[Jeroen]

Not so sure about India. But in quite a few countries there are movements against all corona restrictions/measures. Especially these masks are taking a beating in the USA, but also other countries.

So here is an interesting and sobering quote from Dr. Fauci

“Chickenpox is a virus. Lots of people have had it, and probably don't think about it much once the initial illness has passed. But it stays in your body and lives there forever, and maybe when you're older, you have debilitatingly painful outbreaks of shingles. You don't just get over this virus in a few weeks, never to have another health effect. We know this because it's been around for years, and has been studied medically for years.
Herpes is also a virus. And once someone has it, it stays in your body and lives there forever, and anytime they get a little run down or stressed-out they're going to have an outbreak. Maybe every time you have a big event coming up (school pictures, job interview, big date) you're going to get a cold sore. For the rest of your life. You don't just get over it in a few weeks. We know this because it's been around for years, and been studied medically for years.
HIV is a virus. It attacks the immune system and makes the carrier far more vulnerable to other illnesses. It has a list of symptoms and negative health impacts that goes on and on. It was decades before viable treatments were developed that allowed people to live with a reasonable quality of life. Once you have it, it lives in your body forever and there is no cure. Over time, that takes a toll on the body, putting people living with HIV at greater risk for health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, diabetes, bone disease, liver disease, cognitive disorders, and some types of cancer. We know this because it has been around for years, and had been studied medically for years.
Now with COVID-19, we have a novel virus that spreads rapidly and easily. The full spectrum of symptoms and health effects is only just beginning to be cataloged, much less understood.
So far the symptoms may include:
Fever
Fatigue
Coughing
Pneumonia
Chills/Trembling
Acute respiratory distress
Lung damage (potentially permanent)
Loss of taste (a neurological symptom)
Sore throat
Headaches
Difficulty breathing
Mental confusion
Diarrhea
Nausea or vomiting
Loss of appetite
Strokes have also been reported in some people who have COVID-19 (even in the relatively young)
Swollen eyes
Blood clots
Seizures
Liver damage
Kidney damage
Rash
COVID toes (weird, right?)
People testing positive for COVID-19 have been documented to be sick even after 60 days. Many people are sick for weeks, get better, and then experience a rapid and sudden flare up and get sick all over again. A man in Seattle was hospitalized for 62 days, and while well enough to be released, still has a long road of recovery ahead of him. Not to mention a $1.1 million medical bill.
Then there is MIS-C. Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children is a condition where different body parts can become inflamed, including the heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, skin, eyes, or gastrointestinal organs. Children with MIS-C may have a fever and various symptoms, including abdominal pain, vomiting, diarrhea, neck pain, rash, bloodshot eyes, or feeling extra tired. While rare, it has caused deaths.
This disease has not been around for years. It has basically been 6 months. No one knows yet the long-term health effects, or how it may present itself years down the road for people who have been exposed. We literally *do not know* what we do not know.
For those in our society who suggest that people being cautious are cowards, for people who refuse to take even the simplest of precautions to protect themselves and those around them, I want to ask, without hyperbole and in all sincerity:
How dare you?
How dare you risk the lives of others so cavalierly. How dare you decide for others that they should welcome exposure as "getting it over with", when literally no one knows who will be the lucky "mild symptoms" case, and who may fall ill and die. Because while we know that some people are more susceptible to suffering a more serious case, we also know that 20 and 30-year-olds have died, marathon runners and fitness nuts have died, children and infants have died.
How dare you behave as though you know more than medical experts, when those same experts acknowledge that there is so much we don't yet know, but with what we DO know, are smart enough to be scared of how easily this is spread, and recommend baseline precautions such as:
Frequent hand-washing
Physical distancing
Reduced social/public contact or interaction
Mask wearing
Covering your cough or sneeze
Avoiding touching your face
Sanitizing frequently touched surfaces
The more things we can all do to mitigate our risk of exposure, the better off we all are, in my opinion. Not only does it flatten the curve and allow health care providers to maintain levels of service that aren't immediately and catastrophically overwhelmed; it also reduces unnecessary suffering and deaths, and buys time for the scientific community to study the virus in order to come to a more full understanding of the breadth of its impacts in both the short and long term.
I reject the notion that it's "just a virus" and we'll all get it eventually. What a careless, lazy, heartless stance.”

Enjoy, be safe, make sure to keep your (social) distance, wash your hands frequently and use those masks for crying out loud!!

Jeroen

[Thad E Ginathom]

Six months in. This corvid-19/coronavirus is getting really boring, right? The numbers have become absolutely meaningless to me. So-called isolating, we seem to be letting more and more people come and do work outside the house, and interacting with them.

