[DigitalOne]

Good concise update in New York Times on the status of the various treatments of Covid 19

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by doxinboy

Thank you so much for this well meaning and insightful post. I still cannot fathom people who are treating this as a hoax or similar to other flu.

Originally Posted by SS-Traveller

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2944635

A complete eye-opener, especially for people who think COVID-19 is just like the flu and nothing more!

A very queer new presentation of the disease is being reported from various parts of the world, where apparently perfectly healthy people are suddenly being affected by breathlessness, and are dying within a few hours, giving no chance to relatives / doctors to react and treat, especially ventilate.

Nobody (atleast I) said that it is "just like" the flu. Nobody said it was a hoax.

Also, I agree that it's a lot more painful when your near and dear ones are affected. We're not trying to trivialize that at all.

Cold analysis (heartless, if you may call it - but that's what policy makers see, unfortunately) calls for looking at the data available today, as per which, IFR is somewhere between same as flu (or maybe a bit lower), to about 3-4 times as flu. Definitely *not* 30 times of flu, as was initially predicted. Data is still coming in, so we've not heard the end of this yet. Note that *a lot more* would have been already infected and recovered. Do you really think that India's numbers today are only 1 million? Really? Last, we were testing 360000 a day. What if we were testing ten times of this? Initial sero survey confirms this. Let us wait for the next sero survey to complete.

BTW, Seasonal flu kills anywhere between 290000 to 650000 thousand a year! Every year, year after year. Source - WHO website.

Covid has killed a lot of people initially, when treatment options and strategies were still in the nascent stage. The above graph is comparing the incomplete seasonal flu numbers (we are not done with 2020 yet, winters are yet to arrive in the cold countries), with Covid-19 numbers (where a lot of deaths came in initially, but again, we're not done yet). So we need to wait for 2020 to end, to get the final picture. Yes, for all you know, Covid numbers might shoot up. But, we don't know yet. Data as per today doesn't say that.

Regarding seemingly healthy people just dying, I am sure the doctors can add more - but from what I read from multiple sources, most are usually due to some underlying undetected issues.

Originally Posted by shashant

Not sure why they have left out death by heart and cancer diseases.

Simply because it is inconvenient to the narrative

Heart diseases kill 17.9 million people a year.
Cancer kills 9.6 million people a year
(Source: WHO website)


Source: WHO website


A very big danger we face today is, if you need to visit the hospital due to any other critical reason (accidents/heart attack/kidney/etc), you are hardly going to get the healthcare and medical attention. Sadly, I am not sure about how many 1000s and more of deaths that would ultimately be. So yes, stay safe from *so many other things* that require you to be hospitalized.

[SS-Traveller]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

Nobody (atleast I) said that it is "just like" the flu. Nobody said it was a hoax.

You have not. Nor have I quoted you. But the doctor highlighted in the TOI article that you linked to in your earlier post, said so. Or did you miss reading through the full article, before mentioning that more such contrarian views are required?

I don't understand why TOI (or anyone else) needs to take the opinion of an orthopaedic surgeon about COVID-19 so seriously, and not seek the opinions of virologists, microbiologists, epidemiologists and specialists in preventive & social medicine.

[DCEite]

On a more positive side, news report say that Oxford will release its initial trial results of COVID-19 vaccine candidate on Lancet website today.

Some news, including this, say that the vaccine may be available as early as September if all goes well !

EDIT:A Question to doctors that i have been thinking of long. Can a person get vaccinated twice from different company vaccines ? Lets say that Bharat Biotech's vaccine is launched first and a person gets himself vaccinated with it. Can he, at a later time, as and when a newer (and potentially more effective) vaccine launched, "switch" to the new one ? Is it as simple as it sounds ?

[AltoLXI]

A sobering article in NY times on how over confidence, dependence on mathematical models, wrong judgement can wreak havoc on public health systems.

Source

If money could buy everything,

Wealth “massively hardens a society against epidemics,” he argued, and quality of life — food, housing, water and health care — was more effective than any medicine at stopping the diseases that ravaged the developing world.

Hubris indeed,

European Union checks of each country’s readiness had become rituals of self-congratulation. Mathematical models used to predict pandemic spreads — and to shape government policy — fed a false sense of security.

Modelers and their toys.

“‘Muddlers,’ we call them,” said Alex Donaldson, then head of Britain’s Pirbright Laboratory of the Institute for Animal Health. “In future epidemics the first thing that should be done is to lock up the predictive modelers.”

