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Old 1st August 2012, 19:09   #1
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Default July 2012 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis














NOTES:

1: Only cars that sell 500+ units (and thus, the relevant ones) have been included in the gainers & losers chart.

2. A big shout-out to Parrys for preparing these beautiful charts & graphs!

Last edited by GTO : 2nd August 2012 at 10:38.
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Old 1st August 2012, 19:11   #2
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Default Re: July 2012 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Not much of a month for foreign car manufacturers, with only Tata & Mahindra reporting a strong July 2012. In fact, the two Indian brands sold about as many cars as all the Korean, European & American manufacturers combined! It’s noteworthy to mention that UVs (MUVs & SUVs, both) are doing really well. UVs now outsell sedans by a full 6 market-share points! What’s more, 1 UV is sold for every 2 hatchbacks in India. Keep in mind that the average selling price of a UV is significantly higher than a hatchback, as are the profit margins.

The market’s net sales at 1.92 lakh cars are the lowest since October 2011.

• Unsurprisingly, Maruti records its lowest sales in a year too. I am shocked at how the market leader faces recurring labour issues! On the 18th of July, its Manesar factory stopped making cars (again), after an unfortunate dispute between management & factory workers (yet again!). The sooner Maruti solves the discrimination problem between contract & permanent workers, the better. The shutdown’s effect reflects only partially on the July 2012 numbers; however, unless Maruti gets out of this mess, August will be a disastrous month. The Ertiga records it’s highest ever sales in July with a whopping 7,000 shipments. The Swift & Dzire are No.2 & No.3 on the best sellers chart, despite supply restrictions from Manesar. The WagonR nudges the healthy 10K level for the 2nd month in a row. The Alto, however, completely slides, reflecting the sensitivity of the first-time car buyer to the economy. Remember, the Alto’s production is unaffected by the Manesar lockout.

• No major changes at Hyundai with the Verna & i20 performing exceptionally well in adverse market conditions. The Korean giant’s net volumes are taking a beating though, as volume sellers like the Eon & Santro slide below the 5K mark....recording their worst numbers of 2012. Times are bad for all of the entry “A” segment cars. As predicted, launching the new Sonata with a petrol-only engine menu was a terrible idea.

• Look who’s back at the No.3 spot : Tata Motors! And that’s with a 5,000 car lead over Mahindra. The Indica / Vista and the Indigo / Manza had an amazing month. These 4 cars are poised to make the most of the opportunity created by the Swift & Dzire’s supply issues. The Sumo is the other star, nearly touching the 4,000 level. Perhaps, there is a step up in the UV’s marketing activity in rural & semi-urban India. The Nano, like the other entry-level cars, is severely hit by market sentiment. The ageing Safari is feeling the heat from the Duster on one side, and the XUV on the other. Million $ question : When is the Storme going to be launched?

• Might be bad times for other car manufacturers, but not for Mahindra. The Bolero maintains its spectacular market run. What really amazes me though is the XUV500 bringing home its best ever sales & coming within an arm’s length of the Scorpio! There is a spike in the Verito’s numbers, but I don’t expect this to last. The sedan is just too old & cheap-feeling, facelift notwithstanding. The otherwise competent Xylo remains a mediocre performer by Mahindra UV standards.

• The Innova & Fortuner are Toyota’s stalwarts. The Etios does okay, but the Liva is clearly under severe pressure from more contemporary hatchbacks. The Corolla is the D2 sedan segment leader, yet only just. Incidentally, the new Camry is coming your way in August.

• The Beat diesel keeps Chevrolet’s cash registers ringing. Like other UVs, the Tavera also has a great month. The Chevrolet Cruze recently got an updated engine and enjoys a respectable position in the D1 segment. Other than this trio, it’s all downhill for Chevy. The Aveo, UVA and Optra (production ended due to zero demand) do miserably. What surprises me is the Spark; surely, this competent hatchback deserves to do better than just 500 odd cars? It’s outsold by the Fiat Punto! Chevrolet is going to be revamping its India portfolio soon. About time, I say. Phase out the old and bring in the new (please do NOT keep ageing duds concurrently on sale in the market).

• The Figo finds 4,700 homes, but July is a low point of 2012 for the Ford hatchback. The Fiesta Classic stays in the 4 digit zone for the 2nd month in a row, something that the new Fiesta can only dream about. The upcoming Figo facelift should rekindle interest in the hatchback.

• VW must be pleased with the Polo’s 3,500 factory dispatches. But that joy might be short-lived as the booted version (i.e. Vento) has its worst sales ever...a mere 1,546 cars out. The Vento’s sales are down a massive 40% M-O-M and 46% Y-O-Y. VW can’t blame it on the cheaper + identical Rapid which has had an equally bad month. The Vento is still a benchmark when it comes to all-rounded C2 segment sedans. I guess VW’s marketing department has its work cut out for itself. The Jetta outsells the Laura, although the new Passat isn’t going anywhere too soon.

• Honda’s Yo-Yo performance defies logic. The Brio & Jazz are competent products and so well-priced now; how is it that they aren’t up to the task of selling them? What poor performances, I say. The City is nowhere near the level that it once had a firm grip on. Honda India has gone off track, yes, but it’s just inexplicable how long they are taking to come back. Don’t blame it entirely on petrol prices either; remember, the i10 petrol (Brio competitor) and a good number of i20s (Jazz competitor) are doing reasonably well.

• The Sunny outsells its hatchback sibling by 2.5 times. Strange how the Micra has such few takers, despite a competent, fuel-efficient diesel engine. Not a good month for Nissan. Things will look up once the Evalia MUV is launched (soon), but the company needs to rejuvenate it’s Micra strategy.