Originally Posted by Jeroen

So here is an interesting and sobering quote from Dr. Fauci

It's just the right to read that. Very sobering.

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by Jeroen

So here is an interesting and sobering quote from Dr. Fauci

No, Dr. Anthony Fauci did not write this. Let's not get carried away.

https://factcheck.afp.com/social-med...comments-fauci

https://jerz.setonhill.edu/blog/2020...so-cavalierly/

https://thelogicalindian.com/fact-ch...ny-fauci-22665

[Jeroen]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

No, Dr. Anthony Fauci did not write this. Let's not get carried away.

]

Irrespective, is there anything in that quote you don't believe or disagree with?

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by Jeroen

Irrespective, is there anything in that quote you don't believe or disagree with?

My views are pretty well documented in this thread. But, that's not the point.

The point is, you attributed something as what Dr. Fauci said. But he never said that, as far as I can tell.

[Jeroen]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

The point is, you attributed something as what Dr. Fauci said. But he never said that, as far as I can tell.

He probably did not, but I still like it and I do believe it makes a lot of sense seeing what we went through in the Netherlands and some other European countries I am familiar with.

Jeroen

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

No, Dr. Anthony Fauci did not write this. Let's not get carried away. ...

Well thank you. It is important that we stuck to facts.

Everything in that quote makes good sense. Sadly, we seem to live in a world now where even the valid is turned into "fake news" by false attribution.

I still think it is a good message.

[proton]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Six months in. This corvid-19/coronavirus is getting really boring, right? The numbers have become absolutely meaningless to me. So-called isolating, we seem to be letting more and more people come and do work outside the house, and interacting with them.

It's just the right to read that. Very sobering.

Six months! Aaagh! I'm going stir crazy. Yes, getting plenty of things fixed by outsiders (things are looking good in the house!), but still wearing masks, supplying sanitiser, keeping social distance (away from workspot!), when they visit. It's actually keeping my BP down, because when they goof up, I don't get to see it as often.

https://www.facebook.com/barry.bierk...20423880694076

[am1m]

Before anyone posts the 'new strain 10 times deadlier!' headlines that are doing the rounds and gives us something new to worry about - it's sensational headlines, that 'new' strain was unearthed a long time ago (and reported on a long time ago) and the rest is just extrapolation on the part of the news.

Here's a thought on this from someone with the credentials:

https://twitter.com/FaheemYounus/sta...66633008857090

This doctor's posts make complete sense to me- he busts the misinformation, provides context to the sensational headlines that put the outlier and 'hey, it could happen' scenarios on the front page- basically strikes a balance urging people not to panic but not to be careless either. And he does seem to have the necessary credentials to talk about these things.

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by Jeroen

He probably did not, but I still like it and I do believe it makes a lot of sense seeing what we went through in the Netherlands and some other European countries I am familiar with.

Jeroen

"Went through" in March-April being the key phrase here. Netherlands last saw double digits death (that too only 11) on a single day last on Jun 10th.

Netherlands is seeing zero or low single digits per day deaths for more than 2 months now.

Post probably made some sense back in March-April when not much was known of the virus.

Source

[Jeroen]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

"
Netherlands is seeing zero or low single digits per day deaths for more than 2 months now.

Post probably made some sense back in March-April when not much was known of the virus.

When this whole thing started we saw a huge influx of patients requiring IC care. All measure taken than were aimed at ensuring not to overburden the hospital IC capacity, which would have left people dying. We came very close to that point.

Some of the initial restrictions that helped flatten the curve have been lifted over the last few months. For the last few weeks the numbers of infection is growing rapidly. (E.g. as of Monday if you enter the UK from the Netherlands you need to quarantine)

So the leading indicator, numbers of infection are going up again.

To the point where from an infection point we will be back to square one soon. Which is likely to lead to more patients ending up on IC. We have not seen that yet. The number of IC Corona patients is relatively low now, although rising, but is expected to rise sharply again.

These are the known, registered cases:



We probably have a better view on the number of infections compared to the early days, due to more testing capabilities.

So further measures and restrictions will likely be announced.

So this virus is not going away until people and society take some measures. They are well known and it is what brought the numbers down in the first place.

Some people keep arguing it is not much different than the flu. But those people that ended up on the ICs had a very rough time. Yes, for most if will be like a cold, some might not even know they have had it.

There is some debate know as to what the Corona measures in hospitals have on all other people requiring medical care. When all our hospital were looking after Corona patients, lots of other medical treatments were put on the back burner for months. It is very difficult to assess the impact and it is all down to statistics. Problem is when you have Corona patients at your hospital door requiring immediate care and needing to be put on a ventilator urgently, what do you do? You tell them to die, so we can continue cancer treatment for other patients?