[DigitalOne]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

Initial sero survey confirms this. Let us wait for the next sero survey to complete.

For the last few days, the founder-chairman of Thyrocare has been tweeting actual data analysis from antibody tests done at Thyrocare centres. He has also posted pin code wise data of the antibody +ve results. Some of the areas (in Thane) are showing 47% positive results. Per him, 15% of Indians have been infected, that is, 18 crore cases!!.

Do please go through his twitter timeline to read some pretty interesting data and make your own assessments.

Originally Posted by PearlJam

Covid has killed a lot of people initially, when treatment options and strategies were still in the nascent stage.

When I posted the same a few pages back with respect to Europe data, there was a obnoxious reply stating to the effect that Europeans killed off their elderly population so their young could survive. And that reply post was 'liked' by a few. That was simply insulting all the doctors and scientists working hard to beat the virus.

The trend is the same across the world, from Japan to New York city - fatality rates are dropping with better treatments.

[DCEite]

Originally Posted by DigitalOne

For the last few days, the founder-chairman of Thyrocare has been tweeting actual data analysis from antibody tests done at Thyrocare centres. He has also posted pin code wise data of the antibody +ve results. Some of the areas (in Thane) are showing 47% positive results. Per him, 15% of Indians have been infected, that is, 18 crore cases!!.

Do please go through his twitter timeline to read some pretty interesting data and make your own assessments.

Copy pasting his relevant tweet here:



He makes some important points:

1) In India only 1/10,000 exposed die, high immunity.

What exactly is the root cause of Indian's higher immunity against this particular virus ? Is it related to the diet (Predominantly vegetarian and use of spices like Turmeric/Cinnamon/Clove etc. many of which have immuno-modulatory and/or anti-inflammatory properties) ? Or is it related to our genetic structure ?

2) In western rich countries 1/500 exposed die, poor immunity.

What makes the West have poor immunity to the virus ? A diet high in processed meats ? Or genetic structure ?

3) Data says after March 2021, vaccine will have less value.

How did he arrive at the figure of March 2021 and why would a vaccine have less value then ? Is it because of "herd immunity" ? But isn't it proved now that antibodies do not last more than 3 months ?

[PearlJam]

Originally Posted by SS-Traveller

You have not. Nor have I quoted you. But the doctor highlighted in the TOI article that you linked to in your earlier post, said so. Or did you miss reading through the full article, before mentioning that more such contrarian views are required?

I don't understand why TOI (or anyone else) needs to take the opinion of an orthopaedic surgeon about COVID-19 so seriously, and not seek the opinions of virologists, microbiologists, epidemiologists and specialists in preventive & social medicine.

To be precise, this is what he said, "Only about 4 per cent of the total infected are developing severe symptoms and need hospitalisation and care. For the rest, it’s just like common flu, which should be treated like it was done so far.".

I am not asking anyone to believe the numbers he is saying. The reason I posted the link, is to convey other diverse views of a part of the medical community itself. If we can discuss what different doctors think, this forum will be wiser. We can then form our own conclusions. We have already been constantly flooded with one-sided views from one majority side - i.e the side advocating panic, doom, and gloom. Fair enough. But the data so far doesn't justify it (we've discussed the data enough, so I don't want to repeat it). So now, can we also hear other sides and viewpoints?

The larger point we're trying to discuss here is, whether this thing is actually as bad as the media (and others) reports it to be. It doesn't matter whether he said "like flu", or "similar to flu", or "almost like flu". We are only looking at the larger takeaway.

So can we avoid clutching on to straws and "wordplay" here, and look at the larger points?

Also, if opinions of an experienced "orthopaedic surgeon" (arguably more qualified than so many "sensational authors" and "so called epidemiologists") is enough to annoy people, just because he has a different opinion, then I've reached a dead end here!

[Thad E Ginathom]

Originally Posted by PearlJam

Regarding seemingly healthy people just dying, I am sure the doctors can add more - but from what I read from multiple sources, most are usually due to some underlying undetected issues.

No. This has been referred to several times on this thread. You didn't read?

There's lots of references: this is just the first google result I got.

Also, if opinions of an experienced "orthopaedic surgeon" (arguably more qualified than so many "sensational authors" and "so called epidemiologists") is enough to annoy people, just because he has a different opinion, then I've reached a dead end here!

So, if you have to choose between a dental surgeon and an ortho, you'll pick the ortho? Joke. Sort of. But you are saying, here are two medically-qualified individuals: I'll listen to the one whose words you prefer to hear.

