[hothatchaway]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

This thread has become a selective-news-pic/generalisation festival. The desire to be optimistic is not only understood, it is appreciated. Optimism with blinkers, not so much.
nt.

I feel optimism or the determination to plod ahead is what common people around the world will need to plod ahead. Pretty much every vaunted leader made a hash of the crisis landing us where we are. In India, we were complacent initially, then the hammer dropped without warning spreading much panic and confusion, yet here we are, after four months, with no end in sight. Much back slapping among the authorities and a couple of tall claims offering a cure notwithstanding, the common man on the street, sans WFH, social security and affordable healthcare, stares at an uncertain future.

Traffic is less than half of what it was during normal times on major thoroughfares, many small services have downed shutters, people with financial obligations are staring down the barrel. In this backdrop, I think the patience to sustain precautionary measures are wearing thin.

[Gansan]

TN to experimentally give BCG vaccination to the 60 - 95 age group to mitigate the effects of Covid 19, I saw in the TV news this evening. They said it is as per recommendation of ICMR.

[Thad E Ginathom]

BCG Article in The Hindu.

It's a trial, I wonder how widely available it will be.

Originally Posted by hothatchaway

I feel optimism or the determination to plod ahead is what common people around the world will need to plod ahead.

Oh, sure, yes. We need it, and it is getting a little hard sometimes.

In this backdrop, I think the patience to sustain precautionary measures are wearing thin.

I think this is exactly why we need to sustain the precautions. And we need to try to do so cheerfully. I think that means facing up to the virus, and accepting that, inside or out, we need to take it seriously. There's a danger of going into general denial, or of thinking it won't happen to us.

Delivery guy... he came to us with the wrong parcel, said he'd go back for the right one. He was kind enough to answer the phone to us and update us. It went from "I'm off sick" to "12 people tested positive, we're all in hospital." Hey, yes, he was kind enough to answer the phone from the hospital .

Anyway, he was positive and symptomatic. Nothing serious,he said that he could have stayed at home but didn't have a separate room. Nothing serious, but still he said he's never had so much pain.

Dengue wasn't exactly fun, but I really don't fancy this one. If I can help it. If I don't succeed, hey, I've survived other stuff, and even being a little bit old, probably I can survive this too. But young or old. I really think we should not deny it, and do our best to avoid having to survive it.

There has to be a path of getting back to work and life if we can.

[am1m]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

But young or old. I really think we should not deny it, and do our best to avoid having to survive it.

There has to be a path of getting back to work and life if we can.

Absolutely. That's a good point, from being irrationally scared, the risk is now that we'll swing the other way and say things like 'there's nothing we can do', 'we've already stayed locked down for so long', etc and stop taking basic, simple precautions. Both extremes are not going to help.

Hardly anyone, including the press is asking what we really did during the first months of the nation-wide lockdown, and now how we are utilizing these localized lockdowns- are we testing more, how much more, how many beds added, does a week's lockdown make sense, things like that. So because of that, the majority of people have it fixed in their minds that a simple lockdown is the solution. And once the lockdown is lifted, the problem will be solved. Also, this is/will certainly happen:

Originally Posted by hothatchaway

In this backdrop, I think the patience to sustain precautionary measures are wearing thin.

IMHO, it would be much better at this stage to push for mandatory masks, more local covid care centers for mild cases, use the state's manpower and facilities to ramp up medical facilities and augment staff (all those things are happening, but they really took time to start and are still happening very slowly), instead of using them to just enforce Section 144 here and there.

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

The desire to be optimistic is not only understood, it is appreciated. Optimism with blinkers, not so much.

Can you imagine what would happen if someone posted here,
Consider that very carefully. Actually, it is largely true, right? Nothing will happen.

I am firmly on #TeamOptimistic . This is purely from a scientific/medical/statistical viewpoint.

There is overwhelming data now that death rates from Covid-19 are far less than what was initially feared in Mar-Apr. We do not yet have a single silver-bullet cure, but we have treatment protocols that have reduced the fatality rates. All these are well-established data.

Simple question, we read so many news items of Covid 19 deaths in Eurupe (Italy, France, Spain, Belgium , Germany etc) in Mar-Apr. When is the last time you read any Covid news report from any of these countries? Almost all of Europe opened up (including schools) after lockdowns in May. Yet European countries are now only seeing single-digits or low double digits average deaths per day.

The simple fact is scientists/doctors have a much better understanding of the disease than in Apr-May ; we are already well on the path to defeat the virus.

That is my source of optimism.

And I am not stupid (at least I believe so) or careless. I understand that in India are NOT in same situation as in current Europe. I don't encourage people going out and socializing. But I am highly confident we will get there in India also.

This puny virus doesn't stand a chance against human ingenuity.

ps - The analogy of driving on the wrong side is not apt . The risk of an accidents happening is the same now, in 6 months time, or in 5 years time. In case of diseases, humans will understand the come up with a cure/vaccine or a manageable treatment, and so the risk from the disease decreases over time.

