[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by proton

So what went wrong with my friend's "risk assessment"? He is more scientifically advanced than I am, actually has doctors in his family. Some family members teach at Harvard, have received Rhodes scholarships. If you google their family name, they are stars.

There are enough doctors who believe that chanting and clapping kills the virus. Clinton was a Rhodes scholar, I wouldn't trust him (and Hillary shouldn't have, either). People get caught up in the hubris of titles and achievements, which the virus does not consider. There should be a basic thought process that follows first principles.

[proton]

Originally Posted by v1p3r

There are enough doctors who believe that chanting and clapping kills the virus. Clinton was a Rhodes scholar, I wouldn't trust him (and Hillary shouldn't have, either). People get caught up in the hubris of titles and achievements, which the virus does not consider. There should be a basic thought process that follows first principles.

I agree. Sometimes it's a handicap to be a genius. I once had an argument with the same friend, who refuses to vaccinate his children. There really is a link between MMR vaccines and autism, and he is also a great conspiracy theory adherent: in this case, it's all a hoax to sell truckloads of doses by the pharmaceutical MNCs. Finally, he couldn't get his kids admission into some schools in the West because they hadn't got their shots. He knuckled down and got them compliant. Bottom-line, even though there are compelling arguments on both sides, what finally counts is what is the bigger risk. As for doctors' views, you really need to be an epidemiologicists to make recommendations about herd immunity. They will tell you the fatality costs are just too high. Doctors are very careful about pontificating outside their specialities. You don't really have the time to be the 'on top of your game' condition required to interfere elsewhere.

[v1p3r]

With no disrespect to you, I would stay very far away from such friends. Tomorrow you'll find out they don't wash their hands because of some pseudo scientific reason, and you'll fall ill going to their place for a meal.

[vivek95]

Originally Posted by proton

you really need to be an epidemiologicists to make recommendations about herd immunity.

A correction here. Immunity is completely a domain of an Immunologist/Microbiologist. An epidemiologist doesn't have an understanding about immunology. Epidemiologist is an expert in constructing a framework for public health based on the inputs given by infectious physicians/physicians/microbiologists, since the latter are directly involved in research work and treating patients. Herd immunity is taught to us in detail in Microbiology and infectious diseases.

[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by v1p3r

With no disrespect to you, I would stay very far away from such friends. Tomorrow you'll find out they don't wash their hands because of some pseudo scientific reason, and you'll fall ill going to their place for a meal.

I think people are being needlessly harsh on this person without having any direct knowledge. Even if we accept that he was somewhat careless and thus got infected, how would you explain some 17 million plus people in the world who have been fearful and still got the infection? Why single him out? For all we know it wasn’t due to any personal carelessness on his part. It could be from another family member or just plain bad luck like it has been for millions of people.

[proton]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

Why single him out? For all we know it wasn’t due to any personal carelessness on his part. It could be from another family member or just plain bad luck like it has been for millions of people.

The reason is that he was careless. Sometimes we can be paranoid at the other end of the spectrum, in suspecting that Da Man is always trying to manipulate us, trying to be alarmist, so that he can sell more vaccine. Then, we become tribalist, polarised, extreme in our views: everything said by the other party is wrong! Why? Because he belongs to the other Side!

Originally Posted by vivek95

Herd immunity is taught to us in detail in Microbiology and infectious diseases.

You may be right. When asked about the behaviour of the virus, the epidemiologist I was following admitted his views were actually not authoritative and the real person to ask would have been his wife, a virulogist. Let me chew on this a while. Incidentally, is the encapsulation holding water, the view that the price for herd immunity is too high?

[digitalnirvana]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

I think people are being needlessly harsh on this person without having any direct knowledge.

Sorry but choosing not to vaccinate your children being fully aware of the risk of polio, measles and what not is completely unacceptable. Its scummy behaviour because he's not doing it to himself, he's doing it to minor children who have no say in this and risking them to death or a very poor quality of life.

Anti vaxxers should all be made ineligible for mediclaim & insurance and any state sponsored healthcare. Let them deal with their ignorance on their own.

Also, there is NO link between MMR vaccines and autism. It was a hoax promoted by an unqualified quack and some sections of the populace believe in it. Its fine for them to do so. They might not believe in evolution or the moon landings or whatever, its their personal freedom which is a very big deal in the USA. I regularly read terribly sad stories of parents losing their children because they chose to use essential oils or herbal remedies or prayer over medicine.

But if you bring your unvaccinated ill child to school or a public place, I'm going to report you to child services. And you better not claim freedom of being paranoid in that case.

[ABHI_1512]

I have had the experience of another kind altogether during this COVID era. Every now then ever since the lockdown started, I have had to visit many doctors for a variety of reasons but none involving me. Today also, I had to take someone from the distant family to visit a specialist doctor and mind you, I have visited many during the past few months. What I witnessed today was unprecedented and completely blew my mind. Sharing a picture for you all to deduce your own conclusion. This was an OPD consultation :

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by v1p3r

... ... ... There should be a basic thought process that follows first principles.

I think you just defined common sense. And no, it does not necessarily go with high qualifications.

Originally Posted by proton

Incidentally, is the encapsulation holding water, the view that the price for herd immunity is too high?

If I remember correctly, herd immunity was brought into this by politicians and the servants. What it really means, in the current context, is the survivors. Every body has to juggle the numbers, 1%, 0.1%, 0.01%... and ask if the price is to high for the community or the risk too much for themselves.

What I read from doctors, rather than politicians, is that real herd immunity comes about by inoculation above a certain percentage.

