[TSIched'Out]

Originally Posted by 599gto

Sir dropped catches are a part and parcel of the game, there are times when a batsmen gets out because of one wrong click that the umpire hears, so we shouldn't take anything away from Dhoni and Raina and Team India, they are in good form for sure!

I disagree. if you take out India vs minnows matches (read UAE, Ireland, West Indies), the other three matches were won by India due to stroke of luck. Virat was dropped twice by Pakistan, Shikhar was dropped by Amla and Raina was dropped by Zimbabwe. All these players ended up scoring match winning tons. The story would have been opposite if Pak/SA/Zimbabwe held on to these catches.

I am seriously hoping Bangladesh, Australia and NZ drop at least one catch vs India as it is vital for India win. But that would be pushing the luck too hard

[pratyush6]

Originally Posted by harry10

So, India will beat Bangladesh is a given. But, if Pakistan beats aussies then its gonna be a india/Pak sf.. Is that right?

Yes

Originally Posted by tbppjpr

Don't know about Wikippedia but here is what ICC says on it:

1st Semi Final: *If New Zealand
2nd Semi Final: *If Australia qualifies
So how does this equation work to make a match between Ind vs Pak possible before finals?

The rules you quoted are for hosts NZ and Australia Semifinal - that would have been possible only if they finished 1 & 3 or 2 & 4 - or that combination in their groups.

India beat Bangladesh and Pak beat Australia - We have an India Pak Semi, plain and simple.

Seems as if I have been correct about who finish where in groups, let me give my take on the Quarter Final lineups:

QF1 - SL Vs SA : I feel SL will beat SA. SA seems too brittle when they chase.

QF2 - India Vs Bangladesh : India should win this, although it will be a decent game

QF3 - Australia Vs Pak : Again Australia should win this. Brittle Pak batting and excellent Aussie bowling.

QF4 - NZ Vs. WI : Tough game to call, A couple of wickets at top and NZ seems to lose their way - would not be entirely out of bounds if WI beat NZ. Let me stick my neck out and say WI will beat NZ.

SL have a great chance to end up in the finals again. I'd fancy them beating NZ/WI fairly easily.

India's best chance to win this thing is if Pak beat Australia or India beat Australia (eventually)

Australia have the best team of the tournament this time around and I voted for them as well.

Originally Posted by TSIched'Out

I disagree. if you take out India vs minnows matches (read UAE, Ireland, West Indies), the other three matches were won by India due to stroke of luck. Virat was dropped twice by Pakistan, Shikhar was dropped by Amla and Raina was dropped by Zimbabwe. All these players ended up scoring match winning tons. The story would have been opposite if Pak/SA/Zimbabwe held on to these catches.

And what makes you conclude that no one else would have scored if those guys were out at the moment? How do we know - we do not predict scores by adding the averages of players.

India was better than Pakistan, was far better than SA and Zimbabwe did not even stand a chance. I remember MSD saying, he hoped one of the last wicket had gone down so that the lower order could be tested. That is the level of confidence he has in this team.

PS : Back to back posts, request mods to please merge.

[Eddy]

SA have a chance ONLY if they bat first. Don't think they have it in them to chase even 250 in a knockout game. Sydney seams and spins, it should be a good match.

However, if they manage to pull that one off then they become favourites against any opposition.

[TSIched'Out]

Originally Posted by pratyush6

And what makes you conclude that no one else would have scored if those guys were out at the moment? How do we know - we do not predict scores by adding the averages of players.

India was better than Pakistan, was far better than SA and Zimbabwe did not even stand a chance. I remember MSD saying, he hoped one of the last wicket had gone down so that the lower order could be tested. That is the level of confidence he has in this team.

PS : Back to back posts, request mods to please merge.

Have a look at the following closely:

India vs Pak: India went down from 2-273 to 7-296. Which was the third wicket, it was Virat who was dropped on 3 when India was 1-42 and then on 74 when India was 2-173.

India vs SA: India went down from 2-261 to 7-302. Which was the third wicket, it was Shikhar who was dropped on 53 when India was 1-79.

India vs Zimbabwe: Raina was dropped at 47 when India was 4-157 in 35th over. How many times India has won with 5 down and requiring 130+ runs in 90 balls.

Dhoni should have sent Jadeja before him vs Zimbabwe to test this one trick pony.

P.S.: I'm all for India winning the World cup but I guess we need to manage our expectations as our team has not been tested in a gruesome manner in the group matches. I wouldn't start hitting balls in the air with "confidence" assuming Australia (or for that matter Bangladesh) will drop the catches in knock out matches.

