[m8002?]

Originally Posted by civic-sense

There is no proof for that. It is some number thrown at us by somebody and people quote it because it fits their narrative.

You are free to believe what you want. But would appreciate if you can send us some links where they prove that this impacts 60% of the population as claimed.

Please check the details from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Even in US, the +ve cases are around 15% of the tested population. This is true for all the countries in that list ( Germany 6%, Spain 16% and Italy 10%). In India it is just 3%. One or two countries can fudge the numbers, but believing that this is a conspiracy by the whole world and they are showing much lower infected numbers is taking it to a whole new level.

Just to add, those numbers are for the +ve cases. Here are links on how many of the +ve are asymptotic.
https://www.thenewsminute.com/articl...cerning-123122
https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...are-have-virus

We need to understand that all these testing ( except some countries like Germany, S. Korea, etc ) is being done on people who are suspected to be in contact with +ve patients. If you start including random testing, the % of +ve cases should further reduce.

[civic-sense]

Originally Posted by m8002?

You are free to believe what you want. But would appreciate if you can send us some links where they prove that this impacts 60% of the population as claimed.

I would like to see proof of the claim than proof disproving the claim.

Currently most of the testing protocols only tests people with symptoms. If 80% of the people are asymptomatic as some claims, the actual infection rate should be 5 times that. That means the actual numbers of India are not 30K but 1.5L?

Ain't that a preposterous claim?

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by civic-sense

I would like to see proof of the claim than proof disproving the claim.

Currently most of the testing protocols only tests people with symptoms. If 80% of the people are asymptomatic as some claims, the actual infection rate should be 5 times that. That means the actual numbers of India are not 30K but 1.5L?

Ain't that a preposterous claim?

Show me the data it is 1.5 lakhs and not 30 lakhs. Bear in mind each one of us including the Govt are working with incomplete numbers and educated guesses. Like you find 1.5 lakhs preposterous my assessment, given the combination of super contagious and asymtomatic is that the numbers infected in India is in the millions. We are here to share information, opinions and leave each to draw his/her own conclusion.

[Chetan_Rao]

Anyone wanting to play with numbers or use them as supporting evidence in arguments, should start with understanding basics of statistical data sampling.

Numbers without context mean nothing, and worse, can be made to mean anything one wants them to mean, leading to erroneous inferences. That's where the 'lies, damned lies and statistics' phrase comes from.

[alpha1]

Hey has anyone found out what makes this virus so easy to spread and propagate as compared to common cold and seasonal flu?

You can be in the close company of person who has either of the two for days but still not catch. But in case of covid it appears as if all you need to do is to just breathe in the air which touched a patient.

[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by alpha1

Hey has anyone found out what makes this virus so easy to spread and propagate as compared to common cold and seasonal flu?

You can be in the close company of person who has either of the two for days but still not catch. But in case of covid it appears as if all you need to do is to just breathe in the air which touched a patient.

Not fully correct. When you find that a covid patient took a flight or a train or bus, sometimes no one gets infected. Sometimes it is 2 or 4 people who got infected. It has never been found, to the best of my knowledge, that everyone on the same airplane, train or bus got infected. Similarly not everyone living in the same home gets infected nor does everyone working in the same office. If that were the case, by now 100% of the world would have been infected. Imagine one single infected person walks in a crowded market and then takes a train to work in a busy office where hundreds of people come and go. You would have thousands of cases just from that one person but in real life each infected person only infects around 2 other people on average.

[ashokrajagopal]

Originally Posted by alpha1

Hey has anyone found out what makes this virus so easy to spread and propagate as compared to common cold and seasonal flu?

You can be in the close company of person who has either of the two for days but still not catch. But in case of covid it appears as if all you need to do is to just breathe in the air which touched a patient.

Recently read an article about the need to study this and figure out a pattern.

https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/cov...s-and-lessons/

Disclaimer: I am not suggesting/endorsing any conclusions, so much as I am pointing to the need to study.
Quoting an excerpt from above link

Originally Posted by Jonathan Kay

1. If large droplets are found to be a dominant mode of transmission, then the expanded use of masks and social distancing is critical, because the threat will be understood as emerging from the ballistic droplet flight connected to sneezing, coughing, and laboured breathing. We would also be urged to speak softly, avoid “coughing, blowing and sneezing,” or exhibiting any kind of agitated respiratory state in public, and angle their mouths downward when speaking.

2. If lingering clouds of tiny aerosol droplets are found to be a dominant mode of transmission, on the other hand, then the focus on sneeze ballistics and the precise geometric delineation of social distancing protocols become somewhat less important—since particles that remain indefinitely suspended in an airborne state can travel over large distances through the normal processes of natural convection and gas diffusion. In this case, we would need to prioritize the use of outdoor spaces (where aerosols are more quickly swept away) and improve the ventilation of indoor spaces.

3. If contaminated surfaces are found to be a dominant mode of transmission, then we would need to continue, and even expand, our current practice of fastidiously washing hands following contact with store-bought items and other outside surfaces; as well as wiping down delivered items with bleach solution or other disinfectants.

