[norhog]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

There is considerable merit in the criticism of this project being expressed again now in light of the tragedy of the stampede at a railway station in Mumbai yesterday: that long delayed upgrades of existing infrastructure don't find the equally necessary money/attention, while glamour projects do.

The approach seems common to every kind of public spending/projects. This comes from some kind of wishful thinking that the existing nation and its tens of millions of struggling poor/unemployed have magically disappeared to give some illusion of a clean slate to write on, based on which the minority of the well to do - including the moneyed middle class like all of us here on this forum - dream of how we now are a superpower or will be so in as short a time as a decade.

The stampede and bullet trains are completely two different issue.
This is a inter city transportation system. This should have been augmented long time back by building metro and additional infrastructure. Since this was not built the entire city crams up into 4 tracks each on CR and WR.
Bullet train is a inter city transportation system that will give high speed connectivity to all towns on the track. These are the towns where planes do not fly. There is no aircraft currently flying between Surat and Vadodara for example. Also by way of tech transfer we will have capabilities to build HSR.
The scene is such that something happens any where every one is ready to pounce on the government and bullet train, where as there was not so much as a murmur before when scams were taking place and prices were increasing without job creation.
Come on guys please analyze logically.

[Sawyer]

In the days before the French revolution, Marie Antoinette, Queen of France, went down in history because she is said to have said of the poor: If they can't get bread, why don't they eat cake?

She also lost her head soon after.

[vinit]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

In the days before the French revolution, Marie Antoinette, Queen of France, went down in history because she is said to have said of the poor: If they can't get bread, why don't they eat cake?

She also lost her head soon after.

Totally agreed. The leaders who align their vision with country's vision, become visionary leaders and those who try to align country's vision to their vision, become versions of Mary Antoinette.

It's really sad and unfortunate that 23 fellow citizens lost their lives for the lack of a very very basic infrastructure.

This is a vicious cycle. To fund this "dream project" of bullet train, central and state governments will migrate the budget allotted to basic infrastructure schemes to this glamorous scheme. Basic things will keep on deteriorating and will keep on claiming lives of the common people of this country.

In a country like india, Top - Down approach for growth has rarely worked. Growth should always take Bottom - Up approach to include all sections of society. The perspective should be, rather than giving one top class thing to handful of people, give many basic things in top class fashion to everyone. Spend money on basic things first. Once they are right, we'll definitely welcome bullet train.

We seriously need to set our priorities right.

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

In the days before the French revolution, Marie Antoinette, Queen of France, went down in history because she is said to have said of the poor: If they can't get bread, why don't they eat cake?

She also lost her head soon after.

Don't underestimate the "intelligence" of the Indian voter. Time and again we have shown that religion, cast, hyperboles and money is all you need to win an election. We are a country in which we kill people over whats app forwards!

I havent read about the french revolution but I wonder if they were ever so obtuse in their civilization.

[Sawyer]

Originally Posted by extreme_torque

Don't underestimate the "intelligence" of the Indian voter. Time and again we have shown that religion, cast, hyperboles and money is all you need to win an election. We are a country in which we kill people over whats app forwards!

Take the case of every country that is doing well for its citizens today; each has gone through multiple trials by fire in its recent past that forged the national character. Trials that did not spare any segment of the population where every segment made large sacrifices of life, limb and loss of standard of living for many years, even for an entire generation.

We haven't. Even the British, as colonial masters go, were not as harsh as others. Had the Germans been in their place at the times the British were, Gandhi would have been lined up against the wall and shot dead early in his political career.

In that sense we have been fortunate, but I wonder if that fortune has unfortunate consequences for us today.

Or maybe the trial by fire is to still come. That is my expectation.

[Sawyer]

And now, assuming it is correctly quoted, the usual bombastic statement by the railway minister:
""Every commuter of Mumbai Suburban is as important as a Rajdhani passenger and should be treated like one," Mr Goyal told officials at Saturday's meeting that tweaked procedures to cut delays in execution of plans."

Seriously? Do you, Mr Minister, realise the implications of this statement if it is a truthfully meant one? Of all that needs to be done for it to be proven to be more than just hot air?

9 people on an average die on Mumbai suburban every day for years now, so this stampede, that harvested less than a three days toll of Indian lives, is all it takes to decide to execute plans to bring this toll down to the average per day loss of life on all Rajdhani trains in India? Given that there are 365 days in a year, that toll has to be less than a person a day.

Does the man realise what it will take to truly achieve this reduction? Building bullet trains is child's play compared to this.

PS: I don't recall which political leader had touted the "Mumbai to be the next Singapore" vision a few years ago. It doesn't matter which party he came from, they are all different flavours of the same lousy ice cream, but the state of affairs in Mumbai, with what happens in the monsoons, and this situation as another example is something that every Indian should throw back in our leaders faces when they talk irresponsibly. And go forth with irresponsible new projects leaving existing promises shamelessly forgotten. Just as shamelessly as they praise the "Spirit of Mumbai" every time the city copes with some tragedy on account of their sins of omission and commission.