I'm not saying that we don't all have a right to our unqualified thoughts and opinions. We do.

[ABHI_1512]

Originally Posted by SS-Traveller

I don't understand why TOI (or anyone else) needs to take the opinion of an orthopaedic surgeon about COVID-19 so seriously, and not seek the opinions of virologists, microbiologists, epidemiologists and specialists in preventive & social medicine.

So agree with you here, unfortunately this part that you said is the bane of the country right now. From the very start, the opinions of the virologists, microbiologists, epidemiologists were never taken and the more fancied doctors of reputed institutions were at the forefront of all media interactions and which only added to the confusion.

That the media can concoct any story to garner attention these days is a given. While the seriousness of the virus is not lost on anyone, I though find the paranoia around the virus with half baked knowledge perilously close to creating panic amongst the minds of the general people and for that I find the media to blame.

[vibbs]

Originally Posted by DCEite

1) In India only 1/10,000 exposed die, high immunity.

What exactly is the root cause of Indian's higher immunity against this particular virus ? Is it related to the diet (Predominantly vegetarian and use of spices like Turmeric/Cinnamon/Clove etc. many of which have immuno-modulatory and/or anti-inflammatory properties) ? Or is it related to our genetic structure

Not just India right?

If you see, percentage of deaths to infected is similar in Pakistan and lesser in Bangladesh compared to India.

Malaysia another example less infections less death rate as well.

So while usage of spices could be a link, most of these countries are not really vegitarian.

Perhaps genetics. Perhaps viral strain.

No expert. Just an opinion.

[joslicx]

Originally Posted by ABHI_1512

From the very start, the opinions of the virologists, microbiologists, epidemiologists were never taken and the more fancied doctors of reputed institutions were at the forefront of all media interactions and which only added to the confusion.

Its not like all virologists, microbiologists, epidemiologists and immunologists have the exact same opinion! in fact there can be multitude of opinions and I think mostly the govt has been doing what a majority of them have been advocating. Test, trace, isolation of the infected, and lockdown of the general population has been tried in last few months (the first three have been scaled up 100 fold or so). What else could have been done. A country with very limited means could have done only so much. I think the general population should also accept some blame, even now many refuse to maintain social distancing and using protection. How much more can a govt do.

Within the epidemiologist community there is no one opinion about this virus. For example, just follow what Dr. John Ioannaidis has been saying last few months. He is up there at the top as far as reputation is concerned, the Einstein of that world or something like that. The WHO did not even promote any masks or any travel bans to infected regions even in late March timeframe.

https://usa.greekreporter.com/2020/0...oannidis-says/

Leading epidemiologist Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University estimates that about 150-300 million or more people have already been infected by COVID-19 around the world, far more than the 10 million documented cases.

In an interview with Greek Reporter, the Greek American scientist warns, however, that the draconian lockdowns imposed in many countries may have the opposite effect of what was intended. “Globally, the lockdown measures have increased the number of people at risk of starvation to 1.1 billion, and they are putting at risk millions of lives,” he says.

[govigov]

A lancet journal showing the risk factors between states

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...300-4/fulltext

[ABHI_1512]

Originally Posted by joslicx

Its not like all virologists, microbiologists, epidemiologists and immunologists have the exact same opinion! in fact there can be multitude of opinions and I think mostly the govt has been doing what a majority of them have been advocating. Test, trace, isolation of the infected, and lockdown of the general population has been tried in last few months (the first three have been scaled up 100 fold or so). What else could have been done. A country with very limited means could have done only so much. I think the general population should also accept some blame, even now many refuse to maintain social distancing and using protection. How much more can a govt do.

The views of all virologists, epidemiologists or microbiologists might not be same but they were the persons to talk to at the start of the pandemic. The government was late in responding and talking with the relevant people and which i had previously stated in another (now closed thread) as well with ample documentation, please go through the link and then come to your own conclusion. My grouse is as much as the government as with the role of the media in fanning the fear factor. If the media would have told the actual picture instead of fear mongering then the present state of the hospitals would have been lot more different!

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shift...ml#post4815423 (India on full lockdown. Edit: Now extended with relaxations till June 30, 2020)

[akshaymahajan]

Does anyone here have details on how to go about getting a Covid test in Bangalore? The information on https://covid19cc.nic.in/ICMR/Citizen/CCList.aspx doesnt seem to be correct. Called Dr lal pathlabs since they were on the list but they dont offer the Covid tests in Bangalore

Also read an article about Ola tying up to do rapid tests but apart from the one article, cant find any more details.