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by Thad E Ginathom

The dangers of driving on the wrong side of the road around a blind corner are exaggerated. Almost certainly nothing will happen to you, and if it does, it probably won't be too bad. Not everybody dies

Consider that very carefully. Actually, it is largely true, right? Nothing will happen. And it doesn't; until the day it does. When it may very well not be fatal, but is hardly likely to be pleasant.

I understand the statement, and don't disagree with it specifically. But, I don't understand either the analogy or how is it related to this thread. Did your analogy mean this:

(1) "The dangers of corona virus are exaggerated. Almost certainly nothing will happen to you, and if it does, it probably won't be too bad. Not everybody dies"

OR, does it mean something like this:

(2) "The dangers of not wearing a mask, and not following social distancing norms are exaggerated. Almost certainly nothing will happen to you, and if it does, it probably won't be too bad. Not everybody dies"

If you meant the 1st one, it is definitely true, not just largely true. The hard data over the last 3 months, as well as the improving treatment options across the world confirm that. As well as the sero-survey recently completed in Delhi, rendering the infection fatality rate as very low. Let us leave corner cases of a few sensational deaths out - because statistically they are insignificant in number, though it is undeniably traumatic for that family. The corner cases are like media reporting "A marathon runner collapsed and died yesterday. Is marathon running safe?". Yes, it is safe most of the time, provided you train reasonably sensibly. An extremely small percentage might have underlying undetected heart issues that may make them high risk - Most of the heart doctors will confirm this. In short, the minority specific cases cannot be made into a generalization.

If you meant the 2nd one, I agree with you that we need to take the guidelines seriously. No doubt about that. But, we can only do that upto a point. Social distancing is a luxury very few can afford. Economy is important too, as has been discussed to death in this topic, so I don't want to go into it again. I am all for strict policing and heavy fines, if somebody is spitting or caught without a mask. After all this, in spite of being careful, if you do get it, then it's tough luck. You tried your best to be sensible, but you still got it. Hopefully you will fall in the 99.5% and above people who will survive. Hopefully, you will not even realize it, and be asymptomatic. These %ages are lower than so many other risks we take everyday without even realizing it. Can we do anything more than this, other than be in a panicked/depressed state all the time?

[Nalin1]

Isn't this interesting?

https://twitter.com/faheemyounus/sta...35578889052161

If money is an issue, try this:

- have fever/aches/cough/other symptoms? Isolate at home

- no test needed. Wear mask. Keep >6ft away

- take panadol/ibuprofen for fever/pain. No antibiotics

- end isolation after 14 d

This should work in >85% cases

Is he putting COVID-19 in its place or building castles in the air?

[DCEite]

Originally Posted by Nalin1

Isn't this interesting?

https://twitter.com/faheemyounus/sta...35578889052161



Is he putting COVID-19 in its place or building castles in the air?

I see nothing new or nothing extraordinary in what he is saying. Its already known that 85% or even more will get better without any medical intervention needed except for symptomatic treatment of fever. So there is nothing new in this. Infact, Delhi government was till sometime back insisting on home quarantine for similar asymptomatic cases (not sure if the home quarantine rule is still there).

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

Simple question, we read so many news items of Covid 19 deaths in Eurupe (Italy, France, Spain, Belgium , Germany etc) in Mar-Apr. When is the last time you read any Covid news report from any of these countries? Almost all of Europe opened up (including schools) after lockdowns in May. Yet European countries are now only seeing single-digits or low double digits average deaths per day.

I read it every day. I don't take notes, and wouldn't like to comment country by country, but I see a wide variance. USA leads the madness, closely followed by Britain (but yes, UK's numbers are improving). Other countries in Europe are getting to grips at various paces.

The simple fact is scientists/doctors have a much better understanding of the disease than in Apr-May ; we are already well on the path to defeat the virus.

Optimism acknowledged. Understanding is better, yes, but I think it is only just beginning.

And I am not stupid (at least I believe so) or careless. I understand that in India are NOT in same situation as in current Europe. I don't encourage people going out and socializing. But I am highly confident we will get there in India also

. Paris is getting together in cafes. London is still, at least, keeping people apart to the extent that the restaurants may not be financially viable. And the UK government is making contradictory statements on masks.

ps - The analogy of driving on the wrong side is not apt . The risk of an accidents happening is the same now, in 6 months time, or in 5 years time. In case of diseases, humans will understand the come up with a cure/vaccine or a manageable treatment, and so the risk from the disease decreases over time.

Humans already understand how not to have accidents.

Originally Posted by PearlJam

Did your analogy mean this:

(1) "The dangers of corona virus are exaggerated. Almost certainly nothing will happen to you, and if it does, it probably won't be too bad. Not everybody dies"

OR, does it mean something like this:

(2) "The dangers of not wearing a mask, and not following social distancing norms are exaggerated. Almost certainly nothing will happen to you, and if it does, it probably won't be too bad. Not everybody dies"

If you meant the 1st one, it is definitely true, not just largely true.