[ksameer1234]

Originally Posted by Sawyer

""Every commuter of Mumbai Suburban is as important as a Rajdhani passenger and should be treated like one," Mr Goyal told officials at Saturday's meeting that tweaked procedures to cut delays in execution of plans."

While it would have been political suicide but since I don't survive on people voting for me, it would have been prudent if Railway Minister added every commuter of Mumbai Suburban "traveling with valid ticket" because:

In August 2017, Central Railway (CR) has registered 2.08 lakh cases of ticketless travelling

Western Railway (WR) registered 86,909 cases

Source: http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/...le19656796.ece

While we have come to expect safer and faster services, we are unwilling to pay for those. On previous page, I mentioned how suburban trains in Mumbai are ridiculously cheap. With such meagre earnings and rampant pilferage due to ticketless travel, no wonder Railways is failing to keep up with the growing demand.

[sathish81]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/thai...-china-1723904

5.5 billion for 3000 kms
17 billion for 500 Km

Jap technology can't be that expensive compared to Chinese. Mother of all scams in making ?

[Nissan1180]

Originally Posted by sathish81

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/thai...-china-1723904

5.5 billion for 3000 kms
17 billion for 500 Km

Jap technology can't be that expensive compared to Chinese. Mother of all scams in making ?

I read the news on another site. It says that this is the cost of the first 250 kilometers. That means the total might be around 11 billion.

I've used the monorail in Kuala Lumpur and that's when I realized how important it is to get the best when it comes to public infrastructure. The monorail is so horrible that you'd prefer walking to using it. It vibrates, makes scary noises while in motion and has a rated passenger capacity that makes it more suited for an amusement park. I felt the same while using the Metro in Bangkok. The stations are horribly designed and the trains are really, really bad when you compare them to what's on offer in Singapore or even Delhi. The cost of running a bad train is same as a good one- so it makes more sense to spend more in the beginning and keep passengers happy for generations to come.

Coming back to the point about whether the bullet train is needed at all, I'm not sure. It may be needed but not between Ahmedabad and Mumbai. Real estate prices will fall if there's a station nearby. The noise is too high to make healthy living possible.

[ksameer1234]

Originally Posted by sathish81

5.5 billion for 3000 kms
17 billion for 500 Km

Jap technology can't be that expensive compared to Chinese. Mother of all scams in making ?

The article conveniently doesn't mention that this is only for first phase of the project which is 250 kms. So the cost should actually be read:

5.5 billion for 250 kms
17 billion for 500 Km

China and Thailand agreed on Wednesday that the first phase of a planned high-speed railway project will cost 179 billion baht ($5.15 billion)

The first phase will focus on a 250 km (155 miles) track from Bangkok to the northeastern Thai province of Nakhon Ratchasima

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN11R0Q1

Edit: Already clarified above by Nissan1180. Mods may delete this post if required.

[sathish81]

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

The article conveniently doesn't mention that this is only for first phase of the project which is 250 kms. So the cost should actually be read:

5.5 billion for 250 kms
17 billion for 500 Km

Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN11R0Q1

Edit: Already clarified above by Nissan1180. Mods may delete this post if required.

I stand corrected. Still it's billions we are talking about.

[Skidrow]

Originally Posted by ksameer1234

I am sure there will be more for India here than just low skilled construction jobs. BHEL is already going to manufacture the rolling stock. Also, Japanese companies in India may set up JVs here to benefit from low manufacturing costs to supply for bullet train. Going ahead, if and when more lines are commissioned we can foresee indigenous efforts, the way it is happening with metro..

I would like to have a clarification on this - where does it say that Japan Railways has agreed to allow any Indian vendor to manufacture Shinkansen rolling stock?

AFAIK a pre-condition of the loans was that ENTIRE rolling stock and all major equipment would be bought from Japan (not even Japanese vendors in India or JVs) otherwise Shinkansen Railway would not be able to guarantee safety.

We will of course source the civil work - the tunnel under Thane creek, and the elevated track throughout and building the stations - from Indian vendors like L&T etc.

But that's all.

I would be happy to be proved wrong but nothing I have read is to the contrary barring airy 'Make In India' statements.

[ksameer1234]

Originally Posted by Skidrow

I would like to have a clarification on this - where does it say that Japan Railways has agreed to allow any Indian vendor to manufacture Shinkansen rolling stock?

There seem to be press reports indicating a JV with Kawasaki.

BHEL will manufacture rolling stock for the bullet train in a joint venture with Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KHI). It will be involved in work from manufacturing coaches and civil construction work to laying down rail links.

Source: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/bus...l-2388709.html

However, I couldn't find anything beyond such superficial news articles. While I don't think there will be tech transfer immediately, but if the manufacturing happens here, we would at least be able to learn good practices from our Japanese counterparts.

[no1lives4ever]

Originally Posted by Nissan1180

I read the news on another site. It says that this is the cost of the first 250 kilometers. That means the total might be around 11 billion.

One also needs to read more into the Chinese supplied High speed rail project in Thailand. It was originally supposed to by China, with the Chinese getting rights to commercially develop areas around the rail lines. There was some uproar in Thailand about this aspect of the project. As per the most recent report I read, they have now moved onto a project where Thailand will pay for the rail lines while the Chinese will continue to have some commercial development rights. This is nowhere comparable to the Japanese project.

