[saurabh2711]

Extract from WIKIPEDIA:
Few points highlighted as some benefits (already discussed) that we might fetch out of this. Worth Noticing & point of discussion.

I am aware that Data on WIKI can also be incorrect. Hence please pardon my ignorance.

Doesn't this looks like a PPP model?

An MoU was signed by the governments of India and Japan on 12 December 2015. The Ministry of Railways, based on the recommendation of the NITI Aayog, announced that Shinkansen technology would be adopted for the line, with technology transfer to support the Make in India programme. Japan would also provide staff training.[19] In January 2016, the Ministry of Railways fast tracked the project and set up a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) named the National High Speed Rail Corporation Limited to build and operate the corridor. The company was registered in January 2016 in the name of Indian Railways. It was planned for the company to eventually be made into a joint venture with equity participation of the Maharashtra and Gujarat governments. The Public sector company is expected to build and also carry out train operations.[20][21] The Ministry of Railways, the National High-Speed Rail Corporation (NHSRC) and JICA signed an tripartite consultancy agreement in December 2016 to implement the project. The NHSRC is a new agency floated to implement the project. A joint venture between Japan International Consultants for Transportation Co (JIC), Nippon Koei Co, and Oriental Consultants Global Co. Ltd. was appointed as the general consultants for the project,[22] and prepared design documents, bidding documents and technical standards and specifications for the project.[18]

In late 2016, JICA awarded the detailed design study for the project to a consortium led by Japan International Consultants for Transportation (JIC), a subsidiary of East Japan Railway, West Japan Railway and the Tokyo Metro. The study formally began in March 2017. JIC will forecast demand, set fares and devise a train operation plan, handle preliminary design work for structures such as tunnels and bridges, and draw up an overall construction schedule. Japan International Consultants for Transportation (JIC) Project Manager stated that "conditions surrounding the construction of a high-speed railway in India - such as weather, which is harsh there, and the quality and standards of materials - are considerably different from those in Japan. So we are now comparing and adjusting to these technical matters." Japanese public and private sector companies conducted training programs for railway staff in India. JIC stated that the local expertise in India gained from constructing and operating various rapid transit systems could be utilized for the high speed rail project. Japan also provided training to Indian Railway Ministry officials, some of whom studied in government-sponsored programs at graduate schools in Japan. India and Japan signed an agreement to establish an HSR Training Institute in India by 2020 to train railway staff in high speed rail operations.[23]

Another interesting article found on TOI:

http://indianexpress.com/article/ind...ble-ac-i-fare/

The debate on this page is also on same lines as ours. . But the contents have no regulations.

Originally Posted by Col Mehta

While I'm very happy and equally excited to see bullet train coming (finally) to our country, I just hope and pray to God that it doesn't meet the same fate as that poor Tejas Express had to see. ...

+1 to your comments. Something that supports what you have written & shows the attitude of the Public, for the public property : In the following news article:

http://www.businesstoday.in/latest/t...ry/259933.html

Walls defaced & 20 KG tobacco on Lucknow Metro - Day1?? Though it also says, people were cooperative & were unaware of the fact of the ban.

Regards,
Saurabh

[A M]

Not taking any sides but just trying to bring another perspective to the conversation.

Wouldn't we like de-congested cities?

Lets take an example. A lot of people from Chandigarh are living in Delhi for work. This means a net increase in the population of Delhi, more traffic on Delhi roads, more congestion. If they can travel to their office in Delhi from Chandigarh in around an hour and a half, they may, well, travel every morning from their place and enjoy better living conditions (looking at Delhi's air quality) than in Delhi and still have a similar duration for their daily commute as they had while living within Delhi. Not to mention, smaller towns do have parks and play grounds not very far away and kids can enjoy their cricket and football too.

[prasathlr]

Originally Posted by A M

Not taking any sides but just trying to bring another perspective to the conversation.

Wouldn't we like de-congested cities?

Lets take an example. A lot of people from Chandigarh are living in Delhi for work. This means a net increase in the population of Delhi, more traffic on Delhi roads, more congestion. If they can travel to their office in Delhi from Chandigarh in around an hour and a half, they may, well, travel every morning from their place and enjoy better living conditions (looking at Delhi's air quality) than in Delhi and still have a similar duration for their daily commute as they had while living within Delhi. Not to mention, smaller towns do have parks and play grounds not very far away and kids can enjoy their cricket and football too.

This logic would work only if the ticket prices are very affordable. With present ticket price prediction hovering around Rs. 3500 - 4000, it is almost impossible to have this kind of luxury even after 10-20 years.

[kiranton]

While Govt says the train can cover the distance in 2 hours, in reality it might take over 3 hours. I have travelled by the bullet train from Kyoto - Tokyo, which is roughly 500 kms with 2 stops. It took me around 2.5hours. The top speed was 220 kms during the journey. Let's take Mumbai-Ahd which is about 500kms apart. Each stop will take 5 mins when you consider the time for deceleration, stationary time at the station and acceleration. And there are reports of 12 stations in between. So you lose an hour here. And once the train reaches Borivali, it has to slow down considerably. So in my estimate, the train would roughly take 3.5 hours. It's still a better option to air travel and regular trains.