Ultimately, this is probably more an ethical question than a medical or even an economic one.

Jeroen

[Thad E Ginathom]

I think it is a political question, because it is politicians that, ultimately, are in charge and set true agenda.

So, other patients are dying, and will die, because their treatment is suspended. That does not say that covid actions are wrong, it says management of entire system is wrong.

Don't blame the virus: blame the bosses.

[Jeroen]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

I think it is a political question, because it is politicians that, ultimately, are in charge and set true agenda.

So, other patients are dying, and will die, because their treatment is suspended. That does not say that covid actions are wrong, it says management of entire system is wrong.

Don't blame the virus: blame the bosses.

I am not so sure whether all (political) bosses are to be blamed. Some certainly should be blamed for simply not responding and not taking this thing seriously at all. Or perhaps responding to slowly.

But here is the thing: we need to take action against something that has many unknowns. Decisions are taken based on still quite ambigeoous circumstances.
And as this thread shows, the available data can be interpreted in many ways, it is not always to get only facts on the table.

Many, not all, governments seem to take a better safe than sorry approach to some extend. In the sense that many still promote/mandate the same kind of stuff; social distancing, work from home, basic hygiene, testing, avoid crowded areas, restriction on movements etc.

And of course, quite a few governments found themselves initially, in a much worse situation than the Netherlands ever was. Where the health system was completely overwhelmed. So I would say being prudent is the safe option.

Whether history will show our political leaders have taken the right decisions, remains to be seen. A lot of it can only be judged at least 1-2 years from now.

Politics is about balancing different priorities; I think there is a fundamental difference in taking responsibility and coming up with what you believe is the best course of action under the circumstances. Unfortunately, with Corona, no matter what there are always going to be those that loose. Their life, due to Corona, or because whatever medical treatment was required, wasn’t available, those loosing their jobs, income, the economic impact in general etc.

Whatever you do, or even if you don’t do anything, people are going to suffer. So how do you strike a correct balance in your approach.

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by Jeroen

So the leading indicator, numbers of infection are going up again.

To the point where from an infection point we will be back to square one soon. Which is likely to lead to more patients ending up on IC.

It is possible but unlikely that rising number of infections would lead to more patients ending up in IC. From what I have read, as economies open up, younger people are catching the virus and they are less likely to end up in IC.

Of course, we will have to wait for a couple of more weeks if this trend (less hospitalizations and reducing death counts) also holds up.

---

Moving on, couple of interesting articles

From the New York Times

To achieve so-called herd immunity — the point at which the virus can no longer spread widely because there are not enough vulnerable humans — scientists have suggested that perhaps 70 percent of a given population must be immune, through vaccination or because they survived the infection.

Now some researchers are wrestling with a hopeful possibility. In interviews with The New York Times, more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that’s true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought.

But in parts of New York, London and Mumbai, for example, it is not inconceivable that there is already substantial immunity to the coronavirus, scientists said.

Researchers in Mumbai conducted just such a random household survey, knocking on every fourth door — or, if it was locked, the fifth — and took blood for antibody testing. They found a startling disparity between the city’s poorest neighborhoods and its more affluent enclaves. Between 51 and 58 percent of residents in poor areas had antibodies, versus 11 to 17 percent elsewhere in the city.

---

Pune serosurvey shows 50% have antibodies against Covid-19

Source

The results of a serological survey in Pune has indicated that over 50 per cent of the population could already have been infected by novel Coronavirus. This is significantly higher than the results of similar serological surveys carried out in some other cities, like Delhi and Mumbai, but not surprising.

“These numbers also seem to confirm the general impression that most SARS-CoV2 infections are asymptomatic (some estimates say approximately 80 per cent are asymptomatic). Most of the volunteers participating in this survey reported no illness over the past few months. Of course, the virus could be spreading from asymptomatically infected people too, especially within families,” the scientists have written.

[ninjatalli]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

Pune serosurvey shows 50% have antibodies against Covid-19

Attaching the original report
http://www.iiserpune.ac.in/userfiles...16_08_2020.pdf

This is a simple yet brilliant analysis on the ~1660 sample set - the attached report showcases the break-up by
- By high incidence areas (where surveys were taken)
- By age group
- By gender
- By type of residence (from hutments to bunglows)
- By size of residence (<150 sqft to 500+ sqft)
- By usage of toilets

Barring a few scenarios, the levels of seropositivity has been found around 50% across every data set! That's astonishing!

Questions to folks who are much more versed in understanding surveys - is a 1600+ survey sample good enough to make generalizations about the extent of infection across the city?