• It surely seems like Skoda stuffed dealer pipelines last month. Their entire product range has a poor showing in July. Even dependable sellers like the Rapid, Laura & Superb record their worst month in the current year. Obviously, dealer yards don’t need new supplies from the factory.

• I had predicted how the Duster will change Renault India’s fortunes. The SUV’s production has barely begun and Renault has already left its usual company (Fiat & HM) way behind. The Duster has received over 12,000 bookings. In July alone, Renault sold about as many cars as it did in the previous 3 months combined. The situation will only improve once Duster production stabilizes at the 3,000 / month level. Renault might even overtake Nissan in India!

• Meanwhile, there is a party at HM celebrating the Pajero Sport’s sales. It even overtook the Ambassador!

Last edited by GTO : 2nd August 2012 at 10:16. Reason: As per PM
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Old 1st August 2012, 19:11   #3
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Last edited by GTO : 2nd August 2012 at 15:51.
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Old 1st August 2012, 19:12   #4
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Old 1st August 2012, 19:12   #5
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Old 1st August 2012, 19:23   #6
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Default Re: July 2012 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Never ceases to amaze me where all these Boleros are going. And this time they are in the top 5 - a first I guess.
Santro got cannibalised by its sibling Eon, which itself does not seem to be doing good (contrary to the expectation).

And good to see Tata bounce back to No.3 after losing the spot to M&M briefly. Sumos doing good, Ertigas & Innovas doing great. Add the Bolero and the XUV500/Scorpio and it looks like the Indian customer is heavily into SUVs/MUVs, while the bottom end of the market has lesser takers.

With 2 Kizashis sold in July all over India, nothing much to say about a good car screwed up by MSIL. And maybe there is truth in the rumours about 5L discount on the K.

Last edited by supremeBaleno : 1st August 2012 at 19:29.
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Old 1st August 2012, 19:31   #7
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Default Re: July 2012 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

GTO sir,

Bang on first day of the month. Thanks for the report. It is the most awaited report every month.

One Typo:

In the top losers chart, there are two entries for Swift. One at point 6 and one at point 8. Please check.

Thanks.
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Old 1st August 2012, 19:33   #8
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Default Re: July 2012 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Look where the Alto challenger Eon is languishing at. Whatever happened to the contemprary replacement? I think all it did was eat into the sales for Santro and possibly i10 with minimal impact to Alto.
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Old 1st August 2012, 19:33   #9
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Default Re: July 2012 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Thanks for the Awesome report as usual GTO, ON Time on 1st August.
Rating it with 5 stars as usual.

Honda Numbers (Model-wise) are missed out in the list, I scrolled a couple of additional times from top to bottom... I do see your comment about Brio and Jazz but don't see Jazz numbers (Brio is 1715). Can you please mention the Jazz numbers for July 2012? Happy that Jazz is not appearing in "Top Losers" list though.

Last edited by Mister_M : 1st August 2012 at 19:35.
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Old 1st August 2012, 19:54   #10
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Default Re: July 2012 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Great report and on time too! Interesting to see the Polo numbers this month, may be VW is also trying to stuff its dealers like Skoda did. On the other hand, Vento despatches are a shocker! Is it the 'Sunny' effect ?

As always,Hyundai stars i20 and Verna seem to be unaffected by the overall drop in sales for the industry.

I seriously wonder why the Jazz isn't doing any better after the price cut. Last year Honda was affected by floods in Thailand, they should market it more may be. Less said about Civic numbers the better.

With the increase in UV sales, ACI had an interesting article on how the third bench is unsafe in case of a rear impact, looks like our market is unaware or doesn't care about it.
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Old 1st August 2012, 19:54   #11
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Default Re: July 2012 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Thanks GTO for the analysis!

The strangest of figures are probably from the VW group. More than 50% decline for the whole Skoda range, and VW brand is kind of saved by the positive trend by Polo and the stable Jetta.

Surprisingly the Civic has shown a big improvement compared to previous months. Probably buyers got an air of the fact that Honda is in no rush to bring in the new Civic here.
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Old 1st August 2012, 19:57   #12
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Default Re: July 2012 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Nice balanced round up !what beats me is the fall for Maruti ECO from good 4K numbers to a mere 900ish for July'12.
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Old 1st August 2012, 20:09   #13
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Default Re: July 2012 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

On the dot ! Thanks for the excellent Analysis ! Of late I have been waiting to see this every month.

- The 'Monsoon Exchange Offer' gave Tata a good Jul-12. What would the Aug-12 act be to keep the numbers up ? Maruti's woes might continue to help though.
- Skoda has just increased prices. What would Aug-12 look like ?
- VW had pretty good offers this month(atleast on the Vento). Wonder why the numbers went down further(except for the Polo)?

Hope we might see the Duster cloud settle down & Normalcy back in the 8-12 Lakhs segments(C1,C2,D1,D2,UV)

Last edited by DieselDon : 1st August 2012 at 20:17.
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Old 1st August 2012, 20:34   #14
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Default Re: July 2012 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Brilliant - i was just waiting for it from the morning in anticipation

Surprised to see both siblings Vento and Rapid fare so poorly this month, Vento already is having 1st year insurance free offer (we also got it) whereas there is nothing on Rapid which closes the gap between two by a huge margin. Skoda may offer it too if this continues this month, Polo has had a stupendous month, that 3 pot is doing too good.

Swift is sliding down, the waitings have gone done, VDI was readily available last month, maruti needs to do something.
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Old 1st August 2012, 20:37   #15
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Default Re: July 2012 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Thanks for the numbers and excellent analysis GTO !!!!
I feel sorry for Fiat, I dont know how can they survive if they sell <1000 cars per month!
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