make efforts to understand either, that will be like shooting in dark. As another BHPian said, don't do intra-day trades however attractive it is. Stick with swing or long term, and understanding taxation part (which you will from Dhirendra Kumar's videos) will help you make conscious selling decisions.

Wishing you an enjoyable investing journey! With age on your side, you have a long runway to make safe flights and landings.

[Mystic]

On a personal level after retirement, my exposure to stock market is zero. Whenever I see such news as below today, I ask my son in USA what is his loss and he casually says a big number which is something I cannot digest after converting to INR.

My dumb question is why the present market is called Kangaroo market instead of bull or bear market. For every little issue that breaks in news, stock market immediately reacts. Is this correct? or it is the way the big players play the game and need an excuse to create confusion so that all small time players are wiped out of their savings. Why India market sneezes if USA market catches cold?

https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/us-m...s-19571680.htm

[NomadSK]

Originally Posted by Mystic

Why India market sneezes if USA market catches cold?

Its the other way round, Indian market catches cold when USA market sneezes.

The reason, is USD and petrodollar, the whole world's economy is pegged & coupled with that.

Thanks to Trump, with no forward looking, which markets usually are, its termed as Kangaroo market, where both bulls & bears are confused. I heard it's right time to short Tesla.

[Ananthang]

Bhpians, Want to know your thoughts on Swiggy and Zomato. I started my invested journey reading books by Peter Lynch. One of the points he mentioned is catch the stocks of companies which we see is being used by many. With that aspect I thought usage of food delivery is phenomenal and they are to extend to smaller towns and expand across cities. With market corrections is time to buy Zomato or Swiggy for long term.

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by Ananthang

Bhpians, Want to know your thoughts on Swiggy and Zomato. I started my invested journey reading books by Peter Lynch. One of the points he mentioned is catch the stocks of companies which we see is being used by many. With that aspect I thought usage of food delivery is phenomenal and they are to extend to smaller towns and expand across cities. With market corrections is time to buy Zomato or Swiggy for long term.

My personal opinion: Avoid

Just because some companies strongly resonate with us because of them being so called "household names", it doesn't automatically make their stocks as good long term bets. You can already see the balance sheets and P&L statements of these companies, and it's not impressive at all. You can dig into them for more details.

These aggregator companies are no moats, and the barrier of entry for any newcomer is very low. All it needs is one of the standard software/apps. The tie-ups with the restaurants is what might be a possible differentiator, but I don't see restaurants tying up only with the above companies, since they will try to latch on to any/every aggregator worth their name. Then, they are forced to give out massive discounts due to cut-throat competition.

Now you might say, great bluechips were once nobodies - true, but I personally don't see these companies getting elevated to that level any time soon, if at all.

[PearlJam]

While on the above topic, Zomato is all set to join the Nifty50 index tomorrow, whereas Britannia is set to exit, as part of the periodic rejig:

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/bu...-12975833.html

While I don't agree with this at all (removal of a consistent performer vs. addition of a whimsical one), it is what it is, and it's nothing new. This is the downside of using the free float market cap methodology to decide the index constituents.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

These aggregator companies are no moats, and the barrier of entry for any newcomer is very low. All it needs is one of the standard software/apps. The tie-ups with the restaurants is what might be a possible differentiator, but I don't see restaurants tying up only with the above companies, since they will try to latch on to any/every aggregator worth their name. Then, they are forced to give out massive discounts due to cut-throat competition.

Zomato's valuations are terrible (Rs. 200,000 cr marketcap ?!?) but the business itself is not too shabby.

1) Cash burn nature of the business itself is the moat and a barrier to entry. One needs to spend thousands of crores cash to gain marketshare in this space, and not many private equity investors or large corporations will be ready to do that.

2) It's a winner-take-all business and eventually there will be only 2 or 3 players.

3) Revenues are increasing 1.5x to 2x EVERY year. And the India-wide penetration is still low. Eventually, operating profit can touch 10%. So one needs to "imagine" Rs. 100,000 revenues and Rs. 10,000 cr operating profit in X years



4) Zero debt. Sitting on a cash pile of Rs. 15,000 cr!

