[Slick]

It's a great initiative, A bullet train in India .

Who would benefit the from this? Whether the commercial travel in the corridor warrants such an investment, instead of improved rail service ?

These are some of the questions that come to mind.

The ticket price for me will be the clincher, since it requires it's own tracks the maintenance would be high, translating into high ticket costs.
The staff maintaining the setup will also be highly skilled & expensive, one assumes.

Would a lot of people travelling in that corridor be able to afford such tickets ?
I don't know the answer, but I think that would decide it's success.

Also in a country where people throw rods on tracks to cause disaster, I hope the bullet train tracks are not accessible to the antisocial elements.

Let's hope for the best

- Slick

[SILVERWOOD]

India is a vast and densely populated country with relatively equal distribution of wealth and this is a great recipe for HSR network to thrive.

I will try to jot down few points that are crossing my mind.

1, No more hassles of security checks unlike airports.
2, No cutoff time for boarding unlike airports.You can turn up at the railway station minutes before departure.
3, One can carry decent amount of luggage unlike airlines which charge an arm and a leg for anything over 15kg.
4, Railway stations are generally located at the heart of the city so that you get to save on travel time and money that you normally incur on Ola/Uber.
5, 50% cost of the airfare.
6, Comfortable seats.
7, You can "hopefully" carry your own food and water.
8, Most importantly, Charge your mobile phones.

Waseem.

[phamilyman]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

In any case, any new technology is always met with howls. At least the Japs are having an impeccable safety record. I have heard talk about the Chinese- well they are doing well but India - China have enough safety related issues in telecom.

Being ultra flippant for a minute, I would have preferred the Chinese in this case.

Thus, in the event of war (never unlikely over a 50 year tenure), the Pakis will not bomb this railway ever - they will not hurt their masters' investments!

Best insurance policy ever!

[sathish81]

Originally Posted by SILVERWOOD

India is a vast and densely populated country with relatively equal distribution of wealth and this is a great recipe for HSR network to thrive.

I will try to jot down few points that are crossing my mind.

1, No more hassles of security checks unlike airports.
2, No cutoff time for boarding unlike airports.You can turn up at the railway station minutes before departure.
3, One can carry decent amount of luggage unlike airlines which charge an arm and a leg for anything over 15kg.
4, Railway stations are generally located at the heart of the city so that you get to save on travel time and money that you normally incur on Ola/Uber.
5, 50% cost of the airfare.
6, Comfortable seats.
7, You can "hopefully" carry your own food and water.
8, Most importantly, Charge your mobile phones.

Waseem.

Other than cost,mobile charging and comfortable seats none of the other points can be true.

[sandeepmohan]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

This line will be ready in around 5 years.

That sounds like a target of 100km of elevated track to be built in a year. Phew!

[GrammarNazi]

Originally Posted by SILVERWOOD

India is a vast and densely populated country with relatively equal distribution of wealth and this is a great recipe for HSR network to thrive...

On the contrary, inequality in income distribution is quite shockingly high and comparable to the 1920's.

The Hindu
Livemint

To recover the cost, India will need to have sufficient number of people in that location who'll regularly use the bullet train for commute. Rules will need to be made & imposed making it very very tough to not choose this mode.

[Saanil]

I am not sure if this has been shared but IIMA had come out with a report on bullet train feasibility as reported by a news portal (source). Few highlights from the article (from April 2016) below:

1. The proposed bullet train between Mumbai and Ahmedabad will have to ferry 88,000-118,000 passengers per day, or undertake 100 trips daily, for the Railways to keep it financially viable

2. Report states that if the Railways set the ticket price at Rs 1500 per person for 300-km drive, then fifteen years after the operation it will have to ferry between 88,000 and 110,000 passengers every day to ensure that it repays the loans with interest on time.

3. Typically one train carries 800 passengers, so to carry 88,000 passengers daily, you will need to take a total of 100 trips, or 50 trips each way. So, we need three trains every hour in each direction," he said.

4. As per the paper, "there are many positive benefits and externalities of the HSR which would be useful in India's overall aspirational development."

It will be interesting to read the research paper.

[ksameer1234]

Originally Posted by Saanil

Report states that if the Railways set the ticket price at Rs 1500 per person for 300-km drive

The fare for Executive Chair Car of Shatabdi on the route is Rs. 1900. Why would bullet train fare be less than that? Bullet trains offer same time advantage of flight so I would rather like to believe fares to be close to that, which is between 2-3k. Add to that, 3k for bullet train will give a far more comfortable journey than economy class flight.

[Saanil]

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

The fare for Executive Chair Car of Shatabdi on the route is Rs. 1900. Why would bullet train fare be less than that? Bullet trains offer same time advantage of flight so I would rather like to believe fares to be close to that, which is between 2-3k. Add to that, 3k for bullet train will give a far more comfortable journey than economy class flight.

Maybe. I am just putting out the assumptions as used in the IIMA analysis. If we assume that the ticket price is Rs 3000 per person (double the value assumed in the report), roughly the number of trips should reduce by half right which means 50 trips daily, or 25 trips each way.

If this rough target is not reached, it means the government will have to infuse some money for paying the loans rather than the project being self sufficient.

[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by Saanil

I am not sure if this has been shared but IIMA had come out with a report on bullet train feasibility as reported by a news portal (source). Few highlights from the article (from April 2016) below:

1. The proposed bullet train between Mumbai and Ahmedabad will have to ferry 88,000-118,000 passengers per day, or undertake 100 trips daily, for the Railways to keep it financially viable

2. Report states that if the Railways set the ticket price at Rs 1500 per person for 300-km drive, then fifteen years after the operation it will have to ferry between 88,000 and 110,000 passengers every day to ensure that it repays the loans with interest on time.