Originally Posted by digitalnirvana

Also, there is NO link between MMR vaccines and autism. It was a hoax promoted by an unqualified quack ...

Actually no, it was research carried out by a qualified doctor at a major London hospital. It was published in The Lancet. It took several years for his methods to be questioned, the science pronounced to be bad, the motives questioned, and the paper discredited. It was the end of Dr Wakefield's career --- but he is now doing well evangelising to the antivaxers in USA.

Actually, I keep meaning to revise this story. I don't know/remember the details. I keep wondering why it took so many years to discredit his work? I'll have to read it up.

Because I never had a problem with the principle of inoculation, I never bothered to listen to the antivaxxers. In an imperfect world of imperfect pharmaceuticals companies, there may have been problems with individual vaccines, but it does not invalidate the successes and certainly not the principle. I'm not actually sure that I want to be an early adopter of a hurriedly-developed and under-tested corvid19 inoculation.

I never subscribed to the idea that the human immune system is a delicate little flower of a thing that can have all its petals blown away by a slight breeze. On the contrary, it is the body's tough thugs system, and inoculation is analogous to a workout: It toughens it up further. But the delicate-flower idea sells more stuff.

[digitalnirvana]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

Actually no, it was research carried out by a qualified doctor at a major London hospital..... I keep wondering why it took so many years to discredit his work? I'll have to read it up.

The Lancet paper was a fraud. Calling it research is being far too kind on someone who has the blood of God knows how many innocents on his hands.

You can read the details on Wikipedia and a clearer summary here.

It did not take long to discredit the research. It however took long to prove that Wakefield had fraudulent intentions and financial motive to publish his misleading paper.

Hope this helps.

[v1p3r]

Originally Posted by Lobogris

I think people are being needlessly harsh on this person without having any direct knowledge.

Responding since I'm quoted. Not going to mince my words, this guy is a buffoon. He's putting his small children at risk because of his stupid antivaxxer beliefs. OP says this guy will believe any crackpot conspiracy theory. I have no sympathy for anyone who deliberately puts others, especially small children, in harm's way.

Such people should not have the privilege of being parents, or of holding positions of any authority.

[proton]

Originally Posted by vivek95

Herd immunity might be poorly understood with Covid, but that doesn't mean its not happening altogether.

If herd immunity is poorly understood, I don't think it should be advised by anybody, whether by immunologists, or those who collate the information provided by them and the other related experts, by epidemiologists, who act like a chief of armed forces, to provide a healthcare strategy.

Again, regarding understanding of the pandemic, it seems the antibodies against the virus disappear in as short a period as 3 weeks. That means immunity is lost after a short while. Reinfection is possible. The herd cycle has to start again. This is bad news for vaccines as well. We know that flushots provide immunity for a year, requiring annual renewals. Does this mean the corona virus vaccines, when they come, need renewals every three weeks?

BTW, the friend is a doctor. Just showing intelligence is not the same as wisdom.

[vivek95]

Originally Posted by proton

If herd immunity is poorly understood, I don't think it should be advised by anybody, whether by immunologists, or those who collate the information provided by them and the other related experts, by epidemiologists, who act like a chief of armed forces, to provide a healthcare strategy.

Again, regarding understanding of the pandemic, it seems the antibodies against the virus disappear in as short a period as 3 weeks. That means immunity is lost after a short while. Reinfection is possible. The herd cycle has to start again. This is bad news for vaccines as well. We know that flushots provide immunity for a year, requiring annual renewals. Does this mean the corona virus vaccines, when they come, need renewals every three weeks?

BTW, the friend is a doctor. Just showing intelligence is not the same as wisdom.

Let genuine information disseminate to the scientific community and public by those who know about immunity better. Why stop them from advising ??

You need to read more. There is a growing evidence of T-cell immunity being triggered ( antibody is B-cells, cellular mediated is T-cell) by SARS--Cov2 virus and the cellular immunity is longer lasting.

Yes, let wisdom rule at the end of the day.

[proton]

Originally Posted by vivek95

Let genuine information disseminate to the scientific community and public by those who know about immunity better. Why stop them from advising ??

You need to read more. There is a growing evidence of T-cell immunity being triggered ( antibody is B-cells, cellular mediated is T-cell) by SARS--Cov2 virus and the cellular immunity is longer lasting.

Yes, let wisdom rule at the end of the day.

Yes I read certain vaccines encourage T-cell response to the receptors of the virus, rather like the action seen in HIV positive patients. Does herd immunity evoke the same activity? Genuine curiosity. Agreed on other points. Thanks for the response. This discussion is good because some vague notions on my own part are being cleared even while discussing!

[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

If I remember correctly, herd immunity was brought into this by politicians and the servants. What it really means, in the current context, is the survivors. Every body has to juggle the numbers, 1%, 0.1%, 0.01%... and ask if the price is to high for the community or the risk too much for themselves.

Many people seem to have this misconception regarding herd immunity. They assume that the government or the society has to be willing to sacrifice x percentage or x number of people for another group's gain. However, in reality, herd immunity is the ONLY way this crisis will abate. Like it or not, it will happen. So when people advocate for it, they are just being realists, not cruel in calculating how many to sacrifice. This is a natural disaster, not a man made event. Like it or not, the virus will spread through the world and will only stop once herd immunity has been reached. We have seen this is New York, in London, Madrid, Bombay and now Delhi. In Bombay slums, nearly 60% people were found to have contracted the virus. No matter how many lockdowns we do, how many mitigation measures we take, the virus will keep spreading until a sufficient percentage of people contract it and recover from it. Every lockdown has failed to stop its spread and everywhere it has reemerged after the restrictions were lifted except China where we can't fully trust the figures.