IMO given the kind of help our country has gotten from Japanese over the years, I would support a slightly more expensive Japanese technology for the bullet train as compared to Chinese technology. Indian auto industry and current generation metro rail services got a huge boost thanks to Japanese investments in terms of money, technology and manpower.

Japan was the original developer of bullet trains and their technology is still amongst the best in class. We all know how good or bad most Chinese technology is.

We should not discount the big advantage that the Japanese bring in terms of training of manpower. This has had a major impact on our domestic auto industry.

Originally Posted by Nissan1180

I've used the monorail in Kuala Lumpur and that's when I realized how important it is to get the best when it comes to public infrastructure. The monorail is so horrible that you'd prefer walking to using it. It vibrates, makes scary noises while in motion and has a rated passenger capacity that makes it more suited for an amusement park.

I havent tried out the monorail in Kuala Lampur, but I have tried out the Mumbai monorail. And that also feels like some kind of unpolished technology. This definitely feels like a step down from the Mumbai Metro or Delhi Metro. Even Kolkata metro's trains dont have the wobbly noise making feel that the Mumbai Monorail gives.

Originally Posted by Nissan1180

I felt the same while using the Metro in Bangkok. The stations are horribly designed and the trains are really, really bad when you compare them to what's on offer in Singapore or even Delhi. The cost of running a bad train is same as a good one- so it makes more sense to spend more in the beginning and keep passengers happy for generations to come.

I used the Bangkok BTS system quite a bit when I was there last time. It definitely did not feel as wonky as the Monorail in Mumbai. The train sets do make noises, but overall they were pretty decent.

The trainssets used for the BTS surely did not feel as good as the Delhi Metro or Mumbai Metro's trains. They use rolling stock from Siemens and a Chinese company Changchun Railway Vehicles.

I really like the concept of how the Siam interchange station was setup. I hope metros in Delhi and rest of india adopt such a system where you have tracks stacked one on top of the other so that you are only 1 staircase ride away from your next train.

The BTS system in Bangkok is also facing a lot of issues due to the cost cutting/temporary nature of the Saphan Takshin station where there is only 1 track and 1 platform. That has been a major drag on the system's capacity and they are in the

Delhi Metro is one of the better run and maintained metro systems in the world. The trains are properly cleaned and while some show signs of ageing, even the oldest trains in service feel like they are properly maintained and cleaned. It looks like Mumbai Metro also takes cue from Delhi Metro on this and maintains its coaches nicely. And when you then compare to the Mumbai local trains or the rest of Indian railways, you can see the difference. Delhi metro train sets are mostly cleaner and better maintained than 1st class and executive class coaches on the Indian railways network.

Originally Posted by Nissan1180

Coming back to the point about whether the bullet train is needed at all, I'm not sure. It may be needed but not between Ahmedabad and Mumbai.

This is one corridor where bullet train is badly needed. This is a dense industrial corridor with lots of small and big cities. People do lots of travel between the city pairs inside the corridor. A bullet train can completely change the dynamics of running industries around this corridor.

IMO the big advantage of a HSR between these 2 cities is that while you may have express trains running between these 2 cities, there is a huge demand for travel to/from the in-between cities. E.g. today if you want to travel from Vadodra to Vapi, you can end up spending tons of time in travel.

Think from the perspective of a senior executive or business owner involved with a factory running somewhere along the proposed line, but someone who lives in Surat, Ahmedabad, Vadodra or Mumbai. There are 1000s of such people who will be glad to take the bullet train and get picked up by a car at the train station for travel to the factory.

Another thing that possible is for someone to be working out of BKC and doing a daily commute from a place 1-1.5 hours away by bullet train + local commute at originating station. The cost of the train tickets can be easily justified from the savings in rent alone.

One just needs to see how the introduction of HSR has changed the way people live and work along these corridors. There are tons of examples that you can study from France, Germany and Japan.

Originally Posted by Nissan1180

Real estate prices will fall if there's a station nearby. The noise is too high to make healthy living possible.

The same argument can be made about regular indian railways. The trains make a lot of noise both when they run and when they have their horns blowing out. But does this prevent people from living near train stations across the country?

On the contrary, with bullet trains, the areas around intermediate stations will see a boom in real estate.

Think about the scenario where a highly paid worker with an office near one of the bullet train stations at Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Vadodra, etc decides to stay with their family at a housing project that has luxury houses within 15-20 mins of a bullet train station. Rather than spend 1+ hour in commute within a busy city and then living in a cramped condo, one can look to spend same kind of money on a more spread out house somewhere that is perhaps closer to their family. Or maybe work in Mumbai while living with family in Surat.

Now think about how these potential scenarios can affect real estate prices.

-- no1lives4ever

[SourabhSuresh]

Looks like the habit of scandals has reached Japan and their companies too. I don't think it will have an effect on the Bullet train project in the long run. But it does involve a serious case of figures being systematically fabricated for over a period of 10 years by Kobe Steel Limited of Japan.

Link - http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/61054718.cms