3. Typically one train carries 800 passengers, so to carry 88,000 passengers daily, you will need to take a total of 100 trips, or 50 trips each way. So, we need three trains every hour in each direction," he said.

4. As per the paper, "there are many positive benefits and externalities of the HSR which would be useful in India's overall aspirational development."

It will be interesting to read the research paper.

First of all, such large public sector investments are not meant to be profitable. Delhi Metro was built for public good and was not never meant to pay back the investment of 20 to 30 billion US $. Today it has lead to a revolution in how people live, travel and work in Delhi and has led to metros being built and planned in over a dozen other cities in India We are even consulting with other nations on their metro networks. Do we get back the investments made in so many roads, highways and expressways? No. They are meant to stimulate the economy and reap incremental benefits.

Coming to this study, you have to look at the total 50 year time period. Today, the ticket can be priced at 3000 Rs. By the time the train is launched, Rs 5000 would likely be the norm due to the constant rise in prices. Ten years from today, the ticket can easily be 10,000 and fifty years later, even 100,000 Rs for a ticket might seem cheap. Hence the calculations have to keep this factor in mind. Payback for the loan is just around $ 1 million per day. 10,000 passengers a day would be enough at Rs 5,000 per ticket at the start. In ten years from today, you would need just 5,000 passengers a day. Of course there are other costs such as maintenance but there might be additional revenue from retail sales, advertising and sponsorship as well. In any case, the sum of 15 billion $ for construction is so small for a nation like India. The government should simply pay it and forget it. We spend 45 billion $ each year on defence and that figure grows each passing year. All the train needs to do is to make enough money to run its ongoing opertions just like Delhi Metro does.

[ksameer1234]

Originally Posted by Saanil

I am just putting out the assumptions as used in the IIMA analysis.

This and this is the analysis paper which I could find. I have only given a cursory look but I could not find anything about the leasing of land (particularly stations) and other advertising revenues in trains as well as outside. This may not be a significant number but will contribute to earnings nevertheless. Also, by the time project becomes operational in 2023, we may have flight fares at around 4k now from the currently 3k.

[hybridpetrol]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

First of all, such large public sector investments are not meant to be profitable. Delhi Metro was built for public good and was not never meant to pay back the investment of 20 to 30 billion US $. Today it has lead to a revolution in how people live, travel and work in Delhi and has led to metros being built and planned in over a dozen other cities in India We are even consulting with other nations on their metro networks. Do we get back the investments made in so many roads, highways and expressways? No. They are meant to stimulate the economy and reap incremental benefits.

Completely agree with this viewpoint!
Majority of the state run bus transport corporations are making heavy losses each year - Yet still, buses are sent to even remotest villages and new routes are added now and then.
Indian Railways is showing huge operational losses each year. The losses are primarily due to the low fares. Yet still trains are running every day with several junctions too busy to serve no more additional trains.
Economic development of a country is achieved by building infrastructure, and one cannot expect economic viability in each. While a private institution would do a calculation before starting a project, the Government need not do the same, because, a Government's job is to safeguard nation's interest by putting safety and comfort of its citizens as its first, and ROI is not one of the top priorities.
We need to remember the Government always has funding through its important sources: taxes.

[Maveryq]

The debate is extremely interesting and I am really enjoying the points raised. I thought it would benefit if I added the criticism that was laid against the Mumbai Pune Expressway when it was first envisaged.

"To the travelling public, tired of traffic bottlenecks, the idea of a six-lane expressway between Mumbai and Pune seemed to be a godsend. But soon there was opposition to the project. According to its critics, its main promise, that of cutting down travelling time and eliminating traffic jams, is an exaggerated claim and its utility does not match the investment and destruction associated with it."

Source:http://www.frontline.in/static/html/fl1714/17140380.htm

This article was written in July,2000.


There are several parallels with the current discussion. And it makes for a compelling reading.

Samir Mehta of Bombay Environmental Action Group (BEAG) had stated that the journey time was long because of traffic within cities and the expressway would not address this problem. He asked - Why should a new road be built when the existing road suffices? Why should the public pay a toll to use a new road when the old road was toll-free? If indeed infrastructure development does call for collecting toll from users for improved services, then why are investors not being invited to improve the existing NH 4 ? The BEAG suggested that "instead of developing a new expressway, the existing NH 4 can easily be widened all the way from Panvel to Dehu Road.

Responding to the claims, S.S. Momin, Chief Engineer of the Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation (MSRDC), said: "Our planning is done thinking 30 years ahead".

Amazing to see similar arguments being put forward now against the HSR.

I would also suggest that this document about HSR in China be read.

http://documents.worldbank.org/curat...final000EN.pdf

HSR has an impact on property values. That would increase government revenues exponentially along the route.

Please read these reports also.

https://www.morganstanley.com/views/...Speed_Rail.pdf


https://www.ara.net.au/sites/default...AL-Feb2012.pdf

HSR will depend a lot upon execution in India. If it succeeds, it will change the Indian transport landscape and significantly help in addressing overcrowded cities.

[bullock-Car]

This project is not buying a train, but involves dealing with modern technologies. This will have cascading and spillover effect similar to Maruti effect spawing a range of industries. China had used FDI and newer technology and hugely benefitted. Only we should have a vision for a network of routes for high speed trains and start putting one by one.

[karthik_tp]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

We can't apply today's metrics and today's solutions to the future. Otherwise we wouldn't have computers, the internet, airports or expressways until everyone is rich and there is no poverty remaining.

Very nicely put. As a developing economy, we have to encourage these projects with open arms. The benefit in future will be multi-fold. There is no denying that poverty in this country be eliminated. Just that, it does not mean we have to wait for introducing the advanced technologies in our country.