[civic-sense]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Show me the data it is 1.5 lakhs and not 30 lakhs.

Nobody has proved 'yet' that Russel's teapot does not exist.

[DaptChatterjee]

The state of West Bengal seems to have a different approach regarding Covid deaths compared to the rest of the world. It has a Covid deaths Audit Committee which can only confirm the Covid fatalities. The number of Covid deaths, as of today, is officially 33 whereas the total number of deaths among Covid+ positive patients stand at 105. The rest, 72 persons, have died due to co-morbidity. This is as per the statement of Chief Secretary.
Source for the above numbers is this news article which is in Bengali.
I would request the doctors in this forum to tell us if there is any justification to this method at all!

[meerkat]

Originally Posted by DaptChatterjee

The state of West Bengal seems to have a different approach regarding Covid deaths compared to the rest of the world. It has a Covid deaths Audit Committee which can only confirm the Covid fatalities. The number of Covid deaths, as of today, is officially 33 whereas the total number of deaths among Covid+ positive patients stand at 105. The rest, 72 persons, have died due to co-morbidity. This is as per the statement of Chief Secretary.
.
I would request the doctors in this forum to tell us if there is any justification to this method at all!

This "method" is not in accordance with either WHO or ICMR, and ensures under-reporting of Covid-19 deaths. As is well established by now, people above 60 are much more likely to succumb to Covid-19, -- exactly the age group that is almost guaranteed to have co-morbidities! What a nifty way of counting them out of the Covid-19 death list! Incidentally, the power of writing the death certificate according to their own judgment has been taken away from the doctors directly involved in the treatment, and is controlled by some "audit committee" that takes its own sweet time in deciding what should or should not be reported!

It is interesting to note that (as has already been noted in this thread earlier) this method of reporting would enable Maharshtra to reduce their death count by about 80% !

But this is still an improvement in the last few days (after some heat from various external sources) over the earlier method of not reporting the "co-morbidity" deaths at all!

What is alarming in today's reported death numbers is that the total number (105) of Covid positive deaths (including the "co-morbidity" deaths) has jumped by some 70% over the previous day's reported number (perhaps due to an increase in number of tests, and/or perhaps some previously unreported numbers were reported now by the "audit committee")! What such abrupt/delayed jumps would do to the various colour-coded zones and the consequent reaction is anybody's guess!
.

[rdst_1]

The decision to not report the death due to co-morbidity, is just a way out, an 'ostrich policy'. In the end, every death is usually due to a major organ failure, whether renal or cardio-respiratory. How does it not matter what bought on the sudden change?
My father perished in somewhat similar circumstances as to what happens in some of the critical cases of CoVID-19. A cytokine storm is created by an overactive immune system and it starts damaging the body's vital organs. In his case, it led to renal failure within 3 days. Of course, someone with a pre-existing condition would be more vulnerable, but to say the reason of death is not CoVID is preposterous to say the least.

[kiku007]

Originally Posted by DaptChatterjee

The state of West Bengal seems to have a different approach regarding Covid deaths compared to the rest of the world. It has a Covid deaths Audit Committee which can only confirm the Covid fatalities. The number of Covid deaths, as of today, is officially 33 whereas the total number of deaths among Covid+ positive patients stand at 105. The rest, 72 persons, have died due to co-morbidity. This is as per the statement of Chief Secretary.
Source for the above numbers is this news article which is in Bengali.
I would request the doctors in this forum to tell us if there is any justification to this method at all!

This is just a good example of how disjointed and disconnected the facts are.

Does India have community transmission?

I'm told that the Tamil Nadu Government vehemently denies community transmission in the state. I can't understand how that can be true if we go by the international understanding of the term, "community transmission". It seems the term in use is "clusters".

Creative reporting.

[Miyata]

US national and theatre director Terry John Converse moves Kerala HC to extend his stay in Kochi

"Right now it's pretty clear that US is not the right place to travel to," he said referring to the spike in coronavirus cases in US which reached 1 million on Tuesday with over 58,000 deaths.

"I'm fine here. I feel safer and secure in Kochi," he said.

I guess most of us would agree with him on that. Kudos to Kerala and their management.

[alpha1]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

Not fully correct.

I only said it appears.

My question arises from the observations at my office, colony, home, friends circle, outing etc - extremely rare to see (symptoms of) cold or flu spreading from one particular (infected) person to another. Perhaps our body immunity is high for these infections, and therefore perhaps we are infected most of the times but symptoms don't show up.

[Miyata]

landscape of COVID 19 candidate vaccines

While majority of them are in pre-clinical stage, at least one appears more hopeful - ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 - Developed at the University of Oxford’s Jenner Institute.

AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford today announced an agreement for the global development and distribution of the University’s potential recombinant adenovirus vaccine aimed at preventing COVID-19 infection from SARS-CoV-2.

Vaccines made from the ChAdOx1 virus have been given to more than 320 people to date and have been shown to be safe and well tolerated