[carwatcher]

My predictions now:

SL v SA : whoever bats first wins.

IND v BAN : INDIA 99.5% whether chasing or defending but may lose if chasing in excess of 275.

AUS v PAK : whoever bats first wins.

NZ v WI : NZ 99.9% WI 0.01%

SF 1 and SF 2 : Whoever bats first wins

Finals : Whoever bats first wins

Exception : Only INDIA of all Eight teams is capable of chasing so they can win SF or Final chasing albeit not very easily.

[Eddy]

I think Aussies are good chasers too.

[srishiva]

India were good chasing (mostly on Indian pitches )and they seem to be doing so again.

[599gto]

Originally Posted by TSIched'Out

I disagree. if you take out India vs minnows matches (read UAE, Ireland, West Indies), the other three matches were won by India due to stroke of luck. Virat was dropped twice by Pakistan, Shikhar was dropped by Amla and Raina was dropped by Zimbabwe. All these players ended up scoring match winning tons. The story would have been opposite if Pak/SA/Zimbabwe held on to these catches.

I am seriously hoping Bangladesh, Australia and NZ drop at least one catch vs India as it is vital for India win. But that would be pushing the luck too hard

I disagree. Dropped catches can not claim the credit of performance that the team has shown, every time a batsmen has gone down, another has come up and performed.

Also if one team dropping catches can help the other team win, I wonder how and why has team India remained unbeaten in the world cup, because IIRC India has dropped quite a few catches too!

I see a lot of negativity regarding team India's performance and chances of team India winning the world cup again, isn't cricket the game of surprises, and the team has performed well against all the opponents that were thrown at them!

I for one think that India has a more than decent chance of re-doing a 2011!

[ghodlur]

Should India go out with 4 seamers and a spinner for the match against Bangladesh since Bangladesh is much more comfortable against spin bowling as they are from the sub continent. Bangladesh hasn't been a good scorer against fast bowling. Even Bangladesh has not clicked collectively as a team barring a few surprise innings.

[pratyush6]

Originally Posted by TSIched'Out

Have a look at the following closely:
India vs Pak: India went down from 2-273 to 7-296. Which was the third wicket, it was Virat who was dropped on 3 when India was 1-42 and then on 74 when India was 2-173.

Pakistan bowled very well in the death overs, we lost wickets when we tried to go for quick runs - it wasn't as if we were defending and we still lost wickets. Raina played a blinder in the middle overs - what makes you think Rahane wouldn't have consolidated if we lost a wicket there?

Originally Posted by TSIched'Out

India vs SA: India went down from 2-261 to 7-302. Which was the third wicket, it was Shikhar who was dropped on 53 when India was 1-79.

Again same as above - this time it was Rahane. In case we lost 2 quick ones, Rahane would have consolidated and Raina would have gone for runs later.

Originally Posted by TSIched'Out

India vs Zimbabwe: Raina was dropped at 47 when India was 4-157 in 35th over. How many times India has won with 5 down and requiring 130+ runs in 90 balls.

Check the numbers - whenever MSD is on the crease, you would find India does it more often than not. I do not have much confidence in Jadeja but Ashwin would have done the job. In this case if we had a better opposition we might have been in trouble but surely not against Zim.

I mean we are talking in conjectures - there is no point in that. It is not as if India wanted teams to drop catches. Sometimes luck just goes your way and I felt India have been playing well and some chances have gone our way.

I also think what's the point in running down the team or even downplaying it when we have been doing well, atleast be fair to the team.

We should keep the same approach we have had. Probably bat first as we seem to be doing it well. I am fairly happy the way team has played (which is very contrary to what I had thought). I would have loved to have a Yuvi in my side in place of fillers like Jadeja/Axar Patel/Binny. I still hope someone gets injured and he comes back

[TSIched'Out]

Originally Posted by pratyush6

I mean we are talking in conjectures - there is no point in that. It is not as if India wanted teams to drop catches. Sometimes luck just goes your way and I felt India have been playing well and some chances have gone our way.

I also think what's the point in running down the team or even downplaying it when we have been doing well, atleast be fair to the team.