[A M]

Originally Posted by prasathlr

This logic would work only if the ticket prices are very affordable. With present ticket price prediction hovering around Rs. 3500 - 4000, it is almost impossible to have this kind of luxury even after 10-20 years.

I totally agree with you. But, Well!! We gotta start somewhere.

[pradyblr]

Originally Posted by rrsteer

Can anyone make me understand what does the Japanese government/ economy gain by making this investment. Also will they get a share of revenues from the project?

My take
Interest rates in Japan are negative or close to zero. They will lend to anyone who gives more than zero. No surprise there.

For me the geopolitical factors in this makes fascinating thinking.

the deal is entirely on yen. As you might know all foreign exchange happens in usd globally
Could be a start neutralize all yuan based transactions China is doing in Africa.
Expect to see more of these in future ?

[boohooper]

I got this on a Whatsapp Group and so do not stake any claim on the calculations. Here goes....

BULLET TRAIN.
Max Capacity : 1200
HIgest Fare : Rs. 5000
One trip revenue : Rs. 60 Lakhs
NUmber of trains ( unknown)

(Assume each train will make 5 trips a day ie.

3 Hours Travel time
1 hour House Keeping
4 hours Maintenance, Minimum 2 trains)

Number of Maximum trips per day ( with 2 trains) : 10
Max Revenue Per Day Rs. 6 Crores
Max Revenue Per Year Rs. 2190 Crores

Profit @ 20% Rs. 438 Crores
Tot Investement : Rs. 1.1 Lakh crore

Number of years required to pay Investment back : 251 Years.

Even if the profit was doubled it could take upwards of 100 years. Corrections and views welcome.

Arigatogozaimashita!

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by boohooper

Max Revenue Per Year Rs. 2190 Crores
Profit @ 20% Rs. 438 Crores

Operating profits are likely to be in 60% plus range because they don't use diesel fuel. I think Delhi Metro (with tiny ticket size) has 30% operating profits.

Originally Posted by boohooper

Corrections and views welcome.

CNBC TV18's estimates - the project is likely to be profitable in the 6th year.



The key assumptions are -

- 30% of those who use public transport (air, train, bus) shift to High Speed Train. I guess this is where the estimates are way too optimistic.
- Average ticket size is Rs. 3,000 to 3,500
- Rupee depreciates at the rate of 2% per year against the Yen, but is recovered by ticket price hike.
- Depreciation of Rs. 2,400 cr per year

Watch the full video here:
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/bus...y-2387967.html

[sindabad.sailor]

To me it brings in an era of thinking big.

I think it is time to come out of just-fit-for-purpose-is-sufficient mindset. I would prefer that administration dreams of building a Petronas Towers like buildings than yet another current type of ONGC building.

Tight project timelines in today's world of professional project management can be achievable.

Lot of numbers being churned here and social media.

Before committing to any such mega projects, all the stakeholders carry out a Financial Risk Assessment. It might be called by different names in different industries but the concept is very much in practice and relevant everywhere and hence safely assume that the economics behind this is vetted by some knowledgeable people.

Agree that there are lot of other priorities as well. But then there are different departments to cater to it. The resistance on lines that if PWD doesn't work well, we will not let HEALTH, EDUCATION, RAILWAYS departments to function well as well is slightly myopic IMO.

Can only wish good luck and success to the project.

[rrsteer]

Originally Posted by phamilyman

Two issues:
a. Forex risk

Originally Posted by smartcat

- Rupee depreciates at the rate of 2% per year against the Yen, but is recovered by ticket price hike.

Don't think rupee depreciation is a risk. Long term, rupee will appreciate based on the steady increase in productivity, and the steady flows into India as it becomes the growth centre of the world.

At the same time, long term, Japan will be on a steady decline, as its savings surpluses reverse and its government monetises its debt to infinity. The yen is bound to drop off a cliff when the world realises that the Japanese government will never be able to service its debt and is basically like Greece but masquerading as the world's biggest creditor nation.

I think the risk are else where. Having used Shinkansen frequently in Japan, I feel its not as suited to Indian conditions as being visualized. With all the hype, this project can turn out to be a big glaring failure or a white elephant. Resulting as a Waterloo of sorts for the present administration - which will be a shame really. But if it does succeed, it is certainly going to be a huge mindset change for our country as a whole.

[Col Mehta]

Originally Posted by saurabh2711

+1 to your comments. Something that supports what you have written & shows the attitude of the Public, for the public property : In the following news article:

http://www.businesstoday.in/latest/t...ry/259933.html

Walls defaced & 20 KG tobacco on Lucknow Metro - Day1?? Though it also says, people were cooperative & were unaware of the fact of the ban.