Fatality, yes. Even at my age (68) I probably wouldn't die. However, whilst it might be mild, it might also be as bad or worse than than anything such as malaria, chikungunya, dengue, etc... and the chances of catching it are hugely greater. (at least in most of India: I understand that Malaria is a much bigger problem elsewhere)

The corner cases are like media reporting "A marathon runner collapsed and died yesterday. Is marathon running safe?". Yes, it is safe most of the time, provided you train reasonably sensibly.

Oh yes, that stuff is daft.

If you meant the 2nd one, I agree with you that we need to take the guidelines seriously. No doubt about that. But, we can only do that upto a point. Social distancing is a luxury very few can afford. Economy is important too, as has been discussed to death in this topic, so I don't want to go into it again. I am all for strict policing and heavy fines, if somebody is spitting or caught without a mask. After all this, in spite of being careful, if you do get it, then it's tough luck. You tried your best to be sensible, but you still got it. Hopefully you will fall in the 99.5% and above people who will survive. Hopefully, you will not even realize it, and be asymptomatic. These %ages are lower than so many other risks we take everyday without even realizing it. Can we do anything more than this, other than be in a panicked/depressed state all the time?

Let us hope we can do better on the policing. and, of course, without violence!

Having mentioned malaria, I just got reminded that the Panama Canal could not be built until prevention was discovered. Twelve guys in a warehouse, all in hospital (my package did get here, by the way). I'm afraid that many returns to work are going to end up in the corona-test queue. However, there may be only one way to find out.

Originally Posted by DCEite

I see nothing new or nothing extraordinary in what he is saying.

Just advice for anyone mildly ill. Not really a contribution at all. The only thing is that, depending on the protocols locally in force, people do not need to rush to the hospital at the first maybe-maybe symptom. Rushing to the hospital might result in more people coming out with the virus than going in with it.

[Behemoth]

Ivermectin continues to a Hopeful candidate for the treatment of Covid. Here is a study published in US recently in which Ivermectin helped reduce the mortality rate by 52% in critical patients with severe Pulmonary disease. Request the doctors in the group to review this study and share their views (in Layman terms).
Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=3636557

[ATTACH=SSRN-id3636557.pdf]2031279[/ATTACH]

[sgiitk]

Originally Posted by Gansan

TN to experimentally give BCG vaccination to the 60 - 95 age group to mitigate the effects of Covid 19, I saw in the TV news this evening. They said it is as per recommendation of ICMR.

This is based on the theory that it gives some immunity. I am from a generation where BCG was not universal. This is true of all 60+ people. Really nobody can be sure.

I hope some vaccine emerges soon. We will be lucky even here. A virus mutates so fast. See the flu vaccine (popular in the US) has a different composition every year, based on what they consider the currently valid suite.

[srini1785]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

Simple question, we read so many news items of Covid 19 deaths in Eurupe (Italy, France, Spain, Belgium , Germany etc) in Mar-Apr. When is the last time you read any Covid news report from any of these countries? Almost all of Europe opened up (including schools) after lockdowns in May. Yet European countries are now only seeing single-digits or low double digits average deaths per day.

They simply let all vulnerable people die quickly to save the healthy. The virus disappeared with the dead. RIP.

[AnandB]

Another record number of cases yesterday.



Us Indians must have special genes for such low cases and deaths per 10 lakh population. Or maybe it is the under-reporting? Under-testing is clear to see.

[Gansan]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

This is based on the theory that it gives some immunity. I am from a generation where BCG was not universal. This is true of all 60+ people. Really nobody can be sure.

I hope some vaccine emerges soon. We will be lucky even here. A virus mutates so fast. See the flu vaccine (popular in the US) has a different composition every year, based on what they consider the currently valid suite.

I didn't receive it either. Those born from 1970 on wards would have received it. That was when it became universal in India. This comes under "repurposed vaccines" - vaccines invented for something, but may give limited immunity for something else. If not immunity, at least mitigate the effects of the disease.

But once a proper vaccine comes out, I feel subsequent mutations of the virus will be less of a problem. We get fresh vaccines every year for Influenza, H1N1 etc. This will be no different.

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

I hope some vaccine emerges soon. We will be lucky even here. A virus mutates so fast. See the flu vaccine (popular in the US) has a different composition every year, based on what they consider the currently valid suite.

Popular in GB too. At my last place of work, they arranged for someone to come and give to all who wanted it. It is indeed a new composition every year, but, given manufacture and distribution time, it is based on a forecast.

Originally Posted by srini1785

They simply let all vulnerable people die quickly to save the healthy. The virus disappeared with the dead. RIP.

That's called herd immunity! I'm also cynical enough to think that the death of elders is not unwelcome to the leadership of my own mother country.

Originally Posted by Gansan

But once a proper vaccine comes out, I feel subsequent mutations of the virus will be less of a problem. We get fresh vaccines every year for Influenza, H1N1 etc. This will be no different.

Again, it will be down to forecasting. The virus began as new-to-us, and its mutations may well keep the lead.