We should keep the same approach we have had. Probably bat first as we seem to be doing it well. I am fairly happy the way team has played (which is very contrary to what I had thought). I would have loved to have a Yuvi in my side in place of fillers like Jadeja/Axar Patel/Binny. I still hope someone gets injured and he comes back

Well my point was India had it too easy whenever there were big matches at group stage and hence the extra confidence that our team got doesn't give me "confidence". Ideally team should have been happy topping the group with 4/5 wins but after coming out thoroughly tested by probing bowling and big run scores/chases against the strong teams (after all, 300 is the new 240 in this world cup). Remember in WC 2011, there was a tie against England even after 330+score and loss to South Africa even after scoring nearly 300 which set the tone for India to ultimately chase down Australia and Sri Lanka's scores in QF and Final respectively. That kind of group stage experience would have given the team much needed conditioning and pressure handling confidence required for the knock out stages.

And I agree with your point on Yuvi. It's sad selectors picked Jadeja types over Yuvi. He was indeed a big match player.

P.S.: There is no running down the Indian team, we love that our team wins, deservedly or otherwise

[carwatcher]

I don't think we need to discuss Yuvraj esp at the business end of the tournament. AFAIK Dhoni's main criteria for selecting any player is fitness and Yuvi was far from it. He anyways has shown desire to be remembered as a good Test batsman too and for which he is preparing.

I also have a gut feeling that Dhoni will use Axar Patel as 'Surprise' bowler sometime in knock-out games as he did Yusuf Pathan (as an all-rounder) in the T20 Finals in 2008 and other players in his later career. I am not saying it will work always but it is not a bad strategy.
Axar also did well in the Tri-series and even Binny performed well.
Let's hope for the best.

At the same time, I still want NZ or SA to win and won't mind Indian victory in the Finals, it surely will make MSD a legend which no one can match for some time in Indian cricket.

I am sure apart from all the captains, R. Balki would also be having sleepless nights for his Mauka Mauka Ads.

Originally Posted by carwatcher

My predictions now:
SL v SA : whoever bats first wins.

Exception to whoever bats first scenario : Teams like WI who score 150-160 batting first will surely not win. applicable to all teams.

[pratyush6]

Why shouldn't we talk about Yuvi? Why the hell pick Aksar Patel, Binny - have warmed the bench. Jadeja has been useless. Would pick a half fit Yuvi over these guys anyday.

Originally Posted by carwatcher

My predictions now:

SL v SA : whoever bats first wins.

IND v BAN : INDIA 99.5% whether chasing or defending but may lose if chasing in excess of 275.

AUS v PAK : whoever bats first wins.

NZ v WI : NZ 99.9% WI 0.01%

SF 1 and SF 2 : Whoever bats first wins

Finals : Whoever bats first wins

Exception : Only INDIA of all Eight teams is capable of chasing so they can win SF or Final chasing albeit not very easily.

Essentially you are telling that the toss will decide the outcome of the game barring India? You might as well just see the toss and not the game

I do not see it this way and would stick to my predictions - the winners for me are Sri Lanka, Australia, India and West Indies.

[miharbe]

I think South Africa have a tough one tomorrow especially given that the match is at SCG which is known to assist spinners. More so if Sri Lanka bats first and scores close to 275-300. Frankly Sri Lanka would fancy themselves even if they score 250 given South Africa's history! SA vs SL is the best quarter final match as a contest between two evenly matched teams.

[carwatcher]

"Why the hell" should we discuss Yuvi only and not discuss Sehwag, Yusuf Pathan, etc. when there are only three matches left and nothing can be done practically (or you still believe that he is practising for IPL so nicely that can straightaway join the team), the comments made by his Dad might have also closed the doors, if any for distant possible return.
If I have my way, I would recall Sachin of all players as he transforms into a different player altogether in the World Cups, but if wishes were horses.
Ok, I can understand your frustration now. As we don't have any other thread to discuss cricket other than this World Cup one, so we have to discuss everything here. No probs with that.
Thanks for valuable suggestion of watching only tosses, you have just saved my 48-50 hours in the last fortnight of March, I owe a big thanks to you, will definitely do that with an eye on Tosses won and match result of the remaining Seven matches.
I stick by my prediction of surprise element in the form of Axar Patel or Stuart Binny as medium pacers have done well in the tournament.

Peace.

Originally Posted by pratyush6

Why shouldn't we talk about Yuvi? Why the hell pick Aksar Patel, Binny - have warmed the bench. Jadeja has been useless. Would pick a half fit Yuvi over these guys anyday.

Essentially you are telling that the toss will decide the outcome of the game barring India?

I do not see it this way and would stick to my predictions - the winners for me are Sri Lanka, Australia, India and West Indies.