Regards,
Saurabh

Very unfortunate and that's what really concerns me. And honestly, I don't really see any point building those bullet trains or Metro trains or whatever for people like our countrymen who seem alien to being civil. The government, first, needs to bring people to a certain level where they can at least appreciate and respect public property and have some civic sense. And it is indeed a difficult task at hand because unlike people in developed countries, we don't have 'inbuilt' honesty and sense of consideration towards others (not trying to be funny here but a bitter truth it is - look at the level of corruption to gauge dishonesty and our roads which are filled with inconsiderate morons).

Unless some radical changes are introduced (read: forced), the situation wouldn't really change a lot and we would keep looking like a bunch of unruly and uncivilized lot, regardless of how fast our trains are.

[smooth indian]

Originally Posted by abhishek46

Everything looks good. On Paper.

The deadline of 2022 is looking a bit too optimistic, laying 200+KM of HSR track, in a country like India in no easy task.

more than 80% of the land needed has been acquired. The terrain is mostly flat with only a long underground tunnel under Mumbai, Thane and the ulhas river. So it shouldn't take ages to complete.

[thorque]

The Japanese are shrewd businessman imo,the much touted and virtually interest free loan,might well be mere window dressing.Does anyone know, precisely what the Jap's could be making on this project?(their mark up,that is).
Previous Indian regimes have been known to inflate costs,for reasons hanky-panky.The current dispensation hasn't evinced any graft though,but their spin-doctor/packaging skills so far,are impeccable.

[norhog]

Like I have stated before I am not affiliated to any political organization and am purely a car, train, plane and technology fan. These days it is common to associate technology to everything computer, in my head I don't. For me technology is appreciated in its physical form not virtual form. Having said that all this debate on our country's new acquisition, I whole heartedly support it.

If we look at the political angle from an independent perspective our political parties do help out in big unfinished projects even though there is a management change i.e change of political party at the center. Examples PM A.B.Vajpai's four landing of NH was carried on by the next government in power, the Congress. Another example GST was mooted in the era of Congress and implemented now. So what ever is on the surface or in media there seems to be some unified vision at the top. This is my opinion.

Next we are two countries in one. On one hand we have the people who are educated and earn at par or more than those in the developed world. Another we have people rolling in poverty. The first lot's population combined in Maharashtra and Gujarat only (I am not even venturing south) could be more than the population of a small first world country. Coming to expenditures part, this money is being loaned, so we are not implementing this at the cost of something else, like other poverty alleviation projects. They are in place and will keep on continuing.

The coming of bullet train as I see it is the laying of extra set of tracks. They are standard gauge which is popular world over. Mind you Broad gauge is not that popular world over and exists mostly in Indian subcontinent. So who says we need to run only pointy nosed Japanese Shinkansen on them? We can run slower trains in off peak time. They could be sourced from any where in the world, example that immediately comes to mind, TALGO. Just like in Japan we have NOZOMI, fastest service which is point to point like Tokyo to Nagoya and then Kyoto.

I.E they stop at bigger stations. Then there are Kodama and Hikari service stopping at stations in between. So when a Kodama or a Hikari train is stopped at a smaller station, which is a siding line from the main line, the Nozomi express can be seen zooming by. When the Nozomi passes away the slower one gets going changing line and coming back to the main line. This process is repeated at subsequent stations.Well the Hikari and Kodama need not be Shinkansen train sets but locally made aluminium bodied trains or something like Talgo, or some other maker running at about 200kmph. Mind you our Indian made bogies are already rated at 160 Kmph so it is just over burdened infrastructure that stops it from maintaining its top speed continuously.So please let this capacity augmentation take place.

Next not all passengers will be traveling from Mumbai to Amhedabad. There will be substantial number of persons willing to take the service in between the stations. There is always talk about comparison of air fare between end to end stations, what about some one traveling Surat to say Thane. The time savings for him or her will be enormous. Finally the tracks as I like to call them, can be used for distribution perishable items like milk, vegetables and fruits , delivering them quickly from/to consumption centers in the places between big cities. The Shinkansens can easily be made to deliver post and courier to various stations there by making possible, same day delivery for courier to anywhere between Mumbai and Amhedabad.

Then there is talk about running trains of private companies using time slots. Same can be done for light goods being transported quickly across the subcontinent. We are starting off from a clean slate here so possibilities are endless if implemented in a planned, logical manner.

We desperately need capacity argumentation so the BG lines together with HS line with mixing and matching can serve the entire cross section of our population.

[nthakral]

Transportation sector is the major gateway to economic growth and projects like these are definitely going to help the country in long term. There will always be a significant chunk of riders who will be willing to shell out extra money for the comfort and quick journey offered by bullet trains. Additionally, loan terms offered by Japan look really lucrative and I believe bullet trains will be accepted by masses.
Only thing which bothers me is the maintenance of these trains. Considering the lack of civic sense that prevails in India at all levels, strong measures need to be put into place to ensure that these bullet trains do not face the same fate as what happened with Tejas Express.