5) Quick Commerce business BLINKIT might become big. Unlike DMart or Walmart or Reliance Fresh, there is very little real estate rental costs. Sure right now, losses are 2x revenues, but that's how Zomato business was earlier too. Q-Commerce (as it is called) is expected to be a $40 billion industry in India over the next 5 years.

However, there is lots of execution risk in reaching Rs. 100,000 cr revenues/Rs. 10,000 cr operating profit in X years. Even if execution is perfect, there is not much reward on the table, because its valuation is already Rs. 200,000 cr.

[spookey]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Zomato's valuations are terrible (Rs. 200,000 cr marketcap ?!?) but the business itself is not too shabby.

Smartcat any views on Delhivery , i now find it a value buy at these levels.

Anyone else tracking it please share our views.

Thanks

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by spookey

Smartcat any views on Delhivery , i now find it a value buy at these levels.

Similar story. High revenue growth "startup-like" company that is just turning a profit.



Delhivery seems like an asset heavy business (depreciation cost of Rs. 600 cr per year) though. They probably have to invest in trucks and warehouses.

While Rs. 20,000 cr marketcap seems reasonable (compared to Zomato's), we should compare it with other listed players like Blue Dart and see if it makes sense. List of all the logistics cos: https://www.screener.in/company/compare/00000036/

[FAIAAA]

Folks, Avoid at all costs! Till such time, they demonstrate sustainable, scalable and profitable business models.

Competition in Consumer facing industries is great news for Consumers, but lack of pricing power and profitable business models make them bad investment choices. Let me give you examples from 3 Industries -
1. Telecom - Think of all the telecom players in early 2000s - Essar, Reliance ( Anil Ambani) , Tata, Uninor and many more. Where are they now? Only Bharti Airtel has survived from that era.
2. Airlines - Same story - think of the numerous players who bit the dust - Air Deccan, Air Sahara, Modiluft, Damania, Jet Airways, Kingfisher, Go Air and many more.
3. Retail - Food world, Subhiksha, Bharti Retail, Big Bazaar and so on.

The other problem is Valuations. Even if one of them does turn out to be profitable over the years, their current valuation is so high that entry at these levels may not make a competitive return for the investor over next 5-10 years. ( Case in point - Infosys in 2001 had a 48 Billion dollar valuation. Currently it's around 80 billion odd. That's not a great return over 24 years if someone had invested at those levels in 2001. Infosys is a great /quality company. Lesson - no matter how great the company is, valuation and hence timing also matters, in order to make competitive returns)

On a separate note, if one doesn't have sufficient time and understanding of industries/cash flows/valuations etc, time to track real time events or their entry into and exit from stocks, it makes sense NOT to directly invest in stocks but go through active mutual funds run by professional managers who use their expertise plus AI to make investments. Another advantage is that you don't pay capital gain taxes and transactional charges on buying and selling of stocks by the mutual fund.

[jsl]

I invested in Zomato at an avg of 274 in October 2024 and currently it’s trading around 200. I am now stuck with this share. Any advice on what should I do next? Wait some time to cover up some loss and then exit or exit immediately?

[HRT_FPV]

Originally Posted by jsl

I invested in Zomato at an avg of 274 in October 2024 and currently it’s trading around 200. I am now stuck with this share. Any advice on what should I do next? Wait some time to cover up some loss and then exit or exit immediately?

It’s a loss only when you sell at a loss. Do you have any specific use for the money or a burning need? If the answer is no, I’d ask you to let it be.

If it was even a slightly educated bet on Zomato, then you shouldn’t be worried about the dips since the investment would’ve been made seeing a robust business, great promoters, etc. Or it was just a frenzied lust for profit.

There’s zero guarantee that the next asset is going to make you a profit. Soon, you’ll risk panic selling leading to capital erosion and destroying your portfolio.

If you really need the cash for an expense, consider a LAS. Don’t hurry for a sale now is what I’ll tell myself or anyone else too.

[whitewing]

Originally Posted by jsl

I invested in Zomato at an avg of 274 in October 2024 and currently it’s trading around 200. I am now stuck with this share. Any advice on what should I do next? Wait some time to cover up some loss and then exit or exit immediately?

If you believe the reasons you bought the shares are still valid, then there is no need to liquidate them.
From a tax efficiency perspective, consider booking the loss and repurchase the same the next day, that way, you would be able to knock off some tax